Global Economy: Zero Taper, More Uncertainty!
Presentation to:
Hines
Ann Arbor, MI
September 26, 2013
Presented by:
Komal S. Sri-Kumar, Ph.D.
President
Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, Inc.
This publication is for information purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. While the information and statistical data contained herein are based on sources
believed to be reliable, we do not represent that it is accurate and should not be relied on as such or be the basis for an investment decision. Any opinions expressed are current only as
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solicitation to an offer to buy, any security. Nothing contained herein should be considered a recommendation or advice to purchase or sell any security. Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, Inc.,
or its employees or clients may have positions in securities or investments mentioned in this publication, which positions may change at any time without notice. ©Copyright 2013 2500
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Syria Conflict, Washington Gridlock Major Factors
• Growth to Slow Markedly
• No Hike in Rates Before 2016
• Unemployment Rate to Stay Elevated
• Structural Adjustments are Key
• Housing Remains a Positive Factor
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U.S. Unemployment: Still an Unhappy Story
• Jobs Created are Mostly Part-Time
• Broad-Based Unemployment Rate Rises
• Long-Term Unemployment Still Sizable
• Participation Rate Near Historic Lows
• Fiscal Incentive Should Focus on Job Creation
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Bernanke Boost: For Markets, Not Economy!
• Fed Introduced QE – Infinity Last Week!
• May 22 Speech Raised Bond Yields Sharply
• “Wealth Effect” Yet to Speed Economic Growth
• Market Distortions are Increasing
• Ballooning Portfolio Limits Fed’s Flexibility
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S&P 500: Fed, Global Macro Drive Index
Source: Bloomberg
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Expect Further Bond Rally After Recent Correction
UST 10-Year
Source: Bloomberg
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U-6 Unemployment Stubbornly High
Source: Bloomberg
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U.S. Home Prices: Brightening Prospects
Source: Bloomberg
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U.S. & Germany Unemployment Rates (%)
Source: Bloomberg
Europe in Remission, Not Cured
• Recession Over but Stagnant Economy
• Deposit Confiscation in Cyprus a Bad Precedent
• Spain, Greece Suffer High Unemployment
• France: Isolated in Globalized World!
• ECB: Further Easing Promised
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Emerging Markets: Facing Bernanke Effect
• Significantly Slower Growth in 2013
• Brazil and India: Currencies Under Pressure
• Social Opposition Grows in Brazil, Turkey
• China: Good-bye, Double Digit Growth!
• Russia: Politics Vs. Growth Potential
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Investment Strategies for an Uncertain World
• Deflation First But Inflation to Follow
• Short the Euro!
• Real Estate to be Effective Inflation Hedge
• REITs: Continued Benefit from Easy Money
• Europe’s Distress is Major Opportunity
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Investing for the short-and-long-term
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Biography
Komal S. Sri-Kumar, Ph.D
President
Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, Inc.
Dr. Komal S. Sri-Kumar is President of the Santa Monica, California based Sri-Kumar Global
Strategies, Inc., a macroeconomic consulting firm he formed in January 2013 to advise
multinational firms and sovereign wealth funds on global risk and opportunities. Prior to
founding the firm, Sri worked at the Los Angeles-based Trust Company of the West (TCW) from
1990 to 2012, serving for the last several years as the firm’s Chief Global Strategist. He has
been Chairman of TCW’s Comprehensive Asset Allocation Committee since 1997, and will
continue to serve TCW clients in that capacity.
Before his work at TCW, Sri was Senior Vice President at the Beverly Hills-based Drexel
Burnham Lambert, and Executive Vice President of DBL Americas, specializing in country risk
analysis.
He is a Senior Fellow at the Milken Institute, and is a member of the Columbia University
Graduate School of Arts and Sciences Alumni Board. His articles and interviews have been
published in the Financial Times, Wall Street Journal and the New York Times. He is often
interviewed on CNBC, Bloomberg Radio and TV, and Fox Business.
Sri holds an M.A. in Economics from the Delhi School of Economics, and M.Phil and Ph.D.
degrees from Columbia University. His doctoral dissertation at Columbia University was
supervised by Robert Mundell, Nobel Laureate in Economics (1999).
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