Green Growth: Powering Innovation
Daniel M. Kammen
Co-Director, Berkeley Institute of the Environment
Energy and Resources Group & Goldman School of Public Policy
Department of Nuclear Engineering
University of California, Berkeley
Materials online at: http://rael.berkeley.edu
UCLA/Lake Arrowhead Summit, October 15, 2007
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Global Energy Supply by Fuel
A massive carbon
Baseline & inertia
Sufficient opportunities
exist
Fastest growth,
smallest sectors
Fossil Energy
Other Energy
Wind, Solar & Biofuels
MBDOEAverage Growth / Yr.
MBDOE
MBDOE
350
2000 - 2030
70
1.6%
1.6%
300
60 Wind & Solar20.5%
250
1.6%
200
1.6%
150
100
50 Biofuels 7.2%
1.7%
Coal
Gas
1.3%
50
Oil
0
1980
2005
2030
10
4
Solar 8.4%
3
1.4%
30
20
8.8%
2.2%
40
Hydro/Geo
Other
5
2
12.5%
Nuclear
Biomass /
Other
0
1980
2005
Wind
1.0%
2030
1
Biofuels
0
1980
2005
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
7.2%
2030
Renewable Energy Portfolio Standards
24 states + DC, and counting
MN: 10% by 2015 Goal +
Xcel mandate of
1,125 MW wind by 2010
*WA: 15% by 2020
MT: 15% by 2015
VT: RE meets load
growth by 2012
ME: 30% by 2000;
10% by 2017 goal - new RE
WI: requirement varies by
utility; 10% by 2015 Goal
MA: 4% by 2009 +
1% annual increase
OR: 25% by 2025
RI: 15% by 2020
CT: 10% by 2010
IA: 105 MW
CA: 20% by 2010
NV: 20% by 2015
CO: 10% by 2015
NY: 24% by 2013
IL: 8% by 2013
NJ: 22.5% by 2021
PA: 18%¹ by 2020
*MD: 7.5% by 2019
AZ: 15% by 2025
*NM: 10% by 2011
*DE: 10% by 2019
DC: 11% by 2022
TX: 5,880 MW by 2015
HI: 20% by 2020
State RPS
State Goal
* Increased credit for solar or other customer-sited renewables
PA: 8% Tier I (renewables)
Solar water
heating eligible
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Green job creation
Federal + state RPS yields
+348,000 jobs in 2025
350
120
Green jobs created
(thousands of person years)
400
100
Other 18 states
with an RPS
Nevada
80
Illinois
60
300
250
200
Texas
New York
40
150
Pennsylvania
20
100
50
California
-
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Renewable energy generated (TWh)
plus Federal RPS
140
Best Research-Cell Efficiencies
36
32
Efficiency (%)
28
24
20
16
12
Multijunction Concentrators
Three-junction (2-terminal, monolithic)
Two-junction (2-terminal, monolithic)
Crystalline Si Cells
Single crystal
Multicrystalline
Thin Film Technologies
Cu(In,Ga)Se2
Spire
CdTe
Amorphous Si:H (stabilized)
Westing- ARCO
house
Emerging PV
No. Carolina
Dye cells
State University
Solarex
Organic cells Boeing
Kodak
Spectrolab
Spectrolab
NREL
University
So. Florida
ARCO
8
Monosolar
Kodak
Boeing
4
RCA
0
1975
University
RCA
of Maine
RCA
RCA RCA
RCA
1980
Boeing
NREL
Boeing
Photon Energy
Solarex
2005 Annual PV Installations
Average Cost for Residential System
Average Cost Reduction from 99-04
NREL
United Solar
University of
Lausanne
United Solar
Groningen Siemens
Princeton
University of
Lausanne
UCSB
Kodak
1985
NREL
Cu(In,Ga)Se2
UNSW NREL14x concentration
NREL
NREL
NREL
Euro-CIS
AMETEK
Boeing
RCA
Georgia Tech
Sharp
Georgia Tech
Varian
UNSW UNSW
UNSW
UNSW
Stanford
NREL/
Spectrolab
NREL
UNSW
Spire
(various technologies)
Masushita
Japan
Energy
1990
California
50 MW
$8.8/Wac
5.2%/year
1995
Cambridge
University
University Linz
Berkeley Linz
2000
Japan
290 MW
$7.4/Wac
8.9%/year
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
2005
Roll on PV cells.
Solar photovoltaic installations of thin film cells, in Germany
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Green job creation
More renewables = more jobs
Jobs
(total person-yrs/TWh)
Employment Components
Equipment
lifetime
(years)
Capacity
Factor
Construction,
Manufacturing
and Installation
(person-yr/MWp)
Operation and
Maintenance
(jobs/MWp)
140
25
21%
32
0.3
0
1
660
550
25
21%
30
1.0
0
3
Wind 1
50
30
25
35%
4
0.1
0
1
Wind 2
290
30
25
35%
22
0.1
0
2
Biomass - high estimate
50
280
25
85%
9
0.4
220
1
Biomass - low estimate
50
40
25
85%
9
0.04
40
1
Coal
30
80
40
80%
9
0.2
60
1
Gas
30
80
40
85%
9
0.1
70
4
Energy Technology
Construction,
Manufacturing,
Installation
O&M and
fuel
processing
PV 1
710
PV 2
Fuel extraction Source of
and
Numbers
processing
(personyrs/TWh)
Sources
[1] REPP, 2001
[2] EWEA/Green-peace, 2003
[3] Greenpeace, 2001
[4] Kammen, from REPP, 2001; CALPIRG, 2003; BLS, 2004
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Plug In Partners / e.g.
CalCars.org
PHEV Off-Peak Electricity Demand
(One million PHEVS in CA)
•
•
Model: IPM
Additional load from PHEVs is small
PHEVs could be charged mostly via base-load filling during
evenings and nights, when electricity costs are low
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA
BERKELEY
REPORT OF THE
RENEWABLE AND APPROPRIATE ENERGY
LABORATORY
Putting Renewables to Work:
How Many Jobs Can the
Clean Energy Industry
Generate?
by
Daniel M. Kammen
Kamal Kapadia
Matthias Fripp
Report
available
at:
of the
Energy and Resources Group &
the Goldman School of Public Policy
Study reviews:
• 13 studies of
job creation
• 3 - 5 times
More jobs per
dollar invested
in the
renewables
sector than in
fossil fuels
APRIL 13, 2004
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
An Alternative Fuel is Not Necessarily a
Low-Carbon Fuel, but it can be
60
s)
Sa
nd
n
or
)
G
om
)
lu
el
n
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or
Et
ha
no
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ha
Et
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C
lo
se
om
Bi
l(
C
no
ha
Et
0
C
C
as
lu
el
ha
Et
10
s
lo
no
l(
se
)
C
Bi
or
D
)
n
od
ie
Bi
se
Et
l
ha
as
no
20
s)
l(
C
Et
ha
or
n
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no
Et
h
l(
To
an
da
ol
y)
(C
e
in
ol
as
G
FT
(C
oa
C
lC
C
oa
l)
D
)
ar
(T
e
in
ol
as
30
G
lbs CO2/gal gasoline equivalent
40
G
as
ol
in
e
(S
ha
le
)
50
FT
(C
oa
l)
FT (Coal)
Gasoline (Shale)
Gasoline (Tar Sands)
FT (Coal CCD)
Gasoline
Ethanol (Corn Coal)
Ethanol (Today)
Ethanol (Corn NG)
Biodiesel
Ethanol (Corn Biomass)
Ethanol (Cellulose)
Ethanol (Corn Biomass CCD)
Ethanol (Cellulose CCD)
1
-10
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Land Required to Satisfy Current U.S. Mobility Demand
CRP Land
(30 MM)
U.S. Cropland
(400 MM)
Status quo
36 gal Geq/ton, current mpg, no ag. integration, 5 tons/acre*yr
Advanced
processing
91 gal Geq/ton
Vehicle efficiency 2.5X↑
165
Biomass yield 2.5X↑
65
1,030
410
LDV
HDV
Agricultural integration
I. Soy  switchgrass
or large biomass soy
-10
Early-cut switchgrass produces more feed protein/acre
than soy; similar benefits from “large biomass soy”
II. Corn stover (72%)
-50
Feasibility of stover utilization enhanced by rotation
Winter cover crops, other residues, increased productivity
of food crops, increased production on under-utilized land…
III. Other
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
New Land Required (million acres)
1,200
U.S. mobility demand, the largest per capita in the world, could be met from
land now
used for agriculture while maintaining food production (L. Lynd)
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Miscanthus Late Summer
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Winter Stand Recovered After Ice-Storm
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Renewable Energy Portfolio Standards
24 states + DC, and counting
MN: 10% by 2015 Goal +
Xcel mandate of
1,125 MW wind by 2010
*WA: 15% by 2020
MT: 15% by 2015
VT: RE meets load
growth by 2012
ME: 30% by 2000;
10% by 2017 goal - new RE
WI: requirement varies by
utility; 10% by 2015 Goal
MA: 4% by 2009 +
1% annual increase
OR: 25% by 2025
RI: 15% by 2020
CT: 10% by 2010
IA: 105 MW
CA: 20% by 2010
NV: 20% by 2015
CO: 10% by 2015
NY: 24% by 2013
IL: 8% by 2013
NJ: 22.5% by 2021
PA: 18%¹ by 2020
*MD: 7.5% by 2019
AZ: 15% by 2025
*NM: 10% by 2011
*DE: 10% by 2019
DC: 11% by 2022
TX: 5,880 MW by 2015
HI: 20% by 2020
State RPS
State Goal
* Increased credit for solar or other customer-sited renewables
PA: 8% Tier I (renewables)
Solar water
heating eligible
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Solar & Distributed Generation
Provisions in RPS Policies
WA: double credit for DG
NY: 0.1542% customer-sited by 2013
NV: 1% solar by 2015;
2.4 to 2.45 multiplier for PV
NJ: 2.12% solar electric by 2021
PA: 0.5% solar PV by 2020
CA: 3,000 MW or more via
SB1 & Million solar roofs
CO: 0.4% solar electric by 2015
DE: triple credit for solar electric
MD: double credit for solar electric
DC: 0.386% solar electric by 2022
AZ: 4.5% DG by 2025
NM: triple credit for solar electric
TX: 500 MW non-wind
DG: Distributed Generation
Solar water heating counts
towards solar set-aside
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Federal R&D Investments, 1955 - 2004
R&D (billion 2002$s)
120
100
80
Defense
Space
Health
Energy
General Science
Other
60
40
20
0
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Margolis & Kammen, Science, 1999
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Patents and R&D Funding Correlated
Kammen and Nemet (2005)
“Reversing the incredible shrinking energy R&D budget,” Issues in Science & Technology, Fall, 84 – 88.
And Nemet, dissertation, 2007
If you think US public sector energy R&D funding is
doing poorly …
R&D (2002 $b)
8
6
Public energy R&D
Private energy R&D
4
2
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Kammen and Nemet (2005)
“Reversing the incredible shrinking energy R&D budget,” Issues in Science & Technology, Fall, 84 – 88.
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Summary of GHG Emissions for Typical U.S. Household
(LEAPS Results) 50 Metric tons of CO2 equivalent gases
56%
44%
public trans.
airlines
Indirect
Direct
Auto services
50
Auto
manufacturing
45
40
Gasoline
public trans.
Air travel
other fuels
natural gas
35
electricity
water & sewage
30
Financing
25
Construction
20
Other fuels
15
Natural
gas
Gasoline
Electricity
10
cereals
Alcohol & tobacco
5
Dairy
Snack food
0
Fruit & veg.
Eating out
Total
furniture.
cleaning supplies.
entertainment.
Household equip.
Meat
Clothing
education
giving
healthcare
Renewable
Transportation
and Appropriate
Energy
- rael.berkeley.edu
Housing
FoodLaboratory Goods
Services
Global CO2 Abatement Opportunities
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu