A space-based, high-resolution view of
notable changes in urban NOx pollution
around the world (2005-2014)
Bryan N. Duncan1, Lok N. Lamsal1, Anne M. Thompson1, Yasuko Yoshida1,
Zifeng Lu2, Margaret M. Hurwitz1, David G. Streets2, Kenneth E. Pickering1
1NASA
Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD USA
2Argonne National Lab, Argonne, IL USA
**Paper submitted to JGR on August 21, 2015.
OMI STM, de Bilt, Netherlands, August 31-September 2, 2015
OMI NO2 Changes for 195 Cities Around the World
NO2 (molec/cm2): 2014
Objectives & New Aspects of our Study
→ We present NO2 changes from 2005 to 2014 over a larger number (195)
of world cities and with higher spatial resolution (i.e., 0.1° latitude x 0.1°
longitude) data than in previous studies.
→ We demonstrate that the OMI data reveal spatial heterogeneity in
changes within megacities and oftentimes allow for the attribution of these
changes to large individual sources, such as industrial complexes.
→ We use independent information, where available, to provide plausible
interpretations of the OMI-observed changes.
Objectives & New Aspects of our Study
→ We identify a larger number of factors that cause the
observed changes than were considered in previous studies.
1) environmental regulations
2) economic growth
3) regional pollution transport
4) civil unrest
5) infrastructure development
Objectives & New Aspects of our Study
→ What are the broader implications of this study?
A change in NO2 columns can serve as a proxy for a change in:
1) NOx emissions & ground-level NO2 in polluted areas
2) energy consumption* (using a characteristic emission intensity, such as the amount
of NOx emitted per unit coal or gasoline combusted)
3) emissions of co-emitted pollutants and greenhouse gases* (including ones
that cannot be measured or measured adequately with current space-based technology)
*Need to take care as a recent study on China’s CO2 emissions find them to be overestimated
because of wrong assumptions on the quality of coal burned [Liu et al., 2015].
Spatial Heterogeneity in OMI NO2 Changes
Major Infrastructure Investment over OMI record
∆OMI NO2 (%): 2005-2014
The change for a megacity is not as important as the spatial
in the changes within the megacity.
Incheonheterogeneity
Free
Economic Zone &
International
Airport
Spatial Heterogeneity in OMI NO2 Changes
So what does a city trend mean?
Seoul Megacity
Europe
NO2 Changes (molecules/cm2): 2005-2014
Huh?
Europe: What recession?
Maybe it shows up with regional averages??
USA: Oil & Natural Gas Activity Areas
NO2 increases are associated with emissions from heavy machinery, trucks & extraction activities.
NO2 Changes (molec/cm2):
2005-2014
Williston Basin
NORTH DAKOTA
Permian Basin
Eagle Ford
Suomi NPP VIIRS
1) Transport of China’s Pollution Damps Emission Controls in
Japan & Korea; 2) Some Emission Controls in China
NO2 Changes (%): 2005-2014
JAPAN
1 Tokyo (-38%)
2 Nagoya (-43%)
3 Osaka (-39%)
4 Fukuoka (-26%)
5 Nagasaki (NS)
Shenyang (28%)
YANGTZE RIVER DELTA
1 Shanghai (-30%)
2 Suzhou (11%)
3 Nanjing (15%)
4 Hangzhou (NS)
Beijing (-10%)
Dalian (40%)
Tianjin (21%)
Qingdao (17%)
Seoul (-15%)
KOREA
Busan (NS)
Zhengzhou(35%)
Xi’an (39%)
4
3
CHINA
2
Wuhan (42%)
5
1
4
Fuzhou (12%)
Quanzhou (50%)
PEARL RIVER DELTA
1 Guangzhou (-44%)
2 Dongguan (-46%)
3 Shenzhen (-42%)
4 Hong Kong (-28%)
12
Taipei
(-29%)
3
4
TAIWAN
3
JAPAN
2
1
Are Chinese NOx Emissions Decreasing?
Deseasonalized NO2 Changes (%): 2005-2014
Weakening Economy and/or Emission Controls?
South Asia’s Booming Economy
GDP’s (2005→2014): Pakistan (+38%), India (+92%), & Bangladesh (+71%)
NO2 Changes (%): 2005-2014
Kabul +59%
Islamabad +47%
Lahore +53%
India has ambitious infrastructure
New Delhi NSdevelopment plans
PAKISTAN
BANGLADESH
1) city metros (e.g., Mumbai, Surat)
Coal-Burning
Power Plants
Ahmedabad NSWorld’s Largest Petrochemical & Refining Complex
Karachi
NS
(major infrastructure investment over last decade)
Surat NSMumbai-New Delhi)
Dhaka
Kolkata
2) industrial corridors (e.g.,
Mumbai NS
+27%
INDIA
Pune +11%
Hyderabad +17%
+79%
3) electricity
generation (Ultra Mega Power Project: 100,000 MW by 2020)
>100%
Bengaluru
+23%
4) city reorganization (e.g.,
Mumbai)
Chennai +25%
Middle East: Economic Boom & Civil Unrest
NO2 Changes (molec/cm2): 2005-2014
TURKEY
1.7 million
0.25 million
>7 million
Internally
SYRIA
Displaced Persons
>11 million Syrian Refugees
~22 million Syrian Population (2011)
LEBANON
1.2 million
(>20% Lebanon’s population)
IRAQ
0.63 million
JORDAN
Increased
ONG
extraction
Middle East: Economic Boom & Civil Unrest
Civil unrest begins in Syria
Lebanon
Turkey
Syria
US Occupation
ISIL Insurgency
of Iraq
in Iraq
Libyan civil unrest begins
South Africa: A Complex Source Region
Industry
Vaal
Triangle
Mining: Coal,
platinum, gold,
etc.
Metallurgy
NO2 Changes (molec/cm2): 2005-2014
Electricity
Generation
Chemical
Production
Summary
→ OMI Data
• Lots of spatial heterogeneity
• NOx sources has evolved significantly
→ TROPOMI Data
• Evolution of NOx sources is likely to persist in the coming decades
→ A Critical Need for Surface Networks/Field Missions in the Tropics/Subtropics
• World’s population > +2 billion by 2050 – mostly in tropics/subtropics (Africa)
• Large increases expected in pollutant & greenhouse gases
Paths Forward
→ Build our international connections with local scientists &
government officials who can help with validation of satellite data.
•
•
Few countries have official government documents (in English)
Accuracy of the independent data/documents (e.g., mobile NOx emissions
reported by the US EPA have recently been found to be off by a factor of 2!)
→ Targeted field missions to better validate the satellite data in
these complex and evolving source regions.
→ Explore the potential of using NO2 data to estimate changes in
other gases (i.e., climate relevance).
Extra Slides
Africa
NO2 Changes (molec/cm2): 2005-2014
Persian Gulf +
Dubai, UAE
Increase in Sahel burning?
Luanda, Angola (+75%)
decades of civil war ended in 2002
Egypt
New “Planned” Cities/Suburbs
Major Infrastructure Development
Haven’t done my homework!
I’ll speculate anyway.
Suez Canal – two-way traffic
now in 2015
New Capital - $45 billion
announced
Egypt
2015: 85 million
2035: 107 million
Cairo: 22 million
Ethiopia
2015: 99 million
2035: 151 million
Latin America
NO2 Changes (molec/cm2): 2005-2014
Deforestation Rates Decline
Latin America: Mexico City – Lots of Spatial Structure
Haven’t done my homework!
Any Spanish speakers willing to help???
Southeast Asia
Haven’t done my homework!
NO2 Changes (molec/cm2): 2005-2014
Hanoi & Haiphong
→Rapid expansion of Vietnam Singapore Industrial Parks (VSIP)