Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications DETEC Federal Office for the Environment FOEN Air Pollution Control and Chemicals Division CCE Call for Data 2012-14, Swiss activities - Exposure-response relationships - Critical Loads for Nitrogen - Dynamic Modelling Beat Achermann (Federal Office for the Environment) Daniel Kurz (EKG Geo-Science) prepared in cooperation with Lukas Kohli (Hintermann & Weber AG) Tobias Roth (Hintermann & Weber AG) Beat Rihm (Meteotest) CCE Workshop, ICP M&M Task Force Meeting, 7-10 April 2014, Rome Sites considered for exposure-response relationships and dynamic modelling Biodiversity Monitoring (BDM) Species Diversity in Habitats About 1500 plots of 10 m2 (E2.3) and (F2.2) selected from BDM sites Sites from Intercantonal Forest Survey Network (Institute for Applied Plant Biology IAP) CCE Call for Data 2012-14, Contribution of the Swiss National Focal Centre Beat Achermann 2 Mean nutrient indicator values of plants Basis: Nutrient indicator value of each plant species (Landolt et al. 2010) 1 2 3 4 5 very nutrient-poor } oligotrophic species nutrient-poor moderate nutrient-poor to moderate nutrient-rich nutrient-rich very nutrient-rich to over-rich } eutrophic species Examples: 1 Vaccinium oxycoccos (swamp cranberry) 2 Arnica montana (Arnica) 3 Lilium martagon (Turk‘s cap lily, Martagon) 4 Rubus fruticosus (Blackberry) 5 Urtica dioica (Stinging nettle) CCE Call for Data 2012-14, Contribution of the Swiss National Focal Centre Beat Achermann 3 Modelled nitrogen deposition 2010 Considered N compounds: - wet deposition of NO3-, NH4+ - dry deposition of gaseous NH3, NO2, HNO3 - dry deposition of particulate NO3- and NH4+ (secondary aerosols) CCE Call for Data 2012-14, Contribution of the Swiss National Focal Centre Beat Achermann 4 Applied method for statistical analysis Number of plots: 133 for mountain hay meadows (EUNIS E2.3) 37 for (sub)alpine scrub habitats (EUNIS F2.2) GAM (Generalized Additive Model): Response variable: species richness: - all species - oligotrophic species (N indicator values 1 and 2, according to Landolt et al. 2010) Explanatory variables: - N deposition (kg N ha-1 yr-1) Confounding variables considered in the model: - Altitude (m a.s.l.) - Exposition (north, south, west, east: 0-360o) - Slope inclination (degrees) - Precipitation (mm, annual average) - Indicator value R for soil reaction (mean indicator value of recorded plants, according to Landolt et al. 2010) - Indicator value F for soil moisture (mean indicator value of recorded plants, according to Landolt et al. 2010) CCE Call for Data 2012-14, Contribution of the Swiss National Focal Centre Beat Achermann 5 Exposure-response relationships for mountain hay meadows (E2.3) all species oligotrophic species Predicted species richness as a function of N deposition after adjusting for effects of confounding variables CCE Call for Data 2012-14, Contribution of the Swiss National Focal Centre Beat Achermann 6 Exposure-response relationships for (sub)alpine scrub habitats (F2.2) all species oligotrophic species Predicted species richness as a function of N deposition after adjusting for effects of confounding variables. Similar exposure-response relationships for all species and for oligotrophic species, since on average 79 = 13% of all species belong to oligotrophic species. CCE Call for Data 2012-14, Contribution of the Swiss National Focal Centre Beat Achermann 7 Exposure-response relationships in scenario analysis on „no net loss of biodiversity“ (1) • Observation-based quantitative exposure-response relationships for mountain hay meadows (E2.3) and sub(alpine) scrub habitats (F2.2) available for use in scenario analysis on „loss of biodiversity“. Applicability: in montane and (sub)alpine areas • In areas < 800 m a.s.l.: use grassland exposure-response function according to Stevens et al. 2010 (Env. Poll.) • Differentiation between total species richness and species richness of oligotrophic species possible. The latter deserve special protection. Recommendation: Use new exposure-response relationships, especially also those covering oligotrophic species, in the assessments for the Guidance document on health and environmental improvements using new knowledge, methods and data (ECE/EB.AIR/2013/8) CCE Call for Data 2012-14, Contribution of the Swiss National Focal Centre Beat Achermann 8 Exposure-response relationships in scenario analysis on „no net loss of biodiversity (2) Caution when applying observation-based exposureresponse relationships in scenario analysis • Not sure whether species richness will recover along the quantitative exposure-response curve in case of N deposition reduction: Caution when using results from spatial assessments for assessing developments on the time-scale. • Quantitative exposure-response curve probably not valid beyond the N deposition range with observed effects. Application in the N deposition range < 5 kg N ha-1yr-1, mainly in the case of a very steep curve like the one for oligotrophic species in mountain hay meadows, might lead to very unrealistic „no net loss of biodiversity“ results if a very low background deposition < 1 kg N ha-1yr-1 is taken as reference. CCE Call for Data 2012-14, Contribution of the Swiss National Focal Centre Beat Achermann 9 Observation-based exposure response relationships and Critical Loads for Nitrogen for mountain hay meadows (E2.3) Current empirical Critical Load for Nitrogen for mountain hay meadows (expert workshop Noordwijkerhout 2010) 10 – 20 kg N ha-1yr-1 (reliability: expert judgement) Proposed adjusted empirical Critical Load for Nitrogen: Indication of exceedance 10 – 15 kg N ha-1yr-1 5 – 10 kg N ha-1yr-1 decrease total species richness decrease species richness of oligotrophic species CCE Call for Data 2012-14, Contribution of the Swiss National Focal Centre Beat Achermann 10 Observation-based exposure response relationships and Critical Loads for Nitrogen for (sub)alpine scrub habitats (F2.2) Current empirical Critical Load for Nitrogen for (sub)alpine scrub habitats (expert workshop Noordwijkerhout 2010) 5 – 15 kg N ha-1yr-1 (reliability: quite reliable) Proposed adjusted empirical Critical Load for Nitrogen: Indication of exceedance 5 – 10 kg N ha-1yr-1 decrease total species richness and species richness oligotrophic species CCE Call for Data 2012-14, Contribution of the Swiss National Focal Centre Beat Achermann 11 Critical Loads for Nitrogen vs Critical Levels for Ammonia – Protection considerations Species-rich meadows and pastures: Raised bogs: Fens: Forests: CLNemp: 8-20 kg N ha-1yr-1 CLNemp: 7 kg N ha-1yr-1 CLNemp: 10-15 kg N ha-1yr-1 CLN: SMB CCE Call for Data 2012-14, Contribution of the Swiss National Focal Centre Beat Achermann CLeNH3: 2 µg NH3 m-3 CLeNH3: 1 µg NH3 m-3 CLeNH3: 2 µg NH3 m-3 CLeNH3: 2 µg NH3 m-3 12 Areas of selected ecosystems with exceedances of CLN and CLeNH3 in 2010 Ecosystem Critical Load (CLN) % area with exceedances Critical Level (CleNH3) % area with exceedances Raised bogs 96 % 54 % Fens 80 % 13 % Species-rich meadows and pastures 31 % 2% Forests 94 % 19 % Considering Levels and Loads the priority target should be non-exceedances of Critical Loads for Nitrogen CCE Call for Data 2012-14, Contribution of the Swiss National Focal Centre Beat Achermann 13