Raising Investment Standards
TRADING SEMINAR
Raising Investment Standards
DISCLAIMER
Leveraged foreign exchange and options trading carries a significant level of
risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can
work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign
exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of
experience, and risk appetite.
You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and
option trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you
have any doubts.
The contents provided in this seminar are subject to change at any time without
notice.
There is no guarantee that the systems, trading techniques, trading methods,
indicators or other information presented at this seminar will result in profits or
not result in losses. The content is provided for informational purposes only and
is not intended as a trading recommendation.
FX TRADING
I.
The Basics
II.
Trading Tools
III. Money Management
FX Market
What is FX?
Characteristics
 High Volume: USD 4 trillion/day
- 80% speculation
High Liquidity: Tight Fixed Spread
High Leverage: 1:100
Trading Hours: 24/6
Accessible
Purely Electronic
Short Selling without any rule
Fits Technical Analysis Studies
FX Market
FX as an Asset Class
 Major Currencies

USD,EUR,CHF,GBP,CAD,JPY,AUD,NZD
Traded in Pairs: EUR/USD, AUD/USD…
More Combinations EUR/GBP….
FX Market
Tick Size
0.1 Pip :
the smallest price increment
in FX trading
Pip Value :
depends upon the pair being traded and its price
FX Market
Leverage
Loss and Recovery Simulation
Initial Capital: $ 10.000
Loss
1%
1%
1%
1%
Recovery
1:1
1:5
$9,900.00 $9,500.00
$9,801.00 $9,050.00
$9,702.99 $8,604.50
$9,605.96 $8,162.95
4%
22%
FX Movers
 Global Macro
 Key Economic Indicators
 Interest Rates Differentials
 Risk Appetite V/S Risk Aversion
 M&A Activity
 Auction Results
Advantages Of AKSYS Trading Platform

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Most competitive fixed spread
Commission-free trading
Swap free trading
No slippage
Minimum of 10,000 trading unit
Streamlined dealing on real-time prices
Place orders inside the spread
Hedging capabilities
No debit balance
Built in back-office
Round the clock help desk :
 Technical analysis
 Macro views
 Execution
AKSYS Trading Platform
 Order types :
 Market Orders
 Order Types :
 Pending Orders
 Understanding The Terminal
Money Management & Trading Strategies

Trading Frequency

Trading Size

Trader Behavior

The Fallacy Of Winning Streak
Trading Frequency
 High:
 Always in the market
 Hit & Run
 Between 10 to 30 trades per day
 Cut all accumulated losses when breaking a trading range
Trading Frequency
 Low :

Opportunistic

Swing Positioning

Between 2 to 3 trades per week

Trailing Stop Loss
Trading Size
 On a fixed USD stop loss value basis
 Consistency
 Check your risk level
AMOUNT OF EQUITY
LOST
RETURN REQUIRED
TO RESTORE
INITIAL VALUE
25 %
50 %
33 %
100 %
75 %
400 %
90 %
1000 %
Trader Behavior
 Trend
 Buy / Sell continuous patterns
 Counter Trend
Sell Resistance
Buy Support
The Fallacy Of Winning Streak
Trade
P&L pips
1
+ 30 pips
2
+ 25 pips
3
+ 35 pips
4
- 110 pips
Total
- 20 pips
The trader has a 75% winning trades
but ends up losing money.
The Fallacy Of Winning Streak
Trade
P&L pips
1
- 30 pips
2
+ 50 pips
3
- 35 pips
4
+ 60 pips
Total
+ 45 pips
The trader has a 50% winning trades
and ends up winning money.
Adding To A Winning Position
EUR/USD:
Position
Risk
Risk Vs
Position
size
Market move
Short 20k at
1.5020
200 $
1%
Adjust stop on
entry for 20k
and add 20k at
1.4970
200 $
0.5 %
- 50 pips
Adjust stop on
entry for 40k
and add 20k at
1.4920
200 $
0.33 %
- 50 pips
Technical Analysis

What is Technical Analysis
Technical analysis is defined as the art of
forecasting the market trend direction through
analyzing the current and historical price action
and projecting it into the future by using different
tools.

Historical Glance
Homma Munehisa(1724-1803)
Charles Henry Dow (1851-1902)
Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871- 1948)
William Delbert Gann 1878-1955)
The Use Of Technical Analysis
It provides:
 The time to enter the market
 Decision: Long, Short, or Not to enter
 The Stop Loss Level (invalidation of the scenario or bias)
 The Time Frame Of The Trend
 The Profit Taking Level (Trade Objective)
 All these factors are exploited in product structuring in order to
estimate the product maturity (duration of the trend) and the bias
of the product (direction of the trend) barrier level (support
resistance).
Technical Analysis Tools Explained
The Three Major Factors For Technical Analysis are:
 Time
 Pattern
 Price
TIME
Time is divided into five categories:
 Dynamic Projections/Retracements/Alternations form tops and bottoms
 Fixed Time Cycles
 Seasonal Cycles
 Astrologic Cycles
 Gann Squares and Fibonacci Numbers
Examples
Swings relation based of the Fibonacci ratios to achieve a time cluster for a top
Fixed Cycle
GBP/USD daily chart: Every 12 trading days a bottom is marked even though is adown or
an uptrend.
Seasonal Cycles
Known as “anniversary dates”: you choose a specific date or period for a specific chart and check
it historically to know the behavior of the market at this period.
Application of the Fibonacci series number and ratios between bottom and tops on time analysis
PATTERNS
Patterns are divided into three categories:

Classical

One to Three Bars

Elliott Waves
Classical Patterns
 These patterns are discovered by observing and studying the historical charts data
 Their names often reflect the shape of the formation such as the Double Top, Double
Bottom, Head and Shoulders Top, Flags and so on. Example:
An inverted head & shoulder that reverse this daily bearish trend.
A continuation wedge in a daily Bearish trend
A continuation wedge in a daily Bearish trend
One to Three Bar Patterns
These reversal bars are telling you that the trend for that time frame has run out of
gas and that no new buyers or sellers are coming into the market.
 Outside Key Reversal
 Key Reversal
 Reversal Bar
 Snap-Back Reversal
 Signal Bar
 Gap Signal
 Reversal Confirmation
Example: An hourly up trend with a reversal bar pattern at each bottom.
Reversal Bar Pattern at each top on the Euro Hourly Chart .
Elliott Waves
 There are five waves in the direction of the main trend followed by three
corrective waves (a "5-3" move)
 An impulsive wave (1, 3, 5), which goes with the main trend, always shows five
waves in its pattern
 Corrective waves within a five wave sequence are waves two and four.
 Once a five wave pattern completes, the entire sequence should be
corrected by a pattern of either three waves (ABC )
PRICE
 Wave patterns of a similar degree are related to each other by
Fibonacci ratios.
 Fibonacci numbers provide the mathematical foundation for the
Elliott Wave Theory.
 The challenging part of Elliott Wave Theory is figuring out the
relativity of the wave structure.
 Important price levels will be found when a narrow price zone is
projected from several different ratios and from several different
degrees.
Here is a squaring between time and price based on Fibonacci ratios that confirm the count of
Elliott wave
Minor Factors
 Oscillators:
 Moving Average Convergence Divergence “MACD”
Relative Strength Index: RSI
 The Oscillators are used to indicate:
 Overbought and Oversold Areas
 Divergences
Moving Averages:
The Moving Averages are used to indicate:
 The direction of the trend
 Dynamic Supports and Resistances
Putting all together:
Here (EUR chart above) is a combination of all technical tools described
before:
 Time:
 Fixed Cycle Bottom vs. Top that indicates a time zone for a top.
 Patterns:
Elliott Wave count for four degree (lesser degree confirm the higher
ones)
One bar reversal at each bottom to confirm the new up move.
 Price:
Price relations Elliott Wave Theory using Fibonacci Ratios to marker
objectives: 100% 161% form WI, 38.2% from WI-III, 100% from last
swing projected from the bottom of WIV.
 EMA:
Exponential moving averages (50,66,252) acting as dynamic supports
and resistance.
 RSI and MACD:
Reaching a repeated historically level that confirm the reversal bar at
each bottom.
After:
 Since 13 June 2007 the EUR is trending upward forming a 5 waves
cycle (blue degree) confirmed by the lesser ones (green & red).
Forming on the highs, a potential double top accompanied by a clear
divergences on both MACD (39.19.9)& RSI (14) on daily and weekly
charts & a confirmed Head & Shoulder at the right top.
 Over a year this upward rally was sustained by the 133 EMA (green
dotted line) and the Red trend line that are breached 2 times.
 The sideways range since 23 April 2008 has overbalanced in Price and
Time the similar formation that started 23Nov 2007 ended 7 Feb 2008.
 All these technical indications suggest that the EUR is suffering at
these levels to test bearish first support 1.5285 (neckline of double
top + W4) that will squeeze the market on its break at least 750 pips
gradually 1.4968, 1.4652, 1.4311
 What invalid the bearish bias is the break of 1.6038 otherwise every
upward rally is considered as a selling opportunity.
GBP/USD hourly chart shows a market rhythm (equality between the impulsive down moves
and the corrective up ounces)
CONCLUSION
 Technical analysis is a tactical method that generates substantial profits.
 The selection of the trade is done by the combination of the different
technical methods and dimensions.
 Besides, technical analysis is a decision tool for asset allocators, product
structures, hedge fund managers for its high probability of accuracy in
market timing and opportunity spotting.
Raising Investment Standards
6th Floor, Netherlands Tower, Charles Malek Avenue
P.O.Box: 16-6631, Beirut, Lebanon
Phone: +961 1 217 888
Fax:
+961 1 217 889
E-mail: contact@aksyscapital.com
Web: www.aksyscapital.com