KOMITE EKONOMI NASIONAL
REPUBLIK INDONESIA
Indonesia - The World’s Next
Economic Power
Chairul Tanjung
Chairman of National Economic Committee (KEN)
 Indonesia Future Outlook
 Key Economic Drivers
page 1
Looking to the long term, Indonesia will become a high income country
PREPARATION
ACCELERATION
CONTINUATION
Indonesia becomes a high
income country with GDP per
capita USD 14,250-USD 15,500
$46,900
$38,600
$30,400
$22,500
GDP Nominal per capita
$14,900
$3,005
$5,300
2010
2015
$9,000
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
GDP Nominal (US$ Billion)
711
1,335
2,416
4,257
6,793
9,706
12,989
16,578
Population (Million people)
237
253
269
286
302
319
336
353
page 2
Indonesia’s economic growth has far surpassed the projections of the
Indonesia Forum Foundation
Projected GDP per capita - Indonesia Vision 2030
1992
2015
Lower Middle
Income Country
25,000
2023
Upper Middle
Income Country
High
Income Country
22,500
Economic
Projection
2011 - 2045
20,000
18,000
15,000
Indonesia Vision
2030
14,900
GDP per capita
reached US$3,005
in 2010
12,449
9,000
10,000
5,300
5,000
7,231
3,005
1,660
2,359
3,923
0
1990
1995
2000
2006
2010
2015
Source: Indonesia Forum Foundation (Yayasan Indonesia Forum), team analysis
2020
2025
2030
page 3
IMF projects Indonesia to achieve the second fastest growth amongst the
world’s 18 largest economies during 2009-2015
GPD Nominal Growth (2009 – 2015)
Russia
15.7%
Indonesia
14.5%
China
12.4%
India
12.1%
Brazil
11.7%
South Korea
10.0%
Turkey
9.9%
USA
4.1%
Japan
4.0%
ASEAN (excl. Indonesia)
9.6%
Source : International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2011
page 4
Indonesia’s economy will become more dominant in ASEAN and larger than
several countries in Europe
Indonesia Economic Growth (nominal)
(USD Billion)
CAGR 14.5%
Indonesia’s economy as % of
ASEAN-6
ASEAN
(Total 11
Countries)
40%
48%
53%
38%
46%
52%
European Countries:
Spain
50%
60%
91%
Netherlands
91%
105%
165%
Source:International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2011; Proyeksi Ekonomi Indonesia 2011 – 2045; Analisa Tim
page 5
 Indonesia Future Outlook
 Key Economic Drivers
page 6
The increase of the productive population will fuel stable and rapid
economic growth
Expected Population Pyramid (2000–2020)
Male
15
12
9
6
Population (in millions)
Indonesia–2000
100
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
55
00
3
0
0
Female
3
6
9
12
15
Male
Indonesia–2020
100
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
55
00
15
12
9
6
Population (in millions)
Total (million)
205
254
Male (million)
102
127
Female (million)
102
127
99 (48%)
132 (52%)
Productive population
(20–55 years old)
3
0
0
Female
3
6
9
12
15
Source: 2008 UNDP World Population Prospects
page 7
Natural Resources, Infrastructure and Consumers will also drive economic
growth
Natural
Resources
 Economic growth, including key emerging
markets driving demand
– Hard commodities, e.g. metals, oil, coal, etc.
– Soft commodities, e.g. rubber, palm oil, etc.
Infrastructure
 Continued development of infrastructure:
transportation, energy, communications, water &
waste, etc.
• Consumer
Rise of
Consumer
Spending
Power
 Based on 2010 GDP per capita
(US$3,005), Indonesia has reached the
critical threshold  rapid growth in
consumption, discretionary and luxury
spending
o
o
o
o
o
Financial Services
Automotive
Retail
Tourism
etc.
(as well as supporting
sectors such as industry and
construction)
page 8
This economic growth is also supported by conducive national conditions
Maturing democracy
Regional autonomy
Supportive regulations  balanced open markets
Strengthening institutions
Political
Environment




Increasingly
integrated
networks
 Regional – improving efficiency of domestic production and
distribution chains
 Global – geographic position provides excellent access to India,
China, Japan, etc.
Resilient
Financial
System
 Government debt and foreign reserves at healthy levels
 Improving investment climate
 Indonesian banks performed well during global crisis
page 9
Indonesia has entered the Golden Era of economic growth  huge
opportunities for businesses
Projection of Indonesia’s GDP Growth in 2025
(USD Billion)
4,257
3,546
711
711
2010
2025
 Indonesian economy will grow 5-fold through 2025
 The stable government combined with strong economic growth will provide great
opportunities for all businesses
 Currently China already has 115 people in Fortune's list of World Billionaires, while
Indonesia has only 14 people. By 2025, the number of Indonesian billionaires could
surpass 115
Source: Masterplan Percepatan dan Perluasan Pembangunan Indonesia
page 10
Closing
 Indonesia’s is expected to continues its strong performance
 This robust growth is driven by favorable demographics, strong natural
resources and consumer sectors and developing infrastructure, as well
as broad based geographic growth
 Indonesia is moving forward to address challenges in funding,
infrastructure, bureaucracy, human resources, and technology
 Indonesia’s economy is projected to grow 5-fold by 2025, thereby
making Indonesia the world’s next economic power
page 11
Thank You
Chairul Tanjung
Chairman of National Economic Committee (KEN)