In the book, “Don’t Believe Everything You Think,” Kida emphasizes six main mistakes
we make when forming beliefs. First, we prefer stories to statistics. This means that we are more
likely to believe something that someone has told us rather than the statistics on that topic (Kida
17). Second, we seek to confirm. That is, we seek out information that supports our existing
beliefs and expectations while ignoring the evidence against them (Kida 18). Third, we rarely
appreciate the role of chance and coincidence in life. We like to rule out the possibility that the
rules of probability may be the only explanation for a correlation (Kida 87). Fourth, we can
misperceive the world. If we want or expect something to happen, we can truly believe that it did
happen even if it didn’t (Kida 102). Fifth, we oversimplify. Humans use general rules of thumb
to simplify complicated judgments. These rules are critical because otherwise, we would spend
way too much time making even the simplest decisions but they can also get us into trouble
(Kida 167). Finally, we have faulty memories. As time passes, new experiences can change the
memory we have for past experiences, without us even knowing it. In effect, our memory is a
reconstruction of the past (Kida 202).
These six basic mistakes are common in today’s world. People make them almost every
day. Take for example, seeking to confirm. I love diet soda. However, I heard that it can have
harmful effects on your health even though it doesn’t have any calories. I Google searched “is
diet soda harmful?” There were several articles explaining the dangers of diet soda as well as
articles stating that all the supposed dangers were a hoax. Since I didn’t want the dangers of diet
soda to be true, I skipped the ones against diet soda and only read the ones trying to disprove the
allegations against the beverage. Even though I may not have realized it, I was simply looking
for some shred of proof that diet soda wasn’t really harmful without taking into account the
evidence proving the harmful effects if diet soda.
People rarely appreciate the role of chance and coincidence in life. For example, many
swimmers on my swim team have various rituals they perform before a big race. One of my
teammates would only eat oatmeal for breakfast before a meet. She claimed that every time she
ate oatmeal before a race, she would drop time. However, this was not the case. Whether she ate
oatmeal or not, sometimes she would race well, other times she wouldn’t. I fall into the same trap
sometimes. If I race well at one meet, I try to repeat everything I did prior to that meet at the next
one, thinking that something I did must have helped. I also think that there can’t be any harm in
repeating actions that I did prior to a good race. For me, it helps me feel like I have some control
in the results of my races. Deep down, I know that these rituals most likely have no affect on my
performance; however I, like many people, have trouble believing in coincidences.
Misperceiving the world does not only include physically seeing something that isn’t
there but it also includes seeing associations that aren’t there. According to an article printed by
Medical News Today, researchers at Michigan State University have apparently found that
individuals who are married tend to be happier in life than unmarried people (“Married People”).
It is hard to accept the article’s claim because “happiness” is very subjective and is therefore
hard to measure. There could also be a third factor involved that the researchers did not consider.
Many things contribute to happiness such as personality, job status, and economic status, etc.
There are several factors that could have influenced the results which makes this a classic
example of how we misperceive our world. In effect, correlation does not necessarily imply
causation.
Making decisions can be very complex. Sometimes, the amount of information available
is overwhelming. If we paid attention to all of it, we would spend more time gathering
information than evaluating it (Kida 20). However, this means we can oversimplify. We simplify
our decisions when deciding on whether a sport may be dangerous, when searching for the ideal
job, and during many other situations. After the attack on the World Trade Center on 9/11/2001,
the stereotype that the Islam population was out to harm American citizens intensified and hate
crimes against Muslims increased dramatically. A mosque right here in Harrisonburg, VA was
vandalized on Sept. 14, 2012. Worshippers arrived to the mosque to find graffiti scrawled on the
building, including obscene and racial insults against “Irakis” and a warning: “This is America,”
followed by another racial slur. Some speculate that the attack could have been prompted by a
new wave of anti-American violence that has swept the Middle East (Constable). Some people
believe that all Middle Easterners are violent and dangerous to Americans because of the 9/11
tragedy as well as other violent protests heard about on the news. This vandalism attack is one
example of how stereotypes and oversimplifying in general can be dangerous. Even though
vandalism doesn’t cause physical harm to people, it makes innocent people uncomfortable near
their own home and it can even escalate to violent attacks.
Another reason our beliefs might not always be true is because we have faulty memories.
Many people believe that everything we learn is permanently stored in the mind, and even
though particular details are not always accessible, through hypnosis, or other special techniques,
these inaccessible details can be recovered (Kida 202). However, some memories are
permanently lost and hypnosis can lead to recovering false memories. It happens to everyday
people and numerous cases of it have been reported. In 1986, Nadean Cool sought therapy to
deal with her reaction to a traumatic event experienced by her daughter. Cool’s therapist used
hypnosis which led Cool to believe that she had had repressed memories of everything from
being forced to eat babies to being forced to watch the murder of her best friend when she was
eight years old. Cool eventually realized these horrific memories were false and sued her
therapist for $2.4 million (Loftus). This article proves Kida’s point of humans having faulty
memories. We cannot remember everything that happened to us and by means of unconventional
techniques, we can be tricked into believing things that didn’t happen. This, as Kida mentions,
can have devastating consequences. Innocent people have been sent to prison based on the
testimonies of people who recovered false repressed memories.
The final point that Kida tries to make is that we prefer stories to statistics. We are more
likely to believe what people tell us rather than the actual statistics on the subject. For example,
my friend Blake wanted to be an architect. He researched the growth on architecture and found
that architects have the highest unemployment. He talked to his parents about it and they told
him about a friend of theirs who just recently graduated with a degree in architecture and found
work right away. They told him that as long as he goes to a good architecture school, he will be
guaranteed a job. Parents have a powerful affect on their children and Blake was more convinced
by his parents’ story than the research he did on the job growth of architecture. He is now
studying architecture at Syracuse University. Even though it is important to go into a field that
you are interested in, convincing yourself that you will be guaranteed a job straight out of college
because of something someone else told you can be risky. Everyone’s situation is different and
Blake committed the mistake of believing he will be as lucky as his parents’ friend because he
believed a story over the statistics.
After reading, Don’t Believe Everything You Think, I now believe that all of Kida’s main
points have a strong impact on the world and that everyone has most likely committed them at
some point. I think the fact that we have such faulty memories is the most significant of the six
main points. The fact that we can permanently lose parts of our past and can be convinced into
believing something happened when it really didn’t is very alarming. Kida talks about the
researchers that interviewed students after the Challenger explosion. Researchers asked them
how they first heard the news and then asked them the same question two and a half years later.
Most of the students said their two-and-a-half memories were accurate however not one of their
memories was entirely correct, and more than a third were very inaccurate. The students were so
confident in their memories that they insisted their current memories were more accurate than
what they said right after the Challenger exploded (Kida 203). This is very alarming to me
because if we can’t vividly remember something as tragic as the Challenger explosion, then
other memories must be lost as well and can be replaced with inaccurate recollections. As Kida
mentioned, this can cause people to be sent to jail for horrific crimes that they did not even
commit! After reading Don’t Believe Everything You Think, I am more aware when I am forming
my beliefs because I now know that even though the capabilities the brain has are very useful,
they can also cause us to form irrational beliefs and those beliefs can have dire consequences.