PROGRAM INFORMATION DOCUMENT (PID) APPRAISAL STAGE Report No.:AB7145 Operation Name Region Country Sector Operation ID Lending Instrument Borrower(s) Implementing Agency Date PID Prepared Estimated Date of Appraisal Estimated Date of Board Approval Corporate Review Decision I. PE First Social Inclusion DPL LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN Peru Other social services (60%); General education sector (20%); Health (20%) P131028 Development Policy Lending Government of Peru Ministry of Economy and Finance October 21, 2012 October 22, 2012 December 18, 2012 Following the corporate review, the decision was taken to proceed with the preparation of the operation. Country and Sector Background After nearly 25 years of economic stagnation, Peru has become one of the fastest growing economies in Latin America during the past decade, and the country’s macroeconomic policy stance is adequate for this operation. Growth has been strong, averaging 5.7 percent between 2000 and 2011. Peru’s growth performance is expected to remain robust at 6-6.5 percent during the projection period (2013-2015). Growth will continue to be mostly driven by a robust domestic demand (both consumption and investment), with external demand taking a less prominent role as the external environment is likely to remain weak. Thanks to a conservative fiscal stance, Peru has weathered the recent economic crisis very well, has a solid primary fiscal surplus and a low, declining public debt level. It also has ample fiscal space to respond to external shocks if needed. Peru’s prudent monetary and exchange rate policy are mutually reinforced by a well-balanced external account and an export base that is diversified with respect to commodity price shocks. The fiscal situation will remain strong, with a tendency to increase fiscal savings gradually, reaching an estimated 1.5 percent fiscal surplus by 2015. Total public debt will continue to decline at a fast rate, reaching an estimated 14.9 percent of GDP by 2015, with nearly equal levels of domestic and foreign debt. The current account of the balance of payments is expected to maintain a manageable deficit of 2.3 percent of GDP. The effects of strong growth during the past few years have yielded an important decline in poverty rates. Between 2004 and 2011, poverty declined by 31 percentage points, from nearly 60 percent of the population to just over 28 percent. During the same period, extreme poverty was reduced by more than 60 percent, from 16.7 percent to 6.3 percent of the population. Inequality fell slightly over the past decade, consistent with a proportional increase in consumption among the poor. Between 2004 and 2011, the expenditure-based Gini coefficient 1 declined from 0.44 in 2004 to 0.38 in 2011 However, the Gini coefficient remains one of the highest in the Latin American Region— and signals that the country faces major challenges in reducing gaps in living standards for its population. Furthermore, major disparities in poverty rates have persisted over time. Specifically, in 2011: 56 percent of the rural population lived in moderate poverty as compared with only 18 percent of the urban population. Poverty reduction has also been uneven in the country’s regions. Despite poverty decreases in all regions, the percentage of people living in poverty (61%) in the Sierra Norte is more than double the national total for 2011. By contrast, the central coast and Lima have the lowest poverty rates (around 10%). Peru’s indigenous populations have a higher poverty rate than the non-indigenous population (based on the household head’s ethnicity). Despite the reduction of more than 30 percentage points between 2004 and 2011, the poverty rate remains 32 percent among indigenous populations compared with 20 percent for non-indigenous populations). Furthermore, in 2011, the rate of extreme poverty among the indigenous population was double that of the non-indigenous population. Finally, and despite significant advances in recent years for Peruvian women’s social and economic inclusion – as in other countries of the region – gender gaps persist. In terms of endowments, women educational outcomes and health conditions have remarkably improved in Peru in recent years. In education, gender gaps have closed in primary and secondary education and even reversed in tertiary education. These advances were critical in the observed increases in the female labor force participation rates over the last decade. Nonetheless, this has not been fully translated in enhanced economic opportunities for women. In spite of higher levels of human capital, female workers have more difficulties to reach the top paid occupations and are more likely to be in low productive sectors than their male counterparts. Labor market segmentation and wage gaps still persist, controlling for education, age and sector of occupation. Moreover, differences are more acute in rural areas where teen pregnancy and violence against women remain obstacles to human capital formation for young women. To address the above disparities, Peru has made considerable progress in its social policy agenda, by increasing social spending and expanding social programs. The GoP introduced several initiatives designed to improve the living standards of the most vulnerable populations. These initiatives include, among others, the creation, in 2005, of the Juntos program, a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program, which has the objective of protecting the basic living standards and human capital of households in the poorest districts in the rural highlands of the country; and the Gratitud pilot program in August 2010. The objective of the Program was to provide a basic monthly income (US$100) to people over age 75 living in extreme poverty in three departments and Metropolitan Lima. However, these social programs were isolated and fragmented, with limited institutional coherence. Peru’s social programs were largely characterized by their heterogeneity in terms of goals, target populations, institutional cultures, targeting criteria and eligibility rules, and 2 coverage rates. In short, while the GoP implemented social programs and reforms that sought to mitigate poverty and improve access to social services, these efforts lacked a solid institutional framework upon which to build a coherent reform of social policy and programs. To create an institutional framework that fosters greater inclusion, improves the coherence and effectiveness of social programs, and enhances mechanisms for better access to basic services, the Government created a new institution, the Ministry of Development and Social Inclusion, MIDIS, on October 20, 2011. Under this institutional framework, the GoP has placed special emphasis on three broad social inclusion policy areas for which Bank’s collaboration has been requested. These areas correspond to the three main Policy Areas of the proposed Social Inclusion DPL series, as outlined below. II. Operation Objectives The proposed Social Inclusion DPL1 is the first in a two-part programmatic DPL series whose overarching goal is to enhance the inclusiveness, performance and overall resultsorientation of MIDIS programs and policies. The proposed US$45 million Social Inclusion DPL1 will focus on the framework for and establishment of MIDIS reforms. As mentioned in Section IV, DPL1 is accompanied by a Social Inclusion Technical Assistance Loan (TAL), both of which will be submitted simultaneously for Board approval. The second phase of the MIDIS reform program, which focuses on the consolidation of the reforms, will be supported by DPL2 expected to be submitted to the Board during the first half of calendar year 2014. Consistent with the above context and GoP’s request, the Social Inclusion DPL Series has three main development objectives: (i) supporting the institutionalization of the stewardship of the social inclusion agenda under MIDIS; (ii) laying the foundations for improving the inclusiveness and effectiveness of key MIDIS social programs; and (iii) developing adequate systems for targeting, monitoring and evaluation, and overall coordination. In terms of the programs mentioned under (ii) above, the operation specifically focuses on improving the effectiveness of three social protection programs: the CCT Program Juntos; the social pension program Pension 65, and the school feeding program Qali Warma. Policy Areas and Prior Actions (for DPL1). The proposed Social Inclusion DPL series includes three Policy Areas, which are summarized below. Prior actions for DPL1 will be revised and discussed during appraisal, and after corporate review. The first policy area relates to the consolidation of the institutional framework for the stewardship of the social inclusion agenda under MIDIS, including: (i) the consolidation of the new Ministry itself, which was created by Law in October 2011 but only begun to operate in January 2012. In a very short period, MIDIS has been tasked to organize itself based on the principles established by the law, while generating a radical shift from programs working as “isolated islands” to an integrated policy and operational platform; and (ii) the progressive set-up of its organizational models at sub-national level, with a view to operate effectively and maximize synergies across programs on the ground. 3 The prior action for this Policy Area would be: The GoP has approved the legal and institutional framework required for the stewardship of the social inclusion agenda under MIDIS. By the end of the series, the expected results would be: MIDIS stewardship of the social inclusion agenda is institutionalized, as measured by the establishment of legal and organizational rules at central level and the operation of local integrated units in all regions. The second policy area focuses on improving the inclusiveness and effectiveness of key MIDIS social programs with a special focus on: (i) the expansion of coverage of the CCT Program Juntos and the improvement of the support to users through its social promoters; (ii) the establishment of the social, non-contributory pension program Pension 65, which represents a major achievement in the GoP’s efforts to provide income support for the elderly living in poverty; (iii) the reform of the GoP’s food-based programs, with the path-breaking decision to initiate an ambitious school feeding program, Qali Warma. The prior actions for this Policy Area would be: The GoP has approved the expansion of coverage of Juntos to the districts where SISFOH has carried out a socio-economic evaluation and where the poverty levels are between 40-50% of the population; MIDIS has enhanced the terms of reference to be used for the recruitment of 1000 new local promoters for Juntos in order to improve family support to households; The GoP has approved the expansion of coverage of Pension 65 nationwide; and, The GoP has created the National School Feeding Program, Qali Warma, to ensure food service delivery to children enrolled in public pre-schools (ages 3 and over) and primary schools. By the end of the series, the expected results would be: At least 150,000 new users enrolled in Juntos in districts where the program is not yet operational; At least 90% of local promoters trained in family support methodology; At least 85% of elderly men and women living in extreme poverty receive Pension 65; At least 70% children attending public pre-school and schools are served by Qali Warma; and, At least 40% of districts where Qali Warma operates include mechanisms for transparency and civil society oversight. The third policy area deals with reforming social inclusion policy approaches and systems, which involves: (i) the overhaul of the Household Targeting System SISFOH, so that MIDIS can function more effectively with a clear, transparent and technically sound system to identify social programs’ beneficiaries; (ii) the progressive establishment of a National System of Monitoring and Evaluation for Social Policy, known as Evidencia, in order to improve the effectiveness of 4 social inclusion policies and programs through timely evidence-based decision-making; (iii) the development and implementation of the GoP’s National Social Inclusion Strategy “Growth for Inclusion” (Crecer para Incluir), which the Government has defined as the axis for the intersectoral coordination in the field of social inclusion. In addition to this policy platform, MIDIS will need to ensure the day-to-day organization, coordination, and functioning for the institutional platform that underpins MIDIS’ coordination role, the National System for Social Development and Inclusion (SINADIS). The prior actions for this Policy Area would be: The GoP has started to develop the new institutional framework for SISFOH under MIDIS; The GoP has taken measures to update the General Household Registry; MIDIS has approved guidelines (Lineamientos) for the development of a monitoring and evaluation system for results-based policy formulation and management in the social inclusion sector; and, MIDIS has approved guidelines (Lineamientos) for inter-sectoral and inter-governmental coordination to reduce chronic malnutrition, identifying priority districts where effective interventions will be implemented. By the end of the series, the expected results ( indicators and targets to be confirmed) would be: III. At least 90% of poor households, as estimated by INEI, have their socio-economic information (Ficha Socio-economica Unica) updated by SISFOH within a period not exceeding three years; At least 40% of the recommendations generated through the M&E system implemented by MIDIS Programs; and, Increased coverage of effective interventions defined in the chronic malnutrition guidelines in at least three regions. Rationale for Bank Involvement The rationale for Bank’s involvement is strong: While MIDIS only started operating in January 2012, tremendous progress has already been made in the reforms that would be supported by this operation and the broader DPL series. Of the 9 critical prior actions that have been agreed upon, 8 have already been met and the final action is expected to be met by project negotiations. As described in Section I, the macroeconomic performance is supported by sound policies. This operation is fully consistent with the Bank’s Country Partnership Strategy 2012-2016 that was approved by the Board on November 15, 2011 (Report # 66187-PE). The CPS calls for supporting the Government’s plan of “growth with social inclusion to overcome social gaps and boost productivity”. In particular, the reforms targeted by this Social Inclusion DPL series align with the First Strategic Objective of Increased “Access and Quality of Social Services for the Poor,” and specifically with the first Result Area of “a more inclusive and effective social protection system.” 5 The World Bank collaborates closely with the IMF. The two institutions have worked jointly on fiscal decentralization. The IMF has taken the lead on legislation and design of tax reform, while the Bank has focused on the social sectors and pro-poor policies. A joint Financial Sector Sustainability Assessment (FSAP) was completed in 2001 and updated in April 2011. The preparation of this proposed Social Inclusion DPL series, the TAL and the Bank’s support to MIDIS through non-lending services are being closely coordinated with other relevant international cooperation agencies such as the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB), the German Cooperation Agency (GIZ), and the World Food Program (WFP). IV. Tentative financing Source: Borrower International Bank for Reconstruction and Development Total V. (US$million) 0 45.00 45.00 Tranches Disbursement arrangements will follow the standard procedures for DPLs. The Bank will make a single tranche disbursement of U$45 million following the provisions set forth in OP 8.60, namely: (i) the Bank will deposit the funds into an account designated by the GoP, which forms part of the country’s foreign exchange reserves in the Central Bank of Peru; and (ii) the GoP will ensure that upon deposit of the funds into that account, such amount or an equivalent amount has been accounted for in the country’s budget management system, thus becoming available to finance budgeted expenditures. The GoP will be required to provide a written confirmation of steps (i) and (ii) after funds are disbursed by the Bank. VI. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements Both the MIDIS and the Ministry of Finance are strongly committed to monitor and ensure the timely implementation of the reforms that are targeted by this DPL operation and deepened by the Social Inclusion TAL. MIDIS will ensure the technical monitoring of the reforms and will be the primary responsible entity for developing outcomes and process indicators for both the DPL and the TAL. At the same time, the Sectoral Projects Coordinating Unit (UCPS) in the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) will continue to exercise its overall oversight- as it does for all budget support operations in Peru. In addition, MIDIS Directorate for Monitoring and Evaluation is expected to play a key role in the monitoring and evaluation of program indicators. Dashboards for key monitoring indicators for each of the five MIDIS programs will be developed by the MIDIS Directorate for Monitoring and Evaluation (DGSYE), offering consistent and consolidated information. This will facilitate the supervision of the DPL series, as many of the advances can be monitored remotely through the online dashboards. VII. Risks and Risk Mitigation 6 Economic risks: Economic risks in Peru are low, given that the stable and prudent economic policy stance continues. The sources of possible downside risks stem mainly from the external environment. As described in the Loan Program and Summary (page iii-iv), the impact from the crisis in the Eurozone and a possible slow-down of growth in China would be limited due to diversified commodities exports and low value added contribution of the exports to Europe; less than 9 percent of the total government revenues come from commodities, resulting in low exposure; due to the fact that local subsidiaries of foreign banks fund themselves mostly through local deposits, and enjoy complete independence that is enforced through local regulations, the direct impact of a potential European banking crisis is likely to be limited. Expectations of the domestic private sector are linked to external shocks and, in case of a significant deterioration in external environment, could fall with an impact on domestic demand. Mitigation: External risks are mitigated by a strong fiscal position, prudent monetary policy, and ample international reserves. Based on the experience in 2008, in such circumstances the private sector will look for Government intervention to support demand through a stimulus package. As part of ongoing mitigation of these potential concerns, the Government introduced a “preemptive stimulus” in June 2012, in the amount of 0.4 percent of GDP. The Government has ample fiscal space and savings for counter-cyclical policies, should the need arise. Implementation and Coordination Risks Reversal in policy and the reform agenda as a result of possible changes in MIDIS leadership. In addition, this could be exacerbated by the associated lack of continuity of technical staff, both of which might hamper program implementation, as envisaged under the combined DPL/TAL instruments, with potential negative implications for DPL2 preparation. Institutional and administrative capacity constraints given that MIDIS only started to operate in January 2012. Potential coordination challenges between the two MIDIS Vice-Ministries could jeopardize implementation of the reform. Potential coordination challenges between MIDIS, other ministries and regional governments. Mitigation: There is high Presidential and GoP commitment to the social inclusion agenda as well as a strong MEF support for MIDIS’ focus on results-based orientation, quality and enhanced targeting of social spending. Therefore, any changes in MIDIS leadership are not expected to result in policy reversal. Also, the implementation of the program and the Bank supported operations (DPL & TAL) will be closely monitored and support will 7 also be provided under the Bank non-lending technical assistance. Mitigation measures include: (i) technical support to be provided under the Social Inclusion TAL and on-going Bank knowledge and advisory services; (ii) coordinated support and engagement in the social inclusion reform by multiple donor agencies (see Section IV); (iii) support to be provided by the MEF experienced coordinating unit, UCPS; and (iv) presence of other Bank projects such as the SWAp Juntos for Nutrition. This will be mitigated through regular joint- meetings between the Two-Vice-Ministries and by the fact that they share accountability to deliver results against agreed MIDIS priorities and the Growth with Inclusion Strategy. While MIDIS is charged with overall coordination, it will first focus on strengthening its own programs. Also, MIDIS does not claim to encompass all areas of social policy but rather, focuses on selected cross-cutting areas of the Growth within the Inclusion Strategy (e.g. chronic malnutrition, well-being of poor elderly). This modus operandi will ensure that coordination with other relevant actors is done in a way that defers to their technical capacity while providing a platform for ensuring synergies across all programs. Stakeholder opposition risks Staff and management of social programs that were recently absorbed under the authority of MIDIS are likely to resist changes, especially at the sub-national level. Ultimate users of programs may also create some opposition as some of them may experience losses with revised targeting system and improved transparency. Mitigation: Based on stakeholder analysis, formal and informal consultations, MIDIS is devising strategies to reduce resistance to change, refine the definition of its communication strategy and has initiated the development of users’ feedback mechanisms and grievance mechanisms. The latter will be supported by the TAL. Since the creation of MIDIS in October 2011, the Government has progressively established various informal and formal mechanisms of stakeholder consultations on MIDIS’ proposed reforms. For example, in the context of the reform of the National Food Program (PRONAA), MIDIS started informal consultations with a wide range of women’s associations and this dialogue was then institutionalized by Ministerial Resolution (No 096-2012-MIDIS) with the creation of a Round table. Through the creation of the Quipu Commission, MIDIS has also invited national and international experts to develop innovative proposals for social inclusion policies. Finally to ensure transparency and foster a multi-stakeholder dialogue on the reforms, MIDIS has created a National committee for Public Oversight and Transparency in September 2012. The Committee is chaired by a representative of the President and includes representatives from churches; regional and local governments; civil society (Roundtable for Poverty ReductionMesa de Concertacion para la Reduccion de la Pobreza); and Business Associations. 8 Social Risks Lack of Identification documents for a significant part of MIDIS target population could hamper the success of the reforms, particularly the expansion of coverage of Pension 65 and Juntos. Isolated, poor elderly face challenges in terms of their physical mobility to reach out to payment locations and programs’ meetings and the inability to read and write, especially for poor, rural indigenous women. This could limit their possibility to fully benefit from the program. The envisaged decentralized approach to the Qali Warma School Feeding Program could entail risks of capture of resources at the local level. Mitigation: Risk mitigation measures are discussed in Section VIII below. VIII. Poverty and Social Impacts and Environment Aspects Poverty and Social Impacts. The World Bank team is designing and implementing a two phase Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA) with MIDIS staff. The PSIA is being used as an iterative process and overall approach to identify and monitor the social benefits and potential risks of the reforms supported by the Social inclusion DPL Series and TAL, with a focus on enhancing reform benefits for excluded groups (women, indigenous groups, and the elderly). By the end of the Program series in 2014-2015, it is expected that the PSIA will have: (i) provided a roadmap for participatory monitoring of reforms in order to adjust them as they progress to achieve positive poverty outcomes; and (ii) together with Bank support on poverty analysis, building MIDIS capacity for ex-ante policy analysis of excluded groups. The two phase programmatic approach to PSIA is appropriate as MIDIS is a new Ministry, data constraints have been acute and reforms are evolving. The Phase 1 PSIA focuses on examining available data on the poverty dimensions of the baseline reform programs and identifying key opportunities and risks to the reforms achieving their poverty and social inclusion objectives. Phase 2 PSIA will include in-depth poverty analysis of the impact of reforms and the new targeting approach. It will take place during DPL1 and as part of the preparation of DPL2 as the specifics of the reforms become clearer. Preliminary findings of the first phase are summarized below: The DPL series and the TAL are likely to have positive social impacts on marginalized groups given MIDIS’ explicit commitment to populations in the process of inclusion and its planned improvements in targeting, expansion, and decentralization of programs. Given the nature of the expanded target, the expected positive social benefits of these programs for excluded groups are linked to the capacity of MIDIS to facilitate better access, better grievance redress, and adaptation of approaches to rural and indigenous areas. The reforms for Pension 65 and JUNTOS are largely focused on expansion of programs and increases in benefits, and therefore are likely to have a positive impact on poverty reduction. The ability of Pension 65 to maintain its progressive nature will depend on implementation mechanisms that can ensure proper targeting and accessibility of benefits. 9 The expansion of coverage of JUNTOS and the recruitment of more, and better trained, social promoters is expected to enhance the amount and quality of counseling women and families receive, thereby maximizing the benefits of the program. The creation of a new school feeding program, Qali Warma, has the potential to expand program benefits to areas with higher levels of poverty, but also carries substantial implementation challenges given the pace of reform and risk of capture and corruption if adequate control and transparency mechanisms are not put in place in a timely manner. Indigenous and rural producers have the potential to benefit from the establishment of Qali Warma if the program takes an adaptive approach to nutritional guidance and adapts procedures for smaller scale rural and indigenous producers. Potential losers of the reform include former PRONAA staff who may not be re-hired into Qali Warma and food providers affected by changes in the focus of the food programs and the redefinition of procurement rules and control mechanisms. To address these potential challenges, risk mitigation measures have been developed. Examples are provided below. Access challenges and Pension 65. To address the issue of the lack of identification, the GoP has developed three main measures. First, the Ministry of Economy and Finance has signed a Budget Support Agreement with the agency responsible for issuing identification cards, RENIEC, in order to improve the population’s access to identity documents. Under this agreement, RENIEC is establishing 34 new registry offices in the 120 poorest districts. Second, MIDIS was able to identify the location of people without ID thanks to data provided by INEI and SISFOH and based on this information, it is working in close coordination with RENIEC to develop a communication campaign to reach out to these groups and encourage them to access local registry offices. Finally, the Pension 65 program is now offering financial incentives to its target population to compensate for the cost of transportation linked to the identification procedures. To address logistic and literacy challenges, MIDIS is working closely with local governments and other partners to develop more adequate transport mechanisms for older beneficiaries and alternative, appropriate solutions. In the medium term, the Bank is advising MIDIS on appropriate payment systems, which the TAL also supports. Regarding literacy, MIDIS is coordinating with the Ministry of Education to facilitate access of Pension 65 beneficiaries to the National Program for Literacy (Alfabetizacion). In addition, the newly recruited promoters of Pension 65 have been charged with facilitating the inclusion of those elderly people, both men and women, with specific difficulties (literacy, disability). Qali Warma. Regarding the PRONAA transition, MIDIS is currently engaged with negotiations with former PRONAA staff and devising strategies that are tailored to the different professional status (public servants, local employees). MIDIS is also actively engaged in a dialogue with key identified stakeholders as it is designing the Qali Warma Program ((NGOs, indigenous groups, representatives of rural communities, decentralized small scale food producers, parents committees, congress representatives). With regard to indigenous peoples, Qali Warma has decided to assign specialized decentralize nutritionists to each province in order to facilitate the successful decentralization and adaptation to local cultures. MIDIS will also provide training for these nutritionists on adapted food based 10 dietary guidelines. MIDIS will also pilot the development of local guidelines in different ecocultural zones together with local community and parent groups. Environmental Aspects. The policy actions supported by this operation focus on improvements in social policy processes and, therefore, will not have any effect on the environment, forests, and other natural resources. IX. Contact point World Bank Contact: Carine Clert Title: Sector Leader Tel: 5357+2364 / 51-1-622-2364 Fax: (511) 421-7241. Email: cclert@worldbank.org Location: Lima, Peru (IBRD) Borrower Contact: Title: Tel: Email: Ms. Aida Amezaga Coordinator, Coordination Unit for Sectoral Projects (Unidad de Coordinación de Prestamos Sectoriales -UCPS) 311-5958 aamezaga@mef.gob.pe X. For more information contact: The InfoShop The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, D.C. 20433 Telephone: (202) 458-4500 Fax: (202) 522-1500 11