Liberalization of Capital Flows and Services European Economic Integration Oldřich Dědek Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University Terminological notes Capital Service Economic concept: factor of production (along with labour and land) Free movement for capital: abolition of all controls on financial transactions registered on the balance-of-payments‘ capital account (now called financial account) – in contrast with transactions registered on the balance-of-payments‘ current account Capital account transactions cover much wider range of financial flows than those linked solely to productive purposes (foreign direct investment) Economic concept: intangible asset offered for purchase by a service provider at a given price – in contrast with tangible assets called goods Freedom for services: abolition of all controls that discriminate nonresidents in providing services in host countries Blurred dividing line between free movement of capital and liberalization of financial services Home vs. host country Home country: A state in which the business organization with crossborder operations is headquartered Host country: A state in which the business organization with crossborder operations carries out its activities 2 Division of income between labour and capital C .. amount of capital P P .. price paid for capital (interest rate) b MPC a C MPC … marginal product of capital a + b … value of total production a … income for capital b … income for labour (residual variable) 3 Effects of capital market integration H … Home MPCH Transfer of capital MPCF F … Foreign FM ... Free market PH PFM PFM PF CFM CH CF Capital inflow into home economy pushes interest rates down: lower income for domestic capital is more than compensated by higher income for labour Capital outflow from foreign economy pushes interest rates up: lower income for labour is more than compensated by higher income for capital (including repatriated profits) 4 Classification of capital controls (1) Capital controls encompass a wide range of diversified and often country-specific measures Administrative or direct controls Capital transactions are restricted by outright prohibitions Areas of control: currency convertibility, purchases of government securities, foreign holdings of pension funds, credit arrangements, bank deposits, reinvestment requirements on profits, mandatory repatriation of export earnings Market-based or indirect controls Capital transactions are discouraged by making them more costly Examples: non-interest-bearing deposits, discriminatory taxation, dual exchange rates for current and capital transactions 5 Classification of capital controls (2) Long-term vs. short-term capital flows Inflow vs. outflow of capital Traditional view about the difference between “safe capital“ (FDI) and “hot money“ (portfolio investment) Caveats: advanced techniques of financial management, interdependences between short-term and long-term financial operations, artificial dividing lines between safe and hot money Numerous examples of sudden stops: „In crisis all money is hot“ Inclination to benevolent treatment of capital inflows while raising barriers to capital outflows Objectives: preserving savings for domestic use, protection of balance of payment against hot money Dutch disease: troubles arising from excessive capital inflows Easier outflows stimulate inflows Residents vs. non-residents Practice of imposing stricter controls on residents Objectives: keeping control over domestic assets, protection of strategic industries, national safety and self-sufficiency 6 Pressures to deregulate capital controls General tendency towards deregulation of national financial markets by 1980s Technical innovations in telecommunications Innovations in financial instruments and emergence of financial conglomerates Complex nature of regulation Competitive pressure from unregulated off-shore markets Declining efficiency of capital restrictions Lower information and transaction costs Increased speed of capital movement Simpler evasion of controls Bureaucratic intrusion into business decisions High cost of enforcing effective regulation Measuring efficiency of capital controls Interest rate differentials between domestic and offshore financial markets Comparison of capital flows between liberalized and non-liberalized economies 7 Liberalization of capital flows in EU Rome Treaty (1958) Directives 1960 – 1962 Fully free (linked to free movement of goods and employees): foreign direct investment, short-term trade credits, repatriation of wages and investment, purchase of real estate, purchase of quoted stock, etc. Partly free: issuance and placement of shares on national exchanges, non-resident holdings of shares by foreigners, long-term trade credits, etc. No commitment to liberalise: opening bank accounts, purchases of government bonds, etc. Two-speed liberalization Principle of free movement of capital Ban on national discrimination (equal treatment on national basis) Right to impose controls in case of balance of payments difficulties (securing autonomous monetary policy and exchange rate stability) Fast track: Belgium, Germany, Netherlands, UK Slow track: France, Italy, Spain Directive 1988 (in tandem with Single European Act) Complete elimination of capital controls between MS and with third countries by the end of 1992 Safeguard clause: possibility to reintroduce certain controls in case of threat to the monetary and exchange rate stability (for maximum of six months and with Commission‘s approval) 8 Reimposition of controls during crisis period Iceland introduced some controls in October 2008 Defence against disruptive capital outflows and excessive exchange rate depreciation Areas of controls: repatriation of profits and investments, outward foreign investment, purchases of foreign currency Capital controls remained in force after 5 years since their adoption Capital controls in Cyprus Maximum cash withdrawal of 300 € per day Maximum payments by a Cypriot credit or debit card abroad of 5,000 € per month Maximum transfers of cash abroad totalling 1,000 € Maximum non-cash transfers abroad by an individual totalling 5,000 € per month Maximum non-cash transfers by a company to abroad of 5,000 € daily; higher transfers must be approved by the central bank Source: EU News Monthly Journal, April 2013 9 Characteristics of service sector High diversity Economic importance Finance: banking, insurance, securities, consulting, etc. Network: telecommunication, transport, energy, broadcasting, postal services, etc. Retail: tourism, entertainment, advertising, customer services, gambling, etc. Social: health, security, education, childcare, work agencies, state administration, etc. Services account for 70 % of EU economic activity and 70 % of EU employment Services account for only 20 % of intra EU cross border trade (Monti Report 2010) Potentially high gains from opening up national markets Slow progress in liberalization Complex nature of regulation in service sector (natural monopolies, information asymmetries, special features of financial services) Tailor-made approaches to individual segments of service sector instead of some general liberalization formula 10 Reasons to regulate services Information asymmetries Imperfect competition Low degree of contestability of market implies low threat of potential competition (typical for network services) Reasons: high economies of scale, high sunk costs Systemic risk in banking industry They arise when quality of the service cannot be credibly assessed by consumers Moral hazard: providers of services may earn higher profits by lowering quality below expected standards Adverse selection: providers of higher quality goods are pushed out of market Market solutions can be time-consuming and inefficient (agreed minimum standards, standardised contracts, build-up of reputation, promotion of trademarks, grievance procedures) Bank run may undermine credibility of healthy financial institutions (contagion effect) Owners’ capital represents only a small fraction of total liabilities Social considerations High share in employment (particularly of women), high share of SMEs, weak labour unions, etc. 11 Attributes of free movement of services Rome Treaty called for two types of freedoms Right to provide services Right to set up establishment Any company of a MS can provide services in other MS without having to set up an office there Any company from one MS may set up an establishment in another MS on the same conditions as nationals of the other MS Typical restrictions on free trade in services Authorization procedures Local content rules Reserving a certain share of the market for home producers Recognition of qualification and experience Government procurement Requirements with regard to labour qualifications Technical requirements and standards Exchange controls Subsidies to domestic service providers 12 Service Directive Commission‘s effort to create an effective single market in the service sector (directive adopted in December 2006) Unsuccessful attempt to introduce the country of origin principle Adopted principles If a service operator is operating legally in one MS it could offer its services freely in others Fears of „Polish plumber“ – widespread concerns about influx of lowpaid workers from Central and Eastern Europe Member states can apply restrictions that are non-discriminatory, necessary and proportionate considering protection of public safety, social security, health and environment One-stop shop: one place for granting permits for doing business in each member state Mutual evaluation: cooperation of national authorities in supervising service operators backed by an electronic system for the exchange of information Some harmonization of national rules Services excluded from the Directive and covered by special legislation Financial services, telecommunications, transport, broadcasting, recognition of professional qualifications Posted workers (employees working for a time in a MS other than the country in which work is normally carried out) 13 Liberalisation of banking industry Directive 1973 First Banking Directive 1977 Home country principle: home country of the parent bank is primarily responsible for supervising the bank’s activities in other EU countries Many loopholes in division of responsibilities between supervision of home and host countries Second Banking Directive 1989 Equal treatment: all foreign banks operating in one country are subject to the same non-discriminatory regulation and supervision as local banks Absence of any coordination among national supervisors, widespread capital controls impaired competition from foreign banks Single passport: any bank licensed in an EU country can: a) establish branches or supply cross-border financial services in the other country without further authorisation, b) open subsidiaries on the same conditions as nationals of the host state Host country can impose specific regulation if they are deemed to be in the public interest Financial Services Action Plan 1999 (FSAP) Objective: full integration in banking and capital markets by 2005 Limited progress 14 Financial trilemma Financial stability Financial integration Vicious circle between sovereigns and banks National financial policy Problems in banking sector problems in government finances (sharp increase in borrowing costs in anticipation of costly rescue programmes) Problems in government finances problems in banking sector (banks are major holders of downgraded government bonds, capital outflow in anticipation of sovereign crisis paralyzes interbank money market) Negative influence of national-based banking regulation on fragmentation of financial markets during crisis period 15 Four pillars of banking union Single rulebook Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) Unified supervisory framework in care of ECB – effective since Novermber 2014 Compulsory for Euro Area MS and open to non-euro MS ECB will directly supervise significant banks and banks drawing financial support from EU rescue funds ECB will monitor supervision of national authorities to ensure consistent application of supervisory standards Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM) Single set of supervisory rules across the single market covering all financial institutions and products Responsible authorities: EBA (banks), ESMA (capital markets, rating agencies), EIOPA (insurance) EU-wide framework for resolution of banks in difficulties Bail-in mechanism: shareholders and other investors into bank capital will bear losses first, protection of insured deposits (up to € 100 000) Single Resolution Fund – contributions paid by SSM member banks, gradual mutualisation of national compartments Financial backstop: financial assistance to banks from public funding as last resort measure (direct recapitalization from ESM) Unified system of deposit insurance Agreement about a common network of national deposit guarantee schemes (no supranational arrangement envisaged so far) 16