2.5 Demonstrate understanding of
how technological modelling
supports risk management
Lesley Pearce
Team Solutions Auckland University
November 2010
Level 7 Curriculum
Objective
• Understand how the "should" and "could"
decisions in technological modelling rely on an
understanding of how evidence can change in
value across contexts and how different tools
are used to ascertain and mitigate risk.
Level 7 indicators
Students can:
• discuss examples to illustrate why the status of
evidence gained from technological modelling might
change across contexts
• explain why different people accept different types
of evidence as valid and how this impacts on
technological modelling
• explain the role of technological modelling in
ascertaining and mitigating risk
• describe examples to illustrate the strengths and
weaknesses of technological modelling for risk
mitigation.
Designers/technologists…
• they sketch, make mock-ups and rudimentary
functional models, which makes it possible for them
to learn about the alternative design directions and
anticipate forthcoming design possibilities and
challenges in a designerly manner (Cross, 2006)
• By becoming more familiar with the new project
through design exploration, designers can identify
project specific information needs, which give a
focused agenda to the later process phases, which
include meetings with the users.
Why modelling is important…
• There are no rewards in life for being the first
one with the wrong answer. Imagine spending
years building a product, only to learn that it
missed the needs of its intended market.
History is littered with the carcasses of failed
products and the companies that built them product development is indeed a risky
business.
Product failures - Segway
• a self-balancing personal transportation device
with two wheels launched in 2002. ”It will be
to the car what the car was to the horse and
buggy” Head of Segway
• Anticipated sales might hit $1 billion as fast as
any company in history. The company spent
about $100 million developing the product.
Segway did not understand that its price point,
well above $3,000 for most models and $7,000
for some, was too high to draw a mass
consumer base. The other major unforeseen
problem is that the Segway was classified as a
road vehicle in some countries requiring
licensing, while it was illegal to use on roads in
other nations. From 2001 to the end of 2007,
the company only sold 30,000 units of its twowheeled scooter.
Why?
Zoo bans Cadbury bars – why?
Cadbury and palm oil
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Cadbury has bowed to consumer pressure and stopped using palm oil in its dairy
milk chocolate.
The confectionery giant caused a furore when it was revealed it had substituted
cocoa butter with vegetable fat including palm oil.
Palm oil is a contentious ingredient with reports blaming its plantations for huge
contributions to global warming and intensive habitat destruction leading to the
deaths of orang-utans in Indonesia and Malaysia.
Cadbury New Zealand managing director Matthew Oldham said he was "really
sorry" and that the decision was in direct response to consumer feedback,
including hundreds of letters and emails.
"At the time, we genuinely believed we were making the right decision, for the
right reasons. But we got it wrong,” he said.
"Now we’re putting things right as soon as we possibly can, and hope Kiwis will
forgive us.
Technological literacy
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Technological modelling
Risk management
Stakeholders
Functional modelling
Prototyping
Functional reasoning
Practical reasoning
Social aspects – moral/ethical
Functional reasoning
what can be done
• Provides a basis for exploring the technical
feasibility of the design concept and outcome
• That is it focuses on “how to make it happen”
in the functional modelling phase, and the
reasoning behind “how it is happening” in the
prototyping
Practical reasoning
what ought to be done
• Provides a basis for exploring acceptability
(such as moral, ethical, social, political,
economic, and environmental dimensions)
surrounding the design concept and outcome
testing. That is the reasoning around
decisions as to should it happen focuses on
“should we make it happen?” and “should it
be happening?”
Functional modelling
• The yet to be realised tech outcome for the
purpose of testing design concepts with
regard to the physical and functional nature of
the outcome required by the brief
Prototype
• Is the modelling of the realised but yet to be
implemented technological outcome
• Its purpose is to evaluate the fitness for
purpose of a technological outcome against
the brief
• It is used to gather information to establish its
acceptability for implementation or the need
for further development
When is modelling carried out?
Design Research
• What’s the idea? What problem does it solve? How
do people use it? Is it one-size-fits-all? Who’s going
to buy it? How much will they pay for it?
• Questions in the research phase-combining market
and technology research with focus groups, thorough
foundations for projects. ends with the creation of
the design brief.
• After all - The foolish man built his house upon the
sand...
Concept design
• Concept design is about translating, exploring and
resolving the design brief - turning an idea scribbled
on a napkin into a believable, viable product.
• Firstly, the problem is examined and a range of
possible solutions are sketched and explored. This
allows us to make educated decisions on the best
design options. This is typically achieved through
cycles of researching, innovation, sketching and
evaluation.
Design development
• Development work refines the way the user will
interact with the product and the look and feel. We
solve how best to manufacture, assemble and
disassemble the product.
• This phase involves a lot of mechanism sketching,
user storyboards, model making, and a more
detailed selection of material, colours and textures.
• By applying ergonomic, anthropometric and
mechanical data to the designs, we can ensure their
accuracy and integrity.
Computer Aided Design
• CAD allows designers to create 'virtual' prototypes
on the computer. They can be developed, analysed
and eventually used to create the technical
drawings for rapid prototyping and manufacture.
• CAD is a relatively inexpensive way of visualizing your
product. Once the model is built, it can be viewed
from any angle and photorealistic renderings can be
produced.
Prototyping &
Manufacturing
• This is the final stage before taking the leap
into manufacture.
• Producing a prototype allows you to
demonstrate and test the appearance, size,
features and function of your product. This is a
great way to get real feedback from users,
manufacturers or investors to tweak and
improve the product prior to manufacture.
Case study: Dyson
• Dyson set to work. 5 years and 5,127
prototypes later, the world's first bagless
vacuum cleaner from Dyson arrived
• Brief case study
his method does underline the value of models in
product development. This iterative approach is how
all Dyson design engineers continue to work today.
• When they began work on the DCO5 cylinder
vacuum cleaner they wanted to develop a smaller,
lighter, quieter and more powerful cylinder vacuum
cleaner that used Dual CycloneTM technology.
Sketches – card models
Breadboard – foam models
Used to assess the products
performance
Used to develop ergonomics
and aesthetics
MDF – Resin models
Prototype
Testing
Capturing movement
Testing for failure
AS Step ups from level 1 to 2
Draft Level 2
Level 1
Evidence obtained from
different forms of
modelling
Risk mentioned at
excellence
All about why different
forms of modelling are
used to manage risk at
A,M,E
Why different forms of
modelling are used with
different stakeholder
groups
Existing modelling
behind a product
OR
Students own
modelling within
technological
practice
Identify different forms of modelling (functional to
prototype). Why was the modelling selected? What
information was required from the modelling at different
stages of practice? Should and could happen.
What modelling was used with different stakeholders?
How did the modelling and feedback from stakeholders
provide valid/reliable evidence?
How did the modelling mange risk (reduce the potential
of malfunction or increase the level of success of the
tech outcomes? Did the modelling identify type, severity
and probability of risk during the development stages?
Reflection on student practice
• During tech modelling evidence is gathered to justify decision
making
• Prediction of possible and probable consequences of the
proposed outcome
• Functional reasoning focuses on “how to make it happen” and
“how it is happening?”
• Practical reasoning focuses on “should we make it happen”
and “should it be happening?”
• Decisions as a result of technological modelling may include
the : termination of the development in the short or long
term, continuation of the development as planned, or
changing/refining the design concept and/or the nature of the
technological outcome before proceeding
Sentence starters…
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This case study focuses on..
This modelling was used to interact with... (stakeholder)
The feedback showed…if they had not listened to the stakeholders then
This modelling allowed the identification of… probable risk… type of risk..
The severity of the risk..
This type of modelling allowed… and this information/evidence
identified… ensuring…
This modelling showed what should be done..
I think this evidence…and this allowed them to…
The …model was used to discover what should happen and then the
evidence was used to help decide how to make it happen
…..this tested technical feasibility/social acceptability
The modelling allowed… which meant a significant change (or refinement)
to the design/use of material
Real/perceived risks were identified so they trialled/tested…..
Resources
• http://www.ijdesign.org/ojs/index.php/IJDesig
n/article/view/218/141
• Digital: Using Paper Prototypes to Manage
Risk
By Carolyn
Snyderhttp://www.uie.com/articles/prototypi
ng_risk/
• Digital
http://csweb.cs.bgsu.edu/maner/domains/Pr
oto.htm