2015 Economic Outlook
Post-recession economic recovery
January 21, 2015
Kelly Cunningham
Economist, Senior Fellow
www.nusinstitute.org
Months Until Full Recovery of U.S. Jobs
Labor Participation Rate
Change in U.S. Employment by Age
130
55 years and over
125
25 to 54 years
55+ year olds:
34% of workers
in 2014
Index: Jan 2007=100
120
115
55+ year olds:
25% of workers
in 2007
110
105
100
95
90
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; National University System Institute for Policy Research.
2014
2015
Unemployment Rates
12.0%
California
United States
11.0%
SAN DIEGO
10.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
3.0%
Seasonally Adjusted
9.0%
Alternative measures of labor underutilization
2014 Annual Average
U-1: Persons unemployed 15
weeks or longer, as a percent of
the civilian labor force.
State
United States
U-2: Job losers and persons who
Nevada
completed temporary jobs, as a
percent of the civilian labor force. CALIFORNIA
Arizona
U-3: Total unemployed, as a
Oregon
percent of the civilian labor
force (this is the definition used Rhode Island
for the official unemployment
Michigan
rate).
Illinois
U-4: Total unemployed plus
New Mexico
discouraged workers.
Georgia
U-5: Includes U-4 plus all other
Mississippi
marginally attached workers.
Substate areas:
U-6: Includes U-5 plus total
employed part time for
Los Angeles County
economic reasons.
New York City
SAN DIEGO COUNTY
U-1
3.3
4.6
4.1
3.3
3.2
4.7
3.9
4.3
4.2
4.3
4.2
U-2
3.3
4.4
4.2
3.4
3.7
4.5
3.9
4.3
2.9
3.4
3.7
4.8
5.0
4.3
4.2
Measure
U-3 U-4 U-5 U-6
6.5 6.9 7.8 12.5
8.3 9.1 10.0 15.9
7.8 8.4 9.4 15.8
7.1 7.7 8.7 15.1
7.2 7.5 8.5 14.8
8.4 8.7 9.6 14.4
7.8 8.3 9.2 14.2
7.7 8.1 8.9 13.7
7.4 7.9 9.4 13.7
7.6 8.2 9.1 13.6
7.8 8.4 9.3 13.5
8.4
7.7
6.5
9.0
8.3
9.9 17.3
9.3 13.7
est 13.4
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
San Diego U-6 estimate by National University System Institute for Policy Research.
San Diego, California, U.S. Jobs
Seasonally Adjusted Index: Jan2002=1.00
Nonfarm payroll employment seasonally adjusted
1.10
1.08
1.06
1.04
1.02
1.00
SAN DIEGO
U.S.
0.98
California
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics;
California Employment Development Department.
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0.96
San Diego Gross Domestic Product
Current Dollars
$210.0
Constant 2009
Dollars
$200.0
$190.0
$180.0
$160.0
$150.0
$140.0
$130.0
$120.0
$110.0
2015f
2014e
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
$100.0
2000
Billions
$170.0
GDP
Year (Billions)
2001 $122.018
2002 $131.368
2003 $139.787
2004 $150.347
2005 $160.401
2006 $167.881
2007 $174.602
2008 $176.616
2009 $173.564
2010 $175.201
2011 $182.676
2012 $190.940
2013 $197.886
2014e $206.794
2015f $217.134
Percentage of:
Calif. U.S.
8.72% 1.15%
9.06% 1.20%
9.11% 1.21%
9.15% 1.22%
9.11% 1.23%
9.00% 1.21%
8.96% 1.21%
8.93% 1.20%
9.10% 1.20%
8.97% 1.17%
9.00% 1.18%
8.98% 1.18%
8.98% 1.18%
9.01% 1.18%
9.03% 1.18%
Constant Dollars*
S.D. Cal. U.S.
0.7% -0.3% 1.0%
5.4% 2.2% 1.8%
4.0% 3.9% 2.8%
4.7% 4.1% 3.8%
3.7% 4.0% 3.3%
1.7% 3.1% 2.7%
1.2% 1.5% 1.8%
-0.4% -0.3% -0.3%
-3.4% -4.1% -2.8%
0.01% 0.9% 2.5%
2.8% 1.7% 1.6%
2.5% 2.7% 2.3%
1.7% 2.4% 2.2%
2.4% 2.3% 2.4%
3.0% 2.8% 2.5%
*Adjusted by GDP implicit price deflator.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S.Department of Commerce;
e: estimate, f: forecast by National University Sys Inst for Policy Research
Comparison of Annual Change in GDP
5.5%
4.5%
3.5%
1.5%
0.5%
-0.5%
-1.5%
SAN DIEGO
-2.5%
California
-3.5%
United States
2015f
2014e
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
-4.5%
2001
Adjusted for Inflation
2.5%
Indicators of County Economic Recovery, 2014
$290
10) Atlanta, GA
$270
12) Miami, FL
11) Seattle, WA
$250
$230
$210
14) Detroit, MI
$190
15) Phoenix, AZ
13) Minneapolis- St.
Paul, MN-WI
$170
17) SAN DIEGO, CA
18) Denver, CO
16) San Jose, CA
$150
19) Portland, OR-WA
20) Baltimore, MD
$130
21) St. Louis, MO-IL
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
$110
2001
Billions (Constant 2009$s)
Metropolitan GDP Comparisons
$40
Government
$35
Real estate, rental,
leasing
$30
Professional, business
services
$25
$20
Retail, Wholesale
Trade
$15
Manufacturing
Construction
Health care, social
assistance
Information
$10
Finance, insurance
$5
Food services, drinking
places
Utilities
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
$0
2001
Billions (Constant 2009$s)
San Diego Industries by GDP
San Diego Industries by GDP, 2013
5) Manufacturing
8.7%
4) Retail,
wholesale trade
9.9%
6) Health care, social
7) Finance, insurance
assistance
4.0%
5.3%
8) Information
3.5%
9) Construction
3.2%
10)
Accommodation,
food services
3.0%
11) Other services
2.0%
12) Utilities
1.9%
3) Professional,
business services
15.3%
Other
7.6%
13) Education (priv)
1.0%
14) Arts, enter, rec
1.0%
2) Real estate,
rental, leasing
18.9%
1) Government
20.6%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; National University System Institute for Policy Research.
15) Transp, warehsng
1.0%
16) Natural resources
0.7%
Billions (Constant 2009$s)
Other San Diego GDP Industries
$4.5
Other services
$4.0
Food services, drinking
places
$3.5
$3.0
Utilities
$2.5
Transportation,
warehousing Accommodation
$2.0
Arts, entertainment,
recreation
$1.5
$1.0
Natural resources,
mining
$0.5
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; National University System Institute for Policy Research.
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
$0.0
San Diego Recession and Recovery
GDP
(millions)
Industry
2013
TOTAL
$197,886
Government
40,857
Real estate, rental, leasing
37,345
Professional, business services
30,286
Retail, Wholesale Trade
19,511
Manufacturing
17,236
Health care, social assistance
10,426
Finance, insurance
7,850
Information
6,986
Construction
6,428
Food services, drinking places
3,978
Other services
3,883
Utilities
3,744
Educational services
2,051
Arts, entertainment, recreation
1,999
Accommodation
1,997
Transportation, warehousing
1,969
Natural resources, mining
1,301
Change (inflation adj)
07/09 09/13 07/13
-3.8% 7.2% 3.1%
5.7% 1.0% 6.7%
-3.4% 4.8% 1.2%
7.2% 20.0% 28.7%
-15.1% 12.1% -4.8%
4.2% 7.5% 12.1%
11.8% 9.5% 22.4%
0.7% 5.2% 6.0%
-41.2% 8.7% -36.1%
-30.2% -5.2% -33.8%
-12.0% 10.7% -2.6%
-10.4% -1.4% -11.7%
16.8% 10.8% 29.4%
22.4% 15.4% 41.2%
-9.0% 12.6% 2.5%
-11.9% 8.2% -4.7%
-8.4% 1.3% -7.3%
-0.5% -2.8% -3.2%
Full and Part-Time Employment
Jobs
Change
2013
07/10 10/13 07/13
1,935,464 -4.6% 6.3% 1.4%
328,898
0.3% -2.8% -2.5%
117,145 -1.8% 2.4% 0.6%
338,776 -1.0% 6.6% 5.5%
233,180 -11.9% 8.6% -4.3%
104,486 -9.4% 3.3% -6.4%
179,772
8.9% 19.4% 30.0%
92,845
1.2% 10.7% 12.0%
30,717 -29.2% -3.3% -31.5%
88,654 -30.3% 8.8% -24.2%
121,574 -3.5% 11.9% 8.0%
114,679 -7.2% 10.2% 2.2%
7,057
6.7% -6.3% -0.1%
46,075 21.2% 13.6% 37.7%
49,884
0.0% 9.0% 9.0%
30,367 -8.0% -3.0% -10.8%
31,437 -5.1% 5.5% 0.1%
19,918
2.9% 2.6% 5.6%
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; National University System Institute for Policy Research.
San Diego Industry Employment by Quarter
1.09
1.07
1.03
1.01
0.99
0.97
Technology Sectors
0.95
Total, All Industries
0.93
Private Industry
0.91
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Qe
4Qe
Index: 1Q2008=100.0
1.05
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
e: estimate
San Diego Occupations by Average Annual Wage
and Number of Jobs, 2014
Management ($119,716)
74,650
Legal ($111,623)
10,560
Architecture, Engineering ($88,940)
39,730
Computer, Mathematical ($88,889)
45,660
Healthcare Practitioners, Technical ($88,272)
66,500
Life, Physical, Social Science ($78,904)
24,380
Business, Financial Operations ($74,659)
78,790
Education, Training, Library ($55,826)
73,100
Arts, Design, Entertain, Sports, Media ($55,300)
16,320
Construction, Extraction ($53,410)
46,150
Protective Service ($50,373)
28,310
Community, Social Services ($49,473)
17,010
Installation, Maintenance, Repair ($49,322)
45,060
Sales and Related ($40,395)
Office and Administrative Support ($38,093)
Production ($36,653)
66,620
Healthcare Support ($32,829) 30,480
Transportation, Material Moving ($32,194)
61,000
Bldg/Grounds Cleaning, Maintenance ($27,972)
43,210
Personal Care, Service ($27,297)
36,030
Farming, Fishing, Forestry ($27,191) 2,290
Food Preparation, Serving-Related ($22,440)
0
50,000
Higher Wage Jobs: 340,270
26% of Total
Middle Wage Jobs: 576,770
45% of Total
138,100
212,720
Lower Wage Jobs: 373,570
29% of Total
133,940
100,000
150,000
Number of Jobs
200,000
Net Change in San Diego Employment
Higher-wage
occupations
($35.89-$57.55)
Mid-wage
occupations
($18.32-$26.84)
-72,370 10,660
Lower-wage
occupations
2007-11 and 2011-13
($10.79-$17.63)
-20,130 17,460
-75,000 -60,000 -45,000
Source: California Employment Development Department;
National University System Institute for Policy Research.
8,410 27,390
-30,000
-15,000
0
Change 2007-2011
15,000
30,000
Change 2011-2013
Net Change by Occupation, San Diego
Lower-Wage
Occupations
Mid-Wage
Occupations
Higher-Wage
Occupations
Management
Legal
Architecture, Engineering
Computer, Mathematical
Healthcare Practitioners, Technical
Life, Physical, Social Science
Business, Financial Operations
Education, Training, Library
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, Media
Construction, Extraction
Protective Service
Community, Social Services
Installation, Maintenance, Repair
Sales and Related
Office and Administrative Support
Production
Healthcare Support
Transportation, Material Moving
Building/Grounds Cleaning, Maintenance
Personal Care, Service
Farming, Fishing, Forestry
Food Preparation, Serving-Related
Source: California Employment Development Department;
National University System Institute for Policy Research.
-32,930
-4,290 3,910
-250 80
290 4,100
3,900 5,420
4,130 5,980
-910 4,050
580
8,810
-500 -7,640
-970 -3,610
1,100
-2,610 3,010
-1,440 1,680
-130 2,040
-19,840
14,970
-5,050 -9,790
-5,960 5,710
-1,450 3,830
-8,890
2,460
-5,420 740
-1,480 1,210
-220 -690
-1,990
9,480
2007-2011
2011-2013
San Diego Median Household Income
$65,000
$63,727
$63,000
$57,000
$55,000
$63,857
$63,373
$61,382
$60,970
$61,000
$59,000
$62,901 $63,069
$59,591
Current
Dollars
Inflation $56,335
Adjusted
(2009$s)
$53,000
$51,000
$49,000
$47,000
$47,067
$45,000
2000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: American Community Survey, U.S. Bureau of Census; National University
System Institute for Policy Research.
2012
2013
San Diego Annual Population Change
55,000
45,000
35,000
25,000
15,000
5,000
-5,000
-15,000
Net Domestic Migration
Net Foreign Migration
-25,000
Natural Increase
2015f
2014e
2013
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
Source: California Department of Finance; National University System Institute for Policy Research.
2012
Total Change
-35,000
Change in San Diego Population by Age
2009-13
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
2009
3.0%
2013
2.0%
1.0%
Source: American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau; National University System Institute for Policy Research.
85+
80 - 84
75 - 79
70 - 74
65 - 69
60 - 64
55 - 59
50 - 54
45 - 49
40 - 44
35 - 39
30 - 34
25 - 29
20 - 24
15 - 19
10 - 14
5-9
Under 5
0.0%
San Diego Birth and Death Rates
19.0
Per 1,000 residents
17.0
15.0
13.0
Births
11.0
Deaths
9.0
7.0
Source: California Department of Finance; National University System Institute for Policy Research.
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
5.0
San Diego Population by Race/
Ethnicity and Age 2013
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
White
Hispanic
Asian
Black
Other
American Indian
Pacific Islander
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
0
Source: California Department of Finance; National University System Institute for Policy Research.
Proportion of median housing price to household income
8.0
Median Home Price / Median Income
7.0
6.0
SAN DIEGO
National
5.0
4.0
3.0
Source: National Association of Home Builders; National University System Institute for Policy Research.
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
2.0
Nation’s Least Affordable Housing Markets, 3rd Quarter 2014
Least
Affordable
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Housing Median
Ratio
OpporHome
Median of Home
tunity
Sales
Family Price to
Metropolitan Area
Index+
Price
Income Income
Napa, CA
10.2
$510,000 $70,300 7.25
San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA*
11.4
875,000 100,414 8.71
Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA
14.8
600,000
77,900 7.70
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA*
16.3
460,000
61,419 7.49
Salinas, CA
16.7
410,000
59,100 6.94
Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA*
17.4
579,000
83,447 6.94
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
20.9
689,000 101,900 6.76
New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ*
21.6
482,000
65,488 7.36
SAN DIEGO-CARLSBAD-SAN MARCOS, CA
23.4
437,000
72,700 6.01
Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
25.6
449,000
76,900 5.84
San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA
28.2
435,000
77,000 5.65
Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA*
29.4
517,000
88,507 5.84
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
33.2
468,000
88,700 5.28
Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, CA
37.0
446,000
72,800 6.13
Honolulu, HI
38.3
480,000
82,600 5.81
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT
41.6
410,000
83,700 4.90
Laredo, TX
44.1
147,000
39,000 3.77
Stockton, CA
44.3
258,000
58,200 4.43
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
45.6
265,000
60,700 4.37
Ocean City, NJ
46.1
334,000
73,500 4.54
National
61.8
$220,800 $63,900 3.46
*Indicates Metropolitan Divisions, all others are Metropolitan Statistical Areas. California areas are in italics .
+Share of homes sold during the quarter affordable to median income.
Source: National Association of Home Builders; National University System Institute for Policy Research.
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Seasonally Adjusted
Los Angeles CA
Washington DC
SAN DIEGO CA
San Francisco CA
Miami FL
New York NY
Boston MA
200.0
Seattle WA
Portland OR
Tampa FL
Denver CO
150.0
Phoenix AZ
Dallas TX
Minneapolis MN
Las Vegas NV
100.0
Chicago IL
Charlotte NC
Atlanta GA
50.0
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
Cleveland OH
2000
Seasonally Adjusted Index: 2000=100.0
250.0
Detroit MI
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