Risk in Investment Appraisal

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REITINFO.COM
An introduction to REITs
(Real Estate Investment Trusts);
Examination of their advantages / disadvantages;
Look at their growth across Asia & globally; and
Tony Milton MRICS & APREA (CREIF) & SeekingAlpha
tony@REITinfo.com
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General Information
• Object: To make REIT investment as attractive as private, direct
ownership, most jurisdictions allow RIETs to be structured as tax
free vehicles to avoid double taxation: firstly on Corporation Tax at
the REIT level; and secondly on the dividends at an individual level.
• Originally, REITs were set up as passive vehicles: externally advised;
no development; and generally restrictive in permissible activities.
As time passed, many of these features were seen to be less
beneficial to investors than originally thought, and many were
subsequently relaxed.
• Governments have to encourage developers to transform into and /
or sell to REITs by acknowledging that they would be reluctant to do
so, if faced with huge capital gains tax bills.
• Developers “have their hands-tied” given the restrictions on
development and leverage, so it is common for Asian REITs to be
‘sponsored’ eg CapitaLand; Mapletree; Lippo; Lotte; Banyan Tree.
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Number of USA REITs
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Market Capitalisation of USA REITs
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Not All REITs are the Same
Before 2000 REITs had a very limited presence (in around 9
countries), but since then over 25 others (many in AsiaPac) have
adopted REIT or REIT like structures. Most REIT structures are
similar, but differences include:
1. Tax eg Hong Kong which is tax-free anyway (which has acted as a
disincentive to developers in REIT conversion).
2. Debt levels eg Australia & Japan don’t have any.
3. Restrict the level of development activities (typically to 10% of asset
value).
4. Accounting treatment ie as fixed assets with depreciation, or to IFRS
without depreciation but regular revaluation (and consequently
higher distributable incomes).
5. Externally, independently managed.
6. Concerning payment of management fees in units ie increasing
distributable income.
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REITs are sometimes marketed as bond-like vehicles
• Because of their stable cash position and generally more
conservative investment policies.
• However, this is a feature of the underlying business and not the
legal relations between the investors and the business entity (the
REIT).
• Investors are investors in the equity tranche of a living business
entity, and thus, they are exposed to up and downside risk like any
other stock owners.
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The 3 crucial misconceptions about REITs
1. Sometimes marketed as bond-like vehicles (see above).
2. REITs are sometimes thought of as being highly correlated to the
equity markets, but are infact a non-correlating asset class that do
not move in step with stock markets, which is important for
portfolio construction. In smaller markets there maybe some
correlation eg between Hong Kong & Singapore, but this is less so
for Japan and only slightly so in Australia. The correlation can be
explained by the impact major developers can have on smaller
countries broader economies ie real estate news can drive
movements in the wider market. Nonetheless, REITs are a
component of the equity market, so tend to correlate with the
broader equity market, not with bonds.
3. Asian real estate markets are sometimes thought of as being highly
correlated to one another. With the exception of Hong Kong and
Singapore, research has shown only “moderate” correlation,
because local supply & demand factors are much more important.
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Advantage No.1: Liquidity
• A defining characteristic - public equity markets provide a high level
of liquidity, distinguishing REITs from the relative illiquidity of the
properties they own. This distinction is fundamental, as it enables
investors to efficiently access and manage their capital; obtain daily
market-cleared prices; and adjust their investment allocations to
take advantage of attractive opportunities. Consequently, REITs
provide a liquid vehicle for investing in real estate (an inherently
illiquid asset class).
• Note – this is a major disadvantage of private / non-traded REITs in
the US and elsewhere.
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Advantage No.2: Transparency
Another defining attribute for REITs is transparency.
REITs are subject to the discipline and regulations of public markets
(or corporate governance), including audited financial statements &
oversight by a board of directors (or trustees).
Direct real estate investments generally do not offer the same
transparency or governance standards, especially in global markets.
But, some say that it’s a very short stretch indeed to imagine that a
corporate administrator might be unethical, incompetent, or charge
outrageous fees.
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Advantage No.3: Management
• A third defining characteristic for REITs is value creation by
management.
• REIT management teams pursue acquisitions, dispositions and
development activities, which have the potential to add value for
shareholders beyond the companies' real estate holdings.
• These management teams can add value beyond that of their
property assets by enhancing operating efficiencies.
• Managements can also drive value creation through effective
capital allocation as they access capital through public markets or
make accretive acquisitions.
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Advantage No.4: Diversification
• A fourth defining attribute for REITs is diversification by sector,
property type, and geography. A portfolio of REITs may represent
thousands of properties around the world, making it possible to
diversify assets across geographic regions and property sectors. This
diversification can help reduce risk at the property level, while
providing access to a wide range of property markets with different
return profiles & cycles.
• If recent markets have taught us one thing, it's that diversification
really matters. By having a diversified asset base, investors can
mitigate potential risks. Furthermore, by investing in an actively
managed portfolio of real estate securities, investors may benefit
from the insights of professional asset managers, who can adjust a
portfolio's allocation based on their view of the risks and
opportunities offered by various securities and market segments.
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Advantage No.4: Diversification – cont’d
• REITs now include agricultural land & plantations, prisons, solar
power & data-storage facilities, student & social / manufactured
housing (trailer parks), kindergartens, and even casinos! Some
people are predicting REIT status applied to companies who
develop landfills, roads, railroads, mines, and vineyards because the
rule could be applied to any company which has immovable objects
used in generating income. If this trend is allowed to continue,
corporations like MacDonalds and Wendy’s could also register as
REITs to avoid paying corporate tax. (See “Sector Info” page on
REITinfo).
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USA REITs by Sector
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Advantage No.5: Strong Total Returns
• A fifth defining attribute for REITs is the strong historical total
returns compared with non-REITs. REITs have consistently produced
strong returns relative to other equities and fixed-income
securities, benefiting from a business model focused on generating
consistent and growing cash-flows. As an investment in tangible
assets, REITs also benefit from barriers to competition and property
values that tend to rise with inflation.
• Real estate provides insurance against broader stock market
movements, including those in the utilities, oil & gas, and consumer
staples sectors. Historically (and outside of 2009-2010), real estate
has continued to perform and pay out income to investors, even
when there are macroeconomic shocks to the market that impact
these other sectors.
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Advantage No.5: Strong Total Returns – cont’d
• REITs have outperformed stocks and bonds in both the US and global
markets during the modern REIT era. Going back even further, we see
that US REITs have maintained their overall performance advantage
over multiple decades. The FTSE NAREIT US Real Estate index of REITs
outperformed the Standard & Poor's 500 index of stocks by an average
of more than 6% points a year in 2009 through 2011. But REIT returns
fell slightly more than stock returns in the financial crisis of 2008.
• In the last 10 years, REITs have done a better job protecting wealth
than commodities; REITs have delivered 3 times the returns that
commodities have without adding extra volatility. REITs do particularly
well when they grow dividends faster than the rate of inflation. This
has been the case in 19 of the 25 years from 1987-2012, when
dividends rose approx 5.7% annually. This goes against conventional
wisdom, which says that REITs do poorly when rates rise, so it depends
upon how fast a REIT can raise rents, which in turn drive its earnings
and dividends. Similarly, again conversely, rising interest rates and / or
inflation have helped REIT returns in the past.
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Advantage No.6: Dividends
• The sixth REIT attribute - dividends - is also arguably the most
important because REITs generally have more stable / less volatile
dividend streams than other sectors.
• Listed REITs are required to pay out at least 90% of taxable income
as dividends, and the dividend yield on a REIT is thus a function of
the rental income which can be achieved from the underlying
properties. If the property manager is able to raise rents, the
dividend yield could rise from present levels as more rental income
is achieved. On the flipside, weak demand could see rental yields
decline, hurting dividend yields of REITs.
• Some REITs have a history of consistently raising their dividends,
resulting from cash-flow growth that can come organically from
rising rents and occupancies, or externally from development and
acquisitions.
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Advantage No.6: Dividends – cont’d
• Regular Dividends-REITs provide a consistent form of income for the
investors in the form of dividends as most of the investments by
REITs are based on long term lease agreements which increases the
reliability. REIT shave been found to be paying more dividends than
any of the stocks out there in the market in many countries.
• Much of REITs' returns come from dividends. REITs recently offered
an average yield of about 3.5%. That compares quite favorably to
the 2% yield for the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield of
1.6%.
• In a market starved for yield, the current average US REIT yields
about 3.8% compared to 2% for the S&P 500 which is a strong
incentive for investment.
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Advantage No.6: Dividends – cont’d
• Historically, US REITs have offered higher dividend yields than other
equities with similar risk profiles. Over the past decade, the average
dividend yield for US REITs has trended downward from the 8%
seen in the late 1990s to below 4% today (as many of these
companies have reduced payouts to the minimum level required by
law).
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Advantage No.6: Dividends – cont’d
• As a result, a greater proportion of total returns have come from
price appreciation in recent years. That said, US REIT dividend yields
remain higher than the yields of most other equity and fixedincome asset classes.
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Advantage No.7: No Corporate Income Tax
• REITs do not have to pay Corporate Income Tax.
• Instead they are required to pay out 90% of their taxable incomes
as dividends.
• As a result, REITs can provide higher returns than other
corporations because they have more cash available for
distribution.
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Advantage No.8: Secure Investment
• Since REITs manage tangible assets (like real estate & land), the
investment is more secure.
• Commercial real estate is generally not oversupplied so when
demand picks up, albeit slowly, real estate values should rise.
• Hence, REITs can be considered as extremely stable, because the
value of underlying properties will keep on appreciating with time,
even though the rate of growth might be slow.
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Advantage No.9: Hedge Against Inflation
• REITs stand up against inflation as a hedge against it, since property
values will keep on appreciating with the passage of time.
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Advantage No.10: Increases Interest & Raises Capital
• Provides individuals with the ability to invest in commercial real
estate.
• Even small amounts of money can be invested in real estate via
REIT.
• Buying a real estate property directly would mean investing a huge
sum into a single project whereby REIT enables group buying which
reduces the risks involved.
• Can help countries like Vietnam, India, the Philippines and China
attract international finance to the real estate sector, which are
otherwise closed or almost uninvestable to all but huge developers.
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Disadvantages of REITs
REITs have become “grossly” overvalued: Choosing a good REIT
is similar to looking for the nicest horse in a glue factory.
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Disadvantages of REITs – Cont’d
• The strong recent performance has resulted in more expensive
valuations for the sector, which is being driven by an insatiable
thirst for yield in the present low-interest rate environment.
• REITs outperformed stocks easily in the years before the crisis and
in the four years since, as the FTSE NAREIT index has soared by over
300%, more than doubling the S&P 500’s gains of 141%.
• Japanese investors (in particular) have been piling into US REITs to
take advantage of the extreme yield differentials as that country is
using low rates to attempt to stimulate the economy. In addition to
the dividends, however, the Japanese funds are also paying out
appreciation, including unrealized gains. If the growth in REIT share
prices begins to moderate, these funds will have to start selling
shares to maintain their payouts and this could pressure prices as
they own billions of US REIT securities.
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Disadvantages of REITs – Cont’d
• FFO measures a REIT's cash flow and REITs are currently traded at
about 21.6 times their adjusted funds from operations, or FFO -well above the 14.3 percent average of the last 13 years (and
compared against P/Es of about 20 for P&G and Unilever). Note –
Simon Property Group’s P/E is about 40, and American Tower’s 45.
• Institutions own more than 95% of the shares (including about 10%
by the Japanese). When REITs eventually fall out of favor, the exit
door will be very crowded.
• For the past 5+ years, REITs enjoyed extremely low borrowing costs.
But since rates can't go LOWER than zero, there's limited upside for
REITs. When (not if!) interest rates rise, REITs will have a hard time
refinancing.
• Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) could soon turn from income
investor darling to toxic portfolio sludge.
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Disadvantages of REITs – Cont’d
Higher interest rates = higher cost of debt
Since REITs are usually 30-40% geared the increased borrowing
costs will eat into earnings, cause lower distributions to
shareholders and therefore lower market price (and some REITs
may have to borrow money to pay distributions!).
Historically speaking, the 10-year Treasury rate would have to rise
nearly 2% points to reach the 4.64% average since 1871. For
example, if you have a REIT share / unit that is $1 and pays $0.05
cents distribution it is a 5% yield. But if rates go to say 3-5% expect
investors to demand a yield on REITs of say 6-10%, therefore that
same REITs that still pays $0.05 will have to fall to $0.50-$0.80 to be
attractive enough and compensate for the risk taken.
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The Global Economy Facing 4 Potential 0utcomes
1. A return to healthy growth (in which case REIT incomes should
rise);
2. A low-growth, low-inflation period in the doldrums (in which case
the income appeal of REITs should help);
3. A return of rapid inflation (as a real asset, property should offer
some protection and REITs offer property and leverage);
4. A deflationary slump.
Only in the last case would REITs property suffer. So, the greatest
impacts will be due to:
• market sentiment;
• the value of the underlying real estate;
• management’s ability to raise leasing rates and control costs.
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A look at REITs Growth Across Asia and Globally Over
the Last Decade
The recent introduction of real estate investment trusts (REITs) in Ireland and
South Africa has taken the number of countries offering the vehicles to 34
with an approx market capital capitalisation of USD$1.1trn.
The Asian REIT market is poised for significant growth, despite the Market Cap
of the sector having increased from about USD$2bn in 2001 to USD$50bn
after 5 years, and USD$127bn now, between around 145 Asian-based REITs,
which still only amounts to about 4% of investment grade stock and the lowest
level of securitised real estate in the world. Hence, if this were to increase to
25% that would equate to a sectoral value well in excess of USD$500bn.
Currently Japan & Singapore account for about 40% & 30% of the market:
Japan has approx 35 REITs with a total Market Cap of USD$60bn; and
Singapore 16 REITs with a market capitalization of USD$19.3bn (HK has about
7 valued at USD$8.8bn.
The gross asset value of real estate in Africa is only €113bn or 1% of the
world’s total value, despite the fact that the continent controls 15% of world
population.
REITinfo.comreal estate in the US.
REITs own around 15-20% of commercial
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A look at REITs Growth Across Asia and Globally Over
the Last Decade
REITs are well placed to capitalize on changing demographics as the urban
landscape develops and changes to meet the needs of growing populations,
changing demographics, and expanding industry hubs.
Residential - the rise in young and medium-to-high income populations has
led to more demand in high-end apartments with more amenities, which
command higher rents.
Offices - businesses in urban areas are continually looking for the best office
properties to encourage work production as well as retain and attract the
best talent. Many of the biggest office towers and A-class commercial
properties are owned by REITs.
Retail & Leisure - urbanization creates the need for attractive shops and
restaurants to serve these populations, as well as hotels for visitors from
other cities. REITs own some of the best retail and hospitality space, with
leading name brand anchor tenants.
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Australia
• Australia introduced REIT legislation in 1971 via “Listed Property
Trusts” / LPT (renamed Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts or
A-REITs in 2008), which are allowed to hold property in or outside
of Australia. Many carry out the management & marketing other
related services (including
some investment and / or
development), directly as “Stapled REITs.” In the last 30yrs about
70% of Australian property has been securitised. In 1988 the
government introduced the concept of “Responsible Entities” (RE)
via the Managed Investments Act whereby a Trustee holds the
assets “in trust” for investors / unit-holders, with a separate
manager responsible for the operational performance.
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Malaysia
• REIT legislation was initially introduced in 1986 with amendments
to the Companies Act 1965 and the Securities Industry Act 1983
permitting listed registered property trusts, but it was not until the
Securities Commission Guidelines on Real Estate Investment Trusts,
and Guidelines on Islamic Real Estate Investment Trusts (Islamic
REITs), in 2005 that the market developed. Islamic REITs are a first
of their type and 'shariah-compliant' whereby the REITs cannot
invest in casinos, etc. All Malaysian REITs must pay out at least 90%
of their net profit to unit-holders to be exempt from taxation; invest
at least 50% of assets in real estate (but no more than 25% in cash
or other funds); are exempt from Stamp Duty; must have a trustee,
and managers who are 'approved' companies; cannot sell more
than 70% to foreigners, and the 'sponsor' cannot hold more than
70%; and have at least RM100m / $30m in assets. Foreigners must
pay 20% with-holding tax, landlords who sell to listed REITS are
exempt from Capital Gains Tax.
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Singapore
• S-REIT were introduced in 2002 as Collective Investment Schemes
or Business Trusts which must pay out net profit as dividends; hold
at least 75% of assets in income-producing real estate (with no
more than 10% of revenue coming from non-rental income); have
at least 500 public shareholders that own a combined 25%; have at
least S$1m in assets; be managed by an approved Trustee, and
external Singapore based corporate manager. S-REITs are exempt
from Stamp Duty, and foreign non-resident investors pay only 10%
withholding tax on dividends.
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• Net asset (or book) value represents the value of the REIT’s
underlying properties minus liabilities. A PB Ratio premium means
that that are expectations of strong capital appreciation of the
REIT’s underlying properties since the REITs are selling for more
than what their underlying properties are worth, and is also a
function of the premium investors are willing to pay for wellmanaged REITs which may have the ability to perform asset
enhancements on existing properties.
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S-REITs have delivered a strong 28% return including dividends (as
at end-April 2013), and valuations have risen in tandem.
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Hong Kong
• REIT legislation was announced in August 2003. Hong Kong is one of
the most transparent but volatile stock exchanges in Asia, and the
REIT regulations say that REITs must pay out at least 90% of their
net profits to shareholders as dividends and own 3+ properties
(which are not owner-occupied); hold at least 75% of their assets in
real estate, government securities or cash; derive at least 75% of
their income from rent, mortgages or property sales; not use more
than 45% leverage (loan-to-value); engage in no more than 10%
development work; and employ external property managers. They
can invest overseas (obviously with an eye on the 'mainland'), and
JV with others (so long as they have a controlling interest).
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Taiwan
T-REITs became legal in Taiwan wef July 2003 via the Real Estate
Securitization Law in 2002. REITs can be public or private and investors
only pay 6%-10% tax on a minimum investment of about NT10,000 /
USD$350 to encourage small investors. Minimum initial capital ranges
from NT$300m / USD$10m to NT$2bn / USD$65m depending on the
scope of their plan, and they're prohibited from buying properties
without that stable rental income. The trustee must be a publicly listed
company, and can manage the properties or hire an outside management
company. They are in effect closed end funds for real estate investment,
because after the IPO they cannot raise funds by selling additional shares.
The REIT must pays out at least 90% net income annually and at least 75%
of the trust's assets must be in real estate assets. REITs can invest up to
20% of their assets in short term commercial paper, bank deposits,
government bonds and such. The trustee may borrow up to 35% of the
net value of the trust's assets. There should be at least 50 unit holders, a
unit holder may now own over 50% of the REIT's units unless they are
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independent professional investors.
France
French REITs were introduced in 2003 as Les Societes d'Investissements
Immobilier Cotees / SIIC and must: pay out 85% of income; are exempt
from taxes (including on the upto 15% of the income that is not
distributed); must pay out 50% of their capital gains within 2 years (but
don’t have to pay tax on the 50% balance); cannot be privately owned or
have any one individual or corporate shareholder (or in co-operation with
one another) owning more than 60% of the stock; must have at least
Euro15m in capital; can (directly or via subsidiaries), engage in investment
/ development if the aim is to acquire building to lease (not tax exempt);
can leverage up their borrowings as they are not subject to any formal
gearing requirements; must have a “free float” of 15%+. Real estate
companies which convert to REITs must pay 16.5% tax on unrealized
capital gains. Foreign investors no longer need to establish and list a
holding investment vehicle in France, but REITs must withhold 25% of
distributions to foreign shareholders (often mitigated by double tax
treaties to @15%).
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Japan
•
J-REITs were introduced (principally) via the Law of Investment Trusts and Investment
Companies (LITIC), which created 2 different legal systems for J-REITs: the Investment
Corporation System; and the Investment Trust System. Although they may exist as either
corporate or trust entities, the overwhelming majority operate under the former as
SPIVs (Special Purpose Investment Vehicles). They must: pay out at least 90% of taxable
income as dividends; hold at least 75% of assets in real estate or related instruments;
hold at least 70% in direct real estate; have at least 50 shareholders; not allow the 3
largest shareholders to own over 50% nor the 10 largest shareholders to own over 75%;
have at least ¥5bn/$65m in capital & ¥1bn/$12.5m equity; withhold 20% from
distributions as tax; not develop properties nor have subsidiaries own over 50% of
another company. A parent (sponsor) company and asset manager, establish an
investment corporation can act as a fund (securitization) vehicle for the J-REIT. The
Asset Management Companies perform the management & marketing, administration,
although there is often a close link with the sponsor. J-REITs can own any type of
commercial property; sell bonds to raise finance; and (since 2008) are able to invest
outside Japan. There is no statutory gearing limit applicable to J-REITs. However, in
practice a J-REITs Articles of Association usually contain a gearing limit of 55%-60%.
Japanese law also allows for SPIVs to be established that deal in securitization.
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UK
The UK introduced REIT legislation in 2007 which requires that REITs must:
distribute at least 90% of rental income (“Property Income Distributions”) to
shareholders (to avoid Corporate Income Tax); ensure that they have 125% rental
income cover to debt interest; companies changing to this business structure
must pay a one-time tax to the government of 2% of their gross assets; ensure
that 75%+ of assets are property investments; ensure that if / when they engage
in property development, it is for long-term (3 years+) investment purposes. Tax
exempt profits are required to be distributed are not necessarily a company’s
accounting profits. HMRC requires various adjustments to be made including tax
deductible allowances on qualifying capital spend. Dividends are paid as
Property Income Distributions or PIDs, taxable as property letting income (for
shareholders who are not tax exempt) but will be treated separately from any
other property letting business which they may carry on. PID dividend payments
must be paid after the deduction of Withholding Tax at the basic 20% rate (2012)
which the REIT must pay directly to HMRC on behalf of the shareholder. UK
companies, charities, local authorities, UK pension schemes, PEPs, ISAs and Child
Trust Funds are able to claim exemption from deduction of the withholding tax
and receive their dividends gross. REITinfo.com
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New Zealand
Legislation has always allowed trusts governed by deeds, but it is
the 'Special Partnerships' have long been attractive SPVs for
foreigners, since they too are tax exempt. The introduction of
Portfolio Investment Entities (PIE) in 2007, and Limited Partnerships
(LP) in 2008, have further increased the number of tax
advantageous investment vehicles, though non-residents must pay
30% withholding tax (NRWT) on distributions.
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Thailand
• REIT-like legislation was introduced in 2010 via the Trust for Transactions in
Capital Markets Act (2007), that superceded and expanded the scope of the
Property Fund for Public Offering (PFPO) legislation of 2002, which was
introduced to deal with the aftermath of the Asian Financial Crisis. A bespoke
REIT law is long anticipated (and delayed). Legally, Thai REITs must: distribute
at least 90% of the net profit; de closed-ended funds with a minimum capital
of Baht 500m / about USD$16m; have at least 250 unit holders for an IPO;
have no more than 33.33% of unit holders who are “related persons”; not
allow developers or other sponsors or previous owners (or other such “related
persons”), or institutional investors hold more than 33% of the total units;
invest at least 75% of the net asset value in property; derive at least 75% from
income from rentals; only invest in properties which are at least 80%
complete. Foreigners- No Thai taxes are imposed on foreign individual unit
holders on income or Capital Gains, as income is viewed as commercial
income by the taxman and so not subject to Withholding Tax, when paid to an
overseas beneficiary. There is no specific exemption but foreigners are literally
and in practice “outside” the scope of the Thai tax regime. Locals- Locals face
10-37% Income Tax or can deduct 10% Withholding Tax as a “final levy”, and
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Capital Gains are tax-exempt.
Others
• USA since 1960
• South Africa & Ireland: since 2013
• Note - China & India have assets listed in foreign REIT markets eg
Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan.
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How Much Real Estate Should I Hold In My Portfolio?
(Assuming $100k initial investment using the FTSE
NAREIT Composite US REIT Index)
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Calculation of Fair Value
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Questions & Answers
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For More Info see REITinfo.com
tony@REITinfo.com
Tony Milton MRICS & APREA (CREIF) & SeekingAlpha
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