Fixed Income Securities Bonds & Its Diversified Dimensions 1 Real vs. Financial Assets Real Assets have physical characteristics that determine the value of the asset – Size, Shape, Material, Color, etc. – Price based on the benefits of the physical characteristics Financial Assets physical characteristics are inconsequential – Value based on claim to promised or anticipated cash flows – TVM concepts used to price financial assets The U.S. Bond Market U.S. Treasury is the world’s single largest borrower—also has the most liquid market—an informal OTC market. 3 Corporate Bonds in the U.S. Market for corporate bonds is less liquid than market for U.S. Treasuries – IPOs for bonds are underwritten by investment banking firms Largest organized secondary bond market is NYSE – Uses matrix prices for most of the bonds listed on its Automated Bond System (ABS) • Based on price quotes for similar bonds (in terms of coupon rate, maturity, quality rating, call provisions) 4 Bond Markets Debt Issuers U.S. government conducts regularly scheduled auctions for Treasury securities. Underwriter Investors U.S. government U.S. Treasury Governments, pensions, commercial banks, insurance companies, mutual funds, foreigners, households Federal government agencies Investment banks Governments, pensions, commercial banks, insurance companies, mutual funds, foreigners, households Municipalities Commercial and investment banks Governments, commercial banks, insurance companies, mutual funds, foreigners, households Corporations Investment banks Pensions, commercial banks, insurance companies, mutual funds, foreigners, households Home buyers, commercial real estate developers Mortgage banks & pool operators Pensions, commercial banks, insurance companies, REITs Foreign governments Investment banks Pensions, mutual funds, foreigners, households Foreign corporations Investment banks Pensions, commercial banks, insurance companies, mutual funds, foreigners, households 5 Sectors of the Industrialized World’s Bond Markets In almost every country, the federal government is that country’s largest debt issuer Corporate sector for Japan, Italy and Germany is relatively small compared to their overall bond markets – Due to custom of borrowing from a bank vs. issuing bonds 6 International Bonds Represent a rapidly growing category – Reflects willingness of borrowers to borrow across borders International bond investors face two types of political risk – Repatriation-of-funds risk • A government may block payments of principal or interest – Sovereign risk • A government may refuse to honor its debts 7 International Bonds Can be organized into the following categories – Domestic bonds • Issued by a local borrower and denominated in local currency – Foreign bonds • Issued in one country and denominated in that country’s currency by a bond issuer from another country – Eurobonds • Any bond not issued in a domestic market regardless of its currency denomination and the issuer’s nationality 8 Bearer Bonds Vs. Registered Bonds Registered bonds—send coupon checks to registered bond owners Bearer bonds—have no list of registered owners – Investor must submit a dated coupon to a bank to receive coupon payments • Many Eurodollar bonds are of this type • Owner’s identity is unknown 9 Accrued Interest Market price of bond (or its clean price) is: Price bond Coupon Coupon 1 k 1 k 1 1 2 2 Present Value of Coupon Payments Coupon 1 k T T Par 1 k T T Present Value of Par Bonds pay coupon payments periodically Annually, semi-annually, quarterly, etc. When a bond is purchased on a day between its scheduled interest payment, buyer must pay seller for accrued interest Interest that has been earned but not yet paid by issuer 10 Compounding Conventions The length of time between coupon payments impacts bonds’ yields and prices 11 Bonds Pricing Bond Price = Coupon X PVIFA + Par Value X PVIF 12 Yield-to-Maturity (YTM): A First Look A simple approximation of yield-to-maturity is: Par - Current Price Years until maturity Non compounded YTM Coupon Rate Current Price Rate of Cash Flow Rate of price appreciation or depreciation 13 Bond Basics, II. Two basic yield measures for a bond are its coupon rate and its current yield. Annual coupon Coupon rate Par value Annual coupon Current yield Bond price Compounded YTM YTM defined as the discount rate equating the present value of a bond’s future cash flows to its current market price – For bonds paying coupon payments semiannually, the correct formula is: Present Coupon1 2 Coupon 2 2 1 2 Value 1 YTM 2 1 YTM 2 Coupon 2T 2 1 YTM 2 T Par 2T 1 YTM 2 • The YTM is identical to IRR 15 Example: Comparing a Bond’s Conventional and Effective YTM Given information – – – – Par value: $100 Coupon rate: 10% (semi-annual) Time to maturity: 10 years Purchase price: $106.59 Using the conventional YTM formula, we calculate a YTM of 8.89% $106.59 $10 2 $10 2 1 0.089873 2 1 0.089873 2 1 2 $10 2 $100 1 0.089873 2 20 16 Conditions Required to Earn a Bond’s Expected YTM A bond’s computed YTM will only actually be earned if: – The bond is held to maturity – The bond issuer does not default in the timing or amount of scheduled payments – All the cash flows are immediately reinvested to earn the bond’s YTM 17 Inverse Relationship Between a Bond’s Price and YTM The price and YTM of a bond move inversely NOTE: Price-yield curves are convex to the origin. 18 Interest Rate Risk The value of the 5% bond falls as interest rates 1,200 rise Bond price ($) 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 0 2 4 6 8 10 Interest rate (%) 12 14 16 Interest Rate Risk and Time to Maturity Bond values ($) 2,000 $1,768.62 30-year bond Time to Maturity 1,500 Interest rate 5% $1,047.62 1,000 1-year bond $916.67 500 $1,768.62 10 1,000.00 1,000.00 15 956.52 671.70 20 916.67 502.11 Interest rates (%) 10 15 30 years $1,047.62 $502.11 5 1 year 20 Value of a Bond with a 10% Coupon Rate for Different Interest Rates and Maturities Other Measures of Bonds’ Yields Yield-to-call (YTC) – A bond issuer may call a bond before its original maturity date • Need to calculate the bond’s YTC – Similar to YTM, except replace T as the time-tocall rather than time-to-maturity 21 International Bond Index Statistics U.S. $ Return No single bond investment appears to be the most or least risky. U.K. Pound SD Return SD Hong Kong $ Return SD German Mark Return SD Australia 8.5% 15.5% 9.9% 18.3% 9.5% 16.4% 5.0% 20.2% Belgium 11.6 17.2 13.0 14.7 12.7 16.2 8.1 8.6 Canada 9.3 10.4 10.7 19.3 10.3 13.2 5.8 17.0 France 10.8 15.6 12.2 15.3 11.8 15.6 7.2 12.2 Germany 12.0 14.9 13.4 16.7 13.0 13.4 8.4 8.4 Japan 12.2 17.5 13.7 18.4 13.3 18.3 8.7 17.3 Netherlands 11.7 14.2 13.1 15.8 12.7 14.0 8.1 8.2 Switzerland 10.2 17.1 11.6 16.8 11.2 16.0 6.7 9.8 U.K. 10.2 22.3 11.6 17.2 11.6 17.2 11.3 23.4 U.S. 9.3 12.2 10.6 21.3 10.3 14.7 5.8 16.8 22 Actively Managing International Bond Investments Active international bond investors can use different approaches: – Political analysts begin with a top-down approach and analyze sovereign risks, etc. – Macro-economists study macro factors (income, employment, etc.) to determine which nations are economically strong – Monetary economists forecast a nation’s level and structure of market interest rates by analyzing central bank and their policies, etc. – Industry analysts analyze financial data from different industries – Security analysts have a bottom-up approach—focus on bond issuer’s financial conditions, protective provisions, etc. 23 The Bottom Line Governments are the largest borrowers in the world Most rapid growth occurring in Eurobond market – Unregulated and untaxed Some countries publish clean bond prices while others publish dirty prices which includes accrued interest Day counting conventions differ across countries YTM calculations methods also differ across countries 24 Bond Risk Hierarchy Common Stock Preferred Stock More Risk Subordinated Debentures Senior Debentures 2nd Mortgage Bonds 1st Mortgage Bonds Less Risk Higher Priority of Claim Lower 25 The Bottom Line If a bond’s cash flows are not invested at the bond’s YTM the investor will not earn the YTM Other yield measures exist – Holding period return – Current yield – Yield to call 26