The Future of the Global Workplace
Dr Peter Saul
www.petersaul.com.au
Presentation to
Diversity Council Australia’s
Annual Conference on Diversity
22 November 2007
Melbourne
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Overview
 How can we most profitably think about the topic?
 Work, workers and workplaces aren’t what they used to be or
where they used to be.
 … and things are still changing, so the future will be different
again.
 How might the HR function evolve in the light of all these
changes?
 What role will diversity play in successful organisations?
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LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE:
Probable shapers of the 10-20 year future
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Polarised distribution of wealth
Globalisation
Diversity, complexity
New technologies: e.g. genomics, nanotechnology
Information and communications technology
Disintermediation
Legislation
Corporate governance structures
Population demographics
Natural environment; e.g. climate change
Risk, uncertainty, lack of meaning
Pandemics; e.g. bird flu
Wars, terrorism
Search for simplicity, new values, meaning
Growth in experience economy
Questioning of Western capitalism
Technology
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10 Consumer Trends for 2006+
 ANXIETY - expect a boom in escapism and fantasy
 CONNECTEDNESS - faster, smaller, more intelligent world where events will be
experienced by more people
 SPEEDING-UP - blurring of work and home; memory loss, increased stress and
mental illness
 MOBILITY - people want to access anything , any time, anywhere
 CONVERGENCE - blurring of whole industries, markets and brands
 PRIVACY - potentially a more truthful and trusting society OR people adopt
multiple personalities and fake IDs
 NOSTALGIA - escape to the past; increased desire for face-to-face contact
 LOCALISATION - more local trade alliances; the re-emergence of city states;
the Balkanisation of Europe
 AUTHENTICITY - growing interest in how things are made; search for real
products and experiences
 HAPPINESS - people increasingly value time, well-being and sustainability
ahead of more money and materialism
Source: www.nowandnext.com
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Scanning the Environment for Patterns of Weak Signals
Sydney
households have
average net worth
37% higher than
rest of Australia
Global survey of
consumer and retailing
companies: greatest
threats over next 15
years are low-cost
competition; decreasing
customer loyalty
Technical
Almost a billion
new consumers
will enter markets
in emerging
economies
Social
No developed
country has
fertility rate
above
replacement
level
20% of Aust.
adult population
has downshifted
in past 10 years
% Aust. population
over age 65 will
increase from 13%
in 2005 to 24% in
2025
Economic
India’s population will
grow by 260 million by
2025; 5 times the increase
in the US; and twice that
in China
ABS predicts,
childless couples
will outnumber
those with
children by 2010
In 2005, one in six
countries in the
world faced food
shortages because
of severe droughts
due to global
warming
30% of net new
jobs created
between 2005 and
2020 will be in
India; 14% in China
65 per cent of
young
Australians will
be overweight or
obese by 2020
Environmental
The 33 million
university educated
young professionals
in developing
countries is twice
that in developed
world
Political
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DIFFERENT FUTURE SCENARIOS REQUIRE
DIFFERENT AUSTRALIAN WORKFORCES
“FIRST GLOBAL NATION”
“SOUND THE RETREAT!”
Australia capitalises on
globalisation; promotes its
internal diversity and ethnic
tolerance; and boosts homegrown innovation and industry
capability
Globalisation stalls as political
and social structures are not
ready; trade barriers and
nationalism re-emerge; we
depend on bilateral national and
commercial relationships
“BRAVE OLD WORLD”
“GREEN IS GOLD”
Complacent, dependent on
agriculture, tourism, “new”
manufacturing and some
biotech; clever people and
companies move overseas
We emerge from the growing
imperative to protect the natural
environment as a leading
innovator of global environmental
management
Source: Australian Business Foundation “Alternative Futures: Scenarios for Business in
Australia to the Year 2015” Sept 1999
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Why care about the global workforce?
“The working age population [in Australia]
currently grows by 170,000 people a year.
But trends already in place will see the
working age population grow by just
125,000 for the entire decade of the
2020s…”
“Population Ageing and the Economy”
by Access Economics, Jan 2001, p.3
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Overview of Supply and Demand Factors Shaping
the Future Global Workforce
Industry
Structure
Types of
Organisation
Govt.
Policies
Future
Workforce
Population
Demographics
Consumer
Preferences
Social
Values
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The Future Global Workforce:
A Function of Supply and Demand
SUPPLY FORCES
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Population demographics
Government policies influencing fertility rates
Education and health policies and infrastructure
Immigration flows
Climate change
DEMAND FORCES
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Social/consumer values
Rate and nature of economic development
Income levels (purchasing power)
Technology
Nature of work organisation
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Identifying The Relevant Global Workforce
Those able to
move (in time)
Those attracted to your
industry, organisation, location
Those reached by recruitment process
Those with desired skills and attributes
Global population of working age
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The BRICs are Changing Everything
 The entry of Brazil, Russia, India and China into the global market
economy has doubled the size of the global workforce and dramatically
changed its demographic profile (many more younger workers).
 The halving of the capital/labour ratio increased the power of capital as
many more workers competed to work with the world’s capital.
 The level of wealth inequality in these countries has increased
dramatically.
 As BRIC firms move up the value chain they will require more highly
skilled workers and will become global competitors for the West’s best
knowledge workers. Their improving social infrastructure will add to
their competitiveness. Their huge foreign reserves will also enable them
to acquire skills through corporate acquisitions.
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China and India: Some Workforce Dynamics
 The US currently graduates around 137,000 engineers each
year. China graduates 351,000 and India 112,000 (from
comparable curricula).
 Thousands of talented Chinese and Indians now go overseas to
study in Western universities leaving a shortage of skills at
home and this (plus rapid economic growth) is driving up
salaries.
 China and India are starting to buy foreign companies to get
access to the skills they need.
 Survey shows that middle management salaries will rise by
16% in India and 9% in China this year. Increasing salaries (and
better job opportunities) are starting to entice Chinese and
Indians back to jobs in their home countries.
Source: “Asian giants have quantity not quality”, Australian Financial Review,
20 August 2007, p. 23
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Big picture demographics:
Global population (millions)
2500
2367
■
2004
■
2050
1941
2000
1628
1520
1500
1437
1301
1087
1000
885
728
778
668
549
500
457
326
0
As ia &
Oce ania
China
India
Afr ica
Eur ope
Latin
Nor th
Am e r ica Am e r ica
Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2004
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Global population by age (%)
35
30
■
under
age 15
■
age 65
and over
33
N.B. Data are for 2004
25
20
17
15
15
10
5
5
0
More developed
countries
Less developed
countries
About 90% of the growth in world population to 2050 will occur in developing
countries in Africa and Asia (including China and India)
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Global population aged 65 and over (%)
30
28
■
■
2007
■
2025
2050
25
21
21
20
16
19
19
18
18
15
15
12
10
10
10
6
10
7
6
5
4
3
0
Eur ope
Nor th
Am e r ica
Oce ania
Latin
Am e r ica
As ia
Afr ica
Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2007
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Population aged 65 and over
Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2007
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Australia’s ageing population (%)
24
25
■
2000
■
2025
■
2050
21
20
20
18
16
15
12
10
5
0
Aged under 15
Aged 65 and over
United Nations “World Population Prospects” (2006) http://esa.un.org/unpp
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How to Make Sense of the Changing Workplace?
Employee
Engagement
Employability
vs. Job
Security
Changing IR
Legislation
Collaborative
Decision
Making
Knowledge
Workers
Valued
Two Speed
Economy
Physical &
Data
Security
Sustainability
Multiple,
Self-Directed
Careers
Youth
Workers
Work/Life
Balance
24/7/365
Anytime,
anywhere
New
Retirement
Options
Corporate
Social
Responsibility
Diversity in
the
Workforce
Global
Competition +
China, India
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Shifts That Are Re-shaping Organisations and Work
FROM
Local markets, operations
Manufacturing, clerical work
Hierarchy
Intermediaries; face-to-face
Obedience to formal authority
Stability, efficiency, control
Full time job
Shareholder value
Work done by employees
Fixed work location
Management prerogative
Loyal service
White, young workforce
Financial performance
“Get a job”
TO
Global markets, operations
Service, knowledge work
Networks
Direct access,virtual relationship
Questioning of formal authority
Change, creativity, flexibility, order
Part-time and project work
Stakeholder value
Work done by many contributors
Diverse work locations
Social licence
Marketable knowledge, skills
Diverse, ageing workforce
Multiple bottom lines
“Get a life”
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The changing locus of employment in Australia
Business Size
No. of
Businesses
Employment
(end June)
Industry Value
Added ($m)
(excl. Govt &
Finance/Insurance)
Small
(1-19 persons)
773,953
2,341,180
169,805
Medium
(20-199)
37,202
1,780,984
126,732
Large
(200 and over)
2,945
2,626,428
237,462
Non-employing
1,551,112
1,360,922
62,705
TOTAL
2,365,213
8,109,513
596,704
Source: ABS 8155.0, Section 2.1, Data for 2004-05
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Emerging Organisational Paradigms on “the Edge”
 STAKEHOLDER BASED CORPORATE GOVERNANCE PROCESSES
 TERRORIST ORGANISATIONS SUCH AS AL-QAEDA
 MULTI-AGENCY NETWORKS EMERGING TO FIGHT GLOBAL HEALTH
THREATS SUCH AS SARS
 SELF-ORGANISING COMMUNITIES CREATING OPEN SOURCE
SOFTWARE SUCH AS LINUX; AND DATABASES SUCH AS WIKIPEDIA
 GOVERNMENT POLICY MAKING AND DELIVERY IN A WORLD OF
INCREASING DEMANDS AND SHRINKING RESOURCES
 IN THE EMERGING “KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY”
N.B. The network is the central organisational form in all of these
emerging arenas of activity
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MIT Scenarios Forecast Emergence of Networks
in 21st Century
MIT Initiative on Inventing the Organizations of the 21st
Century (January 1997) facilitated by Peter Schwartz of
the Global Business Network:http://ccs.mit.edu/21c/21CWP001.html
The scenarios were developed during 1994-1997 by MIT
academic and research staff in discussions with
hundreds of executives at various MIT Symposia,
executive education programs, etc.
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FUTURE OF ORGANISATIONS: Scenario 1
VIRTUAL COUNTRIES
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Keiretsu-like alliances with operating companies in every country
Minimal national allegiance - primary loyalty is to the corporation
Traditional hierarchy or decentralised divisional structure
Company is the focus for individual identity
Company meets employees’ needs from cradle to grave
Employees own the firm and have right to elect the Board and
management
 Open book accounting informs management elections
 Specialist “organisational designers” travel through firm brokering
partnerships and fostering cross boundary communication
 Role of governments, industry unions is significantly reduced
Examples: Asea Brown Boveri; GE; Johnson & Johnson
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Virtual Country HR
 HR almost replaces social welfare, education systems and provides
financial management and estate planning services, etc
 Corporate (strategic) HR
 sets standards and monitors the corporate culture
 helps Marketing build the corporate brand
 Divisional (operational) HR
 total care of employees so they are free to focus on performance
 Actively involved in local communities to reinforce the company
culture and image
 Selection emphasises fit with corporate values
 Performance management focuses on results achieved the
“XYZ way” and on being a company ambassador in all areas of life
 Reward is via promotion, enhanced status, rights, benefits - and pay
 Development is via corporate colleges and universities in partnership
with the world’s best educational institutions
 Innovation is through internal R&D and improvement programs with
heavy emphasis on protecting corporate intellectual property
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FUTURE OF ORGANISATIONS: Scenario 2
SMALL COMPANIES, LARGE NETWORKS
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Autonomous teams of 1-10 people
Temporary - task or project based
Linked by high bandwidth, electronic network
Venture capital infrastructure identifies promising teams and
provides financing
 Independent organisations emerge for social networking,
recreation, learning, reputation building and income smoothing
 evolved from professional associations, unions, clubs,
university alumnis, neighbourhoods, families, churches
 they are home for our identity as projects come and go
Examples: Film industry; Prato Mills (Italy); Nike; Nokia PC Display Division
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Your Organisation is the Network
Employees
Suppliers,
Contractors
Govt Agencies
Unions,
Associations
Business
Partners
Shareholders,
Investors
Community
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Small Company, Large Network HR
 Very specific in scope as far as the project organisation is concerned
(e.g. talent scouting/selection, pay, health & safety)
 Outsourced
 agents, brokers, specialist providers
 contract staff organisations handle the HR for their talent as
part of their brand and competitive strategy
 Individuals rely on professional associations, “guilds”,
managers/agents
 Mutual employment obligations spelled out in project contracts
 Project Manager’s reputation depends on his/her people skills and
hence there is a reluctance to delegate to HR specialists
 Selection is via networks, personal references, reputation
 Performance management is via peer pressure and industry/
professional standards
 Rewards are contractual or entrepreneurial (equity based)
 Development is via doing leading edge projects
 Innovation is via brokers, deal makers, agents, sponsors
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How are Networks Different?
Traditional Organisation
 Formal authority
 Rigid structure - power
concentrated at “top”
 Clear boundaries
 Leadership responsible for
control
 Focus on contracted
performance outputs
 Money, status hold people in
the system
 Growth by expansion,
acquisition
 Scale gives economic power
 Success measured in financial
terms
 Threatened by complexity,
change
Network Organisation
 Expert, relationship, symbolic
power
 Fluid structure - distributed power
 Fuzzy boundaries
 Leadership promotes order,
linkages, emergent properties
 Focus on commitment,
psychological contract
 Members held by values, synergy,
higher order goals
 Growth by cell replication and
linkages to new cells
 Power derives from symbols,
stories, relationships
 Success is resilience, impact,
quality of relations
 Nourished by complexity, change
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Networks in the Knowledge Economy
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The Leadership Challenge
The vast majority of the leadership and
management literature presumes large,
hierarchical organisational structures.
Consequently, we know very little about
how to lead and manage networks - and
yet these are likely to proliferate in the
future as large hierarchies consolidate, die
out or are transformed.
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FUTURE WORKER 2015:
A “maverick” scenario
 Extreme individualisation of work
 Multiple expectations of work
(e.g. Gen X, Gen Y, Baby Boomers, Migrants)
 Global village with virtual teams
 Inventiveness spreads into developing countries
 More than 60 percent of jobs will be unique to a company
 More collaboration, less alone time
Source: Gartner Research paper “Future Worker 2015: Extreme Individualization” 27 March 2006
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Future Worker 2015
Key Conclusions
 Future successful companies will have a symbiotic
relationship with the future individualized workers, as
opposed to an authoritarian relationship.
 Companies that operate as if they own and control people
will become obsolete.
 No company will build or sustain a competitive advantage
unless it capitalizes on the combined power of
individualized workers and social dynamics.
Source: Gartner Research paper “Future Worker 2015: Extreme Individualization”
27 March 2006
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Predictions of the Impact of Changes by 2015
High Probability    
Low Probability 
 Companies will have to completely revise their hiring and benefits
practices.    
 The average tenure at one job for skilled workers will be 18 months.   
 Skilled workers will drive 80 percent of the technology acquisition
decisions for their workplace.   
 In highly developed countries, employees will see their managers face-toface three times on average.  
 A new breed of universities will perfect the concept of agile curriculum
development.  
 Seventy-five percent of corporate IT workers will be focused on supporting
and enhancing cross-business processes.  
 A new international legal definition of a business entity will include virtual
employees, capital and a structure of accountability to replace a board of
directors.  
Source: Gartner (March 2006)
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The Changing Worker
Past
Future???
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The drivers of increasing workforce diversity
 Several generations at work as workforce age span increases
 Increasing cultural and ethnic diversity as immigration fills skill
gaps; and knowledge workers chase global opportunities
 Attitudes of Gen Y and the retiring baby boomers – they both
want work that fits their chosen lifestyles; and because of skill
shortages they have market power
 Companies must foster innovation to compete – and innovation
is nurtured by diversity of ideas, knowledge, professional
networks, perceptual and learning styles, problem solving
styles, etc
 But research highlights the critical moderating role of
leadership, organisational culture and HR policies
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The moderating role of leadership and culture
Diversity X Leadership X Org. Culture = Performance
The leader must:
 Allocate diverse team members appropriately
 Educate the team about the important roles to be played by
different skills, attitudes, knowledge, etc
 Develop processes for positively managing tensions
And organisational culture and HR policies must:
 Recruit, train and reward diversity
 Develop leaders who manage diversity constructively
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In Summary: A Possible Network Future
 Most organisations produce or compete on the basis of
knowledge and services (not things).
 Most “organisations” are networks of teams and/or SMEs and
encompass the entire community of stakeholders.
 People skills, innovation and knowledge management skills are
taught at schools and universities (these are taken for granted
in the workplace).
 People management systems become necessary (and invisible)
organisational infrastructure; e.g. learning, change/transition
management and diversity management become “real work”.
 Leaders nurture networks and foster emergent order
throughout the system (this is created by bottom-up action).
Leader as ecologist vs. engineer or combat commander.
 Work teams, informal self-help networks and formal
professional associations take over much of the old HR role
(e.g. in finding jobs; sharing knowledge; recognising success).
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