Caribbean Green Economy
Conference 2015
Tuesday 24 February 2015
Future Pathways
New Models of Urban Development
Professor Anthony Clayton
September 2014
80% chance will be 9.6-12.3bn in 2100
>7bn today
Implications
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By 2050 >50% of world population Asian, ~25% African.
Ten most populous countries: India, China, Nigeria, USA,
Indonesia,
Pakistan,
Brazil,
Bangladesh,
Ethiopia,
Philippines, Mexico, Congo.
By 2050 median age up from 29 to 41; about 28% (3bn) will
be over 60.
 By 2050 about 70% of world population will be in cities (up
from 50% in 2010).
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By 2100 will be 2.5–5.3bn more people than now, could be
~90% urban.
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World population will be much older, richer, urban.
On current development trajectory, levels of consumption of
energy and resources will be much higher.
Will we run out of resources?
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US National Intelligence Council projections: world
demand for food, water, and energy will grow by
35%, 40%, and 50% respectively by 2030, due to
increases
in
population
and
per
capita
consumption.
Climate change will create instability in many
regions via water and food shortages.
On current trajectory, most likely outcome is
surging demand for energy and materials from
emerging economies, potential shortages of some
key resources, then possible environmental
disaster in vulnerable regions.
Redesigning cities for the new world
Cities will:
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Become larger & more densely populated.
Generate their own power & use it much
more efficiently.
Recover and re-use water.
Produce their own food.
Recover and recycle wastes.
Use closed-loop production systems.
Be designed to eliminate commuting.
Why we need to focus on…buildings
 Buildings account for >1/3rd of world energy use and associated

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greenhouse gas emissions.
10-20% of energy is used in manufacturing and assembly.
80-90% is heating, cooling, lighting, ventilation, appliances.
It is therefore important to make buildings more efficient, so that
they are easier & cheaper to heat, cool, light and ventilate.
ZEB/EP buildings: high energy efficiency, PV etc. used to meet
demand, power storage or smart grid as back-up.
Technologies: LED/OLED lighting, absorbent wall coatings to
control humidity, efficient appliances (insulated refrigerators and
solar-powered air conditioning units) to reduce consumption.
If all buildings were ZEB could reduce global energy demand by
38%; EP would displace more.
University of Copenhagen Faculty of Science ZEB:2009
The Solar Village
Residential units, built
2008,
in
Freiburg,
Germany. Solar panels for
electricity
and
heat.
Connected to grid, no
onsite electricity storage.
Average
house
in
Germany requires 3,000
kWh pa. These houses
net export twice that. So
each house generates
revenue for occupant.
BrightFarms hydroponic greenhouse: designed to be the largest rooftop
farm in the world, 100,000 square feet of rooftop space in Brooklyn.
EDITT Tower,
Singapore (design)
Design for Geos Neighborhood in Arvada, Colorado:
308 houses. Design will reduce energy demand by
80%, solar & geothermal power will supply the rest.
Key points
 Better planning and design can reduce energy
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demand from buildings to net zero.
Smart grids can balance supply and demand.
Integrated water management reduces waste, can
also support urban farming.
Cities could therefore start to supply their own needs
for energy, food and water.
The reduction in global demand for energy could
largely resolve the problem of climate change.
The future of transport
Mercedes-Benz F015 concept vehicle
Things we won’t need any more:
• Driver’s tests and driver’s licenses.
• License plates (replaced by wifi).
• Traffic laws (including speed limits and DUI), traffic police.
• Car insurance.
• Urban transit systems (still need inter-city).
• Privately-owned vehicles (uber-call when you need one).
Thank you !