The Carolina Covenant®
Promise & Platform for Student Success
Presented to:
Projects Promoting Equity in Urban and Higher Education
The Center for Educational Outreach
The National Center for Institutional Diversity
The University of Michigan
March 19, 2010
Shirley A. Ort
Associate Provost and Director of Scholarships & Student Aid
The Covenant in Context
Population Shifts in North Carolina
 North Carolina has one of the nation’s fastest-growing
populations
 From about 9.3 million today, population projected to reach
12.2 million by 2030, making N.C. the 7th most populous state
 Much of the growth will occur among less affluent
populations.
 North Carolina currently ranks 11th (ties with Georgia)
among all states in the percentage of its population living
below the federal poverty level (14.3%).
Source: Mabe, Alan. (September 2005). The Demographic, Economic, and educational Context for the University of North
Carolina: 2006-2011 Long Range Plan. The University of North Carolina General Administration. Retrieved March 12, 2010.
http://intranet.northcarolina.edu/docs/aa/planning/longplan/LRP_2004-2009_Supl_Trends_Affecting_NC_Higher_Ed_(III).pdf
The Covenant in Context
Demographic Shifts in North Carolina
North Carolina population growth
by race, ethnicity, and nativity
1990-2005
Source: Johnson, James. (September 2005). North Carolina’s Higher Education Demographic Challengers. Kenan-Flagler
Business School, UNC-Chapel Hill. Retrieved March 12, 2010.
http://www.northcarolina.edu/nctomorrow/Johnson_-_Demographics_Brief-Final1.pdf
The Carolina Covenant . . .
. . . Our promise to current & future students
 Carolina is – and will remain – accessible and
affordable for academically prepared students
from low-income backgrounds
 Created in 2003, implemented in Fall 2004, it will
endure – a promise to future generations.
 Nearly 2,300 Covenant Scholars have benefited
since the start of the program in Fall 2004 (1,800
currently enrolled)
How the Covenant Works
 “Need blind” admission to the University
 Covenant Scholars named based upon program eligibility and
low-income status (200% federal poverty level or below)
 Median family income of Covenant Scholars: $26,026
 Scholars’ financial “packages” composed of grants,
scholarships, and a Work Study job (i.e., “no loans”) for up to
9 semesters
 Research demonstrates that large grants, when combined with
a part-time job and limited borrowing, positively influence
the academic success of low-income students (Jacqueline
King, Crucial Choices, 2003)
Characteristics of Covenant Scholars*
Fall
2004
Fall
2005
Fall
2006
Fall
2007
Fall
2008
Fall
2009
Number of New Covenant Scholars
224
350
417
398
410
537
Average High School GPA
4.21
4.25
4.19
4.26
4.30
4.31
Average SAT Scores
1209
1223
1198
1202
1206
1230
State of Origin: North Carolina
87%
89%
84%
87%
84%
84%
68
74
72
77
74
78
Female
69%
63%
61%
63%
60%
61%
Male
31%
37%
39%
37%
40%
39%
Students of Color
63%
60%
63%
61%
61%
62%
First Generation
55%
52%
57%
53%
55%
57%
North Carolina Counties Represented
Gender
[*] The income threshold for consideration for the Carolina Covenant was initially established at
150% of federal poverty guidelines. Starting in fall 2005, it was increased to encompass students
with parents’ adjusted gross income up to 200% of the federal poverty standard.
Changes in Covenant Population
Broadened Eligibility
 Initial 2004 cohort (N=224): All were first-year students
with family incomes under 150% of poverty level
 Additions to 2005 – 2009 Cohorts:
– Family income 151- 200% of poverty level
• Additional 100 scholars per year; jumped to 139 in 2009
– Transfer students
• Started with 26 in 2005; grown to 92 in 2009
• Close to 20% of total cohort
Profile of Covenant Scholars, Fall 2009
Number of New
Covenant Scholars
N = 537
83% First-Year
17% Transfer
First-Year Covenant Scholars are similar to their peers in terms of
residency, gender, and high school GPA. But they differ in other ways.
Covenant
(11%)
Other Needy
(27%)
No Need
(62%)
Average SAT Scores
1230
1284
1324
Students of Color
62%
40%
28%
First Generation
57%
24%
8%
$26,026
$53,199
$100,000+
Median parental income
Support for Covenant Scholars
“More than money”
 Financial Aid
 University Embrace
 Programming and Mentoring
Financial Aid to Scholars, 2009-10
Financial Aid by Type
Grants
$32,974,390
Loans*
$1,747,656
Work Study
$689,752
*Loans taken at Scholar’s own initiative
Financial Aid by Source
Federal
$10,768,162
State
$10,132,694
Institutional / Private
$14,510,942
Total Aid
|
$35,411,798
Programming and Mentoring
 Orientation (for Scholars and parents)
 Faculty/staff and peer mentors
 Special programming and opportunities
 Learning skills workshops (time management, note taking,
studying for math, writing skills, preparing for exams, etc.)
 Business etiquette, dining skills, public speaking
 Pre-med seminars
 Financial literacy
 Tickets to performing arts events
 Receptions and celebration events
 Academic tracking, “interventions” & learning contracts
Community Embrace
 Comprehensive infrastructure of support services and special
programming
 Some of our many Covenant Partners
 Faculty and Administration – Mentoring and financial support
 Admissions and University Relations – Outreach and promotion
 College of Arts and Sciences – Advising and Academic Services
 Diversity and Multicultural Affairs – Outreach programs
 Student Affairs – Orientation, Career Services, Counseling
 Carolina Performing Arts – Vouchers for artistic events
 Development Office – Fundraising (currently $11 million)
 Institutional Research – Data and program evaluation
 The Medical School – Seminars and mentoring
 The Coach!
Assessing Covenant Scholar Progress
 Approach to evaluating the success of Covenant
Scholars is based upon prior research findings:
• National Studies: Students from low-income families do not
persist or graduate at the same rates as their classmates
(Edward St. John, 2008; Cliff Adelman, 2007).
• Carolina’s 2004 Retention Study: Socio-economic factors
(family income, parent education, etc.) were significant
predictors of retention and graduation, even after controlling
for entering academic preparation.
 Goal: To determine if the Covenant award helps
close the gap in degree attainment between lowincome students and other students.
Indicators of Student Success

Academic Achievement

Retention Rates

Graduation Rates
Evaluation Design
2003
Control Group
2004
Cohort
N = 3,511
N = 3,589
Covenant-Eligible (224)
Covenant Recipients (224)
Other Needy (967)
Other Needy (1,035)
No Need (2,320)
No Need (2,331)
 Compared the success of first cohort of Covenant Scholars in 2004 to
that of a matched group of students from the 2003 entering class
who would have been eligible for the Covenant, had it existed.
 Also compared performance of Covenant Scholars to their
classmates with less need and those with no need.
2004 Cohort Group Comparisons*
Covenant Other Needy
No Need
Number
224
1,035
2,330
Mean High School GPA
4.21
4.26
4.31
Mean SAT
1209
1257
1307
In-State Resident
87%
80%
82%
Gender:
Female
69%
61%
56%
Male
31%
39%
44%
Students of Color
63%
38%
18%
First Generation
55%
25%
6%
[*] The income threshold for consideration for the Carolina Covenant was initially established at
150% of federal poverty guidelines. Starting in fall 2005, it was increased to encompass students
with parents’ adjusted gross income up to 200% of the federal poverty standard.
Academic Achievement
 Grade Point Average:
– Average GPA for 2004 Covenant Scholars at
graduation was within 2/10ths of a point of the
average for all students.
 Academic Eligibility:
– Number of 2004 Covenant Scholars who became
academically ineligible was considerably lower (17%)
than the 2003 Control Group .
Retention Rate Comparisons
Enrolled in Year 4
Group
2003 Control Group
2004 Cohort
Percentage Point
Improvement
Covenant
84.3%
89.6%
5.3%
Other Needy
87.6%
88.2%
0.6%
No Need
90.5%
91.6%
1.1%
All Students
89.3%
90.5%
1.2%
 By year four, the entering class of 2004 Covenant Scholars had
persisted at a considerably higher rate than the Covenant
students in the 2003 Control Group.
 The 2004 Covenant Scholars closed much of the persistence gap
observed between the low income group and others in the 2003
Control Group.
Year 4 percentage adjusted for 3-year graduates.
Retention Rates By Need Status and Year in School
Improvement in Percentage Retained: 2004 Cohort vs. 2003 Control Group
Covenant
Other Needy
No Need
Total
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
Total
No Need
Other Needy
Covenant
Year 2
0.8%
0.7%
1.1%
0.9%
Year 3
1.5%
1.2%
1.7%
5.3%
Year 4
1.2%
1.1%
0.6%
5.3%
6.0%
Year 4 percentage adjusted for 3-year graduates.
Graduation Rates
General Trends
 Increases in Carolina’s overall graduation rates
within 8 and 9 semesters have been greatest among
financially needy students.
 While their graduation rates are still somewhat
below those of non-needy students, the gap has been
reduced considerably.
 Carolina Covenant Scholars improved more than
did any other group.
Graduation Rates
Among Comparison Groups
Graduated within 8 Semesters
Group
2003 Control Group
2004 Cohort
Percentage Point
Improvement
Covenant
56.7%
61.9%
5.2%
Other Needy
71.8%
71.2%
-0.6%
No Need
77.0%
78.9%
1.9%
All Students
74.3%
75.6%
1.3%
Graduated within 9 Semesters
Group
2003 Control Group
2004 Cohort
Percentage Point
Improvement
Covenant
69.6%
72.7%
3.1%
Other Needy
78.3%
77.4%
-0.9%
No Need
83.9%
84.7%
0.8%
All Students
81.5%
81.9%
0.4%
Graduation Rates
Improvement in Percentage Graduated:
2004 Cohort vs. 2003 Control Group
Covenant
Other Needy
No Need
Total
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
Total
No Need
Other Needy
Covenant
8th S emester
1.3%
1.9%
-0.6%
5.2%
9th S emester
0.4%
0.8%
-0.9%
3.0%
6.0%
Graduation Rates
as of Late 2009
Graduated
Cohort
N
Within 6
Yrs
Within 4 Yrs Within 5 Yrs
N
%
N
%
N
2003*
224
127
56.7%
170 75.9%
2004
222
138
62.2%
171 77.0% .
2005
326
214
65.6% .
* Control group
173
.
%
77.2%
Graduation Rates
2005 Covenant Cohort

Greatest gains were seen among men.

Note in particular the significant gains
among both Black and Caucasian men.

Women remained relatively stable, generally
performing somewhat higher than men.
Covenant Scholars: Comparing 2003 and 2005 Cohorts
Graduated Within 8 Semesters
White
Females
2003 (Control)
71.9%
-4.8%
67.1%
2005
39.1%
2003 (Control)
White Males
+33.3%
2005
72.4%
56.1%
2003 (Control)
Black Females
+11.8%
67.9%
2005
2003 (Control)
33.3%
Black Males
20.0%
+19.8%
53.1%
2005
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Covenant Scholars: Comparing 2003 and 2005 Cohorts
Graduated Within 9 Semesters
75.0%
2003 (Control)
-0.7%
White Females
2005
74.3%
2003 (Control)
60.9%
+18.4%
White Males
2005
79.3%
2003 (Control)
73.7%
-1.9%
Black Females
2005
71.8%
2003 (Control)
Black Males
44.4%
+21.2%
2005
20.0%
65.6%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Conclusion & Discussion
Pinpointing the Covenant’s Impact

Preliminary indications point toward significant
improvement in the academic success of Carolina
Covenant Scholars.

Financial support clearly matters, but the impact goes
beyond money.

Which support programs have the greatest effect?

What accounts for the sizable increase in graduation rates
among men?
Summer School Contract Initiative
 Developed in response to observations that academically
ineligible Covenant students receiving grants to attend
summer school to regain good standing had a lower
“cure” rate than predicted.
 Summers of 2008 and 2009: Changed policy; ineligible
Covenant Scholars attending summer school were given
loans that could be converted to grants if they signed a
learning contract and fulfilled its conditions.
 Analysis conducted by RTI compared success rates to
2006 and 2007 summer school attendees
Outcomes By Contract Status
88.6%
77.8%
58.8%
52.4%
Summer school 2008
Signed contract
Summer school 2009
Did not sign contract
Restored Academic Eligibility Rates
Among students coded as academic ineligibility-pending who attended
summer school, by signed contract status and Carolina Covenant status:
UNC summer school 2006 through 2009
100
*88.6%
90
†82.9%
80
†74.2%
81%
*77.8%
76.4%
75.8%
70
61.5%
60
50
2006
Covenant Scholars
† Pre-contract
* Signed contract
2007
Non-Covenant Scholars
2008
2009