Geohazards Supersites
A partnership for the reduction of geological
disasters through fundamental research
CEOS action DI-09-01a_4
GEO task leader:
Falk AMELUNG(1) and Wolfgang LENGERT(2)
(1)University
(2)ESA
of Miami
Geohazards Supersites
Showcase at GEO plenary.
Need data!
Outline:
• What are “Geohazard Supersites””
• Benefits
• Achievements/ Haiti examples
• Challenges
• Expectations from CEOS
What are the Geohazard Supersites?
- GEO initiative to better understand the geophysical
processes causing geohazards (earthquakes and
volcanoes).
- Global partnership of scientists, satellite and in-situ
data providers (multi-sensor InSAR, seismic, GPS,
complete data sets!)
- Data can support national authorities and policy
makers in risk assessment and mitigation strategies.
 disaster mitigation
Which are the Geohazard Supersites?
- Earthquake Supersites:
Tokyo, Los Angeles, Vancouver/Seattle, Istanbul
- Volcano Supersites:
Hawaii, Mt. Etna, Campi Flegreii/Vesuvius
- Event Supersites:
Haiti (Hispaniola),
Chile
Wenchuan
Why is collaboration required?
30 year earthquake probability for Supersites:
- Tokyo: 35% for shaking associated with a M≥7.3 shock,
(1 trillion $ damage, 3000-10000 fatalities)
- Istanbul: 62% for M≥6.7 with ~3000 fatalities
- Southern California: 37% for shaking associated with a
M≥7.5 (smaller for Los Angeles)
- Vancouver/Seattle: 10% for M≥9.0
 ~80% probability for M≥7.0 event with ≥3000 fatalities
in one of the Supersites in the next 30 years
Benefits
For society:
• better science of geohazards
• improve volcano and earthquake monitoring
For satellite operators:
• direct dialogue with users (smarter satellite tasking).
• decade-long multi-satellite data readily available
(digital world heritage for Earth Observation).
• coordination of SAR observation systems
(e.g. L-band for earthquake, X,C-band after earthquake)
 new applications justifying the need for new satellite
resources
 user requirements for advanced observation systems
(combination of satellite and ground)
Governance Structure of Consortium
GEO task leadership
Scientific
Advisory Committee
Chair
Vice
Chair
Steering Group
(Data Provider members)
Space Agencies
(CEOS)
In-situ data
providers
JAXA
CSA
ESA
DLR
…
Point of contact
(1 per Supersite)
Supersite
Office
(Unavco)
Legend:
Election
Day to day business
Research Institutions
(Data User members)
Science
Community
(Geohazard
CoP)
--
Science Objectives
For a given Supersite:
- interseismic deformation  earthquake potential.
- Daily to sub-daily SAR observations:
ALOS:
2 images/44 days
TSX:
2 images/11 days
RSAT-2:
2 images/24 days
CSM:
2 images/4 days
Envisat/ERS 2 images /35 days
Sentinel:
2 images/12 days
more satellites  ultraprecise measurements (1 mm)
 more chances for rapid interferograms
 “virtual constellation” for ground deformation
high-res optical for crustal earthquakes (Spot-5, Pleiades)
Science Objectives: (1) Vancouver/Seattle
• Magnitude 9.0 megathrust quake expected in next 300 years.
• Image surface displacement associated with Episodic Slip and
Tremor (ETS)
Science Objectives: (2) Tokyo
Interseismic deformation  fault slip rates, earthquake potential
1923 Great Kanto earthquake
Envisat, processing by IREA, Naples
30 year earthquake probability: 35% for
shaking associated with a M≥7.3 shock,
(1 trillion $ damage, 3000-10000 fatalities)
M7.9, 140,000 fatalities
RSAT-2 interferogram the day after Tokyo earthquake?
Science Objectives: (3) Wenchuan
InSAR, GPS and seismic  new information on stress relaxation and transfer
Benefits:
• better understand large continental
Shen et al., 2009
earthquakes: first quake after 3000 years:
isolated event?
• promote data sharing in China (GPS,
seismic, SAR).
• capacity building through data access
 multiple PhD thesis.
Science Objectives: (4) Hawaii
•
•
Deformation due to arrival of new magma  forecast activity
Resolve flank deformation  need daily SAR!
SE flank time series
1 Feb 2010 slow-slip event
P. Lundgren, Jet Propulsion Laboratory
TerraSAR-X data from Supersites
Achievements
• Cyberinfrastructure developed:
single entry 'one-stop shop' supporting
simultaneous large-scale data access
• White Paper version 2 (3 splinter sessions geohazards CoP )
• Support from in-situ data provider
• ESA data available for all Supersites (> 10,000 scenes,
natural laboratories initiated: complete ESA data sets for
Japan, Western US)
• DLR data arriving
• Radarsat-2 tasked
• 12 Alos-PalSAR images for Haiti, Chile
• Geological Surveys start using data (USGS, INGV)
• Haiti earthquake: global scientific collaboration
The Haiti example
ALOS-PalSAR data provided
day after image acquisition
Provided critical information
on rupture extend.
• Reassurance to population,
rescue organizations
•U Cornell civil engineers
up’ed seismic safety
standards.
• Haiti meeting organized in
Miami prior to UN donors
Conference (relocation of
Port-au-Prince put to rest)
Next: Hispaniola Supersite
Hispaniola Seismic Hazard
• seismic hazard very high in
Dominican Republic!
• minimal seismic network (2 people)
USGS open file report
Septentrional fault:
• GPS: ~13 mm/yr slip rate
• Last earthquake about 1230 A.D.
(8 m displacement accumulated)
 magnitude 7.5-8 overdue!
•
Next: Hispaniola Supersite
Goal:
to better estimate seismic hazard in
Santiago, Dom. Rep. (2 million people)
Expected signal, 1 cm/yr
How?
Use multi-satellite PSInSAR to resolve strain
accumulation along Septentrional fault.
Space data:
TerraSAR-X, Alos, ERS2, Sentinel-1
need Cosmo-Skymed and
Radarsat-2.
In-situ data:
Coordination with planned
GPS network
Results in 2 years!.
USGS open file report
Challenges
• ALOS data provision (L-band critical for event
Supersites).
• Radarsat-1,2 data provision
• Cosmo-Skymed unclear
 no event Supersites established for Iceland
volcano, New Zealand earthquake (ESA data
available through “Natural Laboratory”)
Expectations from CEOS Plenary
• Review of White Paper by Space Agencies
• Seek positive response to data request
• Smooth data provision through CEOS
(clarification of procedures for CSA, JAXA, ASI)
(ESA, DLR through regular proposals)
• Data provision for Wenchuan, Haiti Supersites
as soon as possible (GEO Plenary showcase).
• Fullfill complete data request in 2011
 need for additional Supersites (Teheran, San
Francisco, Izu-Oshima)
Data request (White Paper Supplement)
As soon as possible
Data request (White Paper Supplement)
1.st semester
2011
2nd semester
2011
Expectations from CEOS Plenary
• Review of White Paper by Space Agencies
• Seek positive response to data request
• Smooth data provision through CEOS
(clarification of procedures for CSA, JAXA, ASI)
(ESA, DLR through regular proposals)
• Data provision for Wenchuan, Haiti Supersites
as soon as possible (GEO Plenary showcase).
• Fullfill complete data request in 2011
 need for additional Supersites (Teheran, San
Francisco, Izu-Oshima)
Thank you!
http://supersites.earthobservations.org
famelung@rsmas.miami.edu