Financial
Stability
Report
2009:1
2-6-2009
Financial
Markets
The central banks’ balance sheets
Index, January 2000=100
400
400
350
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
0
50
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
The Riksbank
ECB
Federal Reserve
Chart 1:1
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and Bloomberg
Three-month interbank rate
relative to expected policy rate
Basis points
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
jan-07
apr-07
jul-07
okt-07
US
Chart 1:2
jan-08
apr-08
Euro area
jul-08
UK
okt-08
jan-09
apr-09
jul-09
Sweden
Source: Bloomberg
Outstanding volumes in US commercial
paper
USD, billions
900
250
800
225
700
200
600
175
500
150
400
125
aug-05
feb-06
aug-06
feb-07
aug-07
feb-08
aug-08
feb-09
Financial commercial paper (left scale)
Non-financial commercial paper (right scale)
Chart 1:3
Source: Federal Reserve
Outstanding volumes of EUR commercial
paper
USD, billions
1000
800
600
400
200
Chart 1:4
mar-09
feb-09
jan-09
dec-08
nov-08
okt-08
sep-08
aug-08
jul-08
jun-08
maj-08
apr-08
mar-08
feb-08
jan-08
0
Source: Euroclear
Ten-year government bond yields in various
countries
Per cent
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
jan-07
maj-07
Germany
Chart 1:5
sep-07
France
jan-08
Greece
maj-08
Ireland
sep-08
Spain
jan-09
maj-09
Sweden
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Swedish government bond yields
Per cent
5
4
3
2
1
0
jan-07
apr-07
jul-07
okt-07
jan-08
2 year
Chart 1:6
apr-08
5 year
jul-08
okt-08
jan-09
apr-09
jul-09
10 year
Source: Reuters EcoWin
European countries’ borrowing
requirements 2009, as a percentage of GDP
Per cent
30
25
20
15
10
5
Net borrowing
Chart 1:7
A
us
ai
n
Sp
tr
Sw ia
ed
e
G
er n
m
an
Fi y
nl
an
D
en d
Lu
m
ar
xe
k
m
bo
ur
g
N
et
It
he aly
rla
n
Po ds
rt
ug
al
G
r
Sw ee
itz ce
er
la
n
U
ni
Fr d
te
an
d
c
K
in e
gd
om
gi
um
B
el
Ire
la
nd
0
Refinancing
Total
Source: FitchRatings
Standard & Poor’s upgrades and
downgrades, per quarter
250
10
Upgrades
Downgrades
Downgrades in relation to upgrades (balance, right scale)
8
150
6
100
4
50
2
0
0
Chart 1:8
Q1-09
Q1-08
Q1-07
Q1-06
Q1-05
Q1-04
Q1-03
Q1-02
Balance
Number of changes
200
Source: Bloomberg
Credit spreads for corporate bonds in the
United States and euro area
Basis points
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
jan-07
maj-07
sep-07
AAA - euro area
Chart 1:9
jan-08
maj-08
BBB - euro area
sep-08
Baa - US
jan-09
maj-09
Aaa - US
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Credit spreads for high yield corporate
bonds in the United States and euro area
Basis points
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
jan-07
apr-07
jul-07
okt-07
jan-08
US
Chart 1:10
apr-08
jul-08
okt-08
jan-09
apr-09
jul-09
Euro area
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Global default rate, actual and
forecast
Per cent
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
Chart 1:11
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Difference between mortgage bond yields
and government bond yield with two and
five years maturity respectively
Basis points
250
200
150
100
50
0
jan-07
apr-07
jul-07
okt-07
jan-08
apr-08
5-year mortgage bond spread
Chart 1:12
jul-08
okt-08
jan-09
apr-09
jul-09
2-year mortgage bond spread
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Premiums in the CDS index
Basis points
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
jan-07
apr-07
jul-07
okt-07
jan-08
apr-08
North America - CDX
Chart 1:13
jul-08
okt-08
jan-09
apr-09
jul-09
Europe - iTraxx
Sources: EcoWin Reuters och Bloomberg
Stock market developments
Index, 28 December 2007=100
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
jan-08
apr-08
Sweden - OMXS30
Chart 1:14
jul-08
okt-08
jan-09
United States - S&P 500
apr-09
jul-09
Europe - STOXX
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Implied stock market volatility
Per cent, 10 day moving average
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Chart 1:15
United States - S&P 500
Sweden - OMX
Historical average, OMX
Europe, STOXX
Source: Bloomberg
P/E ratios
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Chart 1:16
Sweden - OMXS30
Europe - STOXX
United States - S&P 500
Historical average, OMXS30,
STOXX and S&P 500
Source: Reuters EcoWin
The monetary base in Sweden
SEK Billion
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
jan- feb- mar- apr- maj- jun08 08 08 08 08 08
jul- aug- sep- okt- nov- dec- jan- feb- mar- apr08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09
Banknotes and coins in circulation
Banks holdings of Riksbank Certificates
Chart B1
Banks deposits in the Riksbank
Source: The Riksbank
GDP in Eastern Europe
Annual percentage change
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Chart B2
Sources: The IMF and the Riksbank
GDP 2003-2007 and IMF forecast for 2009
Annual percentage change
2
0
Slovakia
Poland
GDP forecast
-2
Bulgaria
Hungary
-4
Romania
Czech
Republic
-6
Ukraine
-8
Estonia
-10
Lithuania
-12
Latvia
-14
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Average GDP growth 2003-2007
Chart B3
Sources: The IMF and the Riksbank
Exchange rates against EUR
Index, September 2008=100
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
jan-07
apr-07
jul-07
okt-07
Czech Republic
Chart B4
jan-08
apr-08
Hungary
jul-08
Poland
okt-08
Romania
jan-09
apr-09
jul-09
Ukraine
Sources: Reuters EcoWin
Exposure to Eastern Europe, as a
proportion of host country’s GDP 2008
Per cent
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Chart B5
Fr
an
ce
y
er
m
an
G
Ita
ly
Sw
itz
er
la
nd
N
et
he
rla
nd
s
re
ec
e
G
en
Sw
ed
Be
lg
iu
m
Au
st
ria
0
Sources: BIS and IMF
How has your propensity to take risk
changed compared to six months ago?
Per cent
7%
12%
Greatly
increased
28%
19%
Increased
slightly
Neither
increased nor
decreased
Decreased
slightly
34%
Chart B6
Greatly
decreased
Source: The Riksbank
How has your institution’s buffer of liquid
assets changed in relation to six months
ago?
Per cent
13%
17%
Greatly
increased
5%
Increased
slightly
17%
28%
Neither
increased nor
decreased
Decreased
slightly
Greatly
decreased
20%
Chart B7
Don’t know
Source: The Riksbank
Do you consider that the financial crisis
has peaked?
Per cent
19%
46%
Yes
No
Don't know
35%
Chart B8
Source: The Riksbank
The Swedish
household
sector
The banks' lending broken down into Swedish and
foreign households and companies, December
2008
Per cent
Foreign property
companies 8%
Swedish
households 22%
Foreign companies
excluding property
companies 27%
Swedish companies
excluding property
companies 15%
Foreign households
19%
Chart 2:1
Swedish property
companies 9%
Source: The Riksbank
Banks' loan losses, allocated by
geographical location, Q4 2008 and Q1 2009
Per cent of total loan losses
Other countries
16%
Sweden 18%
Other Nordic
countries 27%
Baltic countries
39%
Chart 2:2
Source: The Riksbank
Households' financial net wealth in relation
to disposable incomes
Per cent
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1997
Chart 2:3
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: Statistics Sweden
Households' nominal disposable incomes
and saving ratio
Annual percentage change and per cent
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
Disposable incomes
Chart 2:4
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Saving ratio
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Households' total borrowing
from credit institutions
Annual percentage change
20
15
10
5
0
-5
1991
Chart 2:5
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Source: The Riksbank
Mortgage rate, interbank rate and repo rate
Per cent
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2000
Chart 2:6
2001
2002
2003
Interbank rate
Mortgage rate - average
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Repo rate
Mortgage rate - average, new lending
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Housing equity withdrawal in Sweden, the
United Kingdom and Australia
Per cent of disposable income
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
1996
1998
2000
Sweden
Chart 2:7
2002
2004
UK
2006
2008
2010
Australia
Sources: Reserve Bank of Australia, Reuters EcoWin, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Households' debt and post tax interest
expenditures
Per cent of disposable income
200
20
160
16
120
12
80
8
40
4
0
0
83
87
91
95
Debt ratio (left scale)
Chart 2:8
99
03
07
11
Interest ratio (right scale)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Households below the margin, impaired
loans and potential loan losses
Per cent
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2004
2005
2006
Households below the margin
Chart 2:9
2007
2008
(forecast)
Impaired loans
2009
(forecast)
2010
(forecast)
Potential loan losses
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Percentage debt, financial assets and real assets
held by indebted households in different income
groups
Per cent
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Income group 1
Income group 2
Share of total debts
Chart 2:10
Income group 3
Income group 4
Share of financial assets
Income group 5
Share of real assets
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
House prices in Sweden, Stockholm,
Göteborg and Malmö regions
Index: 1986=100
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1986
1988
1990
Sweden
Chart 2:11
1992
1994
1996
Stockholm region
1998
2000
2002
Göteborg region
2004
2006
2008
2010
Malmö region
Source: Statistics Sweden
Tenant-owned apartment prices, threemonth moving average
SEK per square metre
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
Sweden
Göteborg region
Sweden excluding metropolitan areas
Chart 2:12
2006
2007
2008
Stockholm region
Malmö region
2009
2010
Source: www.maklarstatistik.se
Time to sale, sell houses and tenant-owned
apartments in Sweden
Number of days, median
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
jan-08
apr-08
jul-08
Single-family dwellings
Chart 2:13
okt-08
jan-09
apr-09
Tenant-owned apartments
Sources: Hemnet and www.maklarstatistik.se
Housing investments in relation to GDP,
seasonally-adjusted data
Per cent
10
8
6
4
2
0
1993
1995
Sweden
Chart 2:14
1997
1999
Norway
2001
Denmark
2003
Spain
2005
2007
UK
2009
USA
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Number of housing starts in relation to
population
Per cent
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
1981
1984
Sweden
Chart 2:15
1987
1990
Norway
1993
1996
Denmark
1999
UK
2002
Spain
2005
2008
USA
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Indebted households' interest ratio and
debt ratio broken down into different
income groups
Per cent
250
7
200
6
150
5
100
4
50
3
0
2
Income group 1
Income group 2
Income group 3
Debt ratio (left scale)
Chart B9
Income group 4
Income group 5
Interest ratio (right scale)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
The Swedish
corporate
sector
Current ratio in Swedish listed
companies
Per cent
200
180
160
140
120
100
dec-98 dec-99 dec-00 dec-01 dec-02 dec-03 dec-04 dec-05 dec-06 dec-07 dec-08 dec-09
Chart 2:16
Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank
Debt/equity ratio in Swedish listed
companies
Ratio
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
52
dec-98 dec-99 dec-00 dec-01 dec-02 dec-03 dec-04 dec-05 dec-06 dec-07 dec-08 dec-09
Chart 2:17
Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank
Profitability in Swedish listed
companies
Per cent
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
dec-98 dec-99 dec-00 dec-01 dec-02 dec-03 dec-04 dec-05 dec-06 dec-07 dec-08 dec-09
Chart 2:18
Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank
Interest coverage ratio in
Swedish listed companies
Ratio
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
dec-99
Chart 2:19
dec-00
dec-01
dec-02
dec-03
dec-04
dec-05
dec-06
dec-07
dec-08
dec-09
Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank
Lending rates on new loans signed
by non-financial companies
Per cent
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Chart 2:20
jun-09
dec-08
jun-08
dec-07
jun-07
dec-06
jun-06
dec-05
0
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
The number of company bankruptcies
broken down by company size
Twelve-month moving average
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
jan83
jan85
jan87
jan89
1-9 employees
Chart 2:21
jan91
jan93
jan95
jan97
10-49 employees
jan99
jan01
jan03
jan05
jan07
jan09
All companies
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Bankruptcies during and after
various crises in Sweden
Index, last month prior to beginning of crisis = 100
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
t=0
t=6
t=12
t=18
1990s crisis
Chart 2:22
t=24
IT crisis
t=30
t=36
t=42
t=48
t=54
Financial crisis
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Corporate borrowing from credit
institutions and fixed gross investment
Annual percentage change
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Chart 2:23
Corporate borrowing from credit institutions
Forecast borrowing
Gross fixed capital formation
Forecast
Source: The Riksbank
Maturity structure for outstanding
corporate bonds
SEK billion
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2009
Chart 2:24
2010
2011
Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank
Maturity structure for corporate certificates
2009
SEK billion
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
marmajapr-09
jun-09 jul-09
09
09
SEK 110,3 130,1
Chart 2:25
84,4
63,6
9,1
aug09
sepnovokt-09
09
09
11,2
19,9
3,9
21,2
decmarjan-10 feb-10
09
10
2,2
1,0
0,6
0,8
Source: Euroclear Sweden AB and the Riksbank
Corporate credit quality measured by expected
Expected default frequency (EDF), historical outcomes
and forecasts according to the Riksbank’s main
scenario
Per cent
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
98
Chart 2:26
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: Moody’s KMV Credit Edge and the Riksbank
Corporate borrowing from credit institutions
and their securities funding in Sweden and
abroad
SEK billion
3 000
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0
1998
Chart B10
1999 2000
2001
2002 2003
2004
2005 2006
Swedish credit institutions
Debt securities in Sweden
Debt securities abroad
Trade credits
2007
2008 2009
2010
Foreign credit institutions
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Total issued in the Swedish corporate bond
market broken down by issuer
SEK billion
100
80
60
40
20
2*
1
Q
09
20
20
09
Q
4
20
08
Q
3
20
08
Q
2
20
08
Q
1
20
08
Q
4
20
07
Q
3
20
07
Q
2
Q
07
20
20
07
Q
1
0
Government guarantee (including Volvo finans)
Financial companies
Of which covered bonds
Non-financial companies
Local governments and companies and government-linked companies
Chart B11
Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank
The
commercial
property
market
Commercial property prices
in Sweden and abroad
Annual percentage change
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
95
96
Sweden
97
98
Ireland
99
00
France
01
02
03
Netherlands
04
05
Spain
06
UK
07
08
USA
Chart 2:27 Sources: Investment Property Databank (IPD), Reuters EcoWin, MIT Center for Real Estate and the Riksbank
Commercial property prices in
Sweden
Annual percentage change
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
1997
1998
1999
2000
All properties
Chart 2:28
2001
2002
Retail
2003
Offices
2004
2005
Industrial
2006
2007
2008
Residential
Sources: IPD, Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Real prices of office premises in city
centres
Index 1981 = 100
500
400
300
200
100
0
81
83
85
87
89
91
Stockholm
Chart 2:29
93
95
97
Göteborg
99
01
03
05
07
09
Malmö
Sources: Newsec and the Riksbank
Average yield levels for modern
office premises in city centres
Per cent
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
86
88
90
Stockholm
Chart 2:30
92
94
Göteborg
96
98
Malmö
00
02
04
06
08
10
Five-year government bond yield
Sources: Newsec and Reuters EcoWin
Real prices and rents of office premises in
Stockholm city centre
Annual percentage change
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
dec-82
dec-85
dec-88
dec-91
Prices
Chart 2:31
dec-94
dec-97
dec-00
dec-03
dec-06
dec-09
Rents
Sources: Newsec and the Riksbank
Real rents of office premises in city centres
Index 1981 = 100
250
200
150
100
50
0
dec-81
dec-84
dec-87
dec-90
dec-93
Stockholm
Chart 2:32
dec-96
Göteborg
dec-99
dec-02
dec-05
dec-08
Malmö
Sources: Newsec and the Riksbank
Vacancy rate for office premises in city
centres
Per cent
25
20
15
10
5
0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
Stockholm
Chart 2:33
2000
Göteborg
2002
2004
2006
2008
Malmö
Sources: Newsec and the Riksbank
Vacancy rate and nominal rents for office
premises in Stockholm city centre
Per cent, SEK per square metre and year
5000
25
4000
20
3000
15
2000
10
1000
5
0
0
90
92
94
96
Rents (left scale)
Chart 2:34
98
00
02
04
06
08
Vacancy ratio (right scale)
Sources: Newsec and the Riksbank
Price development of property shares
Index 29 December 1995=100
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
OMXS
Chart 2:35
dec-09
dec-08
dec-07
dec-06
dec-05
dec-04
dec-03
dec-02
dec-01
dec-00
dec-99
dec-98
dec-97
dec-96
dec-95
0
CREX
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
The property companies' credit quality
measured according to the EDF
Per cent
1,8
1,6
1,4
1,2
1,0
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
dec-04
Chart 2:36
jun-05
dec-05
jun-06
dec-06
jun-07
dec-07
jun-08
dec-08
jun-09
Source: Moody's KMV CreditEdge
The Nordic
countries
excluding
Sweden and
Germany
House prices
Annual percentage change
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
2004
2005
Germany
Chart 2:37
2006
Denmark
2007
Finland
2008
Norway
2009
2010
Sweden
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the BIS
Companies’ borrowings
Annual percentage change
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
2004
2005
2006
Germany
Chart 2:38
2007
2008
Denmark
2009
Norway
2010
2011
2012
Finland
Source: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Households’ borrowings
Annual percentage change
20
15
10
5
0
-5
2005
2006
2007
Germany
Chart 2:39
2008
Denmark
2009
Norway
2010
2011
Finland
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, ECB and the Riksbank
Expected default frequency for
listed non-financial companies
Per cent
3
2
1
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
Germany
Chart 2:40
2002
2003
Denmark
2004
2005
Norway
2006
2007
Finland
2008
2009
2010
Sweden
Source: Moody’s KMV Credit Edge
Expected default frequency
for transport companies
Per cent
3
2
1
0
2005
2006
Germany
Chart 2:41
2007
Denmark
2008
Norway
2009
2010
Finland
Source: Moody’s KMV Credit Edge
Expected default frequency
for construction companies
Per cent
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2005
2006
2007
Germany
Chart 2:42
Denmark
2008
Norway
2009
2010
Finland
Source: Moody’s KMV Credit Edge
Commercial property prices
Annual percentage change
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
2000
2001
2002
Germany
Chart 2:43
2003
Denmark
2004
2005
Norway
2006
2007
2008
Finland
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, IPD and the Riksbank
The Baltic
countries
GDP
Annual percentage change
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
mar-99 mar-00 mar-01 mar-02 mar-03 mar-04 mar-05 mar-06 mar-07 mar-08 mar-09
Estonia
Chart 2:44
Latvia
Lithuania
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Real exchange rates for the Baltic countries
Index 2000=100
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
jan-00
jan-01
jan-02
jan-03
Estonia
Chart 2:45
jan-04
jan-05
Latvia
jan-06
jan-07
jan-08
jan-09
Lithuania
Source: The BIS
Change in export and real exchange
rates for various countries
Per cent
0
Percentage change in exports
-5
Poland
-10
-15
Hungary
-20
Bulgaria
Czech
Republic
-25
Lithuania
Estonia
-30
Latvia
-35
Romania
-40
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Percentage change in real exchange rate
Chart 2:46
Sources: BIS and Reuters EcoWin
Current account
Percentage of GDP, totalled over four quarters
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
dec-00
Chart 2:47
dec-01
dec-02
dec-03
dec-04
Estonia
Latvia
dec-05
dec-06
dec-07
dec-08
Lithuania
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Unemployment
Per cent
20
16
12
8
4
0
jan-00
jan-01
jan-02
jan-03
jan-04
Estonia
Chart 2:48
jan-05
Latvia
jan-06
jan-07
jan-08
jan-09
jan-10
Lithuania
Source: Eurostat
Real wages
Annual percentage change
25
20
15
10
5
0
Estonia
Chart 2:49
Latvia
dec-08
dec-07
dec-06
dec-05
dec-04
dec-03
dec-02
dec-01
dec-00
-5
Lithuania
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Harmonised index for consumer
prices
Annual percentage change
18
15
12
9
6
3
0
-3
00
01
02
03
04
Estonia
Chart 2:50
05
Latvia
06
07
08
09
10
Lithuania
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Consumer confidence indicator
Net figures, per cent
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
jan-05
jul-05
jan-06
jul-06
Estonia
Chart 2:51
jan-07
Latvia
jul-07
jan-08
jul-08
jan-09
jul-09
Lithuania
Source: European Commission
Household borrowing
Percentage change from the previous month, calculated as
an annual rate
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
jan-07
jul-07
jan-08
Estonia
Chart 2:52
Latvia
jul-08
jan-09
Lithuania
Sources: National central banks, Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Corporate borrowing
Percentage change from the previous month, calculated as
an annual rate
80
60
40
20
0
-20
jan-07
jul-07
Estonia
Chart 2:53
jan-08
Latvia
jul-08
jan-09
Lithuania
Sources: National central banks, Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Households’ and companies’ debts in
relation to GDP in the Baltic countries and
Sweden
Per cent
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Estonia
Chart 2:54
Latvia
Lithuania
Sweden
Sources: National central banks and Reuters EcoWin.
Late payments in Estonia and Latvia
Per cent of outstanding loans
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Estonia (more than 60 days)
Chart 2:55
dec-09
dec-08
dec-07
dec-06
dec-05
dec-04
dec-03
dec-02
dec-01
dec-00
0
Latvia (more than 90 days)
Sources: Eesti Pank and the Financial and Capital Market Commission
Ukraina
Industrial production in Ukraine
Annual percentage change
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
jan-04 jul-04 jan-05 jul-05 jan-06 jul-06 jan-07 jul-07 jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09
Chart 2:56
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, State Statistics Committee of Ukraine and the Riksbank
Exchange rates
Hryvnia per dollar and per euro
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
UAH/USD
Chart 2:57
UAH/EUR
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Households' bank borrowing in
foreign
and domestic currency in Ukraine
Per cent of nominal GDP
25
20
15
10
5
0
2003
2004
2005
Foreign currency
Chart 2:58
2006
2007
2008
Domestic currency
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, the National Bank of Ukraine, the IMF and the Riksbank
Non-financial companies' bank
borrowing
in foreign and domestic currency
Per cent of nominal GDP
40
30
20
10
0
2003
2004
2005
Foreign currency
Chart 2:59
2006
2007
2008
Domestic currency
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, the National Bank of Ukraine, the IMF and the Riksbank
Developments
in the banks
Distribution of net operating profits
2008
Per cent
Other countries 2%
Baltic countries 1%
Finland 15%
Denmark
13%
Sweden 56%
Norway 13%
Chart 3:1
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
The banks’ earnings
SEK billion
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2004
2005
2006
Net interest income
Net results of financial transactions
Chart 3:2
2007
2008
mars 2009
Net commission income
Other income
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Lending per geographical area
and borrower category
Per cent of total lending
100
80
60
40
20
0
Sweden
Households
Chart 3:3
Other Nordic
countries
Baltic countries
Other countries
Companies, excluding property companies
Total
Property companies
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Earnings distribution over the last three
years
Per cent
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
SEB
Net interest income
Chart 3:4
Handelsbanken
Net commission income
Nordea
Swedbank
Operations at fair value
Other income
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Net interest income in relation
to interest-bearing assets
Per cent
1,9
1,8
1,7
1,6
1,5
1,4
1,3
1,2
1,1
1,0
97:4
Chart 3:5
98:4
99:4
00:4
01:4
02:4
03:4
04:4
05:4
06:4
07:4
08:4
09:4
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
The major banks’ securities-related
commission income and turnover and
stock market index
Index: 2003 Q 1 = 100
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
03:1
04:1
05:1
Kapitalförvaltningsrelaterade intäkter
Chart 3:6
06:1
07:1
OMX-index
08:1
Omsättning OMX
09:1
Courtageintäkter
Sources: Bank reports, NASDAQ OMX and the Riksbank
Cost-effectiveness at the major banks
Per cent
68
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
00:4
Chart 3:7
01:4
02:4
03:4
04:4
05:4
06:4
07:4
08:4
09:4
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Allocation of assets weighted for risk
Per cent, March 2009
Operational risk
7%
Market risk 3%
Credit risk 90%
Chart 3:8
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Share valuation and CDS premiums
over the previous year
Market capitalisation in relation to equity
1,2
Handelsbanken
1,0
Nordea
0,8
SEB
0,6
Swedbank
0,4
0,2
0,0
250
200
150
100
50
0
CDS premium in basis points, reversed scale
Chart 3:9
Sources: Bloomberg, Handelsbanken Capital Markets and the Riksbank
Market shares of lending in the Baltic
countries
Per cent, March 2009
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Estonia
Swedbank
Chart 3:10
Latvia
SEB
Lithuania
Nordea
Other
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
The major bank’s loan losses
Percentage of lending
1,0
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
00:1
01:1
02:1
03:1
04:1
05:1
06:1
07:1
08:1
09:1
Recoveries and reversals
Realised and probable loan losses
Net loan losses
Chart 3:11
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank.
The major banks’ impaired loans,
loan losses and provisions
Per cent
4,0
90
3,5
80
3,0
70
2,5
60
2,0
50
1,5
40
1,0
30
0,5
20
0,0
10
-0,5
0
dec97
dec98
dec99
dec00
dec01
Impaired loans, gross
Chart 3:12
dec02
dec03
dec04
Loan loss level, net
dec05
dec06
dec07
dec08
dec09
Provision ratio (right scale)
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Earnings before loan losses and
loan losses (net) in the major banks
Summed up over four quarters, SEK billion, fixed prices, 31 Mars 09
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
dec-90 dec-92 dec-94 dec-96 dec-98 dec-00 dec-02 dec-04 dec-06 dec-08 dec-10
Profi t before loan losses
Chart 3:13
Loan losses, net
Sources: Bank reports, SME Direkt and the Riksbank
Distribution of loan losses per region
in the Riksbank’s main scenario
Per cent
Other
Other Eastern8%
Europe
6%
Sweden
27%
Baltic countries
32%
Nordic countries
excl Sweden
27%
Chart 3:14
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Distribution of loan losses in 2009 and
2010 in the Riksbank’s main scenario
Per cent
Handelsbanken
15%
Nordea 36%
SEB
22%
Swedbank 27%
Chart 3:15
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Tier 1 capital ratios including new
issues
Per cent
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
March
2008
March
2009
Swedbank
March
2008
March
2009
Nordea
Tier 1 capital ratio
Chart 3:16
March
2008
March
2009
SEB
March
2008
March
2009
SHB
New issue
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
The core Tier 1 capital ratios of European
banks
Per cent, first quarter 2009
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Chart 3:17
Mean
Nordea
Handelsbanken
Swedbank
SEB
0
Source: Nomura
The banks’ sources of funding
Per cent
Debt securities
issued 40%
Deposits 45%
Credit from the
Riksbank 5%
Interbank, net 7%
Chart 3:18
Governmentguaranteed
borrowing via the
SNDO
3%
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
The banks’ deposits and lending
SEK billion
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
mar-01
mar-02
mar-03
Lending
Chart 3:19
mar-04
mar-05
Deposits
mar-06
mar-07
mar-08
mar-09
Deposit deficit
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Annual change in the banks’ lending to
other credit institutions
SEK billion
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
05:1
Chart 3:20
06:1
07:1
08:1
09:1
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
The major bank with the lowest Tier 1
capital ratio after another bank defaulted on
its payments
Per cent
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
dec-99
Chart 3:21
dec-00
dec-01
dec-02
dec-03
dec-04
dec-05
dec-06
dec-07
dec-08
dec-09
Source.: The Riksbank
The banks’ actual Tier 1 ratios and
Tier 1 ratios in the stress test
Per cent
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
SEB
31 Dec 2008 (actual)
Chart 3:22
Swedbank
Nordea
31 Dec 2009 (stress test)
Handelsbanken
31 Dec 2010 (stress test)
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Regulatory capital requirement,
economic capital and Tier 1 capital
As a percentage of balance sheet total, December 2008
5
4
3
2
1
0
SEB
Chart B12
Nordea
Swedbank
Capital requirement without transitional rules (Basel II)
Economic capital
Tier 1 capital after rights issue and decreased dividend
SHB
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Article:
Global recession
and financial
stability
Global GDP growth
Annual percentage change
8
6
4
2
0
Chart 1
dec-10
dec-05
dec-00
dec-95
dec-90
dec-85
dec-80
dec-75
dec-70
-2
Sources: IMF and the Riksbank
Actual global level of defaults and forecast
Percentage of total number of companies
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
70
Chart 2
73
76
79
82
85
88
91
94
97
00
03
06
09
12
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and Moody’s
GDP growth during various crises
Annual percentage change
20
4 quarters
before the
crisis
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
Argentina 2001-02
Finland 1990-93
Chart 3
2
3
4
5
6
7
Uruguay 2002
Japan 1991-2001
8
9
10 11 12
13 14
15
Sweden 1991-93
Source: Reuters EcoWin
GDP growth during the Asian crisis 19971998
Annual percentage change
15
4 quarters
before the
crisis
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
Thailand
Chart 4
2
3
4
5
South Korea
6
7
8
Malaysia
9
10 11 12
13 14
15
Philippines
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Proportion of problem loans and GDP loss
internationally in a selection of previous
crises
Per cent
45
Highest proportion of problem loans
40
Uruguay
35
South
Korea
Indonesia
Japan
Thailand
30
Malaysia
25
Philippines
20
Argentina
15
Sweden
Finland
10
5
0
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Lowest measured GDP outcome
Chart 5
Source: Laeven, Luc and Valencia (2008),”Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database” IMF Working Paper
Credit spreads for corporate
bonds in the United States
Basis points
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
99
00
01
02
Aaa
Chart 6
03
04
Baa
05
06
07
08
09
10
High-yield
Source: Reuters EcoWin