Bank liquidity creation and risk taking during distress

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Board Composition and

Bank Risk Taking

Allen N. Berger

U N I V E R S I T Y O F S O U T H C A R O L I N A , W H A R T O N F I N A N C I A L

I N S T I T U T I O N S C E N T E R , A N D C E N T E R – T I L B U R G U N I V E R S I T Y

Thomas Kick

D E U T S C H E B U N D E S B A N K

Klaus Schaeck

B A N G O R U N I V E R S I T Y

C o n f e r e n c e “ C o r p o r a t e G o v e r n a n c e o f F i n a n c i a l I n s t i t u t i o n s ”

A m s t e r d a m

N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 2

This paper represents the authors’ personal opinions and does not necessarily reflect the views of Deutsche Bundesbank or its staff.

Board Composition and Risk Taking

Introduction – Hypotheses – Data and Methodology – Results – Conclusion

2

 The recent financial crisis highlights the importance of risk taking by banks and the larger consequences of excessive risk taking for society as a whole.

Much of the blame for the crisis and suggested remedies have focused on corporate governance arrangements.

 While others have argued for and studied restrictions on inside ownership and executive compensation, we take a different approach and look at executive board composition.

 While there are studies of board composition elsewhere, we focus on banks, where risk taking is of first-order importance.

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Introduction – Hypotheses – Data and Methodology – Results – Conclusion

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Research Question:

How does executive board composition affect bank risk taking?

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Introduction – Hypotheses – Data and Methodology – Results – Conclusion

4

Paper has a (management) team perspective

Management board forms a team that interacts dynamically.

Composition of the “team” is crucial in shaping outcomes.

(e.g., Holmstrom (1982, BJE); Bolton and Dewatripont (2005, MIT press))

Composition: Socioeconomic characteristics

• age

• gender education

 We study a country with two-tier board system (Germany)

Executive board

Direct responsibility for the management of the company.

Runs the corporation, makes decisions and reports to the supervisory board.

Supervisory board

Monitors the management, i.e. gives consent to certain transactions.

Appoints and dismisses members of the executive board on behalf of the shareholders.

We focus on the composition of the executive board

This generalizes directly to other nations with two-tier board systems (of which there are many)

The results may generalize to executive members of the board in one-tier board countries

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Board Composition and Risk Taking

Introduction – Hypotheses – Data and Methodology – Results – Conclusion

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Focus on banks and risk taking

Policy relevance.

Impact of governance arrangements in banking on wider society, as illustrated by the recent financial crisis.

Hau and Thum (2009, EP); Illueca, Norden, and Udell (2012, AEA Paper)

Literature generally excludes regulated industries.

Bertrand and Schoar (2003, QJE); Fich (2005, JB); Farrell and Hersch (2006, JCF)

Adds to the emerging evidence on governance arrangements in banking.

Fahlenbrach and Stulz (2011, JFE); Adams and Mehran (2012, JFI).

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Introduction – Hypotheses – Data and Methodology – Results – Conclusion

6

Age

Perception of young managers’ overconfidence and old managers’ wisdom

Expect strong effect of experience on risk taking behavior

Theory and literature also suggest inverse association between age and risk taking

Knowledge of risky situations and ability to control risk increases with age

Grable et al. (2009, JBER), Russo and Schoemaker (1992, SMR) , Gervais and Odean (2001, RFS)

Empirical evidence points towards a negative relationship

Campbell (2001, JF), Sahm (2007, FRB) and Grable et al. (2009, JBER)

Age hypothesis

HI: Risk taking decreases in executive board age

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Introduction – Hypotheses – Data and Methodology – Results – Conclusion

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Gender

Perception of risk loving male and risk averse female managers

Anecdotal evidence on women being more prudent in financial decision making (e.g., microfinance)

Important in light of recently passed, proposed (and then scrapped) minimum quotas for women on boards and on executive teams in Europe

Theory and literature is ambiguous

Growing debate on the effect of gender on economic outcomes e.g. Croson and Gneezy (2009, JEL) , Schubert, Brown, Glyser, and Brachinger (1999 AER P&P)

Investment literature suggests women are more risk averse e.g. Barber and Odean (2001, QJE), Niederle and Vesterlund (2007, QJE), Goel and Thakor (2008, JF)

Governance: female directors are less risk averse and reduce performance

Adams and Funk (2012, MS); Ahern and Dittmar (2012, QJE)

Little evidence on the effect in banking except for loan officers

Agarwal and Wang (2009, Working Paper) and Beck, Behr, and Güttler (forthcoming,RoF)

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Introduction – Hypotheses – Data and Methodology – Results – Conclusion

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Gender Hypotheses

HII a: A higher representation of female executives reduces risk taking

HII b: A higher representation of female executives increases risk taking

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Introduction – Hypotheses – Data and Methodology – Results – Conclusion

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Education

Education affects knowledge of and perception of risk e.g. risk management techniques taught in business schools

International efforts to encourage banks’ appointment of knowledgeable directors: Basel Committee on Banking

Supervision (2006)

Stereotype of MBA graduates’ aggressive management style

Theory and literature is ambiguous

More risk taking suggested for household decisions

Carducci and Wong (1998, JBP); Grable (2002); Christiansen, Joensen, and Rangvid (2008, RoF)

MBA literature is ambiguous

More sophisticated project valuation techniques, Graham and Harvey (2001, JFE)

But aggressive style and more leverage, Bertrand and Schoar (2003, QJE)

Negative relationship suggested for corporate outcomes

Financing and acquisition policies: Güner, Malmendier, and Tate (2008, JFE)

Failure of financial institutions: Fich and Fernandes (2009, Working Paper)

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Introduction – Hypotheses – Data and Methodology – Results – Conclusion

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Education hypotheses

HIII a: Better educated executives engage in less risk taking

HIII b: Better educated executives engage in greater risk taking

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Introduction – Hypotheses – Data and Methodology – Results – Conclusion

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Data

Proprietary data from the Deutsche Bundesbank

Complete and detailed information on executives’ age, gender, and education

Time horizon 1994-2010

19,750 bank-year observations for 3,525 banks

 o o

Estimation setup

Difference in difference matching estimation – exploits exogenous variation via mandatory retirements

Matching criteria

 size (+/- 20 percent of the treatment bank’s size in terms of total assets)

 performance (+/- 20 percent of the treatment bank’s ROE)

 board size held constant

 bank type (public banks, cooperative banks, and private banks)

 time period (year)

Sample excludes ‘bad’ banks (banks with interventions, capital support, distress merger banks)

Final sample: 10,719 bank-year observations for 2,490 banks

Risk measure

RWA/Total Assets – risk on and off the balance sheet

Used in regulatory treatment and in empirical literature

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Board Composition and Risk Taking

Introduction – Hypotheses – Data and Methodology – Results – Conclusion

12

Methodology and Identification

Difference-in-difference estimator

Y i

:

Post:

Treated:

X it

:

Measure of risk taking for bank i in year t

Dummy for Post change period in board composition

Dummy if the bank experienced a Board change

Control variables

Focus:

Interaction term: Post × Treated captures the effect of an executive board change due to retirements in the period after the change takes place. The slope coefficient of the interaction term therefore allows isolating effect of the change in executive board composition on the risk measure.

We consider at most one executive board change of each type per bank.

We examine the seven-year time window surrounding the executive board change and consider the three years prior to, the three years following, and the actual year of the executive board change.

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Board Composition and Risk Taking

Introduction – Hypotheses – Data and Methodology – Results – Conclusion

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Controls

Total assets

Capacity to absorb risk, too-big-to-fail

Charter value (core deposits/Total assets)

Affects risk taking, e.g. Dell’Ariccia and Marquez (2006, JF)

Capital adequacy ratio

Affects moral hazard and monitoring incentives

Morrison and White (2005, AER),

Allen, Carletti, and Marquez (2011, RFS)

Merger dummy

May reflect changes in risk attitudes

Powerful CEO (tenure)

Influential CEOs affect risk taking

Adams, Almeida, and Ferreira (2005, RFS)

Executive board size

Expect less risk taking for large boards

Sah and Stiglitz (1986, JPE)

Share of customer loans and off balance sheet items in total assets

Control for bank balance sheet composition and business model

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Board Composition and Risk Taking

Introduction – Hypotheses – Data and Methodology – Results – Conclusion

14

Growth of total assets (deflated)

Banks that experience substantial growth msy run a higher degree of risk

GDP growth (county)

Control for macroeconomic environment, booms coincide with increased risk-taking e.g. Dell’Ariccia and Marquez (2006, JF)

Population (log, state)

Controls for market size

Interest rate spread

Spread between 10 and 1 year bonds

Time trend

Mitigate serial correlation concerns

Bertrand, Duflo, and Mullainathan (2004, QJE)

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Board Composition and Risk Taking

Introduction – Hypotheses – Data and Methodology – Results – Conclusion

15

Descriptive statistics

Treatment Group

(1)

Mean S.D.

Mean

Control Group

(2)

S.D.

Mean

All banks

(3)

S.D.

Executive board characteristics

Board age composition

Board gender composition

Board education composition

50.03

0.03

0.05

4.87

0.10

0.13

50.00

0.02

0.01

5.01

0.11

0.07

50.01

0.02

0.03

4.96

0.10

0.10

Powerful CEO

Board size

# decreases in age

# increases in females

# increases in education

7.22

3.74

855

28

46

7.49

1.99

7.04

2.59

0

0

0

7.24

1.70

7.10

3.00

855

28

46

7.33

1.89

Bank characteristics and macroeconomic environment

Total assets (log, deflated)

Charter value

Capital adequacy ratio

GDP growth (per capita)

Merger dummy

Risk measures

RWA/TA

HHI (log)

19.93

17.81

19.90

1.59

0.03

58.00

3.39

1.47

8.11

130.20

3.58

0.16

14.93

0.38

19.09

16.69

12.52

1.68

0.06

60.62

3.24

1.21

6.69

4.31

3.32

0.23

10.92

0.25

19.38

17.08

15.12

1.64

0.05

59.70

3.29

1.36

7.24

77.35

3.41

0.21

12.54

0.31

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Board Composition and Risk Taking

Introduction – Hypotheses – Data and Methodology – Results – Conclusion

16

Average Age:

Share of females:

Share of PhDs:

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Board Composition and Risk Taking

Introduction – Hypotheses – Data and Methodology – Results – Conclusion

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Main Results

Age composition Gender composition Education composition

(1) (2) (3)

Executive board change

Post period

Board change * Post period

Timetrend

Total assets (log, deflated)

Charter value

Capital adequacy ratio

RWA/TA

-0.02

0.13

0.55***

-0.24***

-2.15***

-0.16***

-0.21***

RWA/TA

0.99

0.59***

0.96*

0.79***

-20.97***

-0.17***

-1.49***

RWA/TA

-1.48**

0.23

-2.26***

0.93***

-12.14***

-0.18***

-1.01***

GDP growth (county)

 Data are consistent with hypothesis HI o

0.08***

0.34

0.08***

-0.35

0.02

-0.05

-0.05**

Customer loans/Total assets o

Growth of total assets (deflated)

Board size

0.61***

0.00

o

0.70*** o o

0.37***

0.01

0.41***

0.01

0.04

-0.48

Interest rate spread

Population (log, state)

Average exeuctive board age

Average Ph.D. representation

Average female representation

Observations

R-squared

Number of banks

Number of board changes

-1.05***

68.10***

No

Yes

Yes

6,440

0.452

1,578

569

48.63***

Yes

Yes

No

3,073

0.615

652

24

-24.66*

Yes

No

Yes

1,229

0.358

260

25

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Board Composition and Risk Taking

Introduction – Hypotheses – Data and Methodology – Results – Conclusion

18

Exploring the mechanisms

Panel A: Age composition

Age Range

Number of executive board changes

Panel B: Gender composition

Average job experience (all executives)

Number of executive board changes

Pre board change

11.80

15.33

569

Post board change

11.85

7.70

t-test

-0.25

7.74***

Do women select into particular types of banks?

Capital adequacy ratio prior to board change

Proportion of female executives prior to board change

Proportion of female CEOs prior to board change

Panel C: Education composition (Ph.D.)

Off balance sheet/Total assets

Fee income

Core deposits/Total assets

Number of executive board changes o Finding is not significant. increase in female board representation

Treatment group Control group

14.27

12.80

0.03

0.04

Pre board change

0.02

0.02

Post board change

7.94

7.80

12.65

6.81

9.52

16.88

-3.81***

-0.14

-1.75*

1.26

-2.04**

-3.07***

25 o New female executive board members are less experienced (Ahern and Dittmar, 2012, QJE) – could explain why risk taking increases. o Female executives appointed to boards of banks with significantly higher capital ratio before the change, so may have greater ability to absorb risk.

o Better educated executive board members diversify income streams.

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Board Composition and Risk Taking

Introduction – Hypotheses – Data and Methodology – Results – Conclusion

19

 Robustness tests

 o

Exclusion of all loss-making banks from the estimations

Reason: poorly performing banks may have incentives to restructure executive boards in specific ways to restore profitability (Schaeck et al., 2012, RoF)

Alternative risk measure: Herfindahl Hirschman Index of loan concentration

Reports the degree of concentration in banks’ loan portfolio  indicator of risk exposure

Alternative matching procedures

Adding of capital adequacy ratios as matching criterion

Narrowing of matching band for all criteria: between 90% and 110%

Additional regressions where

Merged banks are omitted

Poorly capitalized banks are omitted

Placebo test

Idea: pretense of a board change at a point in time when it in fact did not occur

Redefinition of Treatment dummy to unity two years prior to the actual executive board change

Main results are robust to alternative specifications.

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Board Composition and Risk Taking

Introduction – Hypotheses – Data and Methodology – Results – Conclusion

20

Conclusion

Socioeconomic characteristics of executive board composition matter for banks’ risk-taking.

Decreases in executive board age and more female representation are associated with more risk taking, and more education is associated with less risk taking.

Female results may in part reflect differences in experience and in initial conditions.

Robustness of empirical results to different specifications

Future work

Better disentangling of age, gender, and education effects

Testing for career concerns and overconfidence

Alternative control groups

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