The Wrinkling of Rural
Part 5
The Wrinkling of Rural
DO NOT GO GENTLY INTO THAT GOOD NIGHT.
OLD AGE SHOULD BURN AND RAVE AT THE
CLOSE OF DAY;
RAGE, RAGE AGAINST THE DYING OF THE
LIGHT
DYLAN THOMAS
Critical Demographics
Segment from 2015 to 2030
• From 2015 to 2030 we will increase our total
population of children by (Estimated) 7,352,000
[Children are aged 14 and younger]
• If the current scenario holds true, 80 percent of
these children will attend school in 144
metropolitan counties and 181 amenity “hot
growth” counties in rural areas.
• During the same period the population of
persons aged 65+ will increase 26,200,000
persons
• You do the math
Rapidly Aging/Fast
Growing
5
4
6
3
2
1
USA
TODAY
4/21/05
5
2
1
4
3
Rapidly Aging
Fastest Growing
The Old In Modern Human
History
Until the turn of the 19th into the 20th Century, the
world population maintained a constant relationship between
age segments
Most ecologist and demographers agree that the most
significant change to the planet in the 20th Century is
the aging of the human species.
From the beginning of the modern era until 1900 the
total proportion of those over 65 to those under that
age remained a constant 5% percent. During the 21st
Century – we are headed for the 35% level.
Percent of the Total Population
Aged 65 and Over - 2003
And 50 Years in the
Future
Proportion of Total
Population Aged 65 years
& older
Less developed nations
More developed nations
United Nations Population Bulletin, 2003
Take Home Points
• In 1960 there were 16 workers for every person
on social security in the U.S.
• By 2045 there will be 3 workers for every person
on social security (under contemporary
scenario)
• By 2050 the world should hit the 34 percent mark
for persons 65 and over
• By 2999 we should reach a stable point at 38
percent of the world
Incomes
Decline
Age Structure
Entitlement
Birth Rates
Retirement
Pensions
KEY ISSUES
Health Care – Elderly - Incomes
An Aging World
About 795,000 persons in the world
cross the line from middle age to
elderly each month.
The number of elderly in the U.S.
increased 12 fold from 1900 – 2000 or 3
million to 42 million. By 2030 about 70
million of our population will be old
Quick Facts
• Over the next 70 years the world will
undergo the greatest demographic
change in all its history
• In 2050 in the U.S. there will be 27.1 million
children age 5 and under & 78.8 million
aged 65 and over
• By 2070 there will be 106 million elderly
persons in the United States out of our
projected 490 million persons
Even Quicker Facts
• In 2030 seniors will out number school
aged children in 10 states – currently no
state has more seniors than children
• By 2030 approx. 26 states will double their
population of elderly
• Thirty two percent of the residents in 6
states will be elderly – we want service,
not no stinking schools – and we vote
early and often
The Real Story
The real story of rural areas
is the elderly. In U.S. deep
rural communities under
5,000 – one in three persons
will be aged 65+ by 2030.
Local Impact
By 2030 the elderly share of the
population will rise to 32 percent of
the population of U.S.’ Deep Rural
areas.
In terms of the total package, we
calculate that 40 percent of all
public expenditures on the local
level will be directed towards elderly
support, medical services, and
transfer payments. Currently it is 22
percent
Presentation Of The Check For
The Public Share For Elderly
Health Care
• Assisted Care
Costs
•
•
•
•
1987 - 11 billion
1996 – 70 billion
2002 – 400 billion
2015 – 1.2 trillion
• All Health Care
• 2003 – 1.67 trillion
• 2015 – 2.1 trillion
2005 Health Cost – 17.1 % GNP
Why The Great Increase in
Health Care Costs?
• The last two years of life are the most
medically intense for the average
American
• The last two years of treatment are
not for life extension, but for quality
of life & maintenance
• This type of treatment tends to be
the most expensive
The Victims
• Elderly support – if it continues at the
same level it will devastate the
following budgets:
• Education and education infrastructure
• Local infrastructure
• Local and some state based transfer
payments for retirement
• Local arts, parks, recreation and
workforce development
• Medicare, Social Security & Trust Fund
Most Vulnerable of the
Victims
U.S. Counties that
could have 30% of
their population
elderly
Menu of Pain
• The current deferred generational red ink
equals $4.5 trillion – pick an option
•
•
•
•
Increase federal income taxes (69% change)
Increase payroll taxes (95% change)
Decrease discretional federal spending (96%)
Decrease Social Security and Medicare
Benefits
• Let the SS fund deplete in 2032 and pay-asyou-go
• Cut education spending
Gokhale & Smetters, 2003
Opportunities?
In 2030 about 33 percent
of all persons aged 70 and
over require some form of
skilled or assistant term
care
About 4.3 million units of new long term care
housing must be supplied at an average cost of
$7,570 per month (2015 dollars) for assisted care.
Even more important, we must recruit 740,000
assisted care and health workers to support this
elderly population
Enter the Baby Boomers
If You Don’t Recognize One of
These Pictures – You Are Not
Baby Boomer
Baby Boomers Were Born Between 1946 & 1964
In the U.S. Today, Someone Hits Age 50 Every 7
Seconds
The Age Bulge from 1960 to
2020
1960
2000
U.S. Census Bureau
Segments Of the Baby
Boomers
Independent, will
work part time until
they die
25%
Do not plan
to work at all
after retirement
9%
Totally
Dependent on
Soc. Sec. and
Medicare
23%
13%
30%
Strugglers
Enthusiasts
Anxious
Traditionalist
Will get by no matter
what. Will work part
time if need.
Self Reliants
During the Baby Boom Cycle – 30 million people will be totally dependent
on Transfer payments – Think in terms of 2.4 trillion dollars
Our Oldest Old – Percent of
Population Aged 75+
United Nations
2000 - 2001
Will It Continue?
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Expected life term survival rates from 1970 - 2030
Yes, Survival Rates Will
Continue to Increase at a
Slow Rate
United Nations
2000 - 2001
Projected Population
Structure For the U.S. 2050
80+
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-09
0-04
Female
Male
16 14 12 10
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
And, Poor Canada
Female
Male
80+
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-09
0-04
1.6 1.4 1.2
1
0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2
0
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
1
1.2 1.4 1.6
Quick Facts
• In 2025 Europe there will be 2.8
elderly persons per child
• Europe as a whole will shrink by 142
million persons (pop. of France &
Italy)
• Japan and New Zealand will be the
oldest countries in the world – 15
percent will be over 80
The Overall Impact
• The long gray wave of Baby Boomers
retiring could lead to an all-engulfing
economic crisis -- unless we balance the
budget, rein in senior entitlements, raise
retirement ages, and boost individual and
pension savings. Yet politicians of both
parties say that most of the urgently
necessary reforms are "off the table."
Richard Lewis
Mobility Issues – Results of
Cross National Studies
• One of the few cross-national studies
of elderly migration (Rogers, 1998)
identified two basic patterns.
• One is characterized by amenity or
health motivated, long-distance
relocation
• The other by intra-community,
assistance-motivated short-distance
moves.
• This is important because --- next slide
Elderly & Retirement
Issues
• Elderly services and retooling
infrastructure will be a premier
opportunity for rural areas
• Requires a complete re-thinking of
local development policies
• Perhaps as many as 20 percent of
small towns could qualify as
retirement destinations
Births & Marriage
Birth Rates
• Data for 2001 birth rates are the lowest
ever recorded since records began –
total of 4,019,480
• One-third of all live births are to
unmarried women, but teen
pregnancies are finally declining
• The big decline in births began in 1991
The Fertility Rate – Number
of Live Births Per 1,000
Women
• We peaked in 1957 when the US
produced a baby every 7 seconds – a
rate of 3.68 per 1000. We freaked about
rampant growth
• In 1970 it was 2.48 births per 1,000 and
bottomed at 1.74 in 1976
• The baby bust of the 70s was followed by
the birth dearth of the 80s
• In 2004 we returned to 2.2 – this is
sustainable
th
20
1910
Century Birth Rates
2000
But, Survival Rates
The Number of Infant Deaths Between 0 – 5 years of age per one
thousand births
Median Age of U.S. NonImmigrants at First Marriage
Waiting for Mr. Perfect
Some Other Factors
• We consistently win the divorce Tour de France
each year
• The best fertility years for males are age 20 – 24;
the median age at first marriage for males in 26.8
• Purposely childless couples have tripled in the
last 20 years
• Women in the work place
• Globalized attitudes towards wealth and
consumption – no fun with excess children
Good Advice
“ALWAYS BE NICE TO YOUR CHILDREN
BECAUSE THEY ARE THE ONES THAT
WILL CHOOSE YOUR REST HOME”
Phyllis Diller
The Future For Our
Children
• Big, Blue and Wrinkled All Over
• How Old? How Wrinkled? – VERY
• The world tipping point between elderly 65+ and
children 0 – 18 will be reached in 2035-2045
• This will is not a a simple trend – it will be forever
under the current scenario with a rising life
expectancy and low birth rates
• China will go to into decline within 45 years and be
profoundly unbalanced towards males
The Opportunities of Growing
Older
"Global demographic change is
occurring at a rate never seen
before and we will need to pay
close attention to how our
towns respond to the
challenges and opportunities
of growing older.”
Dark days are upon me, my husband is dead,
I look at the future, I shudder with dread,
For my young are all rearing young of their own,
And I think of the years and the love that I've known;
I'm an old woman now and nature is cruel -'Tis her jest to make old age look like a fool.