Open-Economy Macroeconomics Basic Concepts Outline: Closed versus open economy Key macroeconomic variables in an open economy Understanding and interpretation of data Closed versus open Closed economy is an economy that does not interact with other economies in the world Open economy is an economy that interacts freely with other economies in the world International flows of goods Exports: goods and services that are produced domestically and sold abroad Imports: goods and services that are produced abroad and sold domestically Net exports: the value of a nation’s exports minus the value of its imports International flows of goods Trade balance: also called as net exports Trade surplus: an excess of exports over imports, i.e. net exports are positive Trade deficit: an excess of imports over exports, i.e. net exports are negative Balanced trade: Exports and imports are equal, i.e. net exports are zero Factors affecting international trade in goods and services Tastes of consumers for domestic and foreign goods Prices of goods at home and abroad Exchange rate of domestic currency Income of consumers at home and abroad Cost of transportation Policies of government towards trade Increasing openness of Canadian economy: Reasons Improvements in transportation Advances in telecommunications Technological progress Free Trade Agreement in 1989 NAFTA in 1993 International flow of capital Net foreign investment: the purchase of foreign assets by domestic residents minus the purchase of domestic assets by foreigners Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): is investment that gives foreign investor management control of the domestic firm in which the investment is made Foreign Portfolio Investment: are foreign holdings of government and private sector debt (bonds and shares) and involves no legal control. Variables influencing net foreign investment Real interest rates paid on foreign assets Real interest rates paid on domestic assets Perceived risk of holding assets abroad Government policies that affect foreign ownership of domestic assets Net Exports (NX)= Net Foreign Investment (NFI) Exports > Imports Canadian resident Foreign resident + NX Purchases foreign stock + NFI Purchases Canadian stock - NFI Good is exported Canada + NX USA NX=NFI Pays in USD Invest in US bonds Canada USA Imports US goods + NFI + NX=+ NFI No change in NX and NFI Conclusion: Value of asset= value of goods and services sold NFI=NX International flow of goods= international flow of capital Saving, Investment, and international flows Saving= domestic investment+ net foreign investment Savings in Canadian economy Investment in the Canadian economy Canadian NFI Year Q1 20 03 20 01 19 99 19 97 19 95 19 93 19 91 19 89 19 87 19 85 19 83 19 81 19 79 19 77 19 75 19 73 19 71 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Exports, Imports Exports and Imports: Canada 600000 500000 Exports 400000 Imports 300000 200000 100000 0 Relation between saving, investment, and NFI: Canada’s experience • Refer transparencies for slides or pp. 382 of the text book. Prices for international transactions: Exchange Rates Nominal exchange rate: Rate at which a person can trade the currency of one country for the currency of another Appreciation: An increase in the value of a currency as measured by the amount of foreign currency it can buy Depreciation: A decrease in the value of a currency as measured by the amount of foreign currency it can buy Real Exchange rate Exchange rate determination: PPP PPP is a theory of exchange rate whereby a unit of any given currency should be able to buy the same quantity of goods in all countries, i.e., a unit of all currencies must have the same real value in every country. Implications: Nominal exchange rate between the currencies of the two countries depends on the price levels in those countries. Nominal exchange rates change when the price levels change. Increase in the supply of money lowers value of money and depreciates the nominal exchange rate of the currency as well. PPP Theory: Limitations Many goods are not easily traded between countries limiting the arbitrage that can be gained from difference in prices. Tradable goods are not perfect substitutes Conclusion: Changes in the real exchange rate are often small and temporary. Large changes in nominal exchange rates reflect changes in price levels at home and abroad. Interest rate determination Assumptions: Small open economy Perfect capital mobility Interest parity is a theory of interest rate determination whereby the real interest rate on comparable financial assets should be the same in all economies with full access to world financial markets. Limitations: Possibility of default Financial assets are imperfect substitutes Differences in default risk and in tax treatments Consider a small country that exports steel. Suppose that a pro-trade government decides to subsidize steel by paying a certain amount for each ton of steel sold abroad. What are the effects of the export subsidy on : • • • • • • • • Domestic price of steel Quantity of steel produced Quantity of steel consumed Quantity of steel exported Consumer surplus Producer surplus Government revenue Total surplus How would the following transactions affect Canada's imports, exports, net exports, and net foreign investment? • A Canadian spends his summer in Europe • Students in Paris come to watch whales in Victoria, BC • A Canadian cellular phone co establishes an office in the USA • TD mutual fund sells its Volkswagen stock to a French investor • Your uncle buys a new Volvo • A Canadian citizen shops at a store in NY to avoid Canadian sales tax • Harrod’s of London sells stock to the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan • Macey’s in NY is selling Roots T-shirts