DGVT meeting – Brdo
New insight into future skill
needs in Europe
Aviana Bulgarelli and Alena Zukersteinova
Cedefop
1-4 March 2008
DGVT meeting – Brdo
Why skills needs analyses
• to fill existing information deficits to inform
actors on future labour market needs for
their decision-making
• to support evidence-based policy-making
in LLL, employment and social policy
1-4 March 2008
DGVT meeting – Brdo
Why a European approach
Education and skills - key driver for European growth,
competitiveness and jobs
 need to know which occupations and skills will be required
 education and training will develop knowledge and skills,
promote innovation, fill potential gaps, support growth and
restructuring
Approaches to anticipate skills exist in several
Member States
BUT: not yet well established at
European level
1-4 March 2008
DGVT meeting – Brdo
Cedefop’s pro-active approach
• Consistent and comprehensive projections
of skill needs across Europe
• Unique at European level
• European „team work“
 launch and coordination of Skillsnet
 towards a European system for early
identification of skill needs
1-4 March 2008
DGVT meeting – Brdo
Cedefop presents the first European
forecast on occupational skill needs …
… to answer the following questions
• In which sectors will employment be
growing or declining?
• Which occupations will be in demand?
• For which qualifications will demand
increase or decrease?
1-4 March 2008
DGVT meeting – Brdo
European skills forecasting
– comparable information Europe-wide
– feasible & cost-effective
First stage: demand side (skill needs - jobs)
Second stage: supply side (available skills –
people) and identification of possible imbalances
Next stages: further improvement of methods and
data bases; additional research; joint European
approach
1-4 March 2008
DGVT meeting – Brdo
Modular approach to skill needs forecasting
Overview of the Framework
Module 1: Macroeconomic and sectoral scenarios
Module 2: Expansion demand by occupation
Module 3: Expansion demand by qualification
Module 4: Replacement demand
1-4 March 2008
DGVT meeting – Brdo
Future trends at a pan-European
level (EU-25+)
•
•
•
•
by sector (up to 41 industries)
by occupation (up to 27 occupations)
by qualification (3 broad levels)
plus replacement demands
EU-25+ = EU-25 + Norway and Switzerland
1-4 March 2008
DGVT meeting – Brdo
Past
and
likely
future
trends
by
sector
(EU-25+)
Millions
60
Distribution and transport
50
Non-marketed
services
Business & other
services
40
Manufacturing
30
20
Construction
10
Primary sector & utilities
0
1996
97
98
99
2000
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Forecast
1-4 March 2008
12
13
14
15
DGVT meeting – Brdo
17.9
All industries
Past and
likely
future
sectoral
change
and
structure
(EU-25+)
13.3
Primary sector
and utilities
-3.1
-2.3
-2.9
Manufacturing
1996-2006
-0.5
2006-2015
1.4
Construction
0.4
Distribution
and transport
5.9
3.5
Business and
other services
11.6
8.9
Non-marketed
services
5.1
3.2
-5
0
5
10
15
20
million jobs
100%
80%
7.8
26.7
5.6
4.2
Prima ry se ctor
a nd utilitie s
23.8
22.4
Ma nufa cturing
Se rvice s
60%
40%
65.5
70.6
73.4
2006
2015
20%
1-4 March 2008
0%
1996
DGVT meeting – Brdo
Legislators, senior
officials and managers
3
2.7
3
Professionals
3.8
Technicians and
associate professionals
Past and
likely
future
occupational
change
(EU-25+)
6
4.7
-1
Clerks
1996-2006
2006-2015
-1.3
Service workers and shop
and market sales workers
4
2.5
Skilled agricultural
and fishery workers
-2
-1.7
Craft and related
trades workers
-2
-1.4
Plant and machine
operators and assemblers
0
0.5
6
Elementary occupations
3.5
18
All occupations
13.3
-5
1-4 March 2008
0
5
million jobs
10
15
20
DGVT meeting – Brdo
100%
Past and
likely
future
occupational
structure
(EU-25+)
80%
34.9
37.8
40.6
High-skilled nonmanual occupations
60%
26.0
25.1
24.1
Low-skilled nonmanual occupations
Skilled manual
occupations
40%
20%
29.9
25.6
22.9
8.6
10.9
11.8
1996
2006
2015
0%
1-4 March 2008
Elementary
occupations
DGVT meeting – Brdo
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Legislators, senior officials and managers
Professionals
Technicians and associate professionals
Replacement
demand
(EU-25+)
Clerks
Service workers, shop/market sales workers
Skilled agricultural and fishery workers
Craft and related trades workers
Replacement
demand
Plant and machine operators and assemblers
Total
requirements
Elementary occupations
1-4 March 2008
Expansion
demand
DGVT meeting – Brdo
Million jobs
250
Past and
200
likely
future
150
qualification
100
trends
(EU-25+)
50
High qualification
Medium qualification
Low qualification
1-4 March 2008
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0
DGVT meeting – Brdo
100%
Past and
likely
future
qualification
structure
(EU-25+)
20.9
25.3
29.3
80%
60%
46.2
Medium qualification
48.6
49.9
40%
20%
32.9
Low qualification
26.2
20.8
0%
1996
1-4 March 2008
High qualification
2006
2015
DGVT meeting – Brdo
Past and likely future qualification
structure (Slovenia)
100%
15.6%
24.1%
80%
30.3%
High qualification
60%
60.5%
Medium qualification
60.6%
59.2%
40%
20%
23.9%
15.4%
10.5%
2006
2015
0%
1996
1-4 March 2008
Low qualification
DGVT meeting – Brdo
13
High qualification
Past
and
likely
future
qualification
change
(EU-25+)
12.4
13
Medium qualification
9.5
1996-2006
-8
Low qualification
2006-2015
-8.6
18
All qualifications
13.3
-10
-5
0
million jobs
1-4 March 2008
5
10
15
20
DGVT meeting – Brdo
Qualification requirements increase in all
occupations – also in elementary jobs
Change 2006 - 2015
8.3
High-skilled non-manual
occupations
3.3
-0.4
2.4
Low-skilled non-manual
occupations
1.1
-2.3
High qualification
Medium qualification
0.8
Skilled manual
occupations
1.5
-4.8
Low qualification
0.9
Elementary occupations
3.6
-1.0
-5
1-4 March 2008
0
million jobs
5
10
DGVT meeting – Brdo
Key similarities and differences
across countries
• Many common trends:
– sectors, occupations, replacement needs,
qualifications
• Some differences:
– stage of economic development, different
industrial & occupational structures
► process of convergence
1-4 March 2008
DGVT meeting – Brdo
Key findings
Evolutionary structural change towards
service sectors and knowledge-intensive jobs
 over 13 million additional jobs by 2015
– Almost 16 million new jobs in service sector
– Loss of over 2 million jobs in the primary
sector and 0,5 million in manufacturing
1-4 March 2008
DGVT meeting – Brdo
Demand for skilled occupations
today 80 out of 210 million people are
employed in high skilled non manual jobs.
Expected to increase in next decade
jobs requiring generic clerical skills, crafts
and agricultural occupations will decline
increases expected in elementary
occupations (construction, services)
1-4 March 2008
DGVT meeting – Brdo
Qualification needs by 2015
job gains requiring highly (12,5 million) and
medium qualified workers (9,5 million), in
particular vocational qualifications
job losses for low qualified workers (8,5 million),
even in elementary occupations
in 2015, 30% of jobs will need high
qualifications, 50% medium. Low qualifications
will fall from a third in 1996 to around 20%
1-4 March 2008
DGVT meeting – Brdo
Results lead to a knowledge and
competence based European model
that combines needs for
medium and high qualifications and
continuing learning and up-skilling in all
jobs
workers in elementary occupations but
with growing qualifications
1-4 March 2008
DGVT meeting – Brdo
Future priorities
Continuing dialogue: with country experts
and stakeholders
Overcome data problems: policy support
needed to refine data
Further refinement: the models/framework
Complementary research: forecast of skills
supply and more detailed analysis of skill
needs at enterprise and sectoral level
1-4 March 2008
DGVT meeting – Brdo
Contact details for further
information:
Cedefop: www.cedefop.europa.eu
Skillsnet: www.trainingvillage.gr/skillsnet
Alena Zukersteinova
alena.zukersteinova@cedefop.europa.eu
Torsten Dunkel
torsten.dunkel@cedefop.europa.eu
1-4 March 2008