Future Earth
Steve Dutch
University of
Wisconsin-Green
Bay
Why Look Ahead?
• Usually picture geologic time by looking
back
• New Perspective
• Can you picture the U.S. in 1000 years?
• That’s an instant in geologic time
• Human activities are ephemeral compared
to geologic time
1000 Years
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5-7 M=8 quakes on San Andreas
New Madrid and Cascadia quakes
10 Cascades eruptions
Mississippi delta shift
Niagara Falls retreats 900 meters
Hawaii moves 90 meters
Probable damaging meteor impact
One or more supernovas
Humans in 1000 years
• Probably many cities and nations will still
be extant
10,000 years
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50-70 M=8 quakes on San Andreas
100 Cascades eruptions
10-20 Mississippi delta shifts
Niagara Falls retreats 9 kilometers
Hawaii moves 900 meters
Probable meteor impact with regional
effects
• Hudson’s Bay and Baltic drained
• Dozens of Supernovas
• Earth axis tilt 22-1/2 degrees
Future Niagara Falls
Past and
Future
Niagara
Falls
Humans in 10,000 years
• In 8,000 years we got from proto-IndoEuropean to English, Latin and Russian
• Time enough for new languages to evolve
• Will any word in any language still
survive?
100,000 years
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San Andreas shifted by 2.5 kilometers
1000 Cascades eruptions
100-200 Mississippi delta shifts
Niagara Falls retreated to Lake Erie
Loihi reaches surface?
Numerous meteor impacts with regional
effects probable
• Next ice age?
• New stars may form
The
Future
Gulf
Coast
Stars
Change
Faster
than the
Earth
Humans in 100,000 years
• Time enough to develop our civilization
from Paleolithic technology
• Fewer natural resources but…
• Old human deposits may be better
sources than rocks
1,000,000 years
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San Andreas shifted by 25 kilometers
Large new Cascades volcanoes
1000-2000 Mississippi delta shifts
Ten ice ages?
Loihi and Kilauea as large as present
Mauna Loa
• Several collapses of Hawaiian shields
• Several supervolcano eruptions
• Meteor impact with global effects probable
The Future San Andreas
Bright
Stars in
the next
Million
Years
Humans in 1,000,000 years
• Human race itself may evolve
• If society collapses long enough, different
gene pools may speciate
What Will Endure 1,000,000 years?
• Steel corrodes
• Titanic and Arizona will be gone in 1000
years.
• Most likely to survive: no steel, solid
– Highway and canal cuts
– Earth fill dams
– Open pit mines and mine dumps
– Large monuments (Mount Rushmore,
Pyramids)
What Will They See of Us?
• Pleistocene mass extinction
• Rapid global spread of human artifacts,
reduction of forests, and spread of
domestic animals
• Sixth Extinction?
– Many endangered organisms would never
show up in fossil record
– Caution in comparing present extinctions with
past
– Our choice
Future Earth?
Long-Term Climatic Trends
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Brightening of the Sun
Capturing of CO2 by carbonate rocks?
Moist greenhouse effect
Runaway CO2 Greenhouse Effect
Venus conditions
Planetary Habitable Zones
• Primarily in the Liquid Water Zone
• Can’t be too warm
• Water Vapor in upper atmosphere broken
down by solar UV and charged particles
(photodissociation)
• Hydrogen escapes to space
Planetary Habitable Zones
The Ultimate Long-Term
Forecast
• Slow warming trend for the next billion
years
• Increasing humidity
• CO2 decrease leads to extinction of
plants?
• Boiling and evaporation of the oceans
The Oreo Model of Life History
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Micro-organism Earth (0-3 billion years)
Multicellular Earth (3-5 billion years)
Micro-organism Earth (5-6 billion years)
“The white creamy middle”