HAZARD VULNERABILTY
ANALYSIS: ISSUES WITH THE
CURRENT MODEL
Scot Phelps, JD, MPH, Paramedic, CEM/CBCP/MEP
Associate Professor of Emergency Management
Three Aspects
Three Aspects
Three Aspects
Three Aspects
Three Aspects
Three Aspects
Three Aspects
PROBABILITY X
HUMAN IMPACT X
PROPERTY IMPACT X
BUSINESS IMPACT X
PREPAREDNESS X
INTERNAL RESPONSE X
EXTERNAL RESPONSE
Three Aspects
/18)
PROBABILITY=1
HUMAN IMPACT=1
PROPERTY IMPACT=2
BUSINESS IMPACT=2
PREPAREDNESS=2
INTERNAL RESPONSE=1
EXTERNAL RESPONSE=2
RELATIVE THREAT=.165
Example: Fire
THE KAISER HVA ASKS “HOW
DOES THIS HAZARD AFFECT
THE HOSPITAL?”
THE CORRECT QUESTIONS IS
“HOW ARE THE HOSPITAL’S
BUSINESS PROCESSES
EFFECTED BY A HAZARD?”
Issue #1: Hospitals are a BUSINESS- Need a Business
Impact Analysis.
Our Mission is to
Care for the Sick
and Injured
Issue #1: Hospitals are a BUSINESS- Need a Business
Impact Analysis.
Our Mission is to
Manage the
Business of
Caring for the
Sick and Injured
Issue #1: Hospitals are a BUSINESS- Need a Business
Impact Analysis.
HOW DOES THIS BUSINESS
UNIT SERVE THE HOSPITAL?
Business Impact Analysis.
HOW IS IT EFFECTED BY
CRISIS “X”?
CAN IT STOP AND FOR HOW
LONG?
WHAT HAPPENS IF IT
“BREAKS”?
Business Impact Analysis.
WHAT OTHER UNITS OF THE
HOSPITAL DEPEND ON IT TO
FUNCTION?
Business Impact Analysis.
HOW MANY OF YOU KNOW:
HOW LONG YOUR BILLING OFFICE CAN
HAVE NO INTERNET ACCESS UNTIL
YOUR HOSPITAL IS BANKRUPT?
HAVE AUTHORIZED THE PAYROLL
COORDINATOR AS “ESSENTIAL
PERSONNEL”?
Business Impact Analysis.
HUMAN IMPACT IS
UNDERVALUED
Issue #2: People are Important
Issue #2: People are MORE Important….
MAGNITUDE OF IMPACTS
CAN BE “OUTWEIGHED” BY
MITIGATION, EVEN IF
MITIGATION DOES NOT
ADDRESS THAT PARTICULAR
FACTOR
Issue #3: Mitigation Can Hide Magnitude
PROBABILITY CAN “BURY”
IMPACT AND DISTORT
RELATIVE RISK
Issue #4: Probability Can Hide Impact
Risk IS About Frequency….
Risk IS About Frequency…
WHICH COMMUNITY HAS MORE “RISK” WHEN
IT SNOWS?
Risk IS About Frequency….
New York’s
Relative
Risk=.44
WHICH COMMUNITY HAS MORE “RISK” WHEN
IT SNOWS?
Risk IS About Frequency….
London’s
Relative
Risk=.43
WHICH COMMUNITY HAS MORE “RISK” WHEN
IT SNOWS?
Risk IS About Frequency….
“BLIZZARD OF ANGER FOLLOWS LONDON
SNOWSTORM”-ASSOCIATED PRESS
"ONE OF THE WORLD'S BIGGEST ECONOMIES
SHOULD NOT BE GRINDING TO A HALT…”
$4.3 BILLION COST IN LOST PRODUCTIVITY
Risk IS About Frequency….
What We Should Worry About….
Low Frequency/High Impact
High Frequency/Low Impact
(Kaiser Model)
High Frequency/High Impact
(Kaiser Model)
Low Frequency/Low Impact
Inside the Low Frequency/High Impact
Box….
Fast Decision Required
Slow Decision Required
Inside the Low Frequency/High Impact
Box….
Fast
Decision
Required
Fast
Decision
Required
Slow Decision Required
“Red Flag” Sentinel Risks
Red Flag Risk
“Red Flag” Sentinel Risks
Yellow Flag Risk
WHAT WE DO: CRITICAL FUNCTIONS
Revised Model
ADMINISTRATION ENGINEERING SUPPLY
CHAIN DATA CENTER/IT EMS EMERGENCY
DEPARTMENT SURGERY CLINIC/OUTPATIENT
OPERATIONS INPATIENT OPERATIONS
SECURITY FOOD SERVICE HOUSEKEEPING
LABORATORY PHARMACY
Critical Functions
WHAT WE NEED TO DO IT: CRITICAL
INFRASTRUCTURE
Revised Model
SITE ARCHITECTURAL STRUCTURAL SYSTEMS
BUILDING ENVELOPE UTILITY SYSTEMS
MECHANICAL SYSTEMS PLUMBING & GAS
SYSTEMS ELECTRICAL SYSTEMS FIRE ALARM
SYSTEMS COMMUNICATION & IT SYSTEMS
EQUIPMENT OPERATIONS & MAINTENANCE
SECURITY SYSTEMS EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT
Critical Infrastructure
Revised Model
Revised Model
Revised Model
Revised Model
Asset Value-How Critical Is It to the Mission?
Threat (cumulative)-What Can Happen?
Vulnerability-How Protected is the Asset?
Human Impact Factor
“Red Flag” Sentinel Risks
Red Flag Risk
“Red Flag” Sentinel Risks
Yellow Flag Risk
Critical Functions
Value
C
r
i
t
i
c
a
l
I
n
Threat
Value
Vulnerability
Threat
For Each Agent/Hazard
Human
Vulnerability
Human
CI-Natural Hazards
CF-Natural Hazards
CI-Technological Hazards
CF-Technological Hazards
CI-Human Hazards
CF-Human Hazards
CI-Hazardous Materials
CF-Hazardous Materials
For Each Agent/Hazard
NEED TO UNDERSTAND IMPACT ON BUSINESS UNITS
HUMAN IMPACT IS MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR
NEED TO LOOK FOR OUTLIERS IN HIGH VALUE/HIGH
THREAT /HIGH VULNERABILITY ASSETS
KAISER MODEL CAN BURY HUMAN IMPACT IN
IMPACTS, MITIGATION, OR PROBABILITY
CONCLUSION
SCOT PHELPS, JD, MPH, PARAMEDIC, CEM/CBCP/MEP
ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT STATE UNIVERSITY
144 FARNHAM AVENUE
NEW HAVEN, CT 06515
PHELPSS1@SOUTHERNCT.EDU
QUESTIONS?