Discussion Slides - University of Chicago

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Worst-Case Bounds on

Distortions: Theory and Disturbing

R&D and Pricing

the World Income Distribution

Distortions:

Theory and Disturbing

Comments by:

E.T. Grether Professor of Business and Public Policy,

Values Follow the World

University of California, Berkeley

Very intuitive characterization of static versus dynamic DWL

First in a monopoly setting

 Then oligopoly setting

 When a monopolist sets profit-maximizing price, (a) what share of potential market surplus does it capture and (b) how much

DWL does it create.

 Perfect price discrimination is ideal

 back to that in a moment

University of Chicago -- December 3, 2015

Careful assessment extraction ratios under various demand functions

Extraction ratios at the static profit-max price

But d p

/dP is zero at profit max while dDWL/dP is first order. So, other factors could have big effect on dDWL/dP.

What sort of other factors?

Rational firm factors like dynamic pricing in a multiperiod market: lock-in, customer learning, response of competitors (in same or different “market”)

Less mainstream economic factors like empire building, loss aversion, over-confidence, managerial incentives

 Size of second-order loss from different P?

University of Chicago -- December 3, 2015

And how much will firms really know about demand shape?

Demand will be estimated with noise

What are the upside and downside risks of following estimated demand exactly to optimize price?

 In both simple price theoretic model and in organizational model of firm decision making

How should firm’s pricing model optimally incorporate new evidence of demand shape?

 Knowing that demand shape and level is moving target

 Evidence Zipf-similarity predicts markups?

University of Chicago -- December 3, 2015

Entry Cost

Called “R&D”, but really any irreversible investment independent of output scale

 Requires enough surplus extraction to justify market entry

 Similar concern on buyer side with multiple purchases and long relationship that requires up-front investment (eg, learning) in product

Is this case easier because consumers are nonstrategic price- and contract-takers?

But these sellers may be competing against one another where buyers are not

University of Chicago -- December 3, 2015

Equity norms

 Recent drug price increases bring regulatory threat and reputation costs

 Non-economic angry response to scarcity pricing in the absence of market power

 Why do firms justify price increases?

Regulatory threat

Fear of hold-up reputation

Customer search threat

 Distributional considerations generally

University of Chicago -- December 3, 2015

Economy-wide Second-Best

Considerations

Public Finance / Environmental Economics take this seriously, but IO generally passes

Example: Big positive society spillover to

(market-level) efficient pharmaceutical pricing and entry, less so in beer market

Won’t be able to track down every distortion, but to take welfare analysis seriously, some discussion of other distortions seems in order

University of Chicago -- December 3, 2015

Thank You!

University of Chicago -- December 3, 2015

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