Dr. John Barry
School of Politics and
Institute for a Sustainable World
Queen’s University Belfast
j.barry@qub.ac.uk
Economic/financial crisis, climate change and energy
insecurity,
Opportunity to rethink both the dominance of one
way of thinking about the economy – namely neoclassical economics and the economic growth
imperative
In particular we need to end the fiction that
economics is a ‘value free zone’ and return to
conceptualising our public discourse about the
economy in terms of ‘political economy’.
Need for new economic thinking on an all island
basis, especially within the policy-making
communities of both jurisdictions
‘
Name one thing in this room that has not been made in whole or part,
or transported in whole of part without the use of oil?
The island of Ireland’s dependency on imported fossil fuels as a major
risk/vulnerability issue
Instability of price of oil - $148 a barrel in 2008, dropped back to $40
now back up to $110 – this is likely to be the pattern in the years
ahead
‘We need to leave oil before oil leaves us’, Fatih Biriol, Chief
Economist, International Energy Association
‘A planned retreat from fossil fuels’, Eamon Ryan, former Minister for
Communications, Energy and Natural Resources
ONE CUBIC MILE OF OIL
“Businesses which prepare for and take
advantage of the new energy reality will
prosper - failure to do so could be catastrophic;
We are heading towards a global oil supply
crunch and price spike;
Lack of global regulation on climate change is
creating an environment of uncertainty for
business, damaging investment;
To manage increasing energy costs and carbon
exposure businesses must reduce fossil fuel
consumption”
“A smart economy is a low-carbon economy, with sustainable
development as its ultimate aim. …We must address the situation
where there is a flow from oil consuming to oil producing nations
and plan for the eventuality where oil supplies contract rather
than expand. Those countries that reduce their dependence on oil
will have a distinct competitive advantage.”
Building Ireland’s Smart Economy: A Framework for Sustainable Economic
Renewal, Dec 2008 (Dept of An Taoiseach) , p.34
Forfas 2006 report on Ireland’s oil vulnerability.
Northern Ireland similarly highly dependent on imported fossil fuels
But....little evidence (as yet) of this being a major concern of the
governments in both jurisdictions
The challenge for the island of Ireland in the first
decades of the 21st century is to manage a
transition away from current unsustainable
development economic models
Beyond conventional economic growth/GDP
- towards socio-economic well-being , a focus on
employment and work, and a greater focus on
reducing inequalities
Beyond dependence upon imported fossil fuels
Beyond the state and the market towards a new
mixed economy of well-being in which the social
economy plays a much greater role
“The Gross National Product counts air pollution
and cigarette advertising, and ... the
destruction of the redwood and the loss of our
natural wonder in chaotic sprawl ... Yet [it]
does not allow for the health of our children,
the quality of their education, or the joy of their
play ... the beauty of our poetry or the strength
of our marriages ... it measures everything, in
short, except that which makes life
worthwhile”. Robert Kennedy, 1968
“From growth of total GNP to GNP per head to
sustainable growth;
From income growth to a more equal distribution of
income;
From absolute job creation to overall employment
rate to participation rate;
From an exclusive focus on income to a balance
between income and better provision of accessible,
affordable quality services;
From developer-led developments to planned and
sustainable communities;
From ‘survival of the fittest’ to a more egalitarian
society”
Executive summary, p.xix
“There is now an important all-island
dimension to all aspects of Government
policy. To the extent that it is
appropriate, and by agreement with the
Northern Ireland Executive, all of the
policies, programmes and initiatives in
this Action Plan will take full account
of the mutual benefits available
through North/South co-operation.
Building Ireland’s Smart Economy (2008:
27: emphasis added)
But...little sign of urgency in progressing
the greening of the island economy
“Economic growth, for so long the great engine of
progress, has, in the rich countries, largely finished
its work. Not only have measures of wellbeing
and happiness ceased to rise with economic
growth but, as affluent societies have grown richer,
there have been long-term rises in rates of anxiety,
depression and numerous other social problems.
The populations of rich countries have got to the end of
a long historical journey.
(Wilkinson and Pickett, 2009: 5-6; emphasis added)
Dominant political economic strategy in both jurisdictions
is how to ‘get back’ to the pre-crash economic model
but no fundamental rethinking of economic goals or
strategies
Republic – Smart Economy – where is it?
Northern Ireland – ‘open for business’ and the FDI
attracting, global competitiveness model
Both jurisdictions (like all industrial societies) prioritise
undifferentiated, orthodox economic growth as the
dominant policy imperative
Some very modest indicators of a ‘green new deal’?
Calls for the return to an economic model based around
‘buildings, banks and boutiques’ (Colin Hines) (i.e.
Property speculation, financial services and debt-based
consumerism)
It is worth remembering that (orthodox) economists are
asked to answer questions, not because what they say
is ‘true’ or even ‘scientific’ but simply because they are
asked.
We need to have a variety of ways of thinking about the
economy and see what answers they provide as part of
a discussion about different forms of political economy.
We don’t accept one way for the organisation of the polity
so why should it be any different with the economy?
Beyond ‘business as usual’.
More collectivisation of consumption
(if not production)?
If we’re socialising risk (NAMA, bank
bailouts etc) why not socialise other
aspects of the economy?
Transition to a sustainable, green
economy will be based on more
shared forms of consumption
The structural imperative for continuing economic growth
just to keep the economy stable under capitalism is
itself the cause of not just boom and bust cycles, but the
reason why this economic model is fundamentally
unsustainable, and manages and reproduces rather
than tackles inequality and growing disparities in life
chances and well-being
Greening ‘business as usual’ is both biophysically
impossible as well as undesirable
What would an economy look like designed by a scientist
not a conventional neo-classical economist?
‘Global warming cannot be combated merely by
making a few technical adjustments to our
modes of production and consumption, for
example by designing lower-carbon cars. We
need to profoundly rethink our model of
growth, e.g. means of transport, and hence the
whole range of policies currently being
implemented in pursuit of development. What
must therefore be envisaged as of now is
societal change’. (European Trade Union
Institute, 2009, p.7; emphasis added)
Pressing need to tackle the underlying economic model which is the
root cause of ecological degradation, the intensification of
inequality and erosion of quality of life
The island of Ireland, with its small scale, abundant renewable energy
resources, high levels of education and training, social capital and
a strong social economy, could....with clear political leadership in
both jurisdictions, become an exemplar of a green, sustainable
economy and society, one in which the focus is not ‘greening
business as usual’ and improving the resource and energy
efficiency of production and consumption, but seeking the ecoefficiency of human well-being.
Create a new macro-economics of sustainability to simultaneously
achieve high well-being with low carbon and resource use
What does public policy look like orientated towards increasing
human well-being, work and lowering resource use, rather than
undifferentiated economic growth?
The choice is ours…..
To deal with the causes of ecological destruction, rather than simply
dealing with its effects, we can expect to see a greater degree of
analysis and action around critiquing, challenging and
proposing alternatives to the underlying political economy
Coming battle between those proposing ‘sustainable development’
as part of the objectives from any Green New Deal against a
coalition of state and business interests determined to find
technological fixes for our energy hungry island economy and
to continue with ‘business as usual’
Are we using the economic and energy crises as an opportunity to
plan a transition to a more sustainable and different type of
society, and different political relations between citizens and
state, as opposed to a more resource efficient economy with no
changes in structures of governance, inequalities, well-being etc.