Cost Estimating Basics
Why cost estimating (and an
overview of how)
Cost Prof
Unit I - Module 1
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Unit Index
Unit I – Cost Estimating
1. Cost Estimating Basics
2. Costing Techniques
3. Parametric Estimating
Unit II – Cost Analysis Techniques
Unit III – Analytical Methods
Unit IV – Specialized Costing
Unit V – Management Applications
Cost Prof
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Outline
• Introduction to Cost Estimating and
Analysis
• Overview of Cost Estimating and
Analysis
• Cost Estimating Products
• Cost Estimating Process & Methods
• Cost Estimating Certification
• Summary
• Resources
Cost Prof
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Introduction to Cost
Estimating and Analysis
• Definition and
Purpose
• Applications
• Organizations
• Skills
Cost Prof
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Cost Estimating
• Cost Estimating:
– The process of collecting and analyzing historical
data and applying quantitative models, techniques,
tools, and databases to predict the future cost of
an item, product, program or task
• Purpose of cost estimating
– Translate system/functional requirements
associated with programs, projects, proposals, or
processes into budget requirements
– Determine and communicate a realistic view of the
likely cost outcome, which can form the basis of
the plan for executing the work
Cost Prof
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Applications of Cost Estimating
• As part of a total systems analysis, cost
estimating helps decision makers to:
– Make decisions on program viability, structure,
and resource requirements
– Establish and defend budgets
– Assess technology changes
13 – Conduct analysis of alternatives (AoA)
– Create new business proposals and perform
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source selection
16
– Perform design trade-offs
– Comply with public law
– Satisfy oversight requirements
Cost Prof
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Cost Estimating Organizations
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20
• Cost oversight organizations
• Program Offices and project teams
• Budgeting, contracting, and purchasing
organizations
• Manufacturers
• Consultants
Cost Prof
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Cost Estimating Skills
• Cost estimating and analysis at its best
is an interdisciplinary mix of:
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– Mathematics, Probability, Statistics 10
– Economics, Econometrics, Business,
Accounting, Budgeting
– Operations Research, Management
11
Science, Industrial Engineering
– Mechanical Engineering, Systems
Engineering, Physics, etc.
Estimating 101, Naval Center for Cost Analysis
– Sales and Marketing Cost
(NCCA), http://www.ncca.navy.mil/about/101.cfm.
Cost Prof
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Overview of Cost
Estimating and Analysis
• Requirements
• Benefits and Qualities
• Limitations and
Concerns
• Types of Cost Estimates
• Government Entities
Cost Prof
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Requirements for Cost Estimating
• Must estimate and plan consumption of resources
– Capture impacts of changing resources
11 • Validated cost estimate necessary to continue
through milestone reviews
– Estimates should be updated periodically as program
matures technically and schedules change
• Efficient management of changing requirements
under tight constraints
– Supports management decisions by quantifying the resource
impact of alternatives
Cost analysis is required
whenever resources are allocated
Cost Prof
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Benefits of Cost Estimating
• Supports budgeting process by enabling you to:
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Integrate the requirements and budgeting processes
Assess reasonableness of program budgets
Effectively defend budgets to oversight organizations
Quickly/accurately determine impacts of budget cuts on
program baselines and associated functionality
• Enhances profitability and organization’s future
business potential
• Uses established, repeatable methods
• Enables identification of potential pitfalls such as cost
growth, schedule slips early in a program’s life
• Enables identification of future cost improvement
initiatives
Cost Prof
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Benefits of Cost Estimating
• Provides for the identification and objective
9
quantification of the impact of program risks
(technical and schedule risks)
• Provides basis for evaluating competing
13
systems/initiatives (cost/benefit analyses and AoAs)
• Enables proposal pricing and evaluation of proposals 19
14
for cost reasonableness
• Captures cost impacts of design decisions to facilitate
16 tradeoffs in CAIV/DTC/Target Costing
• Facilitates evaluation of the impact of new ways of
doing business (e.g., in-sourcing vs. outsourcing,
COTS vs. custom software)
Cost Prof
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Cost Estimate Qualities
• The characteristics of high quality cost
estimates are:
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–
Cost Prof
Accuracy
Comprehensiveness
Replicability and Auditability
Traceability
Credibility
Timeliness
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Limitations of Cost Estimating
• Cost estimating cannot
– Be applied with cookbook precision
– Produce results that are better than input
data
– Predict political impacts
– Substitute for sound judgment,
management, or control
– Make final decisions
Cost Prof
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Cost Estimating Concerns
• Support Critical Decisions
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– May be difficult to quantify cost impacts of alternatives
– Cannot trade off non-cost variables
• Timeliness
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– Schedule constraints on estimate delivery
• Estimate quality suffers with fast turnaround requirements
– Quick and easy access to historical data may not be possible
– Lower quality estimate limits utility to key decision makers
• Quality
4
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–
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Definition of “good data”
Adjustments to raw data may be made several times
Inadequate documentation
Undocumented or tacit knowledge
• Coordination
– Large number of organizations may be involved
Cost Prof
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Cost Estimating Concerns
• Consistency
– Estimates must track over time
– Estimates developed by other organizations must
be based on same content and assumptions
– Historical data is not consistent between differing
cost element or work breakdown structures
• Security/access
– Company-proprietary data
– Data classification/security
– Possible misuse of data
Cost Prof
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Types of Cost Estimates – Budget
• Budget Estimate
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6
– Estimate prepared for inclusion in budget to
support acquisition programs
– Ensures project feasibility and attainable
performance levels
– A reliable project cost estimate consistent with
realistic schedules
– Used to establish baseline project definitions,
schedules, and costs
– May or may not include risk
Cost Prof
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Types of Cost Estimates – LCCE
• Life Cycle Cost Estimate (LCCE)
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– “Cradle to grave" estimate
– Includes research and development (R&D),
production, operations and support (O&S), and
disposal
• Commercial definitions are similar
• Life cycle is often confused with O&S but actually
includes all of the above
– Should be performed as early in the life cycle as
possible
– Estimate costs regardless of funding source
– AKA Total Ownership Cost (TOC) estimate
Cost Prof
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Types of Cost Estimates – ICE
• Independent Cost Estimate (ICE)
– LCCE developed by an independent organization
– “True facts" assessment of what the program's
most likely cost will be
– Provides an unbiased test of the reasonableness
of the Program LCCE (PLCCE)
– Identifies potential budgetary excesses and
shortfalls
– Reduces the cost risks associated with the project
Cost Prof
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Types of Cost Estimates – ROM & EA
• Rough-Order-of-Magnitude (ROM)
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–
–
–
Very little specific information is known about the project
The design effort has not begun
Estimate uses ratios or factored historical information
Used for feasibility studies and selection from among
alternatives
– AKA “Quick Look”
• Economic Analysis (EA)
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– Describes specific mission requirement(s) and lists specific
alternative courses of action
– Framework for systematically investigating problems of
choice
– Compares the costs and benefits associated with each
alternative course of action
Cost Prof
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Types of Cost Estimates – AoA & ABC
• Analysis of Alternatives (AoA)
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– Evaluates the costs and benefits of different
alternatives
– Shows advantages and disadvantages of the
alternatives being considered
• Activity Based Costing (ABC)
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– Accounting methodology that assigns all costs to
activities
– Enables resources and overhead costs to be
accurately assigned to products and services
– Assists in making decisions about pricing,
outsourcing, capital expenditures and operational
efficiency.
Cost Prof
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Government Entities
Responsible for Cost Estimating
• OSD Cost Analysis Improvement Group (CAIG)
– Milestone review authority, has oversight of DoD service cost centers
• Intelligence Community CAIG (IC CAIG)
– Provides independent cost assessments to the Director of Central
Intelligence (DCI) for selected IC programs
• Naval Center for Cost Analysis (NCCA)
– Prepares and briefs the Component Cost Analysis (CCA) to the CAIG
– Holds a reconciliation meeting prior to the formal CAIG meeting
• US Army Cost and Economic Analysis Center (CEAC)
– CEAC prepares CCA and briefs results to the CAIG
– Army Cost Review Board works with the Assistant Secretary of the Army
(Financial Management) to develop the Army cost position briefed to the
CAIG
• Air Force Cost Analysis Agency (AFCAA)
– Air Force Cost Directorate, SAF/FMCC, prepares the AF cost position,
after reconciliation between the System Program Office estimate and the
AFCAA’s CCA
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Cost Products
• Cost Analysis
Requirements
Description (CARD)
• Cost Estimate
• Estimate
Documentation
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Cost Analysis
Requirements Description (CARD)
• Cost Analysis Requirements Description (CARD)
2
– Detailed technical, programmatic, and schedule
description
• Purpose of CARD
– Collect, integrate and coordinate technical,
programmatic, and schedule information necessary to
estimate the costs of a program
– Ensures that cost projections developed by the analyst
are based on a common definition of the system and
the acquisition program
CARD is a DoD requirement for major programs but a
CARD-like document should be developed for any
estimate, government or private industry
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CARD Contents
• CARD includes:
– System Technical
Description
– Work Breakdown
Structure (WBS)
– Predecessor System
Description
– Manpower
Requirements
– Risk
– Operational Concept
– Deployment
Cost Prof
– Logistics Support
Concept
– Training
– Acquisition Schedule
– Acquisition Strategy
– System Test and
Evaluation (ST&E)
– Environmental
Impact Analysis
– Track to Prior CARD
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CARD Contents
• CARD includes:
– System Technical
Description
– Work Breakdown
Structure (WBS)
– Predecessor System
Description
– Manpower
Requirements
– Risk
– Operational Concept
– Deployment
Cost Prof
– Logistics Support
Concept
– Training
– Acquisition Schedule
– Acquisition Strategy
– System Test and
Evaluation (ST&E)
– Environmental
Impact Analysis
– Track to Prior CARD
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Cost Estimate
• Definition of a cost estimate
– Cost estimate is an analysis of individual cost
elements using established methodologies to
project from data to estimated costs
– Various types of estimates can be developed
• Budget Estimate, LCCE, ICE, ROM Estimate, EA, AoA,
ABC, etc.
• Developed using one or more estimating
2
techniques
• Analyst should consider past and current
actual data
Cost Prof
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Cost Estimate Characteristics
• Input rates
– Labor, materials, tooling, scrap, etc.
– Application of audited or negotiated direct and
indirect rates
• Model structure
– Estimate developed to a varying level of detail
depending on system and schedule
– Estimate is inflated and time phased
• Model execution
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– Applies COTS or custom model
– May include sensitivity/risk analysis
Cost Prof
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Estimate Documentation
• Why document the estimate?
– Provides reviewers with:
•
•
•
•
•
Purpose of cost estimate
Program background and system description
Program Schedule
Scope of cost estimate
Ground rules and assumptions
– Robust and detailed documentation
permits reviewers to follow estimate logic
from assumptions to results
Document not only for an external audience but for yourself!
Cost Prof
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Estimate Documentation
• What should be documented?
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3
– The data, data sources, and normalization
procedures
– Labor rates and hours, content, and how
they were developed
– Material requirements and subcontracts
– Methodology for any applicable cost
improvement curves
– Details regarding the factors and cost
estimating relationships (CERs) applied
Cost Prof
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Estimate Documentation
• What should be documented?
– Details regarding the applied cost models
including
• Relevance to the system/program
• Inputs/outputs
• Calibrations performed
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– Inflation indices used and time phasing details
– Detailed description of judgments applied by
estimator(s)
– Any details of risk and confidence analysis
– The conclusion(s) resulting from the estimate
– Appendices and appropriate references
Cost Prof
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Cost Estimating Process
WBS
Baseline
Data
Collection
Data
Analysis
Methodology
Validation
Reports
Cost Prof
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• Work Breakdown Structure
(WBS) Development
• Program/System Baseline
Development
• Data Collection and Analysis
• Cost Element Methodology
• Estimate Development and
Validation
• Results and Report Generation
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Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)
WBS
• What is a WBS?
Baseline
Data
Collection
Data
Analysis
3
– Common frame of reference for relating job tasks to each
other and relating project costs at the summary level of
detail
– Framework for specifying the objectives, labor, materials,
and contracts of the system/program
• Structure defining the total program/system
• Detailed definitions of individual elements required
• WBS varies by program and project phase
Methodology • WBS  Cost Element Structure (CES)
• MIL-STD-881B previously the DoD standard
Validation
Reports
Cost Prof
– Now MIL-HDBK-881B is guidance
– Excellent resource for WBS components/content
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Purpose of a WBS
WBS
Baseline
Data
Collection
Data
Analysis
• Displays and defines the system/program to be
developed as a product-oriented family tree
– Includes hardware, software, support, and/or service
elements
– WBS should encompass complete life cycle of the
system/program
• CARD (or similar type of document) is the source for this
program plan
• Establishes the physical work packages or
elements and the activities within those packages
Methodology
that completely define a project
Validation
– Organizes the physical work packages into levels that
can be developed into a summary
Reports
Cost Prof
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Purpose of a WBS
WBS
Baseline
Data
Collection
Data
Analysis
Methodology
Validation
Reports
Cost Prof
• Relates the work scope elements to each
other and to the end product(s)
– Makes the relationships of the components
clear and the relationship of the tasks to be
completed (to each other and to the end
product) clear
• Key to developing/tracking costs
– Provides financial reporting framework
– Assists in tracking the status of efforts,
resource allocations, cost estimates,
expenditures, and cost and technical
performance
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Work Breakdown
Structure (WBS) Early Development
WBS
Baseline
Data
Collection
Data
Analysis
Methodology
Validation
Reports
Cost Prof
• WBS development should start early in
the conceptual stages of the program
– Provides structure to the design
requirements and functional architecture
• WBS evolves as system/program
evolves
– Evolves through iterative analysis of the
development strategy, objectives and
requirements
– Define detailed technical objectives and
specify work tasks for each WBS element
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Work Breakdown
Structure (WBS) Continued Development
WBS
Baseline
Data
Collection
Data
Analysis
Methodology
Validation
Reports
Cost Prof
• As the program/system matures
– Engineering efforts focus on system-level performance
requirements and top-level specifications
– Major subsystems and configuration items are identified
– WBS continues to be defined at lower levels
– Eventually the total system definition is complete
• During production, maintain and update the WBS
• WBS Dictionary
– Develop WBS dictionary while developing WBS
– Should be routinely revised to incorporate changes and
current status of the program throughout the program's
life
Tip: Dictionaries are often overlooked
and are critical to use of a WBS
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Program/System Baseline Definition
WBS
Baseline
Data
Collection
Data
Analysis
Methodology
Validation
• Program/system baseline definition
encompasses all the information of a CARD
• Process for defining program/system
baseline
– Determine the programmatic scope of estimate
• Period to be estimated
• Phases estimated
– Determine the technical scope of estimate
• Program requirements
• Work not included
• Deliverables
Reports
Cost Prof
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Program/System Baseline Definition
WBS
Baseline
Data
Collection
Data
Analysis
Methodology
Validation
• Process for defining program/system
baseline
– Develop detailed system technical description
• Include key performance characteristics,
hardware/software components, architecture,
configurations, reliability and security requirements,
etc.
– Include previously developed WBS
– Develop detailed description of predecessor
systems, if any
• Include technical details, reason for replacing, legacy
hardware/software, phase-out plan, etc.
Reports
Cost Prof
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Program/System Baseline Definition
WBS
Baseline
Data
Collection
Data
Analysis
Methodology
Validation
Reports
Cost Prof
• Process for defining program/system
baseline
– Determine manpower requirements
• Include skills, salaries, location, etc.
– Incorporate technical/performance, schedule,
and cost risk
• Determined by management and/or engineers
– Define the operational concept
• Include program management details, operation
specifics, platforms
– Determine deployment details
• Include sites, schedules, special preparations, site
configurations, transition plans, etc.
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Program/System Baseline Definition
WBS
Baseline
Data
Collection
Data
Analysis
Methodology
Validation
Reports
Cost Prof
• Process for defining program/system
baseline
– Detail logistics support
7
• Include maintenance, sparing, and upgrade
plans
– Define the training plan
• Include types of training/certification,
providers, locations, frequency, etc.
– Establish the acquisition schedules
• Include milestones, strategy, contracting
details, etc.
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Program/System Baseline Definition
WBS
Baseline
Data
Collection
Data
Analysis
Methodology
Validation
• Process for defining program/system
baseline
– Detail the system test and evaluation
plan
• Include schedule, number of tests, criteria,
locations, etc.
– Describe any environmental impacts
• Include disposal concept, mitigation plans,
conditions, materials, etc.
– Maintain track to the original baseline
• As programs mature, define changes
Reports
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Data Collection and Analysis
WBS
Baseline
Data
Collection
Data
Analysis
Methodology
Validation
• Data Collection
– Obtaining data
– Normalizing data
4
• Data Analysis
4
5
6
8
– Methods and process
Tip: These two steps of the
process go hand in hand and are
somewhat iterative.
Reports
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Data Collection
WBS
Baseline
Data
Collection
Data
Analysis
Methodology
Validation
Reports
Cost Prof
• Understand total picture of estimating
task
– Intended use of the estimate
– Scope of the estimate
4
• Establish cost element structure
– Based on WBS
• Understand estimating techniques
and data collection needs
– Identify proposed estimating
technique(s)
– Identify potential data sources
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Data Collection
WBS
Baseline
Data
Collection
Data
Analysis
Methodology
Validation
Reports
Cost Prof
• Develop data collection plan
– Ensure sources identified for all needed cost
elements
– Identify alternative/backup data sources 4
– Identify sources for cross-checks
– Establish a timeline/schedule
• Collect the data
• Normalize the data
– Make data consistent and comparable
– Types of normalization include Cost Units,
Sizing Units, Key Groupings, State-OfDevelopment Variables, and End Terms for
Homogeneity
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Data Analysis
WBS
• Scatter plot the data
Baseline
– Develop visual depiction of the
14
relationships in the data
Data
Collection
• Calculate descriptive statistics
Data
Analysis
Methodology
Validation
Reports
Cost Prof
6
– For example, the means and CVs
• Look for outliers
– Points far from the center of the data
• Compare to history
– Standard factors, rules of thumb, other
historical data
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Cost Element Methodology
WBS
Baseline
Data
Collection
Data
Analysis
Methodology
Validation
• Select estimating methodology that most
reliably estimates program costs
• Primary cost estimating techniques or
methodologies
2
16 – Analogy
3
8
– Parametric
– Engineering build-up
• Other methods
– Expert opinion
– Extrapolation from actuals
Reports
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Estimate Development and Validation
WBS
Baseline
Data
Collection
Data
Analysis
Methodology
Validation
Reports
Cost Prof
• Develop estimate with appropriate
costing techniques
• Validate estimate
– Crosscheck with historical data for similar
17 programs, another estimating
methodology, or another model
– Compare estimate with industry “rules of
thumb”
– Crosscheck proprietary models with
Excel backups
• Document estimate while developing
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Results and Report Generation
WBS
Baseline
Data
Collection
Data
Analysis
Methodology
Validation
Reports
Cost Prof
• Document the estimate
– Written justification of the estimate
– Well-documented estimate withstands scrutiny
13
and increases credibility
– Provide sufficient information to replicate the
estimate
• Develop results and report at appropriate
level of detail
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–
–
–
Crisp and complete
Easy to comprehend
Address important details
Convey competence
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Results and Report Generation
WBS
Baseline
Data
Collection
Data
Analysis
Methodology
Validation
Reports
Cost Prof
• Conduct other analysis
– Cost As an Independent Variable (CAIV)
• Making performance and schedule a function of
available resources
16
– Sensitivity analysis
• Tool for determining effect of changes for decisionmaking
– Risk analysis
• Analyzing technical, schedule, performance and
other risks
9
• Used to adjust cost estimate
• Final result is defendable cost estimate for
decision making
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Cost Estimating Certification
• So you want to be a cost analyst…
– Society of Cost Estimating and Analysis
(SCEA) offers the important professional
certification Certified Cost Estimator/Analyst
(CCE/A)
– Combination of educational and job
experience requirements (minimum 2 years)
– CCE/A exam ($85)
– More details on SCEA website
(http://www.sceaonline.net) under
Certification
Cost Prof
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Summary
• Rigorous and systematic estimating leads to a better
understanding of the problem
• Quality and accuracy depend on the expertise of the
estimator
– Estimator must understand complexity, technology, and
programmatic issues
• Don’t lose sight of the forest for the trees
– Leaving out components
– Double-counting components
– Forgetting integration costs
• Ability to reproduce the estimate
• Estimator must understand all estimating methods
applied
Cost Prof
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Resources
• Cost Estimating Handbook, 2nd ed.,
Rodney D. Stewart, Wiley, 1991
• Engineering Cost Estimating, 3rd ed.,
Phillip F. Ostwald, Prentice-Hall, 1991
• DoD MIL-HDBK-881 “Work Breakdown
Structure,” 02 Jan 1998
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Resources – Agencies
• Oversight agencies
– NCCA, http://www.ncca.navy.mil
– CEAC, http://www.ceac.army.mil
– AFCAA, http://www.saffm.hq.af.mil/afcaa
• NCCA Cost Analysis 101
– http://www.ncca.navy.mil/about/101.cfm
• Budget/financial organizations
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–
–
–
Cost Prof
GAO, http://www.gao.gov
OMB, http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb
USD(C), http://www.dtic.mil/comptroller
DCAA, http://www.dcaa.mil
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Resources – Regulatory
• Title 10, United States Code, Section
2434
– Independent Cost Estimates; Operational
Manpower Requirements
• Clinger-Cohen Act of 1996
Cost Prof
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Resources – Regulatory
• Title 10, United States Code, Section
2434
– Independent Cost Estimates; Operational
Manpower Requirements
• Clinger-Cohen Act of 1996
Cost Prof
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Resources – Regulatory
• Title 10, United States Code, Section
2434
– Independent Cost Estimates; Operational
Manpower Requirements
• Clinger-Cohen Act of 1996
Cost Prof
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Resources – Policy
• DoDD 5000.1, DoDI 5000.2 “Defense Acquisition
System,” 23 October 2000 (incl Change 1, 4 Jan 2001)
• DoD 5000.2-R “Mandatory Procedures for MDAPs and
MAIS Acquisition Programs,” 11 Jun 2001
– http://www.acq.osd.mil/ar/library.htm#directives
• DoDD 5000.4 “OSD Cost Analysis Improvement Group
(CAIG)”
• DoD 5000.4-M “Cost Analysis Guidance and
Procedures,” 11 Dec 1992
– http://www.dtic.mil/whs/directives/corres/html/50004m.htm
• DoDI 7041.3
– Economic Analysis and Program Evaluation for Resource
Management
Cost Prof
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Resources – Policy
• DoDD 5000.1, DoDI 5000.2 “Defense Acquisition
System,” 23 October 2000 (incl Change 1, 4 Jan 2001)
• DoD 5000.2-R “Mandatory Procedures for MDAPs and
MAIS Acquisition Programs,” 11 Jun 2001
– http://www.acq.osd.mil/ar/library.htm#directives
• DoDD 5000.4 “OSD Cost Analysis Improvement Group
(CAIG)”
• DoD 5000.4-M “Cost Analysis Guidance and
Procedures,” 11 Dec 1992
– http://www.dtic.mil/whs/directives/corres/html/50004m.htm
• DoDI 7041.3
– Economic Analysis and Program Evaluation for Resource
Management
Cost Prof
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