Macro-prudential lessons from Asia Alex Barrett 2nd November 2010 Thailand Real estate investment boomed given easy bank credits 50.0 Bank loans (% growth) 40.0 Fixed capital formation (% to GDP) 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0 20 03 20 02 20 01 20 00 19 99 19 98 19 97 19 96 19 95 19 94 -20.0 Sources: NESDB, BoT, Standard Chartered Research Saving-investment gap in negative territory due to over investment The current account balance, 1979-2009 15.0 10.0 Current account balance (% of GDP) 5.0 0.0 -5.0 20 09 20 07 20 05 20 03 20 01 19 99 19 97 19 95 19 93 19 91 19 89 19 87 19 85 19 83 19 81 19 79 -10.0 Sources: BoT, Standard Chartered Research 4 Double digits interest rates locally under fixed exchange rate A shift in FX regime to the floating system in July 1997 (%) 18.00 16.00 Prime lending rate 1-yr fixed deposit rate 14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 09 20 07 20 05 20 03 20 01 20 99 19 97 19 95 19 93 19 91 19 89 19 87 19 85 19 83 19 81 19 19 79 0.00 Before July 1997, Thailand adopted the pegged exchange rate regime Under the pegged FX system, FIs borrowed cheap S/T USD and swapped it into THB Sources: BoT, Standard Chartered Research 5 Hong Kong Hong Kong property sector Property prices by segment, vs. previous peak Affordability deteriorating, but still manageable 250 200 150 100 50 Jan-09 Jan-07 Jan-05 Jan-03 Jan-01 Jan-99 Jan-97 0 Class A to C (Low - and mid-end) Class D and E (high-end) Sources: CEIC, Centraline, Midland, Standard Chartered Research Banking system stability Negative equity peaked in 2003 1.6 350 120000 1.4 1.2 300 100000 1.0 0.8 200 80000 0.6 0.4 150 60000 100 40000 180,000 160,000 140,000 250 Mortgage Delinquency Ratio > 3 Months 40,000 20,000 0 20000 2009 2007 2005 0 2003 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 0 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 2001 50 0.2 0.0 2000 (%) Improving asset quality in banks’ balance sheet Negativ e Equity : No of Case (LHS) Mortgage Delinquency Ratio > 6 Months Written Off Value (HKD mn, RHS) Negativ e Equity : Outstanding Loans (HKD mn, RHS) Sources: CEIC, Standard Chartered Research Economic performance – throughout the cycles Hong Kong has experienced 3 recessions after 1997 15% Unemployment rate – still low in historical standards GDP (%y /y ) Personal consumption ex penditure (%y /y ) 3/2010 6/2008 9/2006 12/2004 Mar-10 Mar-08 Mar-06 Mar-04 Mar-02 Mar-00 Mar-98 Mar-96 -10% 3/2003 -5% 6/2001 0% 9/1999 5% 12/1997 10% 3/1996 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Unemploy ment rate (% NSA) Sources: CEIC, Standard Chartered Research Hong Kong property measures – relaxation period 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Chief Executive Tung Che Hwa announced the 85,000 housing units production target Introduction of mortgage interest deduction Cancellation of the Sandwich Class Housing Scheme Introduction of 85% mortgage insurance scheme Temporarily suspension of Home Ownership Scheme, units built were converted into public rental housing Further relaxation of anti-speculative measures Introduction of the Home Starter Loan Scheme Introduction of the Tenants Purchase Scheme – to assist residents to purchase public housing Incorporation of the Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation to develop Hong Kong's secondary mortgage market Temporary suspension of land auction Expansion of the Hong Starter Loan Scheme, and relax applicability requirement to cover residence in public housing Relax pre-sale restriction of residential properties Restarted land auction in April 1999 Proposal to increase stamp duty for properties of value above HKD3mn Chief Executive Tung Che Hwa announced abolition of the 85,000 housing units production target in July 2000 Temporarily suspension of Home Ownership Scheme for another 10 months Introduction of the scheme for 100% refinancing of mortgages in negative equity Sources: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research Hong Kong property measures – relaxation period 2002 2003-2007 Reintroduction of Home Ownership Scheme Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen introduced 9 measures to support the housing market in November 2002 Cancel regular land auction, suspend land supply in the application list for 1 year Suspend auction of projects held by the two rail companies MTRC and KCRC for 1 year Supply of public rental housing to be driven by the market Abolishment of the Home Ownership Scheme New interest-free loan programme for low income families Abolishment of Home Purchase Loan Scheme Abolishment of the Tenants Purchase Scheme Relax redevelopment requirements for old residential buildings Relax internal subscription restrictions for private property projects Stop application for Hong Assistance Loan Scheme in 2003 Introduction of the Home Assistance Loan Scheme to replace the Home Starter Loan Scheme. The scheme provides home purchase assistance towards down-payment and related expenses in the form of interest-free loan or monthly mortgage subsidy Resume land sales in 2004 Relax down-payment limits to 95% in 2004 Reduced stamp duty of properties value between HKD1-2mn to fixed amount of HKD100 Sources: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research Macro prudential measures to contain the risk of housing bubble Oct 23, 2009 Oct 23, 2009 Oct 23, 2009 Loan-to-value ratios for mortgages on properties valued at HKD 20m or more cut to 60% from 70%. LTV cut to 60% for properties valued at HKD 12mn or more, or non-owner-occupied properties. Mortgage for other properties capped at the lower of HKD 7.2mn or 70% LTV Debt servicing ratios (DSRs) of mortgage applicants capped at 50%, and 60% if mortgage rates were to rise by 200bps. The government offers 3 new sites for auction in 2010, increases land supply in the application list in 2011 and 2012, identifies over 20 hectares of rural land for conversion to residential use. To limit speculation, cancellation fees raised to 10% of deposits from 5%, and banned the resale of unfinished new homes before transactions. Government pledged to supply 61,000 private residential flat over 3-4 years Mortgage for properties valued at below HKD 20m capped at the lower of HKD 12m or 70% LTV. Temporarily excluded real estate investment from the Capital Investment Entrant Scheme Introduced a new "rent-to-buy" scheme and tightened disclosure of usable areas of buildings. Sources: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research Appendix – Regulatory framework of licensed banks in Hong Kong Minimum monthly average liquidity ratio of 25%, calculated as the Liquidity ratio of liquefiable assets (e.g. marketable debt securities and loans repayable within one month subject to their respective liquidity conversion factors) to qualifying liabilities (basically all liabilities due within one month). Minimum CAR of 8%, but the Monetary Authority may under section 101 of the Ordinance increase the minimum ratio to not more than 16% Capital Adequacy Regular statutory returns cover information on assets and liabilities, Reporting profit and loss, capital adequacy (in respect of credit risk, market risk and operational risk), liquidity, large exposures, loan classification, foreign exchange position, interest rate risk, and include a certificate of compliance with various requirements under the Banking Ordinance. Submission of returns is normally made each month or quarter. Sources: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research Singapore Nominal property price index rose to yet another record in Q3-2010 but not yet in real terms, and pace of increase moderated Sources: Standard Chartered Global Research, CEIC Property prices & rental rates y/y increase 60% 50% Property price index Rental index 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% M ar M 91 ar M 92 ar M 93 ar M 94 ar M 95 ar M 96 ar M 97 ar M 98 ar M 99 ar M 00 ar M 01 ar M 02 ar M 03 ar M 04 ar M 05 ar M 06 ar M 07 ar M 08 ar M 09 ar -1 0 -40% Sources: SCB Global Research, CEIC M 91 ar M 92 ar M 93 ar M 94 ar M 95 ar M 96 ar M 97 ar M 98 ar M 99 ar M 00 ar M 01 ar M 02 ar M 03 ar M 04 ar M 05 ar M 06 ar M 07 ar M 08 ar M 09 ar -1 0 ar M Property prices & rental rates q/q increase 20% Property price index Rental index 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Sources: SCB Global Research, CEIC Jul, 2010 Jan, 2010 Jul, 2009 Jan, 2009 Jul, 2008 Jan, 2008 Jul, 2007 Jan, 2007 Jul, 2006 Jan, 2006 Jul, 2005 Jan, 2005 Jul, 2004 Jan, 2004 Jul, 2003 Jan, 2003 Jul, 2002 Jan, 2002 Jul, 2001 Jan, 2001 Jul, 2000 Jan, 2000 Jul, 1999 Jan, 1999 Jul, 1998 Jan, 1998 Jul, 1997 Jan, 1997 Jul, 1996 Jan, 1996 Jul, 1995 Jan, 1995 Private residential transaction value now well exceeds 1997, but still below 2007 Residential property monthly transactions value (SGD mn) 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Sources: Standard Chartered Research, CEIC What was done in 1997? The government tried to stem this bubble by increasing land sales to increase the supply of residential units. And it also introduced more draconian measures to curb speculation including; Housing loans limited to 80% (from 90%) for property purchase Capital gains tax from the sale of properties bought within 3 years Additional stamp duty within 3 years of purchase of properties for sellers Stamp duty for buyers of sales and sub-sales of uncompleted properties Foreigners were disallowed from taking housing loans Permanent residents were limited to only one housing loan Under the weight of the tightening measures combined with the impact of the onset of the Asian Financial Crisis, the property market subsequently tanked. The private residential property index peaked at 181.4 in June 1996 and contracted for the next 2 and half years by nearly 45% from the peak. What is being done now? In its management of asset price inflation, the Singapore government announced 3 batches of cooling measures for private and public residential property market aimed at curtailing demand and expanding supply. Even as the economy was still on the mend, the government implemented the first set of benign anti-speculative measures on 14 September 2009: Reinstatement of the Confirmed List for the 1st Half 2010 Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme. Removal of the Interest Absorption Scheme (IAS) and Interest-Only Housing Loans (IOL), with effect from 14 Sep 2009. Non-extension of the Jan 2009 Budget assistance measures for the property market when the measures expire. On 19 February 2010, the government introduced the 2nd set of measures: Lowering the Loan-to-Value (LTV) limit to 80% for all housing loans provided by financial institutions Introducing a Seller’s Stamp Duty (SSD) on all residential properties and residential lands that are bought after today and sold within 1 year from the date of purchase On 30 August 2010, the Singapore Government announced the 3rd set of measures: lower loan-to-value (LTV) for second mortgages of 70% from 80%; increase cash down payments for second mortgages to 10% from 5%; apply Seller Stamp Duty for properties sold within 3 years of purchase from 1 year; higher income ceiling for public housing Design-Build-Sell-Scheme (DBSS) flats to S$10,000/household from S$8,000/household; increase public housing supply to 22,000 units in 2011 from 16,000 units in 2010; tighten public housing rules to ensure public housing is primarily for owner occupation, discouraging investment in public housing for rental yield. Singapore private property price index BEFORE the antispeculative measures implemented in May 1996 Forecasts Source: Real Estate Developers' Association of Singapore (REDAS) Singapore private property price index AFTER the antispeculative measures implemented in May 1996 Source: Real Estate Developers' Association of Singapore (REDAS) China A super-cycle of world GDP growth Actual world GDP growth Average world GDP growth 10% 8% 1946-1973: 5.0% 6% 1870-1913: 2.7% 2000-2030: 3.6% 4% 1820-1870: 1.7% 2% 0% 1973-1999: 2.8% -2% -4% 1913-1946: 1.7% -6% -8% -10% '1820 '1840 '1860 '1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Sources: Maddison, IMF, Standard Chartered Research Emerging markets dominate by 2030 Nominal GDP 2010, USD 62trn % of global Nominal GDP 2030, USD 309trn % of global US 12% EU-27 27% US 24% EU-27 14% CIS 5% Japan 3% ROW 5% Latam 9% CIS 3% MENA 6% Japan 10% Latam 6% SSA 5% MENA 3% SSA 2% China 23% ROW 6% Asia ex CIJ India 6% 3% China 10% Sources: IMF, Standard Chartered Research Asia ex CIJ 8% India 10% Sources: IMF, Standard Chartered Research Monetary conditions are very loose Select economies real interest rates % -2.6% -1.6% -0.2% -0.8% UK -1.9% -0.4% Euro area South Korea China -0.9% US Hong Kong India -2.1% +1.8% Brazil Singapore +2.2% Indonesia Australia +2.0% Note: This map is for illustrative purposes only and is based off 3 month interbank rates minus annualised CPI; Source: Standard Chartered Research Ongoing inflow into emerging markets The stimulus is ending The CNY 4trn package: official Healthcare, Innovation Welfare housing education, culture 1% 7% 4% Enviromental conservation 9% Rural infrastructure 9% Roads, railways, airport, power grids 45% Earthquake zone 25% Outstanding investment project growth stabilising New project, y/y %, 3mma Total project under construction, y/y %, 3mma 60 40 20 0 -20 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sources: CEIC, Standard Chartered Research Fairly easy monetary policy…still New lending growth under control Short term and bill finance, RMB bn Medium and long term, RMB bn 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Household mortgage demand strong Corporates Households 1,800 1,500 1,200 900 600 300 0 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Sources: CEIC, Standard Chartered Research Wages up, incomes up Migrant wages, real growth, CNY, y/y %, Urban incomes rising, too Disposable income, real, y/y % Consumption expenditure, real, y/y % 18 25% 16 20% 14 12 15% 10 8 10% 6 4 5% 2 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sources: CASS, CEIC, Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research Bubbles in China House prices, average Selling Pries (ASP), CNY per sqm sold Beijing Haikou Shanghai Tianjin Shenzhen Xian Hangzhou Wuhan Guangzhou Chengdu 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Sources: CRIC, Standard Chartered Research A Chinese luxury wedding Sources: OMG Policy mistakes in the west Unemployment in the US in 5 recessions % of workforce vs weeks from start of recession Interest rates and inflation in Europe and the US % Euro area (inflation) 3M Euribor 7.5% 6.5% 5.5% US (inflation) 3m USD Libor 5 4.5% 3.5% 4 2.5% 1.5% 0.5% 3 % -0.5% -1.5% 2 -2.5% Negative real rates In the US -3.5% -4.5% 1 -5.5% 37 35 33 31 29 27 25 23 21 19 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 3 1 -6.5% 0 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Mar-53 Jul-74 May-81 Mar-90 Nov-07 Policy mistakes in the west Disclaimer This communication is issued by Standard Chartered Bank (“Standard Chartered” or “we”), a firm authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom’s Financial Services Authority. 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