An Overview of Finance Chapter 1 Career Opportunities in Finance Financial markets Investments Managerial finance Career Opportunities in Financial Markets Financial institutions Banks Insurance companies Savings and loans Credit unions Career Opportunities in Investments Stock brokerage firms Career Opportunities in Investments Banks Career Opportunities in Investments Investment companies Career Opportunities in Investments Insurance companies Career Opportunities in Managerial Finance All types of businesses Skills used in other fields besides finance History of Financial Markets Early 1900s - banks were full service financial organizations Crisis of 1907 Bank failures during 1920s Great depression 1929 - 1933 Legislative reform Deregulation since 1970s History of Investments Early 1900s investments dominated by small group of wealthy investors Industrialization during WWI Growth of investment firms by 1920s Stock market crash 1929 – 1932; market value decreased > 80% History of Investments Regulations of securities Prosperity after WWII Inflation and high interest in 1970s Increase in individual and institutional investors History of Managerial Finance Emergence as a separate field of study Early 1900s Emphasis on mergers and capitalization Wave of mergers during 1920s Bankruptcies in 1930s History of Managerial Finance Liquidity stressed during 1940s & ‘50s Analysis and maximizing value in late 1950s and the 1960s Innovative risk management in 1970s History of Managerial Finance Focus on valuation continued in 1980s, analysis expanded to include: Inflation and effects on business decisions Deregulation of financial institutions Increase in computer analysis and electronic information transfer Increased importance of global markets Innovative financial products History of Managerial Finance 1990s have seen evolution continue Continued globalization of business Further increase in use of technology Regulatory attitude of government Importance of Managerial Finance Financial managers no longer merely fund the business needs Financial managers coordinate decisions People in marketing, accounting, production, and personnel need to understand finance to do their job well The Financial Manager’s Responsibilities Obtain and use funds in a way that will maximize the value of the firm Forecasting and planning Major investment and financing decisions Coordination and control Dealing with financial markets Financial Assets (Instruments) Chapter 2 Assets Tangible asset a physically observable, or touchable, item Assets Financial asset an asset that represents a promise to distribute cash flows some time in the future Promissory Note Major Financial Instruments Treasury bills Repurchase agreements Federal funds Bankers’ acceptances Commercial paper Negotiable CDs Eurodollars Money market funds Treasury notes/bonds Municipal bonds Term loans Mortgages Corporate bonds Preferred stock Common stock Financial Instruments and the Firm’s Balance Sheet Firm issues financial instruments so it can purchase the tangible assets necessary to produce income Balance Sheet - Equity Common equity stockholder’s total investment in the firm Par value nominal or face value of a stock or bond Retained earnings earnings the firm has not paid out as dividends throughout its history Additional paid-in capital difference between the value of newly issued stock and its par value Debt A loan to an individual, company, or government Debt features Principal value Face value Maturity value Par value More Debt Features Interest payments or discounted securities Maturity date Priority to assets and earnings Control of the firm (voting rights) Short-Term Debt Treasury Bills (T-bills) Repurchase Agreement (Repo) Federal Funds Banker’s Acceptance Commercial Paper Certificate of Deposit Eurodollar Deposit Money Market Mutual Funds Long-Term Debt Term Loans Bonds Government bonds Treasury bonds Municipal bonds – Revenue bonds – General obligation bonds Corporate bonds Mortgage bonds Bonds Debenture Subordinated debenture Income bond Putable bond Indexed (purchasing power) bond Floating rate bond Zero coupon bond Junk bond Bond Contract Features Bond Indenture Trustee Restrictive covenant Call provision Sinking fund call for redemption by annual lottery buy bonds on the open market Convertible Bond Ratings Moody’s Investors Service (Moody’s) Standard & Poor’s Corporation (S&P) Investment grade bonds triple B or better Criteria for rating bonds Importance of bond ratings Changes in ratings Stock (Equity) Preferred stock has preference over common stock in distribution of dividends and assets; dividend payments are fixed Preferred stock may provide for cumulative dividends, conversion into common stock, voting rights, dividend participation, sinking funds, call provisions, and even maturity Stock (Equity) Common stock represents ownership in a corporation common stockholders vote for members of the board of directors has last claim on distribution of earnings and assets may have preemptive rights to purchase any additional shares sold by the firm Stock (Equity) Classified stock special purpose stock Closely held corporations Publicly owned corporations Derivatives Value depends on some underlying asset such as a stock or bond Option - contract that gives the right to buy or sell an asset at a set price within a specified period of time Call: holder has the right to buy Put: holder has the right to sell Striking price: exercise price of the option Derivatives Covertibles - bonds or preferred stocks that can be exchanged for common stock at the option of the holder Conversion ratio defines the number of shares of stock the convertible holder receives upon conversion Futures - arrangement for delivery of an item at a set future date at a set price Derivatives Swaps - an agreement to exchange cash flows or assets at a set time in the future Rationale for Using Different Types of Securities Differences in trade-off between risk and expected after tax return Appeal to broad market and different investment needs Differences in popularity through time Which Financial Instrument is Best? Issuer’s or investor’s viewpoint ? Bonds fixed interest payments does not represent ownership may have restrictions on dividends interest expense is deductible Which Financial Instrument is Best? Preferred stock fixed payment - but not obligated no voting rights higher after-tax cost since dividends are not deductible expenses Which Financial Instrument is Best? Common Stock no obligation of dividend payments no maturity date for “repayment” sales increases creditworthiness prospects affect terms gives control to stockholders shares the income of the firm higher costs of distribution than debt dividends are not deductible Financial Instruments in International Markets American Depository Receipts (ADRs) represent ownership in stocks of foreign countries that are held in trust by a bank located in the country the stock is traded Foreign debt sold by a foreign borrower but denominated in the currency of the country in which it is sold Financial Instruments in International Markets Eurodebt debt sold in a country other than the one in whose currency the debt is denominated Eurobonds Eurocredits: usually tied to London InterBank Offer Rate (LIBOR) Euro-commercial paper (Euro-CP) Euronotes Financial Instruments in International Markets Equity instruments Euro stock is traded in countries other than the “home” country of the company, not including the United States Yankee stock is stock issued for foreign companies that is traded in the United States Financial Markets and the Investment Banking Process Chapter 3 Financial Markets A system comprised of individuals and institutions, instruments, and procedures that bring together borrowers and savers. Flow of Funds Provides the ability to transfer income through time Borrowing sacrifices future income to increase current income. Saving, or investing, sacrifices current income in exchange for greater expected income in the future. Flow of Funds 1. Direct Transfer business sells its stock directly to investors Flow of Funds 2. Indirect Transfer through Investment Bankers investment banker acts as middleman and facilitates issuance of securities by reselling the securities to savers Flow of Funds 3. Indirect Transfer through financial intermediary bank or mutual fund obtains funds from savers and uses the money to lend or purchase securities Market Efficiency Economic Efficiency Funds are allocated to their optimal use at the lowest cost Transactions costs associated with buying and selling Market Efficiency Information Efficiency Prices of investments reflect existing information and adjust quickly when new information enters the market Three categories Informational Efficiency 1. Weak-form efficiency all information contained in past price movements is fully reflected in current market prices information about recent or past price trends is of no use when searching for abnormal returns Informational Efficiency 2. Semistrong-form efficiency current market prices reflect all publicly available information financial analysis is of no use for finding mispriced securities insiders can profit on their own company’s stock Informational Efficiency 3. Strong-form efficiency current market prices reflect all pertinent information, whether publicly available or privately held even insiders cannot earn abnormal returns Types of Financial Markets Money Markets instruments traded mature in one year or less Capital Markets includes instruments with maturities greater than one year Types of Financial Markets Debt Markets treasury, corporate, mortgage-backed, money market, municipal, etc... Equity Markets stock markets Equity Markets Primary corporations raise funds by issuing new securities Secondary securities are traded among investors after they have been issued Derivatives Markets Options, futures and swaps are securities whose value is determined, or derived directly from other assets These can be used to manage risk or to speculate Types of Stock Market Transactions 1. Secondary market trading existing stocks 2. Primary market existing firm issues additional shares 3. Initial Public Offering (IPO) privately held company offers stock to the public for the first time called “going public” The Stock Exchanges Organized security exchanges tangible physical entities New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) American Stock Exchange (AMEX) Chicago Stock Exchange (CHX) Philadelphia Stock Exchange (PHLX) NYSE Members 1. Commission brokers 2. Independent brokers 3. Competitive traders 4. Specialists Listing Requirements Quantitative and qualitative characteristics a firm must possess to be listed on an exchange Vary by exchange Number of shareholders, number of public shares, market value of public shares, pre-tax income, etc... Over-the-Counter Market (OTC) Collection of brokers and dealers connected electronically Provides for trading in securities not listed on the organized exchanges Over-the-Counter Market (OTC) 1. Dealers hold inventory and make a market 2. Brokers act as agents in bringing together dealers with investors 3. Electronic network provides communications link NASD Many of the dealers and brokers of the OTC are members of the National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD), which licenses and oversees trading practices. NASDAQ The computerized trading network used by NASD is the NASD Automated Quotation System (NASDAQ) and is a sophisticated market of its own, separate from the OTC. Investment Banker Organization that underwrites and distributes new issues of securities Helps businesses and other entities obtain needed financing Investment Banking Process 1. Help corporations design securities with the features that are most attractive to investors given existing market conditions. 2. Buy these securities from the corporations. 3. Then resell the securities to investors (savers). Raising Capital: Stage I Decisions 1. Dollars to be raised 2. Type of securities used 3. Competitive bid or negotiated deal 4. Selection of an investment banker Raising Capital: Stage II Decisions 1. Reevaluating the initial decisions 2. Best efforts or underwritten issues 3. Issuance (flotation) costs 4. Setting the offering price Selling Procedures Registration statement filed with the SEC Prospectus summarizes a new security issue and the issuing company Underwriting syndicate group of investment banking firms to distribute the new issue Shelf Registration Securities registered with the SEC for sale at a later date Maintenance of the Secondary Market To facilitate orderly market for the new security, the investment banker maintains a market for the security following its issue. Regulation of Securities Markets Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) U.S. government agency regulates the issuance and trading of stocks and bonds to ensure investors receive fair financial disclosures to discourage fraud and misleading stock manipulation SEC Regulation 1. Jurisdiction over interstate offerings of new securities to the general public in amounts of $1.5 million or more 2. Regulates national securities exchanges, and listed companies must file annual reports SEC Regulation 3. Control stock trades by corporate insiders 4. Prohibit manipulation of securities prices by pools or wash sales International Financial Markets Increasingly global markets Greatest growth in emerging markets of the Pacific Rim U. S. exchanges still dominate worldwide trading activity Financial Intermediaries and the Banking System Chapter 4 Financial Intermediaries Specialized financial firms that facilitate the indirect transfer of funds from savers to borrowers by offering savings instruments and borrowing instruments Financial Intermediation The process by which financial intermediaries transform funds provided by savers into funds used by borrowers Benefits of Intermediaries Reduced costs Risk/diversification Funds divisibility/pooling Financial flexibility Related services Types of Intermediaries Commercial banks Credit unions Thrift institutions Mutual funds Whole life insurance companies Pension funds Safety (Risk) of Financial Institutions Banks, thrifts and credit unions insured by FDIC regulated by Federal Reserve Insurance companies regulated by states Pensions ERISA established PBGC Mutual funds SEC Evolution of Banking Systems Storage of valuables (gold & silver) Depository receipts Receipts could be traded Inventory could be lent out Only necessary to maintain enough reserves to cover demand for withdrawal (fractional reserves) Fractional Reserve System When the amount of reserves maintained by a financial institution to satisfy requests for withdrawals is less than 100 percent of total deposits Excess Reserves Reserves at a bank in excess of the amount required Equal to the total reserves minus the required reserves Available for lending an increase in reserves increases the money supply Money Supply Maximum change in the money supply equals the excess reserves divided by the reserve requirement Excess reserves Maximum in M S Reserve requirements U. S. Banking System Dual banking system bank chartering exists both at state and national levels Intrastate branching establishing branch banks within the same state Interstate branching establishing branch banks in more than one state Bank Holding Company Corporation that owns controlling interest in one or more banks Central Banking - The Federal Reserve System Manages the monetary policy of the country Decentralized network of regional, district banks Supervised by the Board of Governors, appointed by the President Responsibilities of the Fed Monetary Policy influence economic conditions (interest rates) by managing the nations money supply Monetary Policy Open Market Operations buy and sell Treasury securities to expand or contract the nation’s money supply Primary Dealer – has established relationship with the Federal Reserve to buy and sell government securities Monetary Policy Reserve requirements Discount rate charged by the Fed for loans it makes to banks to meet temporary shortages in required reserves Responsibilities of the Fed (continued) Monetary Policy Regulate and supervise financial institutions operating in the United States Check clearing operations provided by its payment system U. S. Banking Trends Deregulation Large financial service corporations Overlapping of products available International Banking Other countries have fewer financial institutions, but with more branches Foreign banks are allowed to engage in non-banking business activities Most of the world’s largest banks are not U. S. banks Edge Act International Banking Facilities (IBFs) The Cost of Money (Interest Rates) Chapter 5 The Cost of Money Interest rates represent the prices paid to borrow funds Equity investors expect to receive dividends and capital gains The Cost of Money 1. Production opportunities returns available within an economy from investment in productive assets 2. Time preferences for consumption the preferences of consumers for current consumption as opposed to saving for future consumption The Cost of Money 3. Risk the chance that a financial asset will not earn the return promised 4. Inflation the tendency of prices to increase over time Interest Rate Levels Supply and demand interact to determine interest rates between capital markets Demand typically declines during business recessions, shifting the equilibrium rate down Interest Rate Levels Financial markets are interdependent Interest Rate Levels Financial markets are interdependent Shifts in risk premiums, inflation rates, supply, and demand affect segments of the market differently Determinants of Market Interest Rates Quoted interest rate = k = k* + IP + DRP + LP + MRP k=the quoted or nominal rate k*=the real risk-free rate of interest IP=inflation premium DRP=default risk premium LP=liquidity, or marketability, premium MRP, maturity risk premium The Real Risk-Free Rate of Interest, k* The rate of interest that would exist on default-free U. S. Treasury securities if no inflation were expected Ranges from 1 to 4 percent in the U. S. in recent years The Nominal Risk-Free Rate of Interest, kRF kRF = k* + IP The rate of interest on a security that is free of all risk, except inflation Proxied by the T-bill rate or T-bond rate kRF includes an inflation premium Inflation Premium (IP) A premium for expected inflation that investors add to the real risk-free rate of return Default Risk Premium (DRP) Difference between the interest rate on a U. S. Treasury bond and a corporate bond of equal maturity and marketability Compensates for risk that a borrower will default on a loan Liquidity Premium (LP) Premium added to the rate on a security if the security cannot be converted to cash on short notice and at close to the original cost Interest Rate Risk Risk of capital losses to which investors are exposed because of changing interest rates Maturity Risk Premium (MRP) Premium that reflects the interest rate risk Bonds with longer maturities have greater interest rate risk Reinvestment rate risk Term Structure of Interest Rates Relationship between yields and maturities of securities The graph is a yield curve Yield Curve Interest Rate Figure 5-4 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 Mar-80 Mar-01 1 5 10 20 Years to Maturity Yield Curve “Normal” Yield Curve upward sloping yield curve Inverted (“Abnormal”) Yield Curve downward sloping yield curve Term Structure Theories (Explanations) Expectations theory shape of the yield curve depends on investors’ expectations about future inflation rates Liquidity preference theory lenders prefer to make short-term loans rather than long-term loans (all else equal) Term Structure Theories (Explanations) Market segmentation theory each borrower has a preferred maturity and the slope of the yield curve depends on the supply of and demand for funds in the long-term market relative to the short-term market Other Factors That Influence Interest Rate Levels Federal Reserve policy Level of the federal budget deficit Foreign trade balance Level of business activity Interest Rates and Stock Prices Higher interest rates increase costs and thus lower a firm’s profits Interest rates affect the level of economic activity and corporate profits Interest rates affect investment competition between stocks and bonds Business Organizations and the Tax Environment Chapter 6 Alternative Forms of Business Organization Sole Proprietorship - unincorporated business owned by one individual Alternative Forms of Business Organization Sole Proprietorship Partnership - unincorporated business owned by two or more persons Alternative Forms of Business Organization Sole Proprietorship Partnership Corporation - legal entity created by a state, separate and distinct from its owners and managers, having unlimited life, easy transferability of ownership, and limited liability Alternative Forms of Business Organization Sole Proprietorship Partnership Corporation corporate charter is filed with the state providing information about the company and directors Alternative Forms of Business Organization Sole Proprietorship Partnership Corporation corporate charter is filed with the state providing information about the company and directors bylaws are for internal management and procedures Finance in the Organizational Structure of the Firm Board of Directors President VP Marketing VP Finance (CFO) VP Manufacturing Treasurer Credit Manager Inventory Manager Controller Director of Capital Budgeting Cost Accounting Financial Accounting Tax Department The Goals of the Corporation Stockholder wealth maximization considers the risk and timing associated with expected earnings per share in order to maximize the price of the firm’s common stock The Goals of the Corporation Stockholder wealth maximization Managerial incentives to maximize shareholder wealth The Goals of the Corporation Stockholder wealth maximization Managerial incentives to maximize shareholder wealth Social responsibility The Goals of the Corporation Stockholder wealth maximization Managerial incentives to maximize shareholder wealth Social responsibility Stock price maximization and social welfare Managerial Actions to Maximize Shareholder Wealth Profit Maximization Will profit maximization also result in stock price maximization? Managerial Actions to Maximize Shareholder Wealth Profit Maximization Consider: total corporate profit versus earnings per share (EPS) timing of earnings risk of project risk of financing dividend payout versus reinvestment Agency Relationships Owner/principal hires an agent and delegates decision-making authority to that agent to act on behalf of the principal Agency problem exists when conflict of interest between principal and agent between stockholders and managers between stockholders and creditors Stockholders versus Managers The threat of firing The threat of hostile takeover due to underpriced stock may be warded off with poison pill or greenmail Structuring management incentives executive stock options performance shares Stockholders versus Creditors Creditors lend based on expectations riskiness of the firms existing assets expectations concerning the riskiness of future asset additions the firm’s existing capital structure expectations concerning future capital structure changes (amount of debt) Stakeholders must be treated fairly Factors Affecting Stock Prices The External Environment Legal constraints General level of economic activity Tax laws Conditions in the stock market Factors Affecting Stock Prices External Constraints Antitrust laws Environmental regulations Product and workplace safety regulations Employment practice rules Federal reserve policy International developments Factors Affecting Stock Prices Strategic Policy Decisions Controlled by Management Types of product or services produced Production methods used Relative use of debt financing Dividend policy Factors Affecting Stock Prices Level of Economic Activity and Corporate Taxes Expected profitability Timing of cash flows Degree of risk Factors Affecting Stock Prices Stock Market Conditions Stock price Business Ethics Company’s attitude and conduct toward its stakeholders (employees, customers, stockholders…) Ethical behavior requires fair and honest treatment toward all parties Business Ethics Avoids fines and legal expenses Builds public trust Attracts business from customers who appreciate and support the firm’s policies Attracts and keeps employees of the highest caliber Supports the economic viability of the communities in which it operates Forms of Businesses in Other Countries Public limited company (PLC) Aktiengesellshaft (AG) Sociedad Anónima (SA) Industrial groups keiretsu chaebol Multinational Corporations Operate in more than one country To seek new markets To seek raw materials To seek new technology To seek production efficiency To avoid political and regulatory hurdles Multinational versus Domestic Managerial Finance Different currency denominations Multinational versus Domestic Managerial Finance Different currency denominations Economic and legal ramifications Language differences Cultural differences Multinational versus Domestic Managerial Finance Different currency denominations Economic and legal ramifications Language differences Cultural differences Role of governments Multinational versus Domestic Managerial Finance Different currency denominations Economic and legal ramifications Language differences Cultural differences Role of governments Political risk The Federal Income Tax System Count on changes indexed items new tax laws Individual Income Taxes Progressive tax: higher tax on higher incomes Taxable income is gross income minus exemptions and allowable deductions Marginal tax rate is the tax on the last unit of income Average tax rate is taxes paid divided by taxable income Taxes On Dividend and Interest Income Dividends are paid out of earnings that have already been taxed Interest on most state and local government bonds (municipals) is not subject to federal income taxes Comparing Yields Tax-free and Taxable Equivalent pre-tax yield on a taxable investment = Yield on tax-free investment 1 - Marginal tax rate A taxpayer in the 30% marginal tax bracket who could buy a municipal bond that yields 10 % would have to receive a before-tax yield of 14.3% on a corporate or US Treasury bond to have the same after-tax yield. 10% 14.3% 1 0.30 Individual Income Taxes Interest paid by individuals is generally not deductible, with the exception of mortgage interest Capital gains versus ordinary income profit from sale of capital asset benefits of long-term capital gains Business versus personal expenses Corporate Income Taxes Interest and dividend income received by a corporation 70% of dividends received by another corporation is excluded from taxable income Interest and dividends paid by a corporation interest is deducted from income Corporate Income Taxes Corporate capital gains currently taxed at same rate Corporate loss carryback and carryover losses can be carried back 2 years and carried over to the next 20 years Accumulated earnings tax Corporate Income Taxes Consolidated corporate tax returns if own 80% or more S Corporations small corporation that elects to be taxed as a proprietorship or partnership yet retains limited liability and other benefits of incorporating Corporate Tax Rates in Other Countries I. Developed Markets Australia Tax Rate Canada 44.6 France 36.7 Germany 57.4/44.1 Italy 53.2 Japan 51.6 Netherlands 35.0 Switzerland 28.5 United Kingdom 31.0 United States 40.0 36.0% Corporate Tax Rates in Other Countries II. Emerging Markets Tax Rate Brazil 25.0 Chile 15.0 China, PR 33.0 India 35.0 Indonesia 30.0 Korea 30.8 Malaysia 30.0 Mexico 34.0 Philippines 35.0 Thailand 30.0 Depreciation Expensing the price of a long-term asset over time End of Chapter 6 Business Organizations and the Tax Environment Analysis of Financial Statements Chapter 7 Financial Statements and Reports Annual Report a report issued annually by a corporation to its stockholders management’s opinion of the past year’s operations and the firm’s future prospects Financial Statements and Reports Annual Report basic financial statements income statement balance sheet statement of retained earnings statement of cash flows Financial Statements and Reports Income Statement a statement summarizing the firm’s revenues and expenses over an accounting period, generally a quarter or a year Financial Statements and Reports Balance Sheet a statement of the firm’s financial position at a specific point in time Financial Statements and Reports Balance Sheet - points worth noting 1. Cash versus other assets 2. Liabilities versus stockholders equity 3. Breakdown of common equity account common stock paid in capital retained earnings Financial Statements and Reports Balance Sheet - points worth noting 4. Accounting alternatives FIFO (first-in, first-out) LIFO (last-in, first-out) Accelerated or straight-line depreciation The time dimension – balance sheet is at a point in time Financial Statements and Reports Statement of Retained Earnings a statement reporting changes in the firm’s retained earnings as a result of the income generated and retained during the year the balance sheet figure for retained earnings is the sum of the earnings retained for each year the firm has been in business Financial Statements and Reports Accounting income versus cash flow cash flows the cash receipts and the cash disbursements, as opposed to the revenues and expenses reported for computation of net income, generated by a firm during some specified period Financial Statements and Reports Accounting income versus cash flow accounting profit a firm’s net income as reported on its income statement operating cash flows those cash flows that arise from normal operations the difference between cash collections and cash expenses Financial Statements and Reports Statement of cash flows a statement reporting the impact of a firm’s operating, investing, and financing activities on cash flows over an accounting period Financial Statements and Reports Statement of cash flows sources of cash increase in liability or equity account decrease in an asset account uses of cash decrease in a liability or equity account increase in an asset account Ratio Analysis Liquidity ratios ratios that relates the firm’s cash and other assets to its current liabilities Liquid asset an asset that can be easily converted into cash without significant loss of its original value Ratio Analysis Current ratio indicates the extent to which current liabilities are covered by assets expected to be converted into cash in the near future Current assets Current ratio Current Liabilitie s Ratio Analysis Quick (acid test) ratio deducts inventories from current assets and divides the remainder by current liabilities a variation of the current ratio Current assets - Inventorie s Quick ratio Current Liabilitie s Ratio Analysis Asset management ratios ratios that measure how effectively a firm is managing its assets Ratio Analysis Inventory turnover ratio Cost of Goods Sold Inventorie s Ratio Analysis Days sales outstanding (DSO) Receivables Receivables Average sales per day Annual sales 360 Ratio Analysis Fixed assets turnover ratio Sales Net fixed assets Ratio Analysis Total assets turnover ratio Sales Total assets Ratio Analysis Debt management ratios analyze the company’s use of debt Financial leverage the use of debt financing Ratio Analysis Debt ratio Total debt Total assets Ratio Analysis Times-interest-earned (TIE) ratio EBIT Interest Charges Ratio Analysis Fixed charge coverage ratio EBIT Lease payments Interest Lease Sinking fund payments 1 Tax rate Charges payments Ratio Analysis Profitability ratios ratios showing the effect of liquidity, asset management, and debt management on operating results Ratio Analysis Net profit margin on sales Net income Sales Ratio Analysis Return on total assets (ROA) Net income Total assets Ratio Analysis Return on common equity (ROE) Net income available to common stockholde rs Common equity Ratio Analysis Market value ratios ratios that relate the firm’s stock price to its earnings and book value per share Ratio Analysis Earnings per share (EPS) Net income available to common stockholde rs Number of common shares outstandin g Ratio Analysis Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio Market price per share Earnings per share Ratio Analysis Book value per share Common equity Number of common shares outstandin g Ratio Analysis Market/Book (M/B) ratio Market price per share Book value per share Ratio Analysis Trend analysis an analysis of a firm’s financial ratios over time used to determine improvement or deterioration in its financial situation Ratio Analysis Summary of ratio analysis: The Du Pont Chart a chart designed to show the relationships among return on investment, asset turnover, the profit margin, and leverage Ratio Analysis Du Pont Equation ROA Net profit margin Total assets turnover Net income Sales Sales Total Assets Ratio Analysis Comparative ratio analysis an analysis based on a comparison of a firm’s ratios with those of other firms in the same industry Uses and Limitations of Ratio Analysis 1. Large firms operate divisions in different industries difficult to develop meaningful industry averages 2. If the goal is to be better than average, industry averages are not the target focus on the industry leaders’ ratios Uses and Limitations of Ratio Analysis 3. Inflation distorts balance sheets depreciation and inventory costs affect income statements comparative analysis of firm over time comparing firms of different ages Uses and Limitations of Ratio Analysis 4. Seasonal factors distort ratios use monthly averages as base for inventory and receivables instead of one particular month 5. Window dressing techniques make financial statements appear better than they actually are borrowing “long-term” to be repaid quickly distorts liquidity ratios Uses and Limitations of Ratio Analysis 6. Different accounting practices distorts comparisons inventory valuation depreciation methods Uses and Limitations of Ratio Analysis 7. Difficult to generalize about “good” or “bad” ratios high current ratio can indicate strong liquidity or excessive cash high fixed assets turnover can indicate efficient use or undercapitalized Uses and Limitations of Ratio Analysis 8. Firm may have some “good” ratios and others that look “bad” difficult to tell whether overall the company is strong or weak statistical procedures can analyze the net effects of a set of ratios Stock Dividends and Stock Splits Stock splits an action taken by the firm to increase the number of shares outstanding, such as doubling the number of shares outstanding by giving each shareholder two new shares for each one formerly held Stock Dividends and Stock Splits Stock dividends a dividend paid in the form of additional shares of stock rather than in cash Balance sheet effects stock splits reduce the stock “par value” proportionately stock dividends do not reduce the “par value” but transfer retained earnings to common stock and paid-in capital accounts Stock Dividends and Stock Splits Price effects merely issuing additional shares does not increase the market value of the company, and can reduce share price due to dilution increasing earnings and dividends increases the value of the company Financial Planning and Control Chapter 8 Financial Planning The projection of sales, income, and assets based on alternative production and marketing strategies, as well as the determination of the resources needed to achieve these projections Financial Control The phase in which financial plans are implemented Control deals with the feedback and adjustment process required to ensure adherence to plans and modification of plans because of unforeseen changes Sales Forecasts A forecast of a firm’s unit and dollar sales for some future period Sales Forecasts A forecast of a firm’s unit and dollar sales for some future period Generally based on recent sales trends plus forecasts of the economic prospects for the nation, region, industry, and so forth Projected (Pro Forma) Financial Statements Project the asset requirements for the coming period, then project the liabilities and equity that will be generated under normal operations, and subtract the projected liabilities and equity from the required assets to estimate the additional funds needed (AFN) to support the level of forecasted operations Projected Balance Sheet Method A method of forecasting financial requirements based on forecasted financial statements 1. Forecast the Income Statement 2. Forecast the Balance Sheet Adjust for spontaneously generated funds obtained from routine business transactions Projected Balance Sheet Method A method of forecasting financial requirements based on forecasted financial statements 1. Forecast the Income Statement 2. Forecast the Balance Sheet 3. Determine how to raise the additional funds needed Projected Balance Sheet Method A method of forecasting financial requirements based on forecasted financial statements 1. Forecast the Income Statement 2. Forecast the Balance Sheet 3. Determine how to raise the additional funds needed 4. Financing feedbacks Projected Balance Sheet Method Financing feedbacks are the effects on the income statement and balance sheet of actions taken to finance forecasted increases in assets Projected (Pro Forma) Financial Statements Analysis of the forecast determine if the forecast meets the firm’s financial targets planned management changes must be incorporated into the forecasts iterative process Other Considerations in Forecasting Excess capacity Sales level Full capacity sales Percent of capacity used to generate sales level Other Considerations in Forecasting Economies of scale variable cost of goods sold ratio changes with size of the firm this affects the addition to retained earnings, and thus the AFN Other Considerations in Forecasting Lumpy assets assets that cannot be acquired in small increments, but must be obtained in large, discrete amounts Other Considerations in Forecasting Lumpy assets assets that cannot be acquired in small increments, but must be obtained in large, discrete amounts small increase in sales can require significant increase in plant and equipment Financial Control Budgeting and Leverage Relationship between sales volume and profitability under different operating conditions Control phase and process Operating Breakeven Analysis An analytical technique for studying the relationship among sales revenues, operating costs, and profits Only deals with the operating section of the income statement Operating Breakeven Analysis Operating breakeven point represents the level of production and sales where operating income is zero the point where revenues from sales just equal total operating costs Breakeven Graph Revenues and Costs ($ millions) Total Sales 1,400 Revenues (P x Q) Total Operating 1,200 -Operating Profit Costs (F + Q x V) (EBIT > 0) 000 Operating Breakeven SBE 855 Point (EBIT = 0) 00 - Operating - Loss -(EBIT < 0) 00 00 100 Total fixed Costs (F) 93.5 0 20 40 57 60 QBE 80 100 120 Units Produced and Sold(millions) Breakeven Computation Sales Total revenues (P = operating x Q) costs = Total variable costs + Total fixed costs (P x Q) = TOC = (V x Q) + F F F QBE P - V Contributi on margin SBE F F V Gross profit margin 1- P Using Operating Breakeven Analysis New product decisions required sales to achieve profitability Expansion of operations increase fixed and variable costs increase sales Modernization and automation increased fixed and reduced variable costs Operating Leverage The existence of fixed operating costs, such that a change in sales will produce a larger change in operating income (EBIT) Operating Leverage Degree of operating leverage (DOL) the percentage change in NOI (or EBIT) associated with a given percentage change in sales EBIT EBIT Percentage change in NOI EBIT EBIT DOL Percentage change in sales Sales Q Sales Q Operating Leverage Q P - V DOL Q Q P - V F Q P Q V Gross profit DOL S Q P Q V F EBIT Operating Leverage Operating leverage and operating breakeven higher operating leverage increases operating breakeven point Financial Leverage The existence of fixed financial costs such as interest When a change in EBIT results in a larger change in EPS Financial Leverage Degree of financial leverage (DFL) the percentage change in EPS that results from a given percentage change in EBIT Financial Leverage EPS Percentage change in EPS EPS DFL Percentage change in EBIT EBIT EBIT EBIT EBIT DFL EBIT - I EBIT - Financial BEP Combining Operating and Financial Leverage The greater degree of operating leverage, or fixed operating costs for a particular level of operations, the more sensitive EBIT will be to changes in sales volume Combining Operating and Financial Leverage The greater degree of operating leverage, or fixed operating costs for a particular level of operations, the more sensitive EBIT will be to changes in sales volume The greater the degree of financial leverage (or fixed financial costs for a particular level of operations), the more sensitive EPS will be to changes in EBIT Combining Operating and Financial Leverage If a firm has a considerable amount of both operating and financial leverage, then a small change in sales will lead to wide fluctuations in EPS Degree of total leverage (DTL) the percentage change in EPS resulting from a change in sales Combining Operating and Financial Leverage Gross profit EBIT DTL EBIT EBIT - Financial BEP Gross profit EBIT - Financial BEP S VC Q P - V EBIT - I QP V F I Using Leverage and Forecasting for Control Changes in operations affect income, which impacts on the balance sheet and the financing needs of the firm Forecasted results and their impact can be adjusted ahead of time Feedback needs evaluated Cash Budgeting Cash budget a schedule showing cash receipts, cash disbursements, and cash balances for a firm over a specified time period Target (minimum) cash budget the minimum cash balance a firm desires to maintain in order to conduct business Cash Budgeting Disbursements and receipts method (scheduling) the net cash flow is determined by estimating the cash disbursements and the cash receipts expected to be generated each period The Time Value of Money Chapter 9 The Time Value of Money Which would you rather have ? $100 today - or $100 one year from today Sooner is better ! The Time Value of Money How about $100 today or $105 one year from today? We revalue current dollars and future dollars using the time value of money Cash flow time line graphically shows the timing of cash flows Cash Flow Time Lines Time 0 is today; Time 1 is one period from today Interest rate 0 1 5% Time Cash Flows -100 Outflow 105 Inflow 2 3 4 5 Future Value Compounding the process of determining the value of a cash flow or series of cash flows some time in the future when compound interest is applied Future Value PV = present value or starting amount, say, $100 i = interest rate, say, 5% per year would be shown as 0.05 INT = dollars of interest you earn during the year $100 0.05 = $5 FVn = future value after n periods or $100 + $5 = $105 after one year = $100 (1 + 0.05) = $100(1.05) = $105 Future Value FV1 PV INT PV PV(i) PV(1 i) Future Value The amount to which a cash flow or series of cash flows will grow over a given period of time when compounded at a given interest rate Compounded Interest Interest earned on interest FVn PV(1 i) n Cash Flow Time Lines Time 0 5% 1 2 3 4 5 5.00 5.25 5.51 5.79 6.08 Total Value 105.00 110.25 -100 Interest 115.76 121.55 127.63 Future Value Interest Factor for i and n (FVIFi,n) The future value of $1 left on deposit for n periods at a rate of i percent per period The multiple by which an initial investment grows because of the interest earned Future Value Interest Factor for i and n (FVIFi,n) FVn = PV(1 + i)n = PV(FVIFi,n) Period (n) 1 2 3 4 5 6 4% 1.0400 1.0816 1.1249 1.1699 1.2167 1.2653 5% 6% 1.0500 1.1025 1.1576 1.2155 1.2763 1.3401 1.0600 1.1236 1.1910 1.2625 1.3382 1.4185 For $100 at i = 5% and n = 5 periods Future Value Interest Factor for i and n (FVIFi,n) FVn = PV(1 + i)n = PV(FVIFi,n) Period (n) 1 2 3 4 5 6 4% 1.0400 1.0816 1.1249 1.1699 1.2167 1.2653 5% 6% 1.0500 1.1025 1.1576 1.2155 1.2763 1.3401 1.0600 1.1236 1.1910 1.2625 1.3382 1.4185 For $100 at i = 5% and n = 5 periods $100 (1.2763) = $127.63 Financial Calculator Solution Five keys for variable input N = the number of periods I = interest rate per period may be I, INT, or I/Y PV = present value PMT = annuity payment FV = future value Two Solutions Find the future value of $100 at 5% interest per year for five years 1. Numerical Solution: Time 0 5% Cash -100 Flows 1 2 3 5.00 5.25 5.51 4 5.79 5 6.08 Total Value 105.00 110.25 115.76 121.55 127.63 FV5 = $100(1.05)5 = $100(1.2763) = $127.63 Two Solutions 2. Financial Calculator Solution: Inputs: N = 5 I = 5 PV = -100 PMT = 0 FV = ? Output: = 127.63 Graphic View of the Compounding Process: Growth Relationship among Future Value, Growth or Interest Rates, and Time Future Value of $1 5 i= 15% 4 i= 10% 3 i= 5% 2 1 0 1 0 2 4 6 i= 0% 8 10 Periods Present Value Opportunity cost the rate of return on the best available alternative investment of equal risk If you can have $100 today or $127.63 at the end of five years, your choice will depend on your opportunity cost Present Value The present value is the value today of a future cash flow or series of cash flows The process of finding the present value is discounting, and is the reverse of compounding Opportunity cost becomes a factor in discounting Cash Flow Time Lines 0 1 2 3 4 5 5% PV = ? 127.63 Present Value Start with future value: FVn = PV(1 + i)n 1 FVn PV FVn n n (1 i) 1 i Two Solutions Find the present value of $127.63 in five years when the opportunity cost rate is 5% 1. Numerical Solution: 0 5% 1 2 3 PV = ? ÷ 1.05 ÷ 1.05 ÷ 1.05 -100.00 105.00 110.25 115.76 4 ÷ 1.05 5 127.63 121.55 $127.63 $127.63 PV $127.63(0.7835) $100 5 1.2763 1.05 Two Solutions Find the present value of $127.63 in five years when the opportunity cost rate is 5% 2. Financial Calculator Solution: Inputs: N = 5 I = 5 PMT = 0 FV = 127.63 PV = ? Output: = -100 Graphic View of the Discounting Process Present Value of $1 Relationship among Present Value, 1 Interest Rates, and Time i= 0% 0.8 0.6 i= 5% 0.4 i= 10% 0.2 0 2 4 6 8 i= 15% 10 12 14 16 18 Periods 20 Solving for Time and Interest Rates Compounding and discounting are reciprocals FVn = PV(1 + i)n 1 FVn PV FVn n n (1 i) 1 i Four variables: PV, FV, i and n If you know any three, you can solve for the fourth Solving for i For $78.35 you can buy a security that will pay you $100 after five years We know PV, FV, and n, but we do not know i 0 i=? -78.35 1 2 3 4 FVn = PV(1 + i)n $100 = $78.35(1 + i)5 Solve for i 5 100 Numerical Solution FVn = PV(1 + i)n $100 = $78.35(1 + i)5 $100 5 1 i 1.2763 $78.35 1 5 1 i 1.2763 1.05 i 1.05 - 1 0.05 Financial Calculator Solution Inputs: N = 5 PV = -78.35 PMT = 0 FV = 100 I = ? Output: = 5 This procedure can be used for any rate or value of n, including fractions Solving for n Suppose you know that the security will provide a return of 10 percent per year, that it will cost $68.30, and that you will receive $100 at maturity, but you do not know when the security matures. You know PV, FV, and i, but you do not know n - the number of periods. Solving for n FVn = PV(1 + i)n $100 = $68.30(1.10)n By trial and error you could substitute for n and find that n = 4 0 10% -68.30 1 2 n-1 n=? 100 Financial Calculator Solution Inputs: I = 10 PV = -68.30 PMT = 0 FV = 100 N = ? Output: = 4.0 Annuity An annuity is a series of payments of an equal amount at fixed intervals for a specified number of periods Ordinary (deferred) annuity has payments at the end of each period Annuity due has payments at the beginning of each period FVAn is the future value of an annuity over n periods Future Value of an Annuity The future value of an annuity is the amount received over time plus the interest earned on the payments from the time received until the future date being valued The future value of each payment can be calculated separately and then the total summed Future Value of an Annuity If you deposit $100 at the end of each year for three years in a savings account that pays 5% interest per year, how much will you have at the end of three years? 0 5% 1 2 100 100 3 100.00 = 100 (1.05)0 105.00 = 100 (1.05)1 110.25 = 100 (1.05)2 315.25 Future Value of an Annuity FVA n PMT(1 i)0 PMT(1 i)1 PMT(1 i)n -1 PMT n -1 t 0 1 i t 1 i n 1 n nt PMT 1 i PMT t 1 i 1.053 1 FVA 3 $100 $100(3.1525) $315.25 0.05 Future Value of an Annuity Financial calculator solution: Inputs: N = 3 I = 5 PV = 0 PMT = 100 FV = ? Output: = 315.25 To solve the same problem, but for the present value instead of the future value, change the final input from FV to PV Annuities Due If the three $100 payments had been made at the beginning of each year, the annuity would have been an annuity due. Each payment would shift to the left one year and each payment would earn interest for an additional year (period). Future Value of an Annuity $100 at the end of each year 0 5% 1 2 100 100 3 100.00 = 100 (1.05)0 105.00 = 100 (1.05)1 110.25 = 100 (1.05)2 315.25 Future Value of an Annuity Due $100 at the start of each year 0 100 5% 1 2 100 100 3 105.00 = 100 (1.05)1 110.25 = 100 (1.05)2 115.7625 = 100 (1.05)3 331.0125 Future Value of an Annuity Due Numerical solution: n t FVA(DUE) n PMT 1 i t 1 n n -t PMT 1 i 1 i t 1 1 i n 1 PMT 1 i i Future Value of an Annuity Due Numerical solution: 1.053 1 FVA(DUE)n $100 1.05 0.05 $1003.1525 1.05 $331.0125 Future Value of an Annuity Due Financial calculator solution: Inputs: N = 3 I = 5 PV = 0 PMT = 100 FV = ? Output: = 331.0125 Present Value of an Annuity If you were offered a three-year annuity with payments of $100 at the end of each year Or a lump sum payment today that you could put in a savings account paying 5% interest per year How large must the lump sum payment be to make it equivalent to the annuity? Present Value of an Annuity 0 100 95.238 1 1.05 100 90.703 2 1.05 100 86.384 3 1.05 272.325 5% 1 2 3 100 100 100 Present Value of an Annuity Numerical solution: 1 1 1 PVA n PMT PMT PMT 1 2 n 1 i 1 i 1 i n 1 PMT t 1 1 i t Present Value of an Annuity 1 1 1 PVA n PMT PMT PMT 1 2 n 1 i 1 i 1 i 1 1 n 1 1 i n PMT PMT t i t 1 1 i 1 1 1.05 3 $100(2.7232) $272.32 $100 0.05 Present Value of an Annuity Financial calculator solution: Inputs: N = 3 I = 5 PMT = -100 = 0 PV = ? Output: = 272.325 FV Present Value of an Annuity Due Payments at the beginning of each year Payments all come one year sooner Each payment would be discounted for one less year Present value of annuity due will exceed the value of the ordinary annuity by one year’s interest on the present value of the ordinary annuity Present Value of an Annuity Due 0 100 1.05 1 100 1.05 1.05 100 100 1.05 1 1.05 100 0 1.05 1 5% 1 100.000 100 95.238 100 1.05 90.703 2 2 1.05 1.05 285.941 2 100 3 Present Value of an Annuity Due Numerical solution: n n -1 1 1 PVA(DUE)n PMT 1 i PMT 1 t t 0 1 i t 1 1 i 1 1 n 1 i PMT 1 i i Present Value of an Annuity Due 1 1 3 1.05 PV(DUE)3 $100 1.05 0.05 $100 [(2.72325)(1.05)] $100 (2.85941) $285.941 Present Value of an Annuity Due Financial calculator solution: Switch to the beginning-of-period mode, then enter Inputs: N = 3 I = 5 PMT = -100 FV = 0 PV = ? Output: = 285.94 Then switch back to the END mode Solving for Interest Rates with Annuities Suppose you pay $846.80 for an investment that promises to pay you $250 per year for the next four years, with 0 payments 1 made at 2the end of3each year4 i=? -846.80 1 1 250 250 1 250 i 4 $846.80 $250 i 250 Solving for Interest Rates with Annuities Numerical solution: Trial and error using different values for i using until you find i where the present value of the four-year, $250 annuity equals $846.80. The solution is 7%. Solving for Interest Rates with Annuities Financial calculator solution: Inputs: N = 4 PV = -846.8 PMT = 250 FV = 0 I = ? Output: = 7.0 Perpetuities Perpetuity - a stream of equal payments expected to continue forever Consol - a perpetual bond issued by the British government to consolidate past debts; in general, and perpetual bond Payment PMT PVP Interest Rate i Uneven Cash Flow Streams Uneven cash flow stream is a series of cash flows in which the amount varies from one period to the next Payment (PMT) designates constant cash flows Cash Flow (CF) designates cash flows in general, including uneven cash flows Present Value of Uneven Cash Flow Streams PV of uneven cash flow stream is the sum of the PVs of the individual cash flows of the stream 1 1 1 PV CF1 CF2 CFn 1 2 n 1 i 1 i 1 i 1 CFt t t 1 1 i n Future Value of Uneven Cash Flow Streams Terminal value is the future value of an uneven cash flow stream FVn CF1 1 i n -1 CF2 1 i n - 2 CFn 1 i 0 n t 1 CFt 1 i n - t Solving for i with Uneven Cash Flow Streams Using a financial calculator, input the CF values into the cash flow register and then press the IRR key for the Internal Rate of Return, which is the return on the investment. Compounding Periods Annual compounding interest is added once a year Semiannual compounding interest is added twice a year 10% annual interest compounded semiannually would pay 5% every six months adjust the periodic rate and number of periods before calculating Interest Rates Simple (Quoted) Interest Rate rate used to compute the interest payment paid per period Effective Annual Rate (EAR) annual rate of interest actually being earned, considering the compounding of interest m i simple 1.0 EAR 1 m Interest Rates Annual Percentage Rate (APR) the periodic rate multiplied by the number of periods per year this is not adjusted for compounding More frequent compounding: i simple FVn PV 1 m mn Amortized Loans Loans that are repaid in equal payments over its life Borrow $15,000 to repay in three equal payments at the end of the next three years, with 8% interest due on the outstanding loan balance at the beginning of each year Amortized Loans 0 8% 15,000 1 2 PMT PMT PVA 3 $15,000 PMT 1 i 1 PMT 1 i 2 3 PMT t 1 1 i t 3 PMT t 1 1.08 t 3 PMT PMT 1 i 3 Amortized Loans Numerical Solution: 1 13 3 3 PMT 1 1.08 $15,000 PMT PMT t t 0.08 t 1 1.08 t 1 1.08 $15,000 PMT 2.5771 $15,000 PMT $5,820.50 2.5771 Amortized Loans Financial calculator solution: Inputs: N = 3 I = 8 PV = 15000 FV = 0 PMT = ? Output: = -5820.5 Amortized Loans Repayment of Remaining Beginning a Payment (2) Interest (3) Principalb (2)- Balance (1)Amount (1) (4)=(5) (3)=(4) Amortization Schedule shows how a loan will 1 $ repaid 15,000.00 with $ 5,820.50 $ 1,200.00of $interest 4,620.50 $ 10,379.50 be a breakdown and 2 10,379.50 5,820.50 830.36 4,990.14 5,389.36 3 5,389.36 5,820.50 431.15 5,389.35 0.01 principle on each payment date Year aInterest is calculated by multiplying the loan balance at the beginning of the year by the interest rate. Therefor, interest in Year 1 is $15,000(0.08) = $1,200; in Year 2, it is $10,379.50(0.08)=$830.36; and in Year 3, it is $5,389.36(0.08) = $431.15 (rounded). bRepayment of principal is equal to the payment of $5,820.50 minus the interest charge for each year. cThe $0.01 remaining balance at the end of Year 3 results from rounding differences. c Comparing Interest Rates 1. Simple, or quoted, rate, (isimple) rates compare only if instruments have the same number of compounding periods per year 2. Periodic rate (iPER) APR represents the periodic rate on an annual basis without considering interest compounding APR is never used in actual calculations Comparing Interest Rates 3. Effective annual rate, EAR the rate that with annual compounding (m=1) would obtain the same results as if we had used the periodic rate with m compounding periods per year m i SIMPLE EAR 1 1.0 m m 1 i PER 1 Valuation Concepts Chapter 10 Basic Valuation From the time value of money we realize that the value of anything is based on the present value of the cash flows the asset is expected to produce in the future Basic Valuation Asset value V ^ CF 1 1 k 1 N t 1 ^ CF 2 1 k 2 ^ CF N N 1 k ^ CF t 1 k t ^t = the cash flow expected to be generated by CF the asset in period t Basic Valuation k = the return investors consider appropriate for holding such an asset usually referred to as the required return, based on riskiness and economic conditions Valuation of Financial Assets - Bonds Bond is a long term debt instrument Value is based on present value of: stream of interest payments principal repayment at maturity Valuation of Financial Assets - Bonds kd = required rate of return on a debt instrument N = number of years before the bond matures INT = dollars of interest paid each year (Coupon rate Par value) M = par or face, value of the bond to be paid off at maturity Valuation of Financial Assets - Bonds Bond value Vd N INT INT 1 k d 1 1 k d 2 INT 1 k t 1 d t M 1 k d N INT M 1 k d N 1 k d N Valuation of Financial Assets - Bonds Genesco 15%, 15year, $1,000 bonds valued at 15% required rated of return Valuation of Financial Assets - Bonds Numerical solution: 1 15 1 1 . 15 Bond $150 0.15 value 1 $1,000 15 1.15 Vd = $150 (5.8474) + $1,000 (0.1229) = $877.11 + $122.89 = $1,000 Valuation of Financial Assets - Bonds Financial Calculator Solution: Inputs: N = 15; I = k = 15; PMT = INT = 150 M = FV = 1000; PV = ? Output: PV = -1,000 Changes in Bond Values over Time If the market rate associated with a bond (kd) equals the coupon rate of interest, the bond will sell at its par value Changes in Bond Values over Time If interest rates in the economy fall after the bonds are issued, kd is below the coupon rate. The interest payments and maturity payoff stay the same, causing the bond’s value to increase (investors demand lower returns, so they are willing to pay higher prices for bonds). Changes in Bond Values over Time Current yield is the annual interest payment on a bond divided by its current market value Current INT yield Vd Ending Beginning bond value bond value V Capital d, End Vd, Begin gains Vd,Begin Beginning bond value yield Changes in Bond Values over Time Discount bond A bond that sells below its par value, which occurs whenever the going rate of interest rises above the coupon rate Premium bond A bond that sells above its par value, which occurs whenever the going rate of interest falls below the coupon rate Changes in Bond Values over Time An increase in interest rates will cause the price of an outstanding bond to fall A decrease in interest rates will cause the price to rise The market value of a bond will always approach its par value as its maturity date approaches, provided the firm does not go bankrupt Time path of value of a 15% Coupon, $1000 par value bond when interest Year k d = 10% k d = 15% k d = 20% rates are 10%,$1,000.00 15%, and 20% 0 $1,380.30 $766.23 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 $1,368.33 $1,355.17 $1,340.68 $1,324.75 $1,307.23 $1,287.95 $1,266.75 $1,243.42 $1,217.76 $1,189.54 $1,158.49 $1,124.34 $1,086.78 $1,045.45 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $769.47 $773.37 $778.04 $783.65 $790.38 $798.45 $808.14 $819.77 $833.72 $850.47 $870.56 $894.68 $923.61 $958.33 $1,000.00 Changes in Bond Values over Time Time path of value of a 15% Coupon, $1000 par value bond when interest rates are 10%, 15%, and 20% Bond Value $1,500 $1,250 Kd < Coupon Rate Kd = Coupon Rate $1,000 $750 $500 Kd > Coupon Rate $250 $0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 Years Yield to Maturity YTM is the average rate of return earned on a bond if it is held to maturity Approximate yield to maturity Annual Accrue d interest capital gains Average value of bond M - Vd INT N 2 Vd M 3 Bond Values with Semiannual Compounding INT 2N M 2 Vd t 2N t 1 kd kd 1 1 2 2 Interest Rate Risk on a Bond Interest Rate Price Risk - the risk of changes in bond prices to which investors are exposed due to changing interest rates Interest Rate Reinvestment Rate Risk the risk that income from a bond portfolio will vary because cash flows have to be reinvested at current market rates Value of Long and Short-Term 15% Annual Coupon Rate Bonds Current Market Interest Rate, k d 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Value of 1-Year 14-Year Bond Bond $ 1,095.24 $ 1,045.45 $ 1,000.00 $ 958.33 $ 920.00 $ $ $ $ $ 1,989.86 1,368.33 1,000.00 769.47 617.59 Value of Long and Short-Term 15% Annual Coupon Rate Bonds Bond Value ($) 2,000 14-Year Bond 1,500 1,000 1-Year Bond 500 0 5 10 15 20 25 Interest Rate, k d (%) Valuation of Financial Assets - Equity (Stock) Common stock Preferred stock hybrid similar to bonds with fixed dividend amounts similar to common stock as dividends are not required and have no fixed maturity date Stock Valuation Models Terms: Stock Valuation Models Terms: Expected Dividends D̂ t dividend the stockholde r expects to recieve at the end of Year t D 0 is the most recent dividend already paid D̂1 is the next dividend expected to be paid, and it will be paid at the end of this year D̂ 2 is the dividend expected at the end of two years All future dividends are expected values, so the estimates may differ among investors Stock Valuation Models Terms: Market Price P0 the price at which a stock sells in the market tod ay Stock Valuation Models Terms: Intrinsic Value P̂0 the value of an asset that, in the mind of an investor, is justified by the facts and may be different from the asset's current market price, its book value, or both Stock Valuation Models Terms: Expected Price P̂t the expected price of the stock at the end of each Year t Stock Valuation Models Terms: Growth Rate g the expected rate of change in dividends per share Stock Valuation Models Terms: Required Rate of Return k s the minimum rate of return on a common stock that stockholde rs consider acceptable , given its riskiness and returns available on other investment s Stock Valuation Models Terms: Dividend Yield D̂1 the expected dividend divided P0 by the current price of a share of stock Stock Valuation Models Terms: Capital Gain Yield P1 P0 the change in price (capital gain) P0 during a given year divided by its price at the beginning of the year Stock Valuation Models Terms: Expected Rate of Return k̂ s the rate of return on a common stock that an individual investor expects to receive expected dividend yield expected capital gains yield Stock Valuation Models Terms: Actual Rate of Return k s the rate of return on a common stock that an individual investor actually receives, after the fact; equal to the dividend yield plus the capital gains yield Stock Valuation Models Expected Dividends as the Basis for Stock Values If you hold a stock forever, all you receive is the dividend payments The value of the stock today is the present value of the future dividend payments Stock Valuation Models Expected Dividends as the Basis for Stock Values Value of Stock Vs Pˆ 0 PV of expected future dividends D̂1 D̂ 2 D̂ 1 2 1 k s 1 k s 1 k s D̂ t t t 1 1 k s Stock Valuation Models Stock Values with Zero Growth A zero growth stock is a common stock whose future dividends are not expected to grow at all D D D P̂0 1 2 1 k s 1 k s 1 k s D P̂0 ks D k̂ s P0 Stock Valuation Models Normal, or Constant, Growth Growth that is expected to continue into the foreseeable future at about the same rate as that of the economy as a whole g = a constant Stock Valuation Models Normal, or Constant, Growth (Gordon Model) D0 1 g D0 1 g D0 1 g P̂0 1 2 1 k s 1 k s 1 k s 1 D 0 1 g D̂1 ks g ks g 2 Expected Rate of Return on a Constant Growth Stock k̂ s D̂ 1 P0 g Dividend yield Capital gain Nonconstant Growth The part of the life cycle of a firm in which its growth is either much faster or much slower than that of the economy as a whole Nonconstant Growth 1. Compute the value of the dividends that experience nonconstant growth, and then find the PV of these dividends 2. Find the price of the stock at the end of the nonconstant growth period, at which time it becomes a constant growth stock, and discount this price back to the present 3. Add these two components to find the intrinsic value of the stock, P̂. 0 Changes in Stock Prices Investors change the rates of return required to invest in stocks Expectations about the cash flows associated with stocks change Valuation of Real (Tangible) Assets Valuation is still based on expected cash flows of the asset Valuation of Real (Tangible) Assets Year 1 2 3 4 5 Expected Cash Flow, CF $120,000 100,000 150,000 80,000 50,000 To earn a 14% return on investments like this, what is the value of this machine? Cash Flow Time Lines 0 14% 1 2 3 4 5 $120,000 $100,000 $150,000 $80,000 $50,000 PV of $120,000 PV of $100,000 PV of $150,000 PV of $80,000 PF of $50,000 Asset Value = V0 $356,790 $120,000 $100,000 $150,000 $80,000 $50,000 1 2 3 4 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.145 Risk and Rates of Return Chapter 11 Defining and Measuring Risk Risk is the chance that an outcome other than expected will occur Probability distribution is a listing of all possible outcomes with a probability assigned to each must sum to 1.0 (100%) Probability Distributions It either will rain, or it will not only two possible outcomes Outcome (1) Probability (2) Rain 0.40 = 40% No Rain 0.60 = 60% 1.00 100% Probability Distributions Martin Products and U. S. Electric State of the Economy Boom Normal Recession Probability of This State Occurring 0.2 0.5 0.3 1.0 Rate of Return on Stock if This State Occurs Martin Products U.S. Electric 110% 22% -60% 20% 16% 10% Expected Rate of Return The rate of return expected to be realized from an investment The mean value of the probability distribution of possible returns The weighted average of the outcomes, where the weights are the probabilities Expected Rate of Return State of the Economy (1) Boom Normal Recession Probability of This State Occurring (Pr i) (2) 0.2 0.5 0.3 1.0 Martin Products Return if This State Product: Occurs (ki) (2) x (3) ^ (3) 110% 22% -60% = (4) 22% 11% -18% 15% ^ km = Expected Rate of Return State of the Economy (1) Boom Normal Recession U. S. Electric Return if This Product: State Occurs (ki) (2) x (3) Probability of This State Occurring (Pr i) (2) 0.2 0.5 0.3 1.0 ^ (3) 20% 16% 10% ^ km= = (4) 4% 8% 3% 15% Expected Rate of Return k̂ Pr1k 1 Pr2k 2 Prnk n n Pri k i i 1 Continuous versus Discrete Probability Distributions Discrete probability distribution the number of possible outcomes is limited, or finite b. U. S. Electric Discrete Probability Probability Distributions of a. Martin Products Probability of 0.5 Occurrence 0.5 Occurrence 0.4 - 0.4 - 0.3 - 0.3 - 0.2 - 0.2 - 0.1 - 0.1 - -60 -45 -30 -15 0 15 22 30 45 60 75 90 110 Rate of Return (%) Expected Rate of Return (15%) -10 -5 0 5 10 16 20 Expected Rate of Return (15%) 25 Rate of Return (%) Continuous versus Discrete Probability Distributions Continuous probability distribution the number of possible outcomes is unlimited, or infinite Continuous Probability Probability Density Distributions U. S. Electric Martin Products -60 0 15 Expected Rate of Return 110 Rate of Return (%) Measuring Risk: The Standard Deviation Calculating Martin Products’ Standard Deviation Expected Payoff Return ^ ki k (1) (2) 110% 15% 22% 15% -60% 15% ki - ^k (1) - (2) = (3) 95 7 -75 (ki - ^k)2 (4) 9,025 49 5,625 Probability (5) (ki -^k)2Pr i (4) x (5) = (6) 0.2 1,805.0 0.5 24.5 0.3 1,687.5 Variance σ 2 3,517.0 2 Standard De viation σ M σ M 3,517 59.3% Measuring Risk: The Standard Deviation Variance 2 k n 2 i - k̂ Pri Standard deviation k i 1 2 n i 1 2 i - k̂ Pri Measuring Risk: Coefficient of Variation Standardized measure of risk per unit of return Calculated as the standard deviation divided by the expected return Useful where investments differ in risk and expected returns Risk Coefficient of variation CV Return k̂ Risk Aversion Risk-averse investors require higher rates of return to invest in higher-risk securities Risk Aversion and Required Returns Risk premium (RP) the portion of the expected return that can be attributed to the additional risk of an investment the difference between the expected rate of return on a given risky asset and that on a less risky asset Portfolio Risk and the Capital Asset Pricing Model CAPM a model based on the proposition that any stock’s required rate of return is equal to the risk-free rate of return plus a risk premium, where risk reflects diversification Portfolio a collection of investment securities Portfolio Returns Expected return on a portfolio, kp the weighted average expected return on the stocks held in the portfolio k̂ p w 1k̂ 1 w 2k̂ 2 w N k̂ N N w k̂ j j 1 j Portfolio Returns Realized rate of return, k the return that is actually earned actual return is generally different from the expected return Portfolio Risk Correlation coefficient, r a measure of the degree of relationship between two variables positively correlated stocks rates of return move together in the same direction negatively correlated stocks have rates of return than move in opposite directions Portfolio Risk Risk reduction combining stocks that are not perfectly positively correlated will reduce the portfolio risk by diversification the riskiness of a portfolio is reduced as the number of stocks in the portfolio increases the smaller the positive correlation, the lower the risk Firm-Specific Risk versus Market Risk Firm-specific risk that part of a security’s risk associated with random outcomes generated by events, or behaviors, specific to the firm Firm-Specific Risk versus Market Risk Firm-specific risk that part of a security’s risk associated with random outcomes generated by events, or behaviors, specific to the firm it can be eliminated by proper diversification Firm-Specific Risk versus Market Risk Market risk that part of a security’s risk that cannot be eliminated by diversification because it is associated with economic, or market factors that systematically affect most firms Firm-Specific Risk versus Market Risk Relevant risk the risk of a security that cannot be diversified away--its market risk this reflects a security’s contribution to the risk of a portfolio The Concept of Beta Beta coefficient, a measure of the extent to which the returns on a given stock move with the stock market = 0.5: stock is only half as volatile, or risky, as the average stock = 1.0: stock is of average risk = 2.0: stock is twice as risky as the average stock Portfolio Beta Coefficients The beta of any set of securities is the weighted average of the individual securities’ betas β p w 1β 1 w 2 β 2 w N β N N w β j j j1 The Relationship between Risk and Rates of Return k̂ j expectedrate of return on the j stock th The Relationship between Risk and Rates of Return k̂ j expected rate of re turn on the j stock th k j required rate of re turn on the j stock th The Relationship between Risk and Rates of Return k̂ j expectedrate of return on the j stock th k j required rate of return on the jth stock k RF risk free rate of return The Relationship between Risk and Rates of Return k̂ j expectedrate of return on the j stock th k j required rate of return on the jth stock k RF risk free rate of return RPM k M - k RF market risk premium The Relationship between Risk and Rates of Return k̂ j expectedrate of return on the jth stock k j required rate of return on the jth stock k RF risk free rate of return RPM k M - k RF market risk premium RPj k M - k RF β j risk premium on the jth stock Market Risk Premium RPM is the additional return over the risk-free rate needed to compensate investors for assuming an average amount of risk Assuming: Treasury bonds yield = 6% Average stock required return = 14% Thus, the market risk premium is 8%: RPM = kM - kRF = 14% - 6% = 8% Risk Premium for a Stock Risk premium for stock j = RPj = RPM j The Required Rate of Return for a Stock k j k RF RPM β j k RF k M k RF β j k j required rate of return for stock j The Required Rate of Return for a Stock Security Market Line (SML) The line that shows the relationship between risk as measured by beta and the required rate of return for individual securities Security Market Line Required Rate of Return khigh = 22 (%) kM = kA = Safe Stock: Risk Premium: 4% 14 kLow = 10 kRF = 60 2.0 SML : k j k RF k M k RF β j Market (Average Stock): Risk Premium: 8% Relatively Risky Stock: Risk Premium = 16% Risk-Free Rate: 6% 0.5 1.0 Risk, j The Impact of Inflation kRF is the price of money to a riskless borrower The nominal rate consists of a real (inflation-free) rate of return, k* an inflation premium (IP) An increase in expected inflation would increase the risk-free rate, kRF Changes in Risk Aversion The slope of the SML reflects the extent to which investors are averse to risk An increase in risk aversion increases the risk premium, which increases the slope Changes in a Stock’s Beta Coefficient The risk of a stock is affected by composition of its assets use of debt financing increased competition expiration of patents Any change in the required return (from change in or in expected inflation) affects the stock price Stock Market Equilibrium The condition under which the expected return on a security is just equal to its required return k̂ j k j Actual market price equals its intrinsic value as estimated by the marginal investor, leading to price stability Changes in Equilibrium Stock Prices Stock prices are not constant due to changes in: risk-free rate, kRF Market risk premium, kM - kRF Stock X’s beta coefficient, x Stock X’s expected growth rate, gX Changes in expected dividends, D0(1+g) Physical Assets versus Securities Riskiness of a physical asset is only relevant in terms of its effect on the stock’s risk Word of Caution CAPM based on expected conditions only have historical data as conditions change, future volatility may differ from past volatility estimates are subject to error The Cost of Capital Chapter 12 Cost of Capital The firm’s average cost of funds, which is the average return required by the firm’s investors What must be paid to attract funds The Logic of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital The use of debt impacts a fim’s ability to use equity, and vice versa, so the weighted average cost must be used to evaluate projects, regardless of the specific financing used to fund a particular project Basic Definitions Capital component types of capital used by firms to raise money kd = before tax interest cost kdT = kd(1-T) = after tax cost of debt kps = cost of preferred stock ks = cost of retained earnings ke = cost of external equity (new stock) Basic Definitions WACC = weighted average cost of capital Capital structure combination of different types of capital used by a firm After-Tax Cost of Debt The relevant cost of new debt—its yield to maturity (YTM) Taking into account the tax deductibility of interest Used to calculate the WACC kdT = bondholders’ required rate of return minus tax savings kdT = kd - (kd T) = kd(1-T) Cost of Preferred Stock Rate of return investors require on the firm’s preferred stock the preferred dividend divided by the net issuing price k ps Dps NP Dps P0 - Flotation costs Cost of Retained Earnings Rate of return investors require on the firm’s common stock D̂1 k Three g k̂ s s ksolutions: RF RP P0 1. CAPM 2. Bond yield plus risk premium 3. Discounted cash flow (DCF) The CAPM Approach k s k RF k M - k RF β s The Bond-Yield-PlusPremium Approach Estimate a risk premium above the bond interest rate Judgmental estimate for premium “Ballpark” figure only k s Bond yie ld Risk premium 10% 4% 14% The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Approach Price and expected rate of return on a share of common stock depend on the dividends expected on the stock P0 D̂1 1 k s 1 D̂2 1 k s 2 1 k t 1 D̂t t s D̂ 1 k s DCF Approach Internal equity, ks based on the fact that investors demand the firm use funds that are retained to earn an appropriate rate of return D̂1 ks g P0 Cost of Newly Issued Common Stock External equity, ke based on the cost of retained earnings adjusted for flotation costs (the expenses of selling new issues) D̂1 D̂1 ke g g NP P0 1 F Target Capital Structure Optimal capital structure percentage of debt, preferred stock, and common equity that will maximize the price of the firm’s stock Weighted Average Cost of Capital, WACC A weighted average of the component costs of debt, preferred stock, and common equity Proportion After - tax Proportion Cost of Proportion Cost of of cost of of preferred preferred of common common debt debt stock stock equity equity Wd k dT Wps k ps Ws ks Marginal Cost of Capital MCC the cost of obtaining another dollar of new capital the weighted average cost of the last dollar of new capital raised MCC Schedule Marginal cost of capital schedule a graph that relates the firm’s weighted average of each dollar of capital to the total amount of new capital raised reflects changing costs depending on amounts of capital raised MCC Schedule Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) (%) WACC3=11.5% 11.5 WACC2=11.0% 11.0 - 10.5 - WACC1=10.5% New Capital Raised (millions of dollars) 100 150 Break Point BP the dollar value of new capital that can be raised before an increase in the firm’s weighted average cost of capital occurs Break Total amount of lower costcapital of a giventype Point Proportion of this type of capital in the capital structure MCC Schedule Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) (%) WACC3=11.5% 11.5 - WACC2=11.0% 11.0 - 10.5 - WACC1=10.5% BPRE BPDebt New Capital Raised (millions of dollars) 100 150 MCC Schedule Schedule and break points depend on capital structure used MCC Schedule Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) (%) Smooth, or Continuous, Marginal Cost of Capital Schedule WACC 0- Dollars of New Capital Raised Combining the MCC and Investment Opportunity Schedules Use the MCC schedule to find the cost of capital for determining whether a project should be purchased Investment Opportunity Schedule (IOS) graph of the firm’s investment opportunities ranked in order of the projects’ rates of return Combining the MCC and Investment Opportunity Schedules Percent 12.0 - ReturnC = 12.0% ReturnB = 11.6% ReturnD = 11.5% 11.5 - ReturnE = 11.3% WACC2=11.0% 11.0 10.5 - WACC3=11.5% MCC IRRA = 10.8% WACC1=10.5% Optimal Capital Budget - $139 20 40 60 80 IOS 100 120 140 160 180 New Capital Raised and invested (millions of dollars) Capital Budgeting Chapter 13 Capital Budgeting The process of planning investments in assets whose cash flows are expected to extend beyond one year Importance of Capital Budgeting Long term impact Timing Substantial expenditures for which funds must be raised (either internally, externally, or both) Project Classifications Replacement decisions decisions to determine whether to purchase capital assets to take the place of existing assets to maintain existing operations Project Classifications Expansion decisions decisions to determine whether to purchase capital projects and add them to existing assets to increase existing operations Project Classifications Independent projects projects whose cash flows are not affected by the acceptance or rejection of other projects Project Classifications Mutually exclusive projects a set of projects where the acceptance of one project means the others cannot be accepted Steps in the Valuation Process 1. Determine the cost, or purchase price, of the asset 2. Estimate the cash flows expected from the asset 3. Evaluate the riskiness of the projected cash flows to determine the appropriate rate of return to use for computing the present value of the estimated cash flows 4. Compute the present value of the expected cash flows 5. Compare the present value of the expected cash inflows with the initial investment, or cost, required to acquire the asset Cash Flow Estimation Cash is different from accounting profits Count cash flows after taxes Only incremental cash flows are relevant to the accept/reject decision the change in a firm’s net cash flow attributable to an investment project Problems in Cash Flow Estimation 1. Sunk costs already incurred and cannot be recovered 2. Opportunity costs return on the best alternative use of an asset 3. Externalities the effect accepting a project will have on the cash flows in other areas of the firm Problems in Cash Flow Estimation 4. Shipping and Installation the depreciable basis for an asset includes the purchase price plus shipping and installation 5. Depreciation depreciation is a non-cash expense affecting taxable income, thus taxes 6. Inflation expected inflation should be built into the expected cash flows Identifying Incremental (Relevant) Cash Flows Cash flows that occur only at the start of the project’s life Cash flows that continue throughout a project’s life Cash flows that occur only at the end, or termination of the project Identifying Incremental (Relevant) Cash Flows Initial investment outlay includes the incremental cash flows associated with a project that occur only at the start of a project’s life, CF0 ^ Identifying Incremental (Relevant) Cash Flows Incremental operating cash flow changes in day-to-day cash flows that result from the purchase of a capital project and continue until the firm disposes of the asset Incremental Operating Cash Flow Re venue- Cash Expense s- Taxes NI t De prt EBTt 1 T De prt S t - OCt - De prt 1 T De prt S t - OCt 1 T TDe prt Identifying Incremental (Relevant) Cash Flows Terminal cash flow the net cash flow that occurs at the end of the life of a project, including the cash flows associated with: 1. final disposal of the project 2. returning the firm’s operations to where they were before the project was accepted Cash Flow Estimation and the Evaluation Process Expansion projects initial investment outlays required estimate the cash flows once production begins terminal cash flow Cash Flow Estimation and the Evaluation Process Replacement analysis must consider cash flow from old asset and new asset in decision cash flows from the new asset take the place of cash flows from the old asset Capital Budgeting Evaluation Techniques 1. Payback 2. Net present value (NPV) 3. Internal rate of return (IRR) Payback Payback period is the length of time before the original cost of an investment is recovered from the expected cash flows Unrecovere d cost at start Number of years before of full - recovery year Payback full recovery of Total cash flow during original investment full - recovery year Net Present Value NPV is a method of evaluating capital investment proposals by finding the present value of future net cash flows, discounted at the rate of return required by the firm One of two discounted cash flow (DCF) techniques using time value of money that we will cover Net Present Value CF̂1 CF̂2 CF̂n NPV CF̂0 1 2 n 1 k 1 k 1 k n CF̂t t t 0 1 k Discounted Payback Discounted payback is the length of time it takes for a project’s discounted cash flows to repay the initial cost of the investment Internal Rate of Return IRR is the discount rate that forces the PV of a project’s expected cash flows to equal its initial cost Similar to the YTM on a bond CF̂1 CF̂2 CF̂n CF̂0 0 1 2 n 1 IRR 1 IRR 1 IRR n CF̂t 0 t t 0 1 IRR Comparison of the NPV and IRR Methods NPV profile is a graph (curve) showing the relationship between a project’s NPV and various discount rates (required rates of return) IRR is at the point where the NPV profile crosses the X axis NPVs and the Required Rate of Return Crossover rate the discount rate at which the NPV profiles of two projects cross and, thus, at which the project’s NPVs are equal Independent Projects NPV and IRR will both lead to the same decision if a project’s NPV is positive, its IRR will exceed k, while if NPV is negative, k will exceed the IRR Mutually Exclusive Projects If NPV profiles cross, NPV and IRR decisions may conflict depending on discount rate selected project size differences timing differences reinvestment rate may not match IRR NPV method is preferred Multiple IRRs A project can have two or more IRRs unconventional cash flow pattern large outflow during or at the end of its life NPV profile is required Conclusions on the Capital Budgeting Decision Methods Payback and discounted payback indicate risk and liquidity of a project NPV gives a direct measure of the dollar benefit to the shareholders IRR provides information about a project’s “safety margin” IRR reinvestment assumption may be unrealistic Watch out for multiple IRRs Incorporating Risk in Capital Budgeting Analysis Stand-alone risk the risk an asset would have if it were a firm’s only asset measured by the variability of the asset’s expected returns Incorporating Risk in Capital Budgeting Analysis Scenario analysis a risk analysis technique in which “good” and “bad” sets of financial circumstances are compared with a most likely, or bestcase situation Incorporating Risk in Capital Budgeting Analysis Worst-case scenario an analysis in which all of the input variables are set at their worst reasonably forecasted values Incorporating Risk in Capital Budgeting Analysis Best-case scenario an analysis in which all of the input variables are set at their best reasonably forecasted values Incorporating Risk in Capital Budgeting Analysis Base case an analysis in which all of the input variables are set at their most likely values Incorporating Risk in Capital Budgeting Analysis Corporate (within-firm) risk risk not considering the effects of stockholders’ diversification measured by a project’s effect on the firm’s earnings variability Incorporating Risk in Capital Budgeting Analysis Beta (market) risk that part of a project’s risk that cannot be eliminated by diversification measured by the project’s beta coefficient Corporate (Within-Firm) Risk Diversification (risk reduction) as long as assets are not perfectly positively correlated some diversification can be achieved adding projects can help reduce corporate risk Beta (or Market) Risk Project required rate of return, kproj the risk adjusted required rate of return for an individual project kproj = kRF + (kM - kRF) proj Beta (or Market) Risk Pure play method estimating beta of a project using firms whose only business is the product in question to approximate its own project’s beta How Project Risk is Considered in Capital Budgeting Decisions Risk-adjusted discount rate required rate of return that applies to a particularly risky stream of income equal to the risk-free rate of interest plus a risk premium appropriate for the level of risk attached to a particular project’s income stream Capital Rationing A situation in which a constraint is placed on the total size of the firm’s capital investment Multinational Capital Budgeting Repatriation of earnings process of sending cash flows from a foreign subsidiary back to the parent company Multinational Capital Budgeting Exchange rate risk uncertainty associated with the price at which the currency from one country can be converted into the currency of another country Multinational Capital Budgeting Political risk the risk of expropriation of a foreign subsidiary’s assets by the host country, or of unanticipated restrictions on cash flows to the parent company Capital Structure and Dividend Policy Decisions Chapter 14 Capital Structure The combination of debt and equity used to finance a firm Equity Debt Equity Equity Debt Equity Equity Debt Equity Equity Debt Debt Equity Equity Debt Debt Equity Target Capital Structure The optimal mix of debt, preferred stock, and common equity with which the firm plans to finance its investments May change over time Trade-off between risk and return to achieve goal of maximizing the price of the stock Factors Influence Capital Structure Decisions 1. Firm’s business risk 2. Firm’s tax position 3. Financial flexibility 4. Managerial attitude Business Risk The risk associated with projections of a firm’s future return on assets (ROA) or return on equity (ROE) if the firm uses no debt Business Risk Depends on several factors 1. Sales variability - volume and price 2. Input price variability 3. Ability to adjust output prices 4. The extent to which costs are fixed (operating leverage) Financial Risk The portion of stockholder’s risk, over and above basic business risk, resulting from the manner in which the firm is financed Financial risk results from using financial leverage Financial Leverage The extent to which fixed-income securities (debt and preferred stock) are used in a firm’s capital structure Determining the Optimal Capital Structure Maximize the price of the firm’s stock Changes in use of debt will cause changes in earnings per share, and thus, in the stock price Cost of debt varies with capital structure Financial leverage increases risk Determining the Optimal Capital Structure EPS indifference analysis the level of sales at which EPS will be the same whether the firm uses debt or common stock financing at lower sales, EPS is higher with stock financing at higher sales, EPS favors debt financing The Effect of Capital Structure on Stock Prices and the Cost of Capital Maximizing EPS is not the same as maximizing stock price Stock risk (Beta) increases with debt Liquidity and Capital Structure Difficulties with analysis 1. Impossible to determine exactly how either P/E ratios or equity capitalization rates (ks values) are affected by different degrees of financial leverage Liquidity and Capital Structure Difficulties with analysis 2. Managers may be more or less conservative than the average stockholder, so management may set a different target capital structure than the one that would maximize the stock price Liquidity and Capital Structure Difficulties with analysis 3. Managers of large firms have a responsibility to provide continuous service and must refrain from using leverage to the point where the firm’s long-run viability is endangered Liquidity and Capital Structure Financial strength indicators Times-interest-earned (TIE) ratio a ratio that measures the firm’s ability to meet its annual interest obligations calculated by dividing earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) by interest charges Capital Structure Theory 1. Tax benefit/bankruptcy cost trade-off theory 2. Signaling theory Trade-Off Theory 1. Interest is tax-deductible expense, therefore less expensive than common or preferred stock Trade-Off Theory 2. Interest rates rise as debt/assets ratio increases; tax rates fall at high debt levels; probability of bankruptcy increases as debt/assets ratio increases Trade-Off Theory 3. Threshold debt level below which the effects in point (2) are immaterial, but beyond this point the higher interest rates reduce the tax benefits and even further the bankruptcy costs lower the value of the stock Trade-Off Theory 4. Theory and empirical evidence support these ideas, but the points cannot be identified precisely Trade-Off Theory 5. Many large, successful firms use much less debt than the theory suggests-leading to the development of signaling theory Signaling Theory Symmetric information investors and managers have identical information about the firm’s prospects Signaling Theory Asymmetric information managers have better information about their firm’s prospects than do outside investors Signaling Theory Signal an action taken by a firm’s management that provides clues to investors about how management views the firm’s prospects Signaling Theory Reserve borrowing capacity the ability to borrow money at a reasonable cost when good investment opportunities arise firms often use less debt than “optimal” to ensure that they can obtain debt capital later if it is needed Variations in Capital Structures among Firms Wide variations in use of financial leverage among industries and firms within an industry TIE measures how safe the debt is percentage of debt interest rate on debt company’s profitability Dividend Policy Dividends payments made to stockholders from the firm’s earnings, whether those earnings were generated in the current period or in previous periods Dividend Policy Dividends affect capital structure retaining earnings increases common equity relative to debt financing with retained earnings is cheaper than issuing new common equity Dividend Policy and Stock Value Dividend irrelevance theory theory that a firm’s dividend policy has no effect on either its value or its cost of capital investors value dividends and capital gains equally Dividend Policy and Stock Value Optimal dividend policy the dividend policy that strikes a balance between current dividends and future growth and maximizes the firm’s stock price Dividend Policy and Stock Value Dividend relevance theory the value of a firm is affected by its dividend policy the optimal dividend policy is the one that maximizes the firm’s value Investors and Dividend Policy Information content (Signaling) Signaling hypothesis says that investors regard dividend changes as signals of management’s earnings forecasts Investors and Dividend Policy Clientele effect the tendency of a firm to attract the type of investor who likes its dividend policy Investors and Dividend Policy Free cash flow hypothesis all else equal, firms that pay dividends from cash flows that cannot be reinvested in positive net present value projects (free cash flows) have higher values than firms that retain free cash flows Dividend Policy in Practice Types of dividend payments Residual dividend policy a policy in which the dividend paid is set equal to the earnings minus the amount of retained earnings necessary to finance the firm’s optimal capital budget Dividend Policy in Practice Types of dividend payments Stable, predictable dividend policy payment of a specific dollar dividend each year, or periodically increase the dividend at a constant rate the annual dividend is fairly predictable by investors Dividend Policy in Practice Types of dividend payments Constant payout ratio percentage of earnings, such as 50% must watch out for reductions not to signal permanent decline in earnings Dividend Policy in Practice Payment procedures Declaration date date on which a firm’s board of directors issues a statement declaring a dividend Dividend Policy in Practice Payment procedures Holder-of-record date the date on which the company opens the ownership books to determine who will receive the dividend Dividend Policy in Practice Payment procedures Ex-dividend date the date on which the right to the next dividend no longer accompanies a stock usually two business days prior to the holder-of-record date Dividend Policy in Practice Payment procedures Payment date the date on which the company actually mails the dividend checks Dividend Policy in Practice Dividend reinvestment plans -DRIPs Dividend Policy in Practice Dividend reinvestment plans -DRIPs a plan that enables a stockholder to automatically reinvest dividends received back into the stock of the paying firm can either repurchase existing shares or involve newly issued shares Factors Influencing Dividend Policy 1. Constraints on dividend payments debt contract restrictions cannot exceed “retained earnings” cash availability IRS restrictions on improperly accumulated retained earnings Factors Influencing Dividend Policy 2. Investment opportunities large capital budgeting projects affect dividend-payout ratios Factors Influencing Dividend Policy 2. Investment opportunities large capital budgeting projects affect dividend-payout ratios 3. Alternative sources of capital flotation costs increasing capital costs ownership dilution Capital Structures and Dividend Policies Around the World Companies in Italy and Japan use more debt than companies in the United States or Canada, but companies in the United Kingdom use less than any of these Different accounting practices make comparisons difficult Gap has narrowed in recent years Dividend-payout ratios vary greatly also Capital Structures and Dividend Policies Around the World Logical analysis would indicate that: 1. Tax codes generally favor use of debt in developed countries 2. In countries where capital gains are not taxed, investors should show a preference for stocks compared with countries that have capital gains taxes 3. Investor preferences should lead to relatively low equity capital costs in those countries that do not tax capital gains Reality does not match these conclusions Capital Structures and Dividend Policies Around the World What about risk, especially bankruptcy costs? Foreign banks are closely linked to corporations that borrow from them, and have substantial influence over the management of the debtor firms Equity monitoring costs are comparatively low in the United States These indicate that U.S. firms should have more equity and less debt than firms in countries such as Japan and Germany Working Capital Management Chapter 15 Working Capital Terminology Working capital management the management of short-term assets (investments) and liabilities (financing sources) Working Capital Terminology Working capital a firm’s investment in short-term assets cash marketable securities inventory accounts receivable Working Capital Terminology Net working capital Current assets minus current liabilities the amount of current assets financed by long-term liabilities Working Capital Terminology Working capital policy target levels for each current asset account how current assets will be financed Working Capital Terminology Working capital only includes current liabilities that are specifically used to finance current assets Working Capital Terminology Working capital does not include current liabilities that may be due in the current period if they are due from long-term capital decisions, even though these must be considered when assessing the firm’s ability to meet its current obligations Working Capital Terminology Not working capital: current maturities of long-term debt financing associated with a construction program that will be funded with the proceeds of a long-term security issue after the project is completed use of short-term debt to finance fixed assets The Requirement for External Working Capital Financing Seasonal variations Business cycles Expansion requires more working capital The Cash Conversion Cycle The length of time from the payment for the purchase of raw materials to manufacture a product until the collection of accounts receivable associated with the sale of the product The Cash Conversion Cycle 1. The inventory conversion period length of time required to convert materials into finished goods and then to sell those goods the amount of time the product remains in inventory in various stages of completion The Cash Conversion Cycle 1. The inventory conversion period Inve ntory Inve ntory Inve ntory conversion Cost of goods Annual costof goods sold period 360 sold per day The Cash Conversion Cycle 2. The receivables collection period average length of time required to convert the firm’s receivables into cash also called days sales outstanding (DSO) The Cash Conversion Cycle Receivables Receivables Receivables collectionperiod Averagedaily credit sales Annual credit sales 360 The Cash Conversion Cycle 3. The payables deferral period average length of time between the purchase of raw materials and labor and the payment of cash for them Payables Accounts payable Accounts payable defe rral Cre dit purchases per day Cost of goods sold period 360 The Cash Conversion Cycle 4. The cash conversion cycle net the three periods average length of time a dollar is tied up in current assets Cash Inventory Receivables Payables conversion = conversion + collection _ deferral cycle period period period Working Capital Investment and Financing Policies Two basic questions: 1. What is the appropriate level for current assets, both in total and by specific accounts? 2. How should current assets be financed? Alternative Current Asset Investment Policies Relaxed current asset investment policy relatively large amounts of cash and marketable securities and inventories are carried and sales are stimulated by a liberal credit policy that results in a high level of receivables Alternative Current Asset Investment Policies Restricted current asset investment policy holdings of cash and marketable securities and inventories are minimized Alternative Current Asset Investment Policies Moderate current asset investment policy a policy that is between the relaxed and restricted policies Current Assets Permanent current asset current asset balances that do not change due to seasonal or economic conditions these balances exist even at the trough of a firm’s business cycle Current Assets Permanent current asset Permanent current assets Current Assets Temporary current asset current assets that fluctuate with seasonal or economic variations in a firm’s business Current Assets Temporary current asset Temporary current assets Alternative Current Asset Financing Policies Maturity matching, or “self-liquidating” approach a financing policy that matches asset and liability maturities this would be considered a moderate current asset financing policy Alternative Current Asset Financing Policies Aggressive approach a policy where all of the fixed assets of a firm are financed with long-term capital, but some of the firm’s permanent current assets are financed with short-term nonspontaneous sources of funds Alternative Current Asset Financing Policies Conservative approach a policy where all of the fixed assets, all of the permanent current assets, and some of the temporary current assets of a firm are financed with long-term capital Advantages and Disadvantages of Short-Term Financing Speed a short-term loan can be obtained much faster than long-term credit Flexibility for cyclical needs, avoid long-term debt cost of issuing long-term debt is higher penalties for payoff prior to maturity restrictive covenants Advantages and Disadvantages of Short-Term Financing Cost of long-term versus short-term debt yield curve is generally upward sloping short term interest rates are generally lower than long-term rates Advantages and Disadvantages of Short-Term Financing Risk of long-term versus short-term debt short-term debt subjects the firm to more risk than long-term debt short-term interest expenses fluctuate firm may not be able to repay short-term debt, thus might be forced into bankruptcy Short-Term Credit Any liability originally scheduled for repayment within one year Sources of Short-Term Financing Accruals continually recurring short-term liabilities liabilities such as wages and taxes that increase spontaneously with operations Accounts payable (trade credit) credit created when one firm buys on credit from another firm Sources of Short-Term Financing Short-term bank loans maturity typically 90 days promissory note specifies terms and conditions amount, interest rate, repayment schedule, collateral, and any other agreements Sources of Short-Term Financing Short-term bank loans (cont.) compensating balances of 10 to 20 percent may be required to be maintained in a checking account line of credit may be arranged specified maximum amount of funds available Sources of Short-Term Financing Short-term bank loans (cont.) revolving credit agreement line of credit where funds are committed, or guaranteed commitment fee fee charged on the unused balance of a revolving credit agreement Sources of Short-Term Financing Commercial paper unsecured short-term promissory notes issued by large, financially sound firms to raise funds Sources of Short-Term Financing Secured loans loan backed by collateral for short-term loans, the collateral is often either inventory or receivables factoring is the sale of receivables the lender may seek recourse (payment) from the borrowing firm for uncollectible receivables used to secure a loan Computing the Cost of Short-Term Credit Interest rate = Dollar cost of borrowing Amount of usable funds m Interest rate Effective 1.0 EAR 1 annual rate per period Annual Inte re strate m i SIMPLE APR pe rce ntagerate pe r pe riod Computing the Cost of Short-Term Credit Discount interest loan a loan in which the interest, which is calculated on the amount borrowed (principal), is paid at the beginning of the loan period interest is paid in advance Managing Cash and Marketable Securities Cash management goal of minimizing the amount of cash the firm must hold for use in conducting its normal business activities, but sufficient to: pay suppliers maintain its credit rating meet unexpected cash needs Firms Hold Cash For: 1. Transaction balance cash balance necessary for day-to-day operations the balance associated with routine payments and collections 2. Compensating balance deposit to meet bank loan requirements Firms Hold Cash For: 3. Precautionary balance cash balance held in reserve for unforeseen fluctuations in cash flows access to line of credit can reduce the need for precautionary balances 4. Speculative balance cash balance that is held to enable the firm to take advantage of any bargain purchases that might arise easy access to borrowed funds can reduce the need for speculative balances Cash Management Techniques Cash forecasts predict the timing of cash flows Synchronized cash flows cash inflows coincide with cash outflows, permitting a firm to hold low transaction balances Cash Management Techniques Float the difference between the balance shown in a checkbook and the balance on the bank’s records Disbursement float the value of checks that have been written and disbursed but that have not fully cleared through the banking system and thus have not been deducted from the account on which they were written Cash Management Techniques Collection float the amount of checks that have been received and deposited but that have not yet been credited to the account in which they were deposited, because they have not cleared through the banking system Cash Management Techniques Net float the difference between disbursement float and collection float the difference between the balance shown in the checkbook and the balance shown on the bank’s books Cash Management Techniques Acceleration of receipts lockbox arrangement reduce float by having payments sent to post office boxes located near customers – faster mail delivery – faster check clearing within the same Federal Reserve district Cash Management Techniques Acceleration of receipts preauthorized debit system allows a customer’s bank to periodically transfer funds from that customer’s account to a selling firm’s bank account for the payment of bills Cash Management Techniques Acceleration of receipts concentration banking a technique used to move funds from many bank accounts to a more central cash pool in order to more effectively manage cash Cash Management Techniques Disbursement control centralized disbursement system more control, but can delay payments Cash Management Techniques Disbursement control centralized disbursement system more control, but can delay payments zero-balance account (ZBA) special account used for disbursements that has a balance of zero when there is no disbursement activity Cash Management Techniques Disbursement control controlled disbursement accounts (CDA) – checking accounts in which funds are not deposited until checks are presented for payment, usually on a daily basis Cash Management Techniques Marketable securities securities that can be sold on short notice without loss of principal or original investment substitute for cash balances temporary investment – finance seasonal or cyclical operations – amass funds to meet financial requirements in the near future Credit Management Credit policy a set of decisions that include a firm’s credit standards, credit terms, methods used to collect credit accounts, and credit monitoring procedures Credit Management Credit standards standards that indicate the minimum financial strength a customer must have to be granted credit Credit Management Terms of credit the payment conditions offered to credit customers length of credit period and any cash discounts offered Credit Management Credit period the length of time for which credit is granted after that time, the credit account is considered delinquent Credit Management Cash discount a reduction in the invoice price of goods offered by the seller to encourage early payment Credit Management Collection policy the procedures followed by a firm to collect its accounts receivables Credit Management Receivables monitoring the process of evaluating the credit policy to determine if a shift in the customers’ payment patterns occurs Credit Management Receivables monitoring 1. Days sales outstanding (DSO) the average length of time required to collect accounts receivable also called the average collection period Credit Management Receivables monitoring 2. Aging schedule report showing how long accounts receivable have been outstanding the report divides receivables into specified periods, which provides information about the proportion of receivables that is current and the proportion that is past due for given lengths of time Aging Schedule Age of Account (in days) 0-30 31-60 61-90 Over 90 Net Amount Outstanding $ 72,000 90,000 10,800 7,200 $180,000 Fraction of Total Receivables Average Days 40% 50% 6% 4% 100% 18 55 77 97 DSO = 0.40 (18 days) + 0.50 (55 days) + 0.06 (77 days) + 0.04 (97 days) = 43.2 days Credit Management Analyzing proposed changes in credit policy Use NPV analysis the same as for capital budgeting analysis (Chapter 13) Timing of the cash inflows and cash outflows is important to the analysis Inventory Management Raw materials inventories purchased from suppliers that will ultimately be transformed into finished goods Work in-process inventory in various stages of completion Inventory Management Finished goods inventories that have completed the production process and are ready for sale Optimal inventory level sustain operations at the lowest possible cost Inventory Management Stockout when a firm runs out of inventory and customers arrive to purchase the product Inventory Management Inventory costs carrying costs storage, insurance, use of funds, depreciation, etc… ordering costs costs of placing an order the cost of each order is generally fixed regardless of the average size of inventory Inventory Management Total inventory costs (TIC) = Total carrying costs + Total ordering costs Carrying cost Ave rageunits Cost pe r Numbe r of pe r unit in inve ntory orde r orde rs C PP Q 2 O T Q Inventory Management Economic order quantity (EOQ) the optimal quantity that should be ordered it is the quantity that will minimize the total inventory costs Inventory Management EOQ model formula for determining the order quantity that will minimize total inventory costs 2O T EOQ C PP Inventory Management EOQ model extensions reorder point the level of inventory at which an order should be placed Inventory Management EOQ model extensions reorder point the level of inventory at which an order should be placed safety stocks additional inventory carried to guard against changes in sales rates or production/shipping delays Inventory Management EOQ model extensions quantity discount a discount from the purchase price offered for inventory ordered in large quantities seasonal adjustments EOQ computed separately for each season to account for sales variations Inventory Management Inventory control systems red-line method an inventory control procedure in which a red line is drawn around the inside of an inventory-stocked bin to indicate the reorder point level Inventory Management Inventory control systems computerized inventory control system a system of inventory control in which a computer is used to determine reorder points and to adjust inventory balances Inventory Management Inventory control systems just-in-time system a system of inventory control in which a manufacturer coordinates production with suppliers so that raw materials or components arrive just as they are needed in the production process Inventory Management Inventory control systems out-sourcing the practice of purchasing components rather than making them in-house Multinational Working Capital Management Cash management speed up collections and slow down disbursements shift cash as rapidly as possible to those areas where it is needed put temporary cash balances to work earning positive returns Multinational Working Capital Management Credit management credit policy is more important risk of default political and legal collection constraints exchange rate changes between sale and time receivable is collected Multinational Working Capital Management Inventory management concentrate inventory or distribute ? costs versus distribution schedules exchange rates affect inventory threat of expropriation tax effects Investment Concepts Chapter 16 Investment Concepts Investors individuals who purchase investments with current savings in anticipation of relatively stable growth on average, or in the long term Investment Concepts Speculators individuals who search for mispriced securities in an effort to earn abnormal returns Investment Concepts Speculators gamble on whether the prices of financial assets believed to be mispriced will adjust accordingly in the market The Investment Process Investment objectives 1. Retirement planning The Investment Process Investment objectives 2. Supplement current income The Investment Process Investment objectives 3. Shelter current income from taxes The Investment Process Investment objectives 4. Achieve future goals The Investment Process Income securities preferred stock corporate bonds steady dividend or interest payments The Investment Process Investor’s attitude toward risk risk tolerance level an investor’s ability and willingness to tolerate, or accept, risk Implementation to Achieve Investment Objectives Transaction costs the costs associated with trading securities, which include the costs of time, effort, and phone calls, as well as brokerage commissions that are incurred Implementation to Achieve Investment Objectives Investment portfolio a combination of investment instruments Stock Bond Real Estate Implementation to Achieve Investment Objectives Asset allocation the proportion of funds invested in various categories of assets, such as money market instruments, long-term debt, stocks, and real estate Implementation to Achieve Investment Objectives Monitoring the investment positions to make sure goals are met to adjust to changing economic and legal conditions to include new investment instruments Investment Alternatives Risk tolerance Time frame Securities Transactions Brokerage firms versus financial intermediaries broker agent (middleman) who helps investors trade financial instruments such as stocks, bonds, and derivatives investors directly provide funds to users of those funds Securities Transactions Brokerage firms versus financial intermediaries financial intermediaries banks and S&Ls manufacture financial products such as mortgages, automobile loans, NOW accounts, or pension funds allow savers to indirectly provide funds to borrowers Securities Transactions Brokerage firms full-service brokerage firm offers a variety of services to its clients, including research information, monthly publications that contain investment recommendations, advisory services, etc... Securities Transactions Brokerage firms discount brokerage firm offers clients only the basic services associated with trading securities trade execution and related reporting requirements Securities Transactions Trading securities trading quantities round lots – multiples of 100 shares odd lots – trades with shares that are not in multiples of 100 Securities Transactions Trading securities types of orders market order – an order to execute a transaction at the best price available when the transaction reaches the market stop order – an order that specifies the price at which an order to buy or sell at the market price (a market order) is initiated Securities Transactions Trading securities types of orders limit order – an order to buy or sell a stock at no worse than a specified price day order (DO) – instruction to cancel an order if the price conditions are not met by the end of the trading day Securities Transactions Trading securities types of orders good ‘til cancelled (GTC) – indicates an order is active until the price limitations are met or until the investor cancels it fill or kill order – instructs the broker to cancel the order if it cannot be executed immediately Securities Transactions Trading securities evidence of ownership physical possession of shares registered in your name brokerage firm holds shares in street name (registered to the brokerage firm) Securities Transactions Trading securities security insurance provided by most brokerage firms SIPC limit of $500,000 additional limits from private organizations Investment Information Value Line Investment Survey Moody’s Investment Services Standard and Poor’s New York Times The Wall Street Journal Investment Information Barron’s Investor’s Business Daily Business Week Forbes Fortune Money Investment Information Stock Quotes Investment Information Bond Quotes Investment Information Treasuries Quotes Computing Investment Returns Individual security Dollar return Income Ending value - Beginning value received of investment of investment INC P1 - P0 Computing Investment Returns Holding period return (HPR) the return earned over the period of time an investment is held Ending value - Beginning value Income Rate of of inve stment of inve stment k Beginning value of inve stment return INC P1 - P0 Holding period P0 return (HPR) Computing Investment Returns Dividend yield the part of the total return associated with the dividends paid by the firm computed by dividing the amount of dividends paid by the stock price Capital gain (loss) change in the market value of a security Computing Investment Returns Annualized rate of return INC P1 - P0 360 k P0 T Computing Investment Returns Simple arithmetic average return computed by summing each return and then dividing by the number of returns does not consider compounding Computing Investment Returns Simple arithmetic average return k1 k 2 k N KA N N k t 1 N t Computing Investment Returns Geometric average return computed by taking the nth root of the growth multiple and subtracting 1.0 takes into account compounding Computing Investment Returns Geometric average return K G 1 k 1 1 k 2 1 k N 1 N N 1 k t t 1 1.0 1 N 1.0 Computing Investment Returns Computing the return on a portfolio Value of Value of Value of Security 1 Security 2 Security N k 1 k 2 k N kp Portfolio Portfolio Portfolio value value value w 1k1 n w jk j j1 w 1k1 wnkn Indexes Measuring Market Returns Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 30 largest industrial firms in U. S. Standard & Poor’s family of indexes S&P 500, S&P 400, S&P Industrials Exchange indexes NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ Russell 3,000 Wilshire 5,000 Indexes Measuring Market Returns Market capitalization the total market value of a firm’s stock computed by multiplying the number of shares outstanding by the market price per share Indexes Measuring Market Returns Bull market a rising stock market Bear market a falling stock market Alternative Investment Strategies Buy-and-hold strategy strategy allowing investors to purchase securities with the intent to hold them for a long period, perhaps a number of years Alternative Investment Strategies Margin trading type of trade that allows an investor to borrow from his or her broker some portion of the funds needed to purchase an investment Alternative Investment Strategies Margin requirement the minimum percent of the total purchase price an investor must have to buy stock (or other investments) on margin Alternative Investment Strategies Hypothecation agreement assigns securities as collateral for a margin loan Alternative Investment Strategies Broker loan rate the rate charged by brokers to borrow funds for margin trading Alternative Investment Strategies Actual margin the percentage of investor’s equity must meet the margin requirement when the stock is purchased Alternative Investment Strategies Actual margin Investor's equity Market value of investment Price per Amount # shares share borowed Price per # shares share Alternative Investment Strategies Margin call a call from the broker to add more funds to a margined account Maintenance margin the lowest actual margin the broker will permit margined investors to have at any time Alternative Investment Strategies Short selling type of trade that allows an investor to borrow the stock of another investor and then sell it, but with a promise to replace the stock at a later date cannot sell short on a downtick Alternative Investment Strategies Downtick a decrease in price from one trade to another Alternative Investment Strategies Uptick occurs when the price of the most recent trade is higher than the previous trade Alternative Investment Strategies Zero-plus tick occurs when the price of the latest trade equals the price of the previous trade, but exceeds the price from one trade earlier Shorting against the box occurs when an investor short sells a stock he or she also owns refers to having the securities in a strong, or safe deposit, box Security Valuation and Selection Chapter 17 Fundamental Analysis versus Technical Analysis Fundamental analysis the practice of evaluating the information contained in financial statements, industry reports, and economic factors to determine the intrinsic value of a firm Fundamental Analysis versus Technical Analysis Intrinsic value the “true” or economic, value of a firm Fundamental Analysis versus Technical Analysis Fundamentalist analysts who utilize analysis in an attempt to forecast future stock price movements Fundamental Analysis versus Technical Analysis Technical analysis examination of supply and demand for securities to determine trends in price movements of stocks or financial instruments Fundamental Analysis versus Technical Analysis Technicians the term given to analysts who examine stocks and financial markets using technical analysis Economic Analysis Forecasting business cycles to determine when to expect changes in the business cycle, or the direction in which aggregate economic activity is moving Economic Analysis Business cycle the movement in aggregate economic activity as measured by the gross domestic product (GDP) Economic Analysis Expansion increasing economic activity Economic Analysis Contraction decreasing economic activity Economic Analysis Gross Domestic Product (GDP) a measure of all of the goods and services produced in the economy during a specified time period Economic Analysis Recession two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, or decline, in the GDP Economic Analysis Economic Analysis Economic indicators Leading economic indicators economic measures that tend to move prior to, or precede, movements in the business cycle Economic Analysis Economic indicators Lagging economic indicators economic measures that tend to move after, or follow, movements in the general economy (business cycles) Economic Analysis Economic indicators Coincident indicators economic measures that tend to mirror, or move at the same time as, business cycles Business Cycles Business Cycles - Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy Monetary Policy the means by which the Federal Reserve influences economic conditions by managing the nation’s money supply Business Cycles - Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy Fiscal Policy Government spending, which is primarily supported by the government’s ability to tax individuals and businesses Business Cycles - Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy Deficit spending situation that occurs when the government spends more than it collects in taxes Industry Analysis Cyclical industries industries that tend to be directly related to business cycles such that they perform best during expansions and worst during contractions Industry Analysis Defensive, or countercyclical, industries industries that tend to perform best when the economy is in a contraction or recession, but are generally the poorest performers in expanding economies Industry Analysis Industry life cycle the various phases of an industry with respect to its growth in sales and its competitive conditions Industry Life Cycle Industry Sales Mature Expansion (Growth) Introductory Life-Cycle Evaluating the Firm’s Financial Position Financial statement analysis comparison to other similar firms forecast direction for future predict earnings and dividends risk evaluation Stock Valuation Techniques Dividend discount models (DDM) a model that utilizes the discounted cash flow principle to value common stock value is represented by the present value of the dividends expected to be received from investing in the stock Stock Valuation Techniques Dividend discount models (DDM) Value of stock Vs P̂0 PV of expected future dividends D̂1 1 k s 1 t 1 D̂ 2 1 k s D̂ t 1 k s t 2 D̂ 1 k s Stock Valuation Techniques Valuation using P/E ratios ratio computed by dividing the current market price per share, P0, by the earnings per share, EPS0 Stock Valuation Techniques Evaluation using the economic value added (EVA) approach method used to evaluate if the earnings generated by a firm are sufficient to compensate the suppliers of funds - both the bondholders and the stockholders Stock Valuation Techniques Evaluation using the economic value added (EVA) approach Invested EVA IRR - WACC capital Invested EBIT 1 - T WACC capital Economic Value Added (EVA) Changing the capital structure can change value because the WACC is affected Increasing the efficiency of the firm through reductions in operating expenses or increases in revenue will increase operating income and thus increase value Technical Analysis Charting - using charts and graphs Bar chart a graph that indicates the high, low, and closing price movements for a stock during a specified period Technical Analysis Charting - using charts and graphs Trend line a line that indicates the direction of the stock price movements it is drawn so that it touches either the high prices or the low prices for some of the trading days Technical Analysis Charting - using charts and graphs Trend line penetration the point at which the trading line crosses the trend line Technical Analysis Technical Analysis Measures and indicators used by technical analysts The Dow Theory a technique used to predict reversals in market patterns by examining the movements of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average Technical Analysis Measures and indicators used by technical analysts Moving averages stock price averages for a fixed time frame, say 100 days, computed for a particular period of time Technical Analysis Measures and indicators used by technical analysts Technical indicators measures used by technical analysts to forecast future movements in stock prices Technical Analysis Measures and indicators used by technical analysts Market breadth indicators measure the trading volume and the range of trading that takes place in the market Technical Analysis Measures and indicators used by technical analysts Advance/decline line a graph that depicts the results computing the difference between the number of advancing stocks and the number of declining stocks over some time period Technical Analysis Measures and indicators used by technical analysts Sentiment indicators technical indicators that are used to monitor the “mood” or psychology of the market Stock Selection Criteria Growth stocks stocks of firms that have many positive net present value opportunities in general, these firms exhibit sales and earnings growth that significantly exceed the industry averages Stock Selection Criteria Value stocks stocks of firms that are mispriced, especially those that are undervalued $1.99 Investment Selection in Efficient Markets Abnormal returns returns that exceed the returns earned by investments with similar risks Weak form efficiency current market prices reflect all historical information, including any information that might be provided by examining past price movements and trading volume data Investment Selection in Efficient Markets Semistrong form efficiency current market prices reflect all publicly available information, including information contained in historical data and information contained in current financial statements Strong form efficiency current market prices reflect all information, whether it is public or private Investment Selection in Efficient Markets Even if we accept that abnormal returns cannot be earned on a consistent basis, we still need to evaluate the investments we select to ensure the risk position is appropriate and that our investment goals are being met