Transit Market Research Using
Attitudinal Market Segmentation,
Structural Equation Modeling
and Mode Choice Modeling
Yoram Shiftan, The Technion
Maren Outwater, Cambridge Systematics
YuShuang Zhou, Cambridge Systematics
5th Israeli-British/Irish Workshop in Regional Science
Ramat Gan, April 2007
Building a Competitive Strategy
Strategies
What kinds of strategies can best seize these
opportunities?
Competitive
Positioning
Which segments in which travel markets should
transit services compete for?
Resources
What will be the likely funding and cooperation?
Market Segments
Travel Behavior
What are the market segments and where are they
located?
What are the key attitudes and preferences that
drive traveler choices?
From Market Research to Service Planning
Segment
Market
Locate Market
Segments
Competitive
Positioning
Understand
Travel Markets
Service
Planning
Customer
Experience
Transit
Priority
System
Performance
Personal
Safety
Network
Structure
Seating
Comfort
Market Research Analysis Flow Chart
Attitude-Based
Survey
Stated-Preference
Survey (WTA)
Exploratory
Factor Analysis
Confirmatory
Factor Analysis
Structural Equation
Modeling
Market Segmentation
Market Segmentation
Application
Mode Choice
(WTA)
Attitude-Based Survey Results (UTA)
10
9
Score
8
UTA - 38 Statements
WTA - 30 Statements
7
6
5
4
Attitudinal Statements
1. Driving is the fastest way
9.0
1. Avoid traveling at stressful time
5.1
2. Public transportation help the environment
8.5
2. Need to make trips to various locations
5.1
3. Clean vehicle is important
8.4
3. Don't mind transfers
4.9
4. Like to keep to my schedule when travel
8.0
4. Avoid some areas that are unsafe
4.8
5. Prefer travel options with predicted time
7.8
5. Prefer driving to be alone
4.7
6. It is imptant to have comfortable seats
7.7
6. Travel mostly during peak time
4.4
7. Like to know the cause of delay
7.6
7. Worry about getting into an accident
4.1
8. Feel safe near home or destianton
7.5
9. Important to change travel plans at a moment
7.5
9. Use Public transportation if it was cheaper
4.0
10. Feel savfe using PT
7.3
10. I am usually anxious when travel
3.1
BOTTOM TEN
TOP TEN
3
8, Driving should pay more to help Envirenment 4.1
Confirmatory Factor Analysis (UTA)
Desire to Help the
Environment
Desire for Productivity
and Reliability
Need for Fixed
Schedule
Sensitivity to
Time
Sensitivity to Stress
and Comfort
Sensitivity to Safety
and Privacy
Willingness to Use
Transit
Desire to Help the Environment
 I would be willing to pay more when I travel if it would
help improve air quality
• People who drive alone should pay more to help
improve air quality (.89)
• I would switch to a different form of transportation if
it would reduce air pollution (.86)
• Use of public transportation can help improve air
quality (.28)
Desire for Productivity and Reliability
 I would like to make productive use of my time when I travel
• I would much rather do something else with the time that I
spend traveling (.82%)
• I prefer a travel option that has predictable travel time from day
to day (.73%)
• If my travel option is delayed, I want to know the cause and
length of the delay (.68%)
• When traveling, I like to keep as close as possible to my
departure and arrival schedules (.68%)
Sensitivity to Time
 I am usually in a hurry when I make a trip
• I would change my form of travel if it would save me some
time (.93%)
• I use the fastest form of transportation regardless of cost
(.85)
• Driving is usually the fastest way to get where I need to go
(.52)
Sensitivity to Safety and Privacy
 I do mind traveling with strangers
• I do not feel safe using public transportation (.85)
• Having my privacy is important to me when I travel (.61)
• I prefer driving because I like to be alone while I travel (.56)
• I do not feel safe walking both near my home and near my
destination (.55)
• I avoid traveling through certain areas because they are
unsafe (.51)
• When traveling, I do not like to talk and visit with other
people (.26)
• I worry about getting in an accident when I travel (.21)
Need for Fixed Schedule
 I need to travel mostly during rush hour times
• I need to make trips according to a fixed schedule (89%)
Sensitivity to Stress and Comfort
 Having a stress-free trip is more important than reaching my
destination quickly
• I avoid traveling at certain times because it is too stressful
(73%)
• I don’t mind delays as long as I am comfortable (64%)
• It is important to have comfortable seats when I travel (26%)
• A clean vehicle is important to me (18%)
Willingness to Use Transit
 I wouldn’t mind walking a few minutes to get to and from a bus or
a TRAX stop
• I would ride transit if services were available to my destination
when I need to travel (88%)
• If I rode public transportation I wouldn’t mind changing
between buses or between bus and TRAX (78%)
• I know how to reach my destination using public
transportation (64%)
• I would use public transportation more often if it was cheaper
to ride (36%)
Attitude Factors (the WTA case)
Need for Flexibility
Sensitivity to Personal
Travel Experience
Desire to Help the
Environment
Need for Time
Savings
Insensitivity to
Transport Costs
Sensitivity
to Stress
Structural Equation Modeling (UTA)
Attitudinal
Statements
(Endogenous)
EQ1
Q1
Attitudinal Factors
(Latent)
Productivity &
Reliabiity
Environment.
EQ2
EQ3
Q2
Q3
Sensitivity to
Time
Socioeconomic
Status
(Exogenous)
V1
EV1
V2
EV2
V3
EV3
Privacy &
Safety
Fixed
Schedule
EQ37
Q37
Stress
& Comfort
V27
EV37
EQ38
Q38
Willingness to
Use transit
V28
EV38
Travel Behaviors
Goals of Market Segmentation
to produce distinct groups (i.e., segments) with maximized difference between
groups and minimized difference within each group
Between Segments
Within Each Segments
The differences among
segments
are maximized
The differences within
each segment are
minimized
Market Segmentation (UTA)
All Travelers
Sensitivity to Time
Need for Fixed
Schedule
Low Sensitivity of Time
Flexible
Schedule
Willingness to
No Transit
Use Transit
High Sensitivity of Time
Fixed
Schedule
Flexible
Schedule
Fixed
Schedule
Transit
No Transit
Transit
No Transit
Transit
No Transit
Transit
Productive
9 to 5-ers
Routine
Riders
Cautious
Flyers
Green
Flyers
Cautious
9 to 5-ers
Routine
Flyers
Time
Time
and Transit
Time
and Fixed
Schedule
Time, Fixed
Schedule and
Transit
Market
Segments
Anxious
Amblers
Green
Riders
Attitudinal
Focus
None of
These
Factors
Transit
Fixed
Fixed Schedule
Schedule
and
Transit
Cautious Flyers
 Low desire to improve air quality
 Lowest willingness to use transit
 High desire for productivity, high sensitivity to safety and privacy, and
low sensitivity to stress and comfort.
 Flexible schedule, yet high sensitivity to time.
 The majority of this segment is young married female with kids, most
of them are in one-worker and two-vehicle household.
 More than 75% of this segment are homemakers and students.
 Only 35% of the population in this segment need to travel more than
0.5 mile to work, nobody uses transit as the primary mode for either
work or other trips.
Green Riders
 High desire to improve air quality
 Segment with highest willingness to use transit
 Low desire for productivity and reliability, low sensitivity to time, and
very flexible schedule.
 Least sensitive segment to safety and privacy, but highly sensitive to
stress and comfort.
 High share of retired population (50%) and of students (5%)
 All households own vehicles, most of them own one.
 25% of this segment needs to travel more than 0.5 mile to work/school,
6% use transit as the primary mode for work/school trips, and 15% use
transit for non-work trips
Number of Workers in the Household
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Anxious
Amblers
Green
Riders
Productive
9 to 5-ers
0
Routine
Riders
1
Cautious
Flyers
2
>=3
Green
Flyers
Cautious
9 to 5-ers
Routine
Flyers
People Who Travel More Than ½ Mile For
Work and School Trips
Percent
91%
90
90%
85%
87%
75
60
44%
45
35%
26%
30
13%
15
7%
0
6%
11%
9%
6%
0%
Anxious
Amblers
1%
0.0%
Green
Riders
Productive Routine
Riders
9 to 5-ers
Cautious
Flyers
Share using public transit for work/school trips
Green
Flyers
Cautious
9 to 5-ers
Routine
Flyers
Market Segmentation
Desire for Safety and Privacy and
Comfort
Low
High
Competitive Positioning
Tougher Markets
Toughest Markets
Relatively Low-Hanging Fruit
Tough but Possible
High
Low
Value of Time
Market Segments
33%
30
25
21%
20%
Percent
20
15
9%
10
7%
4%
5
4%
2%
0
Anxious
Amblers
Green
Riders
Productive Routine
9 to 5-ers Riders
Cautious
Flyers
Green
Flyers
Cautious
9 to 5-ers
Routine
Flyers
One of two PUMA in
Salt Lake County
Geogarphic Details of
Market Segments
Block Groups
Census Tracts
Market Segmentation (WTA)
All Trans-Bay
Trippers
Factor
One
Factor
Two
Factor
Four
Market
Segment
Focus
Modest Environmental
Less Time
Savings
Strong Environmental
More Time
Savings
Less Time
Savings
More Time
Savings
Less
Stressed
More
Stressed
Less
Stressed
More
Stressed
Less
Stressed
More
Stressed
Less
Stressed
More
Stressed
Joe
Six-Pack
Anxious
Ambler
Calm
Charger
Frazzled
Flyer
Green
Cruiser
Reserved
Recycler
Relaxed
Runabout
Tense
Trekker
None of
These
Factors
Stress
Time
Time and
Stress
Environment Environment Environment Environment,
and Stress
and Time
Time, and
Stress
WTA Mode Choice Model
Constants
Carpool
BART
Other rail
Bus
Ferry
Drive access
Transit access/egress
LOS
Total cost
In vehicle time
Walk time
Walk access/egress time
Drive access time
Out of vehicle time
Total travel time
Modes
Auto
Transit
Transit
Transit
Transit
Transit
Transit
HBW
-0.21
1.86**
0.59
0.96*
0.018
-1.68**
-068**
HBO/Shop
-0.33
1.32*
0.64
-0.11
0.24
-1.44**
-0.29
HBRec
-1.44**
2.17**
1.51
1.27
-0.65
0.015
-0.55*
Rail/bus
Ferry
Auto
Auto
Rail/bus
Ferry
Transit
Transit
Transit
Auto
Time sensitive MS
-0.0038**
-0.0032**
-0.0013**
-0.037**
-0.023**
-0.024**
-0.030**
-0.060
-0.108**
-0.043**
-0.0078**
-0.0027**
-0.0013
-0.0007**
-0.025**
-0.016**
-0.017**
-0.023**
-0.048**
-0.069**
-0.039
-0.0094**
-0.0063**
-0.0026*
-0.0015**
-0.046**
-0.039**
-0.029**
-0.028**
-0.062**
-0.061**
-0.025
-0.0056
WTA Mode Choice Model - Continue
Socioeconomic
Household income
Vehicle per household
Additional Constants
Auto modes
Ferry modes
Carpool transit ferry
Summary statistics
Final log likelihood
Rho-Square wrt zero
Rho-Square wrt cons.
Auto VOT
Bus/Rail VOT
Ferry VOT
Modes
HBW
Drive alone
4.4E-6*
Rail/bus drive access
7.1E-6**
Ferry drive access
1.5E-5**
Rail/bus transit access -2.1E-7
Ferry walk/tran access 7.4E-6
Drive alone
0.136*
Rail/bus walk/tran accss -o.604**
Ferry walk/transit access -0.496**
Rail/bus drive access
0.026
Ferry drive access
-0.281**
Market Segments
Stress-related MS
-0.0031
Stress-related MS
0.125
Pro-environment MS
--1754.50
0.328
0.119
$17.07
$3.65
$4.60
HBO/Shop HBRec
-9.2E-7
-6.9E-6**
7.1E-6*
-1.7**
-2.1E-6
-1.2E-5**
-5.3E-7
-2.4E-5**
1.2E-5** -1.5E-5**
0.419**
0.070
-0.346*
0.018
-0.128
-0.083
0.306**
0.100
0.416**
-0.263
1.067**
0.757**
--
0.574**
-0.720**
-1115.58
0.393
0.093
$21.34
$3.49
$8.14
-780.32
0.458
0.111
$18.47
$3.70
$6.82
Conlusions
 To increase transit market share we need to understand the market
place according to the key attitudes potential customers most
value.
 Structural Equation Modeling is a powerful tool to improve our
understanding of travel behavior and to improve transit services.
 This approach can significantly increase out ability to answer
important questions for better transit planning such as:
• What attitudes and preferences drive each market segment’s
choice for local travel options?
• What strategies would be most effective for each market
segment?
• What are the “easy-to-reach” (and “hard to reach”) markets?
• What strategies are most likely to be effective in different
locations?
For Example
 Market segments with a high value of time and a high need for
safety and privacy (such as Cautious 9 to 5-ers in the UTA study) are
more difficult to serve with fixed-route transit systems.
 Market segments with a low value of time and low need to privacy
(such as Green Riders in the UTA Study) are more likely served by
models improvements to existing transit services.
Thank you for your attention!
Anxious Amblers
 Low desire to help the environment
 Low willingness to use transit
 Low desire for productivity and reliability
 Low sensitivity to time and flexible schedule
 High sensitivity to safety and privacy
 Most sensitive segment to stress and comfort
 High concentration of old retire female population
 Low to middle income level (up to $100,000)
 Only 7% of this segment needs to travel more than 0.5 mile to work,
and nobody uses transit as the primary mode for work trips. Only 4%
use transit for non-work trips.
Green Flyers
 Highest desire to help the environment, and high willingness to
use transit.
 High sensitivity to time, but low desire for productivity and
reliability, flexible schedule, low sensitivity to safety and
privacy, and low sensitivity to stress and comfort.
 Most of the people in this segment are young and middle aged,
employed, and from a one worker household.
 More than half of this segment have an income below $50,000.
 Only 44% of this segment need to travel more than 0.5 mile to
work/school, 11% of them use transit as primary mode for
commute, and 22% uses transit for non-work trips.
Mode Share for Work/School Trips
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Anxious
Amblers
Green
Riders
Productive
9 to 5-ers
Within 1/2 m ile travel
Routine
Riders
Transit
Cautious
flyers
Green
Flyers
Driving alone/carpool
Cautious 9
to 5-ers
Routine
Flyers
Other Modes