Economics for Business II Day 9 – Some values (numbers) Dr. Andrew L. H. Parkes “A Macroeconomic Understanding for use in Business” 卜安吉 Growth in Prices Inflation – 6.2% over the past year to Aug. What is the effect on wages? In the U.S., the minimum wage rate is $7.25, what was the real wage during the past year at 6.2% inflation? , OLD NUMBERS – What are today’s? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/china-strength-defies-hard-landing-scenario.html April 24, 2012 BECO II, Day 9 2 CPI and GDP deflator Historically April 24, 2012 BECO II, Day 9 3 Industrial Production A monthly measure of the economic growth goal – Increased at 13.5% rate last month was 14% y-o-y OLD NUMBERS! From FALL – today’s???? , Expectations are for economic growth at about 8.4% (down from the first half growth of 9.6%) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-09/china-s-stock-futures-rise-amid-obama-jobs-plan-easing-inflation-outlook.html http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/china-strength-defies-hard-landing-scenario.html April 24, 2012 BECO II, Day 9 4 Interest Rates One year lending rate is 6.56% One year deposit rate is 3.5% The reserve requirement is 21.0% for the largest banks , http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/china-strength-defies-hard-landing-scenario.html April 24, 2012 BECO II, Day 9 5 Yuan trades at what rate today? See BB (Blackboard.com) for articles we discuss! Three Goals of any MACROECONOMY – Full Employment – Unemployment Rate – Economic Growth – REAL GDP – Price Stability - CPI – KNOW what real GDP and CPI mean – On the Final Exam April 24, 2012 BECO II, Day 9 6 U. S. Real GDP 2005 - 2009 http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdp_glance.htm April 24, 2012 BECO II, Day 9 7 U. S. Real GDP 2005 - 2009 http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdp_glance.htm April 24, 2012 BECO II, Day 9 8 Personal Income & Spending http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pi_glance.htm April 24, 2012 BECO II, Day 9 9 Consumer Price Index 1999 - 2009 April 24, 2012 BECO II, Day 9 10 Oil Prices 1990 to 2010 April 24, 2012 BECO II, Day 9 11 Oil Prices during year 4/10 -11 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/commodities/143908/twelve_month.stm April 24, 2012 BECO II, Day 9 12 Oil Prices during year 4/10 -11 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/commodities/143908/twelve_month.stm April 24, 2012 BECO II, Day 9 13 Trade Balance in the U.S. http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/transactions/trans_glance.htm April 24, 2012 BECO II, Day 9 14 Trade Surplus Also recently announced were the higher than expected Chinese import and export numbers for August. However, the trade surplus was $17.76 billion, lower than expected! The median forecast was for $24.6 billion after a gap of $31.5 billion in July! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-10/china-s-trade-surplus-in-august-reaches-17-76-billion-exports-rise-24-5-.html April 24, 2012 BECO II, Day 9 15 Chapter 23 U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.bls.gov/cpi/ April 24, 2012 Pay attention to the definition of the CPI in class! – “Urban Market Basket” What is the CPI in U.S.? In China? - Assignment The Cost of Living is measured by the CPI BECO II, Day 9 16 Cost of Living Adjustment Four problems with using the CPI for a Perfect measure of a COLA 1. 2. 3. 4. Substitution Bias Introduction of new goods Unmeasured quality changes Typical Average Family April 24, 2012 BECO II, Day 9 17 Developed Countries Unemployment April 24, 2012 BECO II, Day 9 18 Geographic Distribution of Unemployment, July 2009 April 24, 2012 BECO II, Day 9 19 Problem Set 6: Inflation Basics CPI and GDP deflator Some basic ideas and concepts April 24, 2012 BECO II, Day 9 20