Building Blocks of Research
Process
Chapter 2:
Alan Monroe
Theories, Hypotheses, and Operational
Definitions (17)
Theory: Concept 1 is related to Concept 2
Hypothesis: Variable 1 is related to Variable 2
Operational Definition: How variables are measured
Theories, Hypotheses, and Operational
Definitions (17)
Example: Modernization Theory
Theory: economic development is related to political
development
Hypothesis: The more industrialized a nation, the greater the
level of mass political participation.
Operational Definition: The higher percentage of
manufacturing jobs, as measured by United Nations
Yearbook, the higher the percentage of people who voted in
the last national election, according to the Stateman’s
Yearbook.
Theories, Hypotheses, and Operational
Definitions (17)
Theory
It is a set of empirical generalizations about a topic. It is too
general to test since it makes statements about the
relationship between abstract concepts.
To test a theory, it has to be brought down to more specific
terms. (17)
Theories, Hypotheses, and Operational
Definitions (17)
Hypotheses
This is done by testing hypotheses, which is an empirical
statement derived from a theory. They are statements about
variables.
Variables:
They are empirical properties that can take on two or more
different values.
…
Theories, Hypotheses, and Operational
Definitions (17)
Operational Definition
But even variables are not specific enough. Each variable in a
hypothesis must have an operational definition, that is, a set
of directions as to how the variable is to be observed and
measured.
…
Types of Hypotheses (19)
Univariate: making a statement about only one property or
variable. (19)
Multivariate: a statement about how two or more variables
are related.
Most hypotheses are multivariate and Directional, that is,
they suggest not only how the variables are related but
what the direction of the relationship is. (19)
Types of Hypotheses (19)
Types of Directional Relationships: Positive/Negative
Positive: variables move in the same direction: as income rises,
so does voting
Negative (or Inverse): Variables move in opposite directions: as
income rises, homelessness drops.
…
Theoretical Role (20)
In most multivariate hypotheses, each variable takes on a
particular theoretical role.
Independent Variable: the cause of something
Dependent Variable: the effect
It is not always easy to determine the IV and DV.
Control Variables: when they are used the intent is to
ensure their effects are excluded.
Variables are property of the unit of analysis: the objects that the
hypothesis describes.
Units of Analysis (22)
Two common Units of Analysis:
Individuals:
Indicates either people in general, or a specific type of
person (elected official, union member, etc). It can also
refer to institutions, such as interest groups,
corporations, political parties. What you are doing is
looking at how an “individual” unit, a person, a party is
behaving.
Groups:
Analyze group behavior, such as performance on some
test. You don’t go down to the individual. How did
Democratic state legislators vote on a particular issue, as
a group?
…
Ecological Fallacy: (22-23)
Ecological Fallacy erroneously drawing conclusions about
individuals from groups. Solution: only draw conclusion
about the units of analysis from which the data is actually
drawn.
Example of Ecological Fallacy:
Student found a strong positive (directional) relationship
between proportion of a county that was Afro-American and
those that voted for George Wallace and assumed AfroAmericans voted for Wallace.
In fact, virtually no minorities supported Wallace. All the
student really could say is that counties with a high number
of Afro-Americans voted for Wallace. The county, not AfroAmericans was the unit of analysis.
Operational Definitions (25)
Testing a hypothesis requires precise operational definitions
specifying how each Variable will be measured. If a variable
cannot be operationally defined, it cannot be measured.
Operational Definitions: Two Requirements:
1) It must specify what we want to know
2) And where (or how) we will get that information.
EXAMPLES: Levels of Research: (18)
Theory: Concept 1 is related to Concept 2
Hypothesis: Variable 1 is related to Variable 2
Operational Definition:
Theory: economic development is related to political
development
Hypothesis: The more industrialized a nation, the greater the
level of mass political participation.
Operational Definition: The higher percentage of
manufacturing jobs, as measured by United Nations
Yearbook, the higher the percentage of people who voted in
the last national election, according to the Stateman’s
Yearbook.
EXAMPLES: Levels of Research: (18)
Theory: Economic status effects political participation
Hypothesis: The higher a person’s income, the more likely they
are to vote
Operational Definition: The higher someone’s income is, as
determined by a poll, the more likely they are to say they vote,
on the same poll.
Examples of Units of Analysis and IV and DV:
Hypothesis: The better the state of the economy, the greater
the proportion of votes received by the party of the
president.
Independent Variable: State of the Economy
Dependent Variable: proportion of votes
Unit of Analysis: Elections
Hypothesis: The more negative the advertising in a Senatorial
campaign, the lower the turnout rate.
Independent Variable: negativity of ads
Dependent Variable: turnout
Unit of Analysis: US states (elections)
…
Examples
Hypothesis: Media attention is necessary for a candidate to
succeed in a primary election.
Independent Variable: media attention
Dependent Variable: electoral success
Unit of Analysis: elections
Hypothesis: Southern states have less party competition than
Northern states.
Independent Variable: region
Dependent Variable: party competition
Unit of Analysis: states
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