The Demographic Future of
the Great Plains
Richard Rathge
North Dakota State University
Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Rural Sociological
Society, Louisville, KY, Aug. 12, 2006
Research support from USDA North Dakota Rural Development
Center and regional research project W1001.
Study Methods
• Data from State Demographic Units
– 12 states in Great Plains (all 1,009 counties)
– Age cohorts by county-type
• Projections from 2000 to 2020
Percentage Change in Total Population
U.S. Counties: 1990 to 2000
Loss: -42.3% to 0.0%
Gain: 0.1% to 19.4%
Gain: 19.41% to 45.1%
Gain: 45.11% to 191.0%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census
Prepared by: North Dakota State Data Center, April 2001
Nonmetro Farming-Dependent Counties,
1989
Counties with 20 percent or more of income (labor or proprietor) from farming
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Other nonmetro counties
Farming counties
Metro counties
Source: ERS, USDA
Table 1. Population Distribution by State in the Great Plains by County Type: 2000
Population as a Percent of 12-State Total
All Counties
Non-Metropolitan Counties*
Population
Percent of
12-State
Total
Colorado
4,301,261
9.5
10.8
6.2
3.5
6.6
9.5
Iowa
2,926,324
6.4
4.1
12.3
12.5
12.5
10.8
Kansas
2,688,418
5.9
4.7
9.0
13.0
6.8
11.2
Minnesota
4,919,479
10.8
10.7
11.2
6.1
13.3
11.0
Montana
902,195
2.0
0.6
5.3
9.9
3.1
6.3
Nebraska
1,711,263
3.8
2.8
6.2
8.2
4.4
10.7
New Mexico
1,819,046
4.0
3.2
6.0
14.1
3.6
2.0
North Dakota
642,200
1.4
0.9
2.7
1.8
1.8
8.7
3,450,654
7.6
6.5
10.4
10.6
12.0
3.1
754,844
1.7
0.8
3.8
1.1
3.2
11.0
20,851,820
45.9
54.6
24.2
17.1
29.6
14.3
493,782
1.1
0.5
2.7
2.1
3.2
1.4
45,461,286
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
32,429,884
13,031,402
3,305,226
7,875,080
1,851,096
States in the
Great Plains
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Texas
Wyoming
TOTAL
Population
45,461,286
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Metropolitan
Counties
(20K+)
(2.5K-20K)
(lt 2.5K)
Total
Urban
Less Urban
Rural
Table 2. Number of Counties by State in the Great Plains by County Type: 2000
Non-Metropolitan Counties*
Metropolitan
Counties
States in the
Great Plains
Total
Urban
Less Urban
Rural
Total
Counties
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Nu mber
Percent
Colorado
63
10
15.9
53
84.1
1
1.6
24
38.1
28
44.4
Iowa
99
10
10.1
89
89.9
9
9.1
60
60.6
20
20.2
105
9
8.6
96
91.4
10
9.5
40
38.1
46
43.8
Minnesota
87
18
20.7
69
79.3
4
4.6
45
51.7
20
23.0
Montana
56
2
3.6
54
96.4
5
8.9
19
33.9
30
53.6
Nebraska
93
6
6.5
87
93.5
7
7.5
28
30.1
52
55.9
New Mexico
33
6
18.2
27
81.8
7
21.2
13
39.4
7
21.2
North Dakota
53
4
7.5
49
92.5
1
1.9
10
18.9
38
71.7
Oklahoma
77
14
18.2
63
81.8
7
9.1
45
58.4
11
14.3
South Dakota
66
3
4.5
63
95.5
1
1.5
17
25.8
45
68.2
254
58
22.8
196
77.2
12
4.7
127
50.0
57
22.4
23
2
8.7
21
91.3
2
8.7
15
65.2
4
17.4
1,009
142
14.1
867
85.9
66
6.5
443
43.9
358
35.5
Kansas
Texas
Wyoming
TOTAL
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Table 3. Change in Population by State in the Great Plains by County Type: 1990 to 2000
Percent Change in Population
Change in Population for All
Counties
States in the
Great Plains
Colorado
Numeric
Percent
Non-Metropolitan Counties*
Metropolitan
Counties
Total
Urban
Less Urban
Rural
1,006,867
30.6
30.0
33.2
24.8
31.6
44.7
Iowa
149,569
5.4
10.5
1.5
1.7
1.9
-1.0
Kansas
210,844
8.5
14.1
2.0
3.1
2.3
-1.1
Minnesota
544,380
12.4
15.0
6.7
6.8
6.9
6.1
Montana
103,130
12.9
9.7
13.9
21.7
7.6
7.9
Nebraska
132,878
8.4
14.3
2.6
7.2
3.3
-4.3
New Mexico
303,977
20.1
23.0
16.4
13.7
19.4
31.1
North Dakota
3,400
0.5
10.3
-6.1
1.5
-5.0
-9.5
305,069
9.7
12.2
6.0
3.6
7.7
-4.8
58,840
8.5
18.3
3.9
-0.3
7.2
0.7
3,865,310
22.8
24.9
12.0
11.8
12.1
11.8
40,194
8.9
10.2
8.3
0.0
10.6
10.9
6,724,458
17.4
21.5
8.2
8.6
9.0
4.7
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Texas
Wyoming
TOTAL
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Total Counties = 53
North Dakota
Cass County
4 similar
counties
40 similar
counties
McIntosh County
Figure 7. Projected Percent Change in Total Population in the
Great Plains States by County: 2000 to 2020
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000; Individual state agencies providing population projections
A Maturing Age Distribution, 2000
(National data)
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Male
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Female
0
2
4
Population (in millions)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base.
6
8
10
12
14
A Maturing Age Distribution, 2020
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Male
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Female
0
2
4
Population (in millions)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base.
6
8
10
12
14
2000 Census – Rural and Urban Population
Distributions
by Age and Gender for North Dakota
Traditional
Babyboom
X Generation
Y Generation
N.D. Labor Force, by Generation
60%
48%
Traditionalist
(1900-1945)
50%
34%
40%
20%
19%
30%
20%
23%
13%
0%
2000
Source: Census Bureau & North Dakota
State Data Center
Baby Boomer
(1946-1964)
Generation X
(1965-1975)
Generation Y
(1976-1994)
6%
10%
36%
2010
Population Distribution by Age of Earner in North Dakota: 1980-2020
Peaked in 1990
Peaked in 2000
Relatively stable until 2005
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and the North Dakota State Data Center
Figure 1. Projected Percent Change in Persons Ages 0 to 4 in the Great
Plains States by County: 2000 to 2020
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000; Individual state agencies providing population projections
Figure 2. Projected Percent Change in Persons Ages 5 to 19 in the Great
Plains States by County: 2000 to 2020
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000; Individual state agencies providing population projections
Number of Counties by Population Gain or Loss in the Great Plains by Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan
Status Between Census 2000 and 2020 Projections
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Population Projections from Individual State Agencies
Figure 3. Projected Percent Change in Persons Ages 20 to 34 in the Great
Plains States by County: 2000 to 2020
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000; Individual state agencies providing population projections
Figure 4. Projected Percent Change in Persons Ages 35 to 54 in the Great
Plains States by County: 2000 to 2020
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000; Individual state agencies providing population projections
Number of Counties by Population Gain or Loss in the Great Plains by Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan
Status Between Census 2000 and 2020 Projections
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Population Projections from Individual State Agencies
Figure 5. Projected Percent Change in Persons Ages 55 to 64 in the Great
Plains States by County: 2000 to 2020
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000; Individual state agencies providing population projections
Figure 6. Projected Percent Change in Persons Ages 65 and Older
in the Great Plains States by County: 2000 to 2020
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000; Individual state agencies providing population projections
Number of Counties by Population Gain or Loss in the Great Plains by Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan
Status Between Census 2000 and 2020 Projections
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Population Projections from Individual State Agencies
Change in the Total Population and Elderly Population in the Great Plains by Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan
Status: Census 1980 to 2000 and Projections 2010 and 2020
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Population Projections from Individual State Agencies
Policy Implications
• Future viability of many GP areas in doubt
• Need to address labor force issues
– Significant shifts especially in rural areas
• Big issue to address is the elderly boom
– 6.6 million net expansion of those 55+
– ¼ of the total net change in population
• Elderly expansion equally felt urban-rural
Conclusion
• If history is a guide, the future of the Great
Plains depends on its ability to adapt to
technological innovation
• The success of the Great Plains will depend
on its ability to work interdependently
• This demographic analysis documents the
dramatic shift that will occur in age cohorts
which will force a new way of thinking.