Michael St. Denis, D.Env., Joe Roeschen - Revecorp Inc. I/M Solutions May 20 – 24, 2012 Sacramento, California To estimate the cost effectiveness of a high evaporative emitter identification and repair program in Denver by combining remote sensing data (used for high emitter identification), evaporative emission rates from MOVES, on-road hydrocarbon emissions distributions and repair data Revecorp Inc. The field data used in this study came from a cooperative effort of US EPA, Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, Eastern Research Group, Envirotest, Applied Analysis, many others This analysis was sponsored by Envirotest This presentation has not be reviewed by any of the above and is not endorsed by any of the above The opinions expressed are solely those of Revecorp Revecorp Inc. It is estimated that approximately half of all mobile source hydrocarbon emissions are from evaporative sources Few I/M programs test for evaporative emissions (besides gas cap and OBDII) and therefore may not identify gross leakers Current evaporative testing methods (purge and pressure testing) are difficult, intrusive, expensive Few I/M programs performing these checks, failure rates are low for pressure testing in CA and not performed on 1996+ vehicles Can you find and repair these vehicles cost effectively? Identify – Test – Repair - Retest Revecorp Inc. Study data are from work conducted over two summers in Colorado at an Air Care Colorado test station and on an adjacent highway Remote Sensing was used to screen vehicles for high evaporative emissions Revecorp Inc. 160 1600 140 1400 120 1200 80 800 60 600 HC 400 CO2 40 20 200 0 0 2 CO % cm CO2 % cm 100 1000 7 12 17 22 27 Plume Sample # 32 37 42 47 0.4 160 0.4 140 0.3 120 0.3 100 0.2 80 0.2 CO 60 CO2 0.1 40 0.1 20 0.0 0 2 7 12 17 22 27 Plume Sample # 32 37 42 47 CO2 % cm HC ppm cm 1800 Study data are from work conducted over two summers in Colorado at an Air Care Colorado test station and on an adjacent highway Remote Sensing was used to screen vehicles for high evaporative emissions A representative sample of screened vehicles were tested for evaporative emissions in a portable SHED (g/15 min) Revecorp Inc. Study data are from work conducted over two summers in Colorado at an Air Care Colorado test station and on an adjacent highway Remote Sensing was used to screen vehicles for high evaporative emissions A representative sample of screened vehicles were tested for evaporative emissions in a portable SHED (g/15 min) Remote Sensing performed ▪ Two measurements each on road at approximately 34 and 55 mph ▪ Three measurements at entrance gate at approximately 12 mph Higher emitters were sent out for repair: ▪ Year 1 – Local repair shops performed repairs ▪ Year 2 – CDPHE performed repairs and additional SHED testing Retest on-road and in P-SHED Revecorp Inc. Repairs made by local shops and CDPHE had nearly identical repair reductions and repair costs Difference in repair effectiveness between 1997-/1998+ In general - repairs were inexpensive and effective Revecorp Inc. Average remote sensing speed in Colorado is 44 mph Averaged capture rates for 34 and 55 mph for gross liquid leakers ~ 66% Percent of Group Emissions Identified 100% % of Hot Soak Emissions Identified by RSD 90% 12 mph 80% 70% 34 mph 60% 50% 40% 55 mph 30% 20% 10% 0% 0.0 - 0.2 grams 0.2 - 1.0 grams 1.0 - 4.0 grams 4.0 - 8.0 grams >8 grams (GLLs) 15-Minute Hot Soak Groups Revecorp Inc. Used MOVES to model evaporative emissions for the metro Denver fleet, by model year for June 2010 – average emissions by model year Used 9 million on-road remote sensing measurements from Denver to determine the distribution of on-road fleet population by model year (1981 to 2010) and on-road HC emissions by model year (100 bins for each model year) Revecorp Inc. Revecorp Inc. Used MOVES to model evaporative emissions for the metro Denver fleet, by model year for June 2010 – average emissions by model year Used 9 million on-road remote sensing measurements from Denver to determine the distribution of on-road fleet population by model year (1981 to 2010) and on-road HC emissions by model year (100 bins for each model year) Normalized each model years emissions rates Revecorp Inc. Revecorp Inc. Used MOVES to model evaporative emissions for the metro Denver fleet, by model year for June 2010 – average emissions by model year Used 9 million on-road remote sensing measurements from Denver to determine the distribution of on-road fleet population by model year (1981 to 2010) and on-road HC emissions by model year (100 bins for each model year) Normalized each model years emissions rates Applied the average modeled emission rate for each model year to the distributions of on-road emissions by model year to develop by model year distributions of evaporative HC emissions Multiplied the emissions rates by the population for each 1/3000 of the fleet to get it’s overall emissions contribution: Average emission rate x fraction x population = contribution Revecorp Inc. Determined the emissions for the whole fleet – tons/year Determined the emissions of highest emitters - top 0.5%, 1%, 2%, 4%, 6%, 8%, 10% of the fleet = EX% Multiplied by the identification rate = 66% Multiplied by the repair effectiveness rate by model year group (1997 and older = 88.2%, 1998 and newer = 98.7%) = EXReduced Multiplied the number of vehicles “repaired” by the average cost of repair = $353 Cost effectiveness = Total cost / EXReduced Revecorp Inc. Assume repairs last three years In Colorado, identification is no cost since there is an existing Remote Sensing Program which clean screens vehicles – revenue could be used to pay for repairs The use of Remote Sensing to identify high evaporative emitters for repair and the repair of these vehicles appears to be a cost effective emissions control strategy Revecorp Inc. Contact: Revecorp Inc. Michael St. Denis 5732 Lonetree Blvd Rocklin, CA 95765 (916) 786-1006 www.Revecorp.com Revecorp Inc.