The European Union’s CARDS programme
for the Balkan region – Contract No. 52276
Regional Electricity Balkan
Infrastructure Study (REBIS)
&
Generation Investment Study (GIS)
Progress Reports, 22 October 2003
This project is funded by
the European Union
This project is realised by the PwC
Consortium
REBIS – Amended ToRs
Since the Athens process meeting in Rome, the TORs of the
REBIS work have been amended.
The overriding objectives of the work are the:
1. Production of a report on the progress achieved in the creation
of national and regional market rules enabling a functional
regional market and;
2. Identification of what work, if any, remains to be completed.
The GIS study has been incorporated into the overall project scope.
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PwC Consortium
GIS – current status
• Work to be undertaken by PwC, CMcK, Atkins, MWH, SEEC
and Adica consulting.
• The interactions between regional market development (under
REBIS) and priority investments (under GIS) captured through
the involvement of the Consortium in the two separate strands of
the project.
• Administrative delays in finalising of contract
• Work is being part-funded by the original REBIS Consortium
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PwC Consortium
REBIS – Activities to date
•
First engineering data gathering visits undertaken in July 2003
and responses to the detailed technical questionnaire are being
received.
•
11 questionnaires distributed, a few still outstanding.
•
Major objective:
– to understand the current infrastructure, limitations and
management
– to formulate approach to improvement to match REM requirements
– to modify ideal market requirements to something manageable
within current and future technical constraints.
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PwC Consortium
REBIS – Next steps
•
Commercial and legal meetings scheduled mid-November in
the region.
– Invitations currently being sent out to ministries, regulators, TSOs
and utilities.
– Objectives to understand current position and expected
developments and to explain commercial and legal questionnaires.
•
Draft commercial and legal questionnaires developed.
– To be finalised and issued to recipients in November
– Objective to provide information to underpin understanding of
current and planned developments within beneficiary countries and
region
•
We aim to derive draft proposals during Q1 2004 for refinement
during the remainder of the year.
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PwC Consortium
GIS - Aims
•
Two main strands of the GIS work:
1. demand forecast;
2. generation and infrastructure requirements assessment.
•
Focus on CARDS countries
•
Also covers Romania and Bulgaria
•
Consultation with Donors and recipient countries through
Athens process forum.
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PwC Consortium
GIS - Deliverables
•
Demand deliverable: comprehensive demand forecast, which
takes into account impacts of reform, and most recent
projections and uncertainty associated with economic growth in
the region.
•
Reliant on factors such as:
1. Historic demand data
2. Economic data for beneficiary countries;
3. Price elasticity of electricity demand
4. Impact of energy efficiency measures.
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PwC Consortium
GIS - Methodology
•
Generation and infrastructure requirements assessment to be
undertaken using WASP and GTMax software packages, which
have been extensively used in the region.
•
Deliverables: alternative development options based on:
1. Least cost plans for national utilities without the benefit of regional
co-operation;
2. Unconstrained least cost development plan for all regional power
systems participating in the SEE REM;
3. Detailed market simulation for 2010 and 2015 to consider
operating conditions in the SEE REM based on the candidate
projects identified in the regionally integrated scenario.
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PwC Consortium
GIS - considerations
•
Locational marginal pricing:
– Assess the potential for “approximately similar LMPs”
– Important to define LMP clearly
– Consider added value of later investments to achieve similar LMPs
when compared to uniform prices.
•
Use of previous analysis:
– Maximise use of previous work undertaken in the region
– Meet with Donors to ascertain data and analysis availability
– Liaise with other consultants on concurrent studies
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PwC Consortium
GIS – Anticipated Consultation
• Two general workshops for stakeholders, both linked to Athens
process meetings.
• At the first, in approximately 6 months, we anticipate discussing
the demand forecast and the alternative power supply options.
• At the second, in approximately 11 months, we expect to
discuss the draft final report including the final results of the
demand forecast and the results of the generation expansion
analysis.
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PwC Consortium