Portfolio Analysis: Dashboard Diagnostics
“Moving The Cheese”
January 20, 2010
Presented by:
Mark Robertson
Founder and Managing Partner – www.manifestinvesting.com
Dashboard Diagnostics
Club History & Characteristics
Club Name: “Anonymous” (Cheese Movers)
Location: Midwest
# of Members: 16 (Ladies)
Founded: 1994
The group includes a retired banker, a nurse, retailer,
small business owner, dietician, physician’s
assistant, teacher and a lawyer ...
The genesis of the club is a quest for learning. The
ladies wanted to learn more about investing and
the world of finance without involving their
husbands or stock brokers.
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Dashboard Diagnostics
Club Long-Term Performance (5-Year Returns)
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Dashboard Diagnostics
Current Dashboard (Report Card)
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Dashboard Diagnostics
1. Return Expectations ...
PAR
0%
5%
10%
15%
With MIPAR at 8.6%, our target range for the overall portfolio PAR
is 13.6-18.6%. Our objectives will include the “hunt” for some
higher return candidates.
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20%
Dashboard Diagnostics
2. Quality ...
Quality
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
As is the case with the typical Better Investing-based investment
club, the overall average quality is relatively high (77.7) and the
club holds many blue chip companies in its portfolio. The
financial strength and EPS Stability ratings are also quite high.
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90
Dashboard Diagnostics
3. Forecasted Sales Growth ...
Sales Growth
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
We pay attention to overall forecasted sales growth for purposes of
size diversification. One of the most powerful portfolio design
and management parameters is to have enough growth ...
aiming for 10-12% as a portfolio average.
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15%
Dashboard Diagnostics
Forecasted Sales Growth (Size Diversification) ...
25%
25%
Small (>12%)
Medium
Large (<7%)
50%
The general target for size diversification is 25% Large, 50%
Medium and 25% Small.
Hmmm. We can’t get much closer.
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Dashboard Diagnostics
14%
Financials
Energy
Healthcare
Staples
Communications
Technology
Discretionary
Industrials
Cash
1% 8%
0%
31%
21%
In
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C
om
m
D
is
H
un Tec
cr
M
ea Fin
h
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S
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at
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ne lth anc
er str tili ion tap ati
c
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o
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i
i
ia
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ls als ies ary les ns gy gy are als
Opportunity Map & Sector Diversification ...
17%
0%
5%
10%
0% 8%
15%
Source: www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboard/1835
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Dashboard Diagnostics
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Medco Health (MHS)
Sales Growth Forecast = 8.0%
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Dashboard Diagnostics
Medco Health (MHS)
Net Margin Forecast = 2.1% (Value Line is using 2.5%)
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Dashboard Diagnostics
Medco Health (MHS)
Projected Average P/E = 20x (based on VL, M*, S&P, SSG ...)
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Dashboard Diagnostics
Medco Health (MHS)
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Medco Health (MHS)
?
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Sell Medco (MHS) and Accumulate 14.87 shares of Strayer (STRA) to
bring the holding up to 50 shares and approx 7% of total assets.
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Dashboard Diagnostics
Criteria: PAR = 13.6-19%, Sales Growth > 10%, Quality >70
CASPI > 90 (CAPS All-Stars % Expected to Outperform)
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Dashboard Diagnostics
Jinpan Intl* (JST)
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Techne (TECH)
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Dashboard Diagnostics
Buy 150 shares of Jinpan Intl* (JST) ... Raising the portfolio PAR to 11%
and maintaining quality and overall sales growth.
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Dashboard Diagnostics
Think Results. Impact. Before and After. Bigger Picture.
Before.
After.
The sale of MHS and the addition of JST moves the overall portfolio PAR
and average sales growth forecast in the right direction.
Think cadence and steady discipline.
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Dashboard Diagnostics
Morningstar Wide Moat Leaders (WMW)
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Dashboard Diagnostics
Bivio dozen (1/20/2010)
www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboard/12218
Published monthly, the bivio dozen is a listing of the top 1% of all stocks
covered by MANIFEST – based on a combination of PAR and Quality.
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