12 Fiscal Policy McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2012 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Fiscal Policy • Deliberate changes in: • Government spending • Taxes • 2009 Stimulus Package included • LO1 roughly $550 billion in new spending and $275 billion in tax reductions. Designed to: • Achieve full-employment • Control inflation • Encourage economic growth 30-2 Expansionary Fiscal Policy • Used during a recession • Increase government spending • Decrease taxes • Combination of both • Creates a deficit LO1 30-3 Expansionary Fiscal Policy $5 billion increase in spending Recessions Decrease AD Price level AS Full $20 billion increase in aggregate demand P1 AD1 AD2 $490 What is the MPC? $510 Real GDP (billions) LO1 30-4 Contractionary Fiscal Policy • Used during demand-pull inflation • Decrease government spending • Increase taxes • Combination of both • Create a surplus LO1 30-5 Contractionary Fiscal Policy $3 billion initial decrease in spending Price level AS P2 P1 c Full $12 billion decrease in aggregate demand b a AD2 AD AD1 3 $510 $522 Real GDP (billions) LO1 30-6 Policy Options: G or T? • To expand the size of government • If recession, then increase • LO1 government spending • If inflation, then increase taxes To reduce the size of government • If recession, then decrease taxes • If inflation, then decrease government spending 30-7 Built-In Stability • Automatic stabilizers • Taxes vary directly with GDP • Transfer payments vary inversely with • • LO2 GDP Reduces severity of business fluctuations Progressive tax system 30-8 Built-In Stabilizers Government expenditures, G, and tax revenues, T T Surplus G Deficit Note: The red line, indicating govt. expenditures, should actually slope downward. Why? GDP1 GDP2 GDP3 Real domestic output, GDP LO2 30-9 Recent U.S. Fiscal Policy Federal Deficits (-) and Surpluses (+) as Percentages of GDP, 2000-2009 (1) Year (2) Actual Deficit – or Surplus + (3) Cyclically Adjusted Deficit – or Surplus +* 2000 +2.4 +1.1 2001 +1.3 +0.5 2002 -1.5 -1.3 2003 -3.4 -2.7 2004 -3.5 -3.2 2005 -2.6 -2.5 2006 -1.9 -2.0 2007 -1.2 -1.2 2008 -3.2 -2.8 2009 -9.9 -7.3 •As a percentage of potential GDP Source: Congressional Budget Office, http://www.cbo.gov. LO3 30-13 Budget Deficits and Projections Actual Projected Budget Deficit (-) or Surplus, Billions $200 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 -1000 -1200 -1400 -1600 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Source: Congressional Budget Office, http://www.cbo.gov. LO4 30-15 Global Perspective LO4 30-16 The U.S. Public Debt Debt held outside the Federal government and the Federal Reserve: 57% LO4 Debt held by the Federal government and the Federal Reserve: 43% 30-20 Crowding-Out Effect This diagram demonstrates the “crowding out” effect. Real interest rate (percent) 16 14 12 b 10 8 a 6 Crowding-out effect 4 ID2 2 ID1 0 LO4 c Increase in investment demand 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Investment (billions of dollars) 40 However, most economists believe that increased AD will spur businesses to new investment (increase investment demand) if the economy is not at full employment. 30-25