Decision Support for the IT Manager
John H. Saunders, Ph.D.
Agenda
Roles and Decision Processes of the IT
Manager
 Cognitive Limitations and Biases
 Aides/Tools/Techniques for the Decision
Maker
 Exercise in Technology Selection
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But first – a quiz!
Role of the CIO
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Must manage semi-structured and
unstructured problems:
 Mission
 Budget
 Politics
& approvals
 Skills & Training
 Contractors
 Technology
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High Level Project Management
All involve evaluation!
The process of decision-making
Intelligence
 Design,
 Choice
 Implementation

Tools are available
for each stage
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Unaided decision-making is often reduced
to “satisfising”
Source: Herbert Simon
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Cognitive Limits
 Overconfidence
 Perceptual
Limitations
 Framing Limitations
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Decision environment:
 Number
of alternatives is increasing,
 Time pressure is increasing,
 Need for analysis is increasing,
 Remote
access is increasing.
I’m good at making decisions. I know what I’m talking about.
Do managers need support for making
decisions?
Bootstrapping - decision support
Academic perf of grad
students
Life expectancy of
cancer patients
Changes in stock prices
Mental illness using
psych tests
Grades & attitudes in
psych course
Business failures using
financial ratios
Intuitive
.19
-.01
.23
.28
.48
.50
Source: Decision Traps
Bootstrap
.25
.13
.29
.31
.56
.53
Objective
.54
.35
.80
.46
.62
.67
Portals
Managers have IT support

For the intelligence phase of
decision-making:
Digital Dashboards
 e-mail,
 internet
access,
 spreadsheets,
 Executive Information Systems (EIS),
 portals,
 dashboards,
 data mining,
 model management
Visualization
Analysis paralysis/
Information Overload
Better
Decision
More
Info
An Effective Decision Process
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focuses on what is important,
is logical and consistent,
acknowledges subjective & objective
factors,
requires minimal information and analysis,
guides the gathering of relevant information,
is straightforward yet flexible.
Source: Smart Choices
Technologies for decision support

Technique
 Functional

Economic
Analysis
 Cost-benefit analysis
 Project management
 Linear Programming
 Analytic Hierarchy
Process
Purpose(s)
 resource
allocation
 business process
improvement
 capital planning
 save time,$
 semi-structured &
unstructured problems
A Generic Tool - Analytic Hierarchy Process

How?
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Create a Hierarchy of Goals and Objectives
Insert Possible Solutions, Uncertainties, Decision Makers
Evaluate through pairwise or other comparative methods
Synthesize the Results
Perform Sensitivity Analysis
Why? - It provides:
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Qualitative and Quantitative Evaluation
Relative comparisons
A Measure of inconsistency
Implemented in software


Expert Choice, Criterium, others
Many proven uses

shows flexibility
For detail see:http://mdm.gwu.edu/forman/
Where has AHP been used?
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IBM Benchmarking for Baldridge Award
IBM A/S 400 Configuration
Boeing Supercomputer Selection
Digital Outsourcing Vendor Selection
U.S. Army Base Closings
U.S. Navy CVX Platform
Israeli Air Force Fighter Selection
THOUSANDS of other examples
http://www.expertchoice.com/testimonials/
A Challenge

Which PDA should the our College adopt, pick
any 3, e.g.
 Casio
Cassiopeia E-15
 Palm Vx
 Handspring Visor Deluxe
Only strict requirement is that the price should be under $400. For
information on these options go to CNET (URL below) and click on
handhelds http://computers.cnet.com/
An Exercise

Objectives:


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To provide a mechanism for understanding the theoretical concepts behind
individual decision technology
To provide hands-on experience in the evaluation of a similar issue facing many
members of the CIO community
Methodology:
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1) We will first work individually and create a simple model - selecting a car.
2) You will then be divided into a group - each containing 3 members.
3) Your Goal is to: “Select a PDA Tool”
4) You may receive a demonstration of the Next Generation Tools – e.g. a) Jornada
b) Palm c) Handspring
5) Your group should create four criteria necessary to judge selection
6) One person in your group, with the aid of the others should start up & create the
hierarchial model using Expert Choice,
7) As a group you would do the evaluation using the WhatIF feature.
8) If time allows your group will present its results to the class and justify the
rationale for its decision
Summary
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There is a need for improved decision-making,
The environment dictates improved methods.
The information infrastructure is being developed.
Improved decision-making can be an acquired
skill.
Applications
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http://www.expertchoice.com/testimonials/
ERP Software Selection
Steers the Direction for Special Warfare Training
Ford Drives Ahead
AHP Helps San Diego Padres Reach World Series
Streamlines Clinical IS Acquisition
AHP in Environmental Impact Evaluations (EIE)
Decisions in Offshore Development Projects
Measuring and Interpreting Information
Budget Allocation at Woods Hole Fisheries
Selecting Working Fluids - An Engineering Application
Managing National Park Service Resources
Formulating Policies for the Sea of Japan
AHP and CASE
Internal Control Judgments by EDP Auditors
Multicriteria Decision Making with SAS Software
Application of AHP to Quality Management
Budget Allocation
Management in Non-Profit Organizations
Expert Military Judgments
Ranking Architecture Alternatives for the FAA
Using the AHP to Develop and Disseminate Medical
Guidelines
Optimizing Quality Costs Through Expert Choice
Selection of Water-Supply Projects Under Drought
Investment Analysis Application
New Bridge to Environmental Application
Choosing the Lunar Lander Propulsion System
Police Officers Evaluation
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Downsizing Military Facilities
Patient versus Physician Preferences
Selection of Flood Control Projects
Management Reorganization
Productivity in Software Development
How to Get Funds
Marines Step Smartly
Tactical R&D Project Prioritization
Assessing the Risks of an FAA Emergency Communications
Accounting Research using the AHP
Strategic Planning in the Military
Expert Choice and Strategy Implementation
Selecting Teams to Respond in Medical Disasters
Promoting Shared Health Care Decision Making
Developing a Merit Compensation Plan in an Academic Setting
Prioritizing Telecommunications for Long Range R & D Plannin
Easing the Traffic in Istanbul – At What Price?
Deciding Which Navy Master Jet Bases to Close
Customer And Company Values Count in Value-Based Analysis
Banks Place Their Bets on Technology
Fantastico! Says Argentine Congress
Expert Choice software is the choice of B.C. Ferries!
Expert Choice Software Helps Make Green Decisions on Environmen
Inter-American Development Bank Checks Expert Choice Software w
Approval
Expert Choice Software helps PECO make Powerful Decisions
Expert Choice Aids Decision Making to keep Savannah River Site Re