Wind Energy Technology:
A Global Opportunity for our
Environment, Economic
Development and Energy Security
Randall Swisher
Executive Director (Retired)
American Wind Energy Association
Presentation Overview
● Electric Industry Basics
● Wind Technology Basics
● A Brief History
● Wind’s Current Market Status
● What is Wind’s Potential?
● What are the Challenges?
Electric
Industry
Basics
Sources of U.S. Electricity
2008 Share of Net Generation by Energy Source*
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Coal:
Natural Gas:
Nuclear:
Hydropower:
Wind:
Petroleum:
Other:
48.5%
21.3%
19.7%
6.1%
1.4%
1.1%
1.9%
What role does each play?
Regional differences?
Operational characteristics?
*Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
What is the common characteristic of these generating sources?
Power System Operations
• Supply and demand must match at all times
• Demand and supply are both variable and uncertain.
• Grid operators hold generation in reserve:
• Regulation reserves
• Load-following reserves
• Contingency reserves
• Reserves are shared for
all sources of variability
Wind
Technology
Basics
What’s Inside a Nacelle?
Advances in Power Electronics
● Modern wind turbines are
equipped with power
electronics.
● They process over 200
types of data, from wind
speeds and oil
temperature to voltage
dips on the grid.
● An entire wind farm can
be monitored from a
laptop.
Economies of Scale Drive Down Wind Cost
20 Years of Wind Technology Development
Rotor (Meter)
KW
Total Cost
Cost/kW
MWh
1981
10
25
$65
$2,600
45
1985
17
100
$165
$1,650
220
1990
27
225
$300
$1,333
550
1996
40
550
$580
$1,050
1,480
1999
50
750
$730
$950
2,200
2000
71
1,650
$1,300
$790
5,600
Bottom Line: 1981-2000 = 124x the energy, 20x the cost;
Today’s Turbines are Big!
● Hub Height:
60-100 meters
(197-328 feet)
● Rotor Diameter:
70-100 meters
(230-328 feet)
● Total Weight of
Turbine:
230 - 340 tons
How big is a V80 2.0 MW
This picture shows how big a
V80 2.0 MW is compared with
a Boeing 747 JUMBO JET
How much Electricity does a
1.5 MW Wind Turbine Produce?
● A 1.5 Megawatt (MW) wind
turbine should generate about
5 million kWh annually.*
● Using national averages, that
is equivalent to the electric
needs of about 500 homes.
*35% capacity factor
Power in the Wind
2
(W/m )
= 1/2 x air density x swept rotor area x (wind speed)3
A
V3

Density = P/(RxT)
P - pressure (Pa)
R - specific gas constant (287 J/kgK)
T - air temperature (K)
kg/m3
Area =  r2
m2
Instantaneous Speed
(not mean speed)
m/s
Bottom Line: 12 mph wind has 70% more power than 10 mph wind
The Wind Industry:
A Brief History
In the 1980s, the U.S. led the World in Wind Technology
● The first successful windfarms were
established in 1981 in California
● Many U.S. turbine manufacturers
were established in the early 80s
● By 1989, the U.S. was home to 90%
of the world’s installed wind
capacity – almost all in California
But We Turned our Backs on the Opportunity
● The DOE Wind R&D budget
was cut 90% through the
1980s
● The wind investment tax
credit was abruptly ended in
1986
• Most U.S. turbine
manufacturers went out of
business
• No new U.S. wind market
emerged until 1997 – Iowa
and Minnesota
Europe Took the Lead in the 1990s
● Strong market incentives in Denmark, Germany
and Spain led to a thriving turbine manufacturing
industry
• Germany was the largest single market until
2008
• This European leadership made possible
wind’s current competitiveness
Today, the Global Industry has Three Key Markets
● Europe – 66,000 MW (end of 2008)
• Most manufacturers based in Europe
● North America – 27,500 MW
• The U.S. is now the largest single market, and
all major global companies want to participate
● Asia – 25,000 MW
• Chinese market growing most quickly, and
establishing a strong manufacturing base
2009 Market
The U.S. Wind Market Today
Outlook
U.S. is World Leader in Wind Power
With over 31,OOO MW,
the U.S. is now the #1
wind energy producer in
the world
U.S. Leads World in Installed Wind Capacity
• The U.S.
overtook Germany
in 2008 with the
most installed
wind power
capacity
Source: AWEA
Record Breaking Installation and Growth
25,000 MW
Annual Additions
20,000 MW
Cumulative Capacity
Ten year
annual
average
growth
rate of
29%
15,000 MW
2008 Installed: 8,545 MW
2008 Total: 25,400 MW
10,000 MW
5,000 MW
Source: AWEA
Percentage of Generation Added by Year
Wind is #2 source for past four years
• 8,558 MW added
in 2008
• 42% of all new
generating
facilities added
in 2008 were
wind power
plants
U.S. Wind Power Capacity (MW)
Washington
1,375
Oregon
1,067
California
2,517
Montana
272
North
Maine
Minnesota
Dakota
47
1,752
VT
714
Idaho
6 NH
South
75
25
Wisconsin
Dakota
New York
MA
395
Wyoming
187
832
Michigan
RI
5
676
129
1
Iowa
Penn.
Nebraska
NJ
2,790
361
Ohio
73
Indiana
8
Utah
7
Illinois 131
Colorado
WV
20
915
Kansas
1,068
330
815
Missouri
163
Tennessee
Oklahoma
Under 100 MW
29
New Mexico
708
100 MW-500 MW
497
Over 1,000 MW
Texas
7,116
Alaska
3
Hawaii
63
Source: AWEA, January 2009
Total 25,170 MW
Market Drivers Contributing to Wind’s Growth
●
●
●
●
●
●
Economics - Wind competes well in many regions
Federal and State Policies
Wind’s Environmental Benefits
The New Energy Economy - Jobs
Public Support
Other major generation sources constrained
• Coal’s carbon risk
• Gas price volatility
• Nuclear capital costs/perceived risk
Wind Power is Cost-Competitive
Estimated Capital Cost of New Generation
Source: FERC, Increasing Costs in Electric Markets, 2008
Cost of Energy: Standard & Poor’s, 2007
$130
$120
$110
Cost of Energy ($/MWh)
$100
$90
$80
$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
Coal (PC) Coal (PC)
w/CCS
Coal
(IGCC)
Coal
(IGCC)
w/CCS
Natural
Gas (CC)
Natural
Gas (CC)
w/ CCS
Nuclear
Wind
Interconnection Queues Are Clogged
with Wind Projects: Nearly 300 GW!
Nameplate Capacity (GW)
350
Entered Queue in 2008
Total in Queue at end of 2008
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Wind
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
2008 Wind Market Report; LBL
Solar
Other
Growing the
Wind Industry:
What’s the Potential?
20% Wind Energy by 2030
The U.S. possesses
sufficient and affordable
wind resources to obtain
at least 20% of its
electricity from wind by
the year 2030.
U.S. Department of Energy,
May 2008
20% Wind Energy by 2030
Wind capacity has already doubled in the past three years
8,300 MW -- 42% of new
U.S. capacity -- added in
2008
Job Projections Under 20% Report
• Over 500,000
total jobs would
be supported
by the wind
industry
Source: U.S. DOE, 20% Wind Energy by 2030
CO2 Reductions From Electricity Sector
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
No New Wind Scenario CO2 emissions
20% Wind Scenario CO2 emissions
USCAP path to 80% below today’s levels by 2050
1,000
500
0
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
2026
2030
Source: U.S. DOE, 20% Wind Energy by 2030
Challenges to
Achieving
Wind’s
Potential
Key Barriers to Achieving 20% Wind
1. Immediate Need to fix the financial system
2. Need for long-term stable federal policy
3. Need for transmission infrastructure
Lack of Stable Policy Inhibits Investment
● Need a stable long-term federal policy
• Long-term federal production tax credit (PTC)
• Federal renewable energy standard (RES)
• Climate policy
Transmission Infrastructure
● The lack of transmission
infrastructure is the single
greatest long-term
strategic constraint facing
the wind industry.
● There is a growing
recognition of this barrier
by policymakers
Green Power Superhighways
• Link areas with vast supplies of renewables to areas of
high electricity demand green power superhighways
• Improve grid operations
What do you do when the wind doesn’t blow?
● Wind is an energy resource, not a capacity resource
● Take the wind when it blows, rely on the utility’s hundreds
of other power plants when it doesn’t
● As wind takes a larger role, the electric system will add
more flexible resources . . .
• Demand-response
• Efficient gas-fired turbines
• Incremental hydro
• Energy storage
● And it will consolidate control areas and use generating
resources more efficiently
● Storage is not necessary to reach 20% wind
Strong Winds are on the Horizon
The Future
Looks Bright
for Wind
Power
● For additional information:
www.awea.org
rswisher@awea.org