Korea Foundation Special Lectures on Korea 2015 Jung Soo SEO KAC, Keimyung University Daegu Korea October 22, 2015 Nazarbayev University On the 70th Anniversary of Korea’s independence from Japanese Annexation, NSO released some interesting statistics for Korea Population ('15, estimation) GDP(current prices)('14)(Billion Won) GDP Per capita (current prices)('14)(0,000 Won) Life Expectancy ('13) Internet Users (per 100) ('14)(%) Foreign Reserve ('15.07)(US$ million) Goods Exports('14) (US$ 1,485,078.0 million) 50,617,045 370,822.3 572,664.7 2,968.0 Goods Imports('14) (US$ million)525,514.5 No of Automobile Registration ('14) Current Account Balance 83.6 ('15.06) (US$million) 81.94 20,117,955 12,186.5 Source: statistics.kr 2 These figures place Korea in 2014 as 7th largest trading countries by exports & imports (IMF WEO DB) 13th largest economy by GDP (IMF WEO DB) 13th highest internet penetration ratio (World Bank WDI DB) 27th largest country by population size (World Bank WDI DB) 31th richest economy by GDP per capita (IMF WEO DB) 3 Rank Country GDP(US$M) Rank Country GDP(US$M) 1 United States 17,418.93 11 Canada 1,788.72 2 China 10,380.38 12 Australia 1,444.19 3 Japan 4,616.34 13 Korea 1,416.95 4 Germany 3,859.55 14 Spain 1,406.86 5 United Kingdom 2,945.15 15 Mexico 1,282.73 6 France 2,846.89 16 Indonesia 888.648 7 Brazil 2,353.03 17 Netherlands 866.354 8 Italy 2,147.95 18 Turkey 806.108 9 India 2,049.50 19 Saudi Arabia 752.459 10 Russia 1,857.46 20 Switzerland 712.05 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Luxembourg Norway Qatar Switzerland Australia Denmark Sweden San Marino Singapore United States Ireland Netherlands Austria Iceland Canada Finland Belgium Germany United Kingdom France Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database 111,716.27 97,013.26 93,965.18 87,475.46 61,219.16 60,563.62 58,491.47 56,820.02 56,319.34 54,596.65 53,461.97 51,372.96 51,306.67 51,261.88 50,397.86 49,496.72 47,721.59 47,589.97 45,653.41 44,538.15 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 New Zealand United Arab Emirates Kuwait Hong Kong SAR Israel Brunei Darussalam Japan Italy Spain Bahrain Korea Cyprus Malta Saudi Arabia The Bahamas Slovenia Taiwan Province of China Portugal Greece Trinidad and Tobago 43,837.29 43,179.78 43,103.34 39,871.10 36,990.98 36,606.83 36,331.74 35,823.22 30,278.35 28,271.75 28,100.72 26,115.46 24,876.20 24,454.02 24,034.19 24,019.25 22,597.73 22,130.49 21,653.08 21,310.83 5 It is also indicated that Korea’s GDP in 2014 is 31,108 folds bigger than that in 1953 GDP per capita 424 times larger than that in 1953 Korea’s exports (merchandise) in 2014 was 22,907 times larger than that in 1956 Korea’s imports (merchandise) in 2014 was 1361 folds bigger than that in 1956 Thus making Korea’s external merchandise trade 2672 times larger that in 1956 8 But Korea is small in size of area with a slightly over 100,000km2 of land area, ranked 109th in size Smaller than Victoria but 1.5 times bigger than Tasmania Arable land is roughly 17% of the area Not well endowed with natural resources With a very high imported energy dependence ratio of 95.6% Country Size by Area ('14) (km2) Population Density ('13) (persons/㎢) 100,284 515.9 Import Energy Dependence ('15.04)(%) Arable Land('14)(ha) 95.6 1,691,113 Source: Statistics Korea 9 Still confronting with hostile North Korea The devastated economy during the Korean War (1950-1953) Short Lived but extremely bloody Life loss(incl. deceased, casualties & missing): 2.81 million lives S. Korea: 650,000 & UN: 150,000 N. Korea: 800,000 & Chinese: 1230,000 Refuges: more than ½ total population Highly Destructive to industrial production capacity 42% of S. Korea’s manufacturing 60% of N. Korea’s industries And surrounded with super powers: US, China, Japan and Russia 10 Geopolitics of Korea Russia Kazakhstan DPRK USA China Source: googlemap Japan RoK 11 Korean Economy is The Miracle on the Han River (World Bank, 1993) Asia’s Latest Miracle(Times, 2011.11.15) How did Korea achieve such a miraculous economic growth? 12 13 Average Growth Rate,1953-1960 Resulting Market Saturation National Priority Goal: Reunification of Korean Peninsula Source of Economic Growth? 5.3%p.a. Foreign Assistance from US Growth Strategy? Industrialization & Inward Looking Import Substitution 14 15 Political Leadership Committed to Economic Development Came into power: 1961 Military Coup Government-Led Economic Development 1st Five-Year Economic Development Plan(FYEDP) (1962-1966) & 2nd FYEDP Average Economic Growth Rate (1962-1971): 9.9% p.a. Growth Strategy Outward Looking & Export Promotion Manufacturing; Labor Intensive manufacturing 16 Policies and Incentives How to make export competitive? “Getting Prices Right” Unified Exchange Rate System (1961) Devaluation of Korean Currency by 50% (1964) Tax Concessions Import Liberalization Free import of materials and equipment used for export activities Negative Import List System (1967) Generous waste allowance for export business 17 Policies and Incentives How to make export competitive? “Getting Prices Right” Unified Exchange Rate System (1961) Devaluation of Korean Currency by 50% (1964) Tax Concessions Free import of materials and equipment used for export activities Generous waste allowance for export business 18 Policies and Incentives Non-Pecuniary Export Target Monthly Export Meeting convened by President Social Respect Normalization of Diplomatic Relationship with Japan (1965) Foreign Capital Export Market Source of Advanced Technology 19 Selection of Items 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 Gross domestic product (current prices, won) (Bil .Won) 301.65 365.81 518.47 739.59 831.25 1,065.87 1,313.26 1,692.34 2,211.86 2,794.80 3,433.30 Per capita GDP (current prices, dollar) (U$) Gross domestic product (%) Exports of goods and services (%) Imports of goods and services (%) Gross saving ratio (%) Gross domestic investment ratio (%) Exports of goods and services (%) (Goods) (%) Imports of goods and services (%) (Goods) (%) 84.0 6.9 4.0 14.0 10.7 11.7 5.2 1.7 13.8 11.8 Population 90.0 3.8 3.9 15.6 10.1 13.1 5.0 1.9 15.4 13.6 103.0 9.2 3.9 14.7 13.8 17.8 4.8 2.8 14.6 12.9 106.0 9.5 5.0 12.4 13.5 14.7 6.0 3.6 12.3 10.8 108.0 7.2 7.1 14.3 12.5 14.0 8.5 5.2 14.2 12.4 128.0 12.0 8.4 18.2 16.2 20.6 10.5 5.8 18.1 16.1 145.0 9.1 9.1 19.7 15.6 21.1 12.1 6.0 19.5 17.1 174.0 13.2 10.1 22.6 18.1 25.9 12.9 6.8 22.5 19.6 216.0 14.5 10.6 22.5 21.0 28.8 13.4 7.3 22.5 19.5 253.0 10.0 11.4 21.1 18.4 25.7 13.8 8.5 21.7 18.4 290.0 10.5 12.7 23.0 15.6 25.2 14.6 10.0 24.2 20.4 25765673 26513030 27261747 27984155 28704674 29435571 30130983 30838302 31544266 32240827 32882704 20 1972-1981 Average Growth Rate: 9.0% p.a. 3rd (1972-1976) and 4th (1977-1981) Five Economic Development Creating Comparative Advantage Heavy Government Intervention By promoting Heavy and Chemical Industries Iron & Steel, Non-Ferrous Metal, Shipbuilding, Petrochemical, Machinery and Electrical Capital-Intensive & Energy-Intensive 21 Backgrounds Losing comparative advantage & Needs to Upgrade Industrial & Export Structure due to rapidly rising wages Catching-up by ASEAN Protectionist barriers against NIES’ export Non-Economic and Political Reasons The Nixon Doctrine (1969) Koreanization of Korean Security: Withdrwal of US troops from Korea The fall of Vietnam (1975) 22 Policies Used “Carrots and Sticks” Government Subsidies and Tax Concession Preferential & Policy loans to HCI Negative interest rate, combined with higher inflation rate Easy excess to foreign capital with government guarantee Protection of HCI against import 2nd stage import substitution 23 Policies Used “Carrots and Sticks” Export Promotion by promoting large firms Created General Trading Companies Samsung (1975) Highly Restrictive export target 1975: US$50 million; 1979: US$301 million In returns for substantial rewards including cash subsidies for export earnings SMEs were discriminated 24 Selection of Items 1972 1973 1974 1975 Gross domestic product (current prices, won) (Bil .Won) 4,259.80 5,513.50 7,879.90 10,505.10 14,413.20 18,520.30 25,023.10 32,218.90 39,471.30 49,324.00 Per capita GDP (current prices, dollar) (U$) Gross domestic product (%) Exports of goods and services (%) Imports of goods and services (%) Gross saving ratio (%) Gross domestic investment ratio (%) Exports of goods and services (%) (Goods) (%) Imports of goods and services (%) (Goods) (%) Population 324.0 7.2 16.6 21.5 17.5 21.2 18.3 13.8 23.0 19.0 406.0 14.8 23.9 27.7 22.9 25.7 25.6 20.2 29.3 24.7 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 562.0 615.0 831.0 1,051.0 1,452.0 1,713.0 1,703.0 1,870.0 9.5 7.9 13.1 12.3 10.8 8.6 -1.7 7.2 22.3 22.7 25.6 26.0 24.9 23.5 28.5 30.0 33.4 31.4 28.4 27.9 29.2 30.9 37.1 37.2 22.2 19.5 25.1 28.6 31.3 30.6 25.4 24.9 32.3 29.1 27.5 30.6 34.2 38.0 34.6 32.7 24.3 24.2 27.0 27.8 27.2 25.8 32.1 34.3 19.4 20.2 22.9 23.0 22.1 20.6 25.1 26.5 35.0 33.9 30.4 30.1 31.3 33.5 41.9 43.2 30.0 28.3 25.7 25.2 26.2 27.8 33.1 33.3 33505406 34103149 34692266 35280725 35848523 36411795 36969185 37534236 38123775 38723248 25 Five Year Economic Development changed to Five Year Economic and Social Development 6th (1982-1986) & 7th (1986-1991) FYESDP Emphasizing Stability, Balance, Efficiency Through Stable Prices, Openness, Competition, Social Development, Social Welfare Average Growth Rate 1982-1991: 10.2% p.a. 26 Backgrounds for Switch Over Internal Pressure Sectorial Imbalance and Social Inefficiency Associated with HCI Drive & Moral Hazard Socialization of Private Risk Excessive Capacity with Lower Capacity Utilization: 20% Political Instability Assassination of President & 2nd Military Coup Poor Harvest High Inflation associated with Rapidly rising international oil and resources prices External Pressures High International Interest Rate Slowdown of Global Economy 27 General Policy Stance To correct excesses and imbalances From export earnings to enhanced international competitiveness By giving more private initiatives Continuing liberalization Unilateral Import Liberalization Privatization of banks by selling government shares(1981 & 1983) Retained the gov’t right to appoint CEOs of commercial banks Privatization of Interest rate (1988) Introduction of a negative list system for Inward FDI (1984) 28 Political Liberalization June 29 Declaration of Democratization (1987) 1st Democratic Change of Government Accompanied Massive Industrial Dispute & Outward FDI Hyper Economic Growth (1985-1988): 11% p.a. Due to favourable external conditions: “3 Lows” or “3 Blessings” Low International Interest Rate Low Currency Value Low International Oil and Resource Prices 29 30 8th FYESDP (19912-1996) Crisis Hit the Korean Economy (1997-1998) & Massive Economic and Social Reforms were Conducted Average Growth Rate (1992-1996): 7.2% p.a. Background International Competitiveness Eroded Due to fast rising wages Growth of Nominal Wages: over 19% p.a. Revaluation of Currency by 8.65% (1987-1989) 31 8th FYESDP (1992-1996) Background Slowdown of the Economy Consumption-led Growth Current Account turned in deficit again Further Acceleration of Globalization Capital Account Liberalization Korea Joined OECD in 1996 32 Crisis Hit the Korean Economy in 1997 Massive contraction of the Korean economy By - 5.5% The Value of Currency Plummeted By 40% in1998, relative to that in 1997 Unemployment skyrocketed Unemployment rate in 1998: 7% 2.6% (1997) No of the unemployed in 1998: 1.49 million people 0.57million (1997) 33 Reforms conducted Corporate sector reforms including Chaebols Big deals Public Sector More Foreign firms’ investment Increased FDI, especially M&As Government-led Reforms Reforms slowed down with a quick economic recovery 9.6% p.a. Growth Rate (1999-2000) 34 35 In the Post Asian Financial Crisis period: Globalization and Regional Trading Agreement (RTAs) Actively Pursuing Free Trade Agreements Background Substantial Slowdown of Korean Economy Average Economic Growth Rate (2001-2014): 4% p.a Slow Down of Population Growth and Aging Average Population Growth Rate (2001-2014): 0.5% People with 65 and Older: 13% RTAs expanding rapidly, esp. since the establishment of WTO(Jan1,1995) 604 RTAs Reported to WTO & 398 RTAs are being effective (January, 2015) Free Trade Agreement (FTA): 220 (58%) 36 Source: WTO (http://wto.org/english/tratop_e/region_e/regfac_e.htm) Korea’s FTA Status: FTAs in force (11) Chile, Singapore, EFTA(4), ASEAN(10), India, EU, Peru, USA, Turkey, Australia, Canada FTAs signed (5) Columbia, Turkey, China, New Zealand, Viet Nam 38 Chile April, 2004 Singapore March, 2006 EFTA(4 countries) India September 2006 9(*EFTA: Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, Lichtenstein ) Goods Trade Agreementin June 2007, & Service Trade Agreement in May 2005, Investment Agreement in September 2009 (*ASEAN 10 Countries) January, 2010 EU(28) July 2011 (EU 28 countries) Peru Agust, 2011 USA Turkey (Base Agreement &Goods Trade) Australia March, 2012 Canada January, 2015 Columbia Signed Feb.21, 2013 ASEAN(10 countries) In-Force (11 FTAs) May, 2013 December, 2014 Turkey(Service & Investment) Signed (provisional) July 2014 Signed(5) China June 1, 2015 New Zealand Signed (Provisional) December 11, 2014 Viet Nam December 10, 2014 Indonesia Negotiating 7 time since March 28, 2012 In negotiation (3) Korea-China-Japan RCEP Suspension and Resume negotiation Japan Source: Customs, Korea Negotiating 6 times since November 20,2012 Negotiating 6 times since November 20, 2012 At East Asia Summit (*RCEP : Korea,China, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, ASEAN) Started Negotiation in December 2003 and Negotiation is in suspension in November 2004; 9times meetings to resume the negotiation during 20082012 39 Export (US $ million) Import (US$ million) Export (%) Import (%) With FTA Partners 253,334 206,874 45.6% 40.1% With FTA signed Partners 169,790 91,830 30.6% 17.8% Total Trade 555,632 515,586 40 Korea actively participated bilateral free trade agreement as well as mega-regional trade agreement such as RCEP or TPP Shifting Korea’s Trade Policy paradigm Why? To reduce costs associated with the Spaghetti Bowl Effect Asia is the most active in Global Supply Chain Management Need to help firms to improve efficiency in production To counteract the possible trade diversion effect of megatrading blocs such as EU,NAFTA, MERCOSUR etc. To Tone down regional security threats Can Korea-Kazakhstan be Partners in the era of FTAs and Mega FTAs? 41 42 How Did Korea Achieve it? 7.5% p.a. Economic Growth Rate (1953-2014) With a fairer income distribution Significant Structural Changes Gini Coefficient: 0.344 (1965) => 0.307 (2012) From Primary to Industry From Light Manufacturing to Capital Intensive and Technology Intensive Why? Leaders Committed to Economic Growth and Development Accountability and transparency in International Economic and Trade Policy Outward Orientation Globalization through a main level of openness Strategic, Pro-active Policy makings Competitive Macroeconomic Policy Promoting Competition 43 Rapid economic growth Accompanied a Fair Income Distribution: Gini Coefficient 1965 1970 1976 0.344 0.332 0.391 1990~19 97 0.281~0. 0.357 295 1982 1998 1999 2000 2001 2006 2012 0.316 0.32 0.317 0.319 0.306 0.307 Significant structural changes In Outputs In exports Agriculture-Industry-Service Primary – Manufacturing L-intensive-K-intensive-Knowledge-intensive Export Share (%) Primary Light Manufacturing Heavy and Chemical Manufacturing IT Others 1962 27.5 63.4 9.1 1972 10.3 56.3 33.4 1977 1982 1987 1991 2001 2011 2014 13.8 7.9 6.0 3.5 2.7 2.8 2.2 52.2 43.5 42.3 36.5 16.4 6.2 6.4 34.0 48.6 51.7 60 80.9 91 91.4 15.4 27 22.4 23.9 44.6 53.9 68.6 67.5 44 1953 Primary(Agriculture, Forestry & Fishery) 1962 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2014 30.1% 25.9% 16.6% 9.8% 4.9% 3.3% 2.3% 2.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% Mining 2.0% 3.5% 2.7% Manufacturing 2.8% 4.9% 9.3% 16.9% 20.9% 25.1% 31.6% 32.0% Electricy, Gas and Water 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 2.1% 2.2% 2.1% Construction 3.9% 5.5% 10.0% 10.6% 12.1% 6.8% 4.7% 4.4% Services Source: nso.kr 1.8% 0.9% 1.6% 61.1% 60.0% 60.9% 59.9% 59.8% 62.4% 59.0% 59.1% 45 <1960s-Mid1980s> Gov’t <Mid 1980s-1998> Gov’t Busin ess Peop le Gov’t Entrepreneurial Leadership Busine ss <Post-1998- > Gov’t Peop le Gov’t Leadership & Business Power Busines s People Gov’t Leadership & Business Power & People Power 46 47 Kazakhstan and Korea: Now Area (km2) (ranking) Agricultural Land (%) Population (million; 2015) (ranking) 65 and overs (%) Life Expectancy (years) Population Growth Rate (%; 2014) Birth Rate (per 1000 popltn) (ranking) Fertility Rate(child born per woman) (ranking) GDP (US$) Exports (US$) Major Export Products Imports (US$ Billion) Major Import Products Major Natural Resources Reserves (ranking) Mobile Phone (2014) Internet Users (2014) (ranking) % of Population Military Expenditure (% of GDP) (2012) Source: ciafactbook Kazakhstan 2,724,900 (9th) 77.4 18.2(61th) 7.17 70.6 1.14 Korea 99720 (109th) 18.1 49.1 (28th) 13.00 80 0.14 19.15 (19th) 8.19 (220th) 2.31 (92th) 1.25 (220th) 212.3 billion 87.3 billion 46.7 billion machinery and equipment, metal products, foodstuff 1.41 trillion 572.7 billion semiconductors, petrochemicals, automobile/parts, ships, wireless communication equipment, flat display, steels, 525.5 billion crude oil, petroleum products, semiconductors, coal, steel Crude Oil: 30 billion barrel (12th) Crude oil: 0 barrel Natural Gas: 2.407 trillion m3 (15th) 28 million 10.6 million (45th) 59.3 5.748 billion m3 (89th) 57.2 million 44.9 million (13th) 91.5 1.21 2.8 oil and oil products, natural gas, ferrous metals, chemicals, machinery 48 (USB$ ) Source: Korea Customs Source: Korea Customs Source: Koreaexim Bank 51 Korea’s F야 by Industry (1980-2014) (Invested Amount)(US$M) Manufacturing 31,044, 11% Mining 19,152, 7% 99,112, 35% 22,467, 8% Whole Sales and Retails Banking and Insurance 25,310, 9% Reality and Lease 30,872, 11% 52,962, 19% Source: Koreaexim Bank Speciality, Science and Technology Service Others 52 Korea-Kazakhstan Diplomatic Relationship January 28, 1992 Korea-Kazakhstan Trade has expanded rapidly US$88 million (1993) to US$1468 million(2014) Exports US$41million(1993) to US$907 million (2014) Imports US$ 47 million (1993) to US$ 561 million (2014) But still remained below its potential Year Export (USM$) Import (USM$) Total Trade (USM$) 1993 41 104 57 82 273 604 1,074 907 47 31 51 49 242 334 249 561 88 135 108 131 515 938 1,323 1,468 1998 1999 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 Source: kita.net 53 Source: kita.net 54 Products (SITC 2 digit) Imports Growth Rate (%) Total 560,771 209.9 1 33 Petroleum and Petroleum Products 372,193 - 2 67 95,808 0.1 3 52 72,228 2.9 4 68 13,022 5.0 5 29 6,948 -0.1 6 89 Steel and Iron Inorganic Chemicals Non-ferrous Metal Non specified Unprocessed meat and vegetables Miscellaneous n.e.s 155 75.2 7 59 Chemical Products, n.e.s. 137 -54.7 8 77 Electrical Apparatus and Machinery 80 -30.2 9 26 Textile and Textile Waste 49 - Industrial Machinery and Equipment 46 - 10 74 Source: kita.net Source: kita.net 55 Products(SITC2 digit) Exports (US’000) 906,958 Growth Rate (%) 268.6 388,723 267.4 62,270 34.1 1 78 2 57 Total Automobile Plastics(Materials) 3 76 Communication and Recording Equipment 61,692 52.3 4 77 Electrical Machinery and Equipment 53,077 131.2 5 87 46,981 32.6 6 72 46,832 28.3 7 67 Other Scientific and Control Apparatus and Equipment Special Industrial Machinery Steel and Iron 36,308 108.7 8 74 Industrial Machinery and Equipment 35,129 68.8 9 82 Furniture, Bedding, Mattress etc. 18,418 -4.2 10 09 Other Food and Food stuffs 16,906 6.2 Source: kita.net 56 Industry & Sectors Finance & Insurance Construction Manufacturing Reality and Lease Mining Electricity, Gas and Water Publishing, Broadcasting and Information Services Wholesale and Retails Transportation Art, Sports and Leasures Argiculture, Foresty and Fishery Hotel and Restaurants Special Scientific and Technology Services Total Invested Amount (US$'000) Share (%) 712,062 29.1% 418,546 17.1% 380,832 15.6% 268,457 11.0% 219,120 9.0% 156,039 6.4% 141,268 5.8% 65,730 2.7% 52,279 2.1% 23,103 0.9% 5,508 0.2% 2,088 0.1% 2,024 0.1% In total , US$ 2.45 billion Finance & Insurance (29.1%) Construction (17.1%) Manufacturing (15.6%) Realty and Lease (11.0%) 2,447,216 Source: kita.net 57 Economic partnership between Korea and Kazakhstan In trade and FDI: getting stronger but remained less than its potential Why? Lack of mutual understanding Other reasons? How? 58 59