FSR
2009:02
26/11/2009
Government support from the Riksbank and the
Swedish National Debt Office to financial
institutions on the Swedish market
SEK, billion
900
Issues in USD and euro guaranteed by the Swedish National Debt Office
800
700
Issues in SEK guaranteed by the Swedish National Debt Office
The Riksbank's USD lending (in SEK)
The Riksbank's SEK lending
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
okt08
Chart 1:1
nov- dec08
08
jan09
feb- mar09
09
apr09
maj09
jun09
jul09
aug09
sep09
okt09
nov- dec09
09
Sources: the Riksbank and Swedish National Debt Office
Federal Reserve balance sheet
USD, billions
2500
1000
2000
800
1500
600
1000
400
500
200
0
aug-07
0
dec-07
apr-08
aug-08
Total assets (left scale)
CPFF (right scale)
Other liquidity facilites (right scale)
Chart 1:2
dec-08
apr-09
aug-09
dec-09
TAF (right scale)
Swap lines to other central banks (right scale)
Source: Federal Reserve
Three-month interbank rate minus expected
policy rate
Basis points
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
jan-07
jul-07
US
Chart 1:3
jan-08
Euro area
jul-08
jan-09
UK
jul-09
jan-10
Sweden
Source: Bloomberg
Decomposition of the swedish basis spread
Basis points
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
jan-07
jul-07
jan-08
Credit premium
Chart 1:4
jul-08
jan-09
jul-09
jan-10
Liquidity premium
Source: The Riksbank
Outstanding volumes in US commercial
paper
USD, billions
2500
Non-financial commercial paper
Financial commercial paper
Asset Backed Commercial Papers
2000
1500
1000
500
0
jan-05
Chart 1:5
jan-06
jan-07
jan-08
jan-09
jan-10
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Outstanding volumes of Euro Commercial
Paper
USD, billions
1000
800
600
400
200
0
jan-07
Chart 1:6
jan-08
jan-09
Source: Euroclear
Ten-year government bond yields in various
countries
Per cent
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
jan-07
jan-08
Germany
Chart 1:7
France
jan-09
Spain
Sweden
jan-10
US
UK
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Issues of corporate bonds in US dollar
USD, Billions
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
Investment grade corporate bonds
Chart 1:8
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
High-yield corporate bonds
Source: SIFMA
Credit spreads for corporate bonds in the
United States and euro area
Basis points
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
jan-07
jan-08
AAA - euro area
Chart 1:9
BBB - euro area
jan-09
Baa - US
jan-10
Aaa - US
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Credit spreads for high yield corporate
bonds in the United States and euro area
Basis points
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
jan-07
jan-08
jan-09
US
Chart 1:10
jan-10
Euro area
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Actual global default rate and forecast
Per cent
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
70
73
76
79
82
85
88
91
Actual global default rate in October 2009
Chart 1:11
94
97
00
03
06
09
12
Forecast in M ay 2009
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Difference between mortgage bond yields
and government bond yields with two and
five years maturity respectively
Basis points
250
200
150
100
50
0
jan-07
jan-08
5-year
Chart 1:12
jan-09
jan-10
2-year
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Premiums in the CDS index
Basis points
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
jan-07
jan-08
North America - CDX
Chart 1:13
jan-09
jan-10
Europe - iTraxx
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and Bloomberg
U.S. securitization market issuance
volumes
USD, billions
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
M BS - Government sponsored agencies
Chart 1:14
2005
2006
2007
2008 2009- 2009- 2009Q1
Q2
Q3
M BS - Non-government
ABS
CDO
Source: Securities Industry and Markets Association
Stock market developments
Index, 28 December 2007=100
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
jan-08
jul-08
Sweden - OM XS30
Chart 1:15
jan-09
United States - S&P 500
jul-09
jan-10
Europe - STOXX
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Implied stock market volatility
Per cent, 10 day moving average
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
96
97
98
Sweden - OMX
Chart 1:16
99
00
01
Europe, STOXX
02
03
04
05
United States - S&P 500
06
07
08
09
10
Historical average, OMX
Source: Bloomberg
P/E ratios
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
dec-93
dec-95
Sweden - OMXS30
Chart 1:17
dec-97
dec-99
Europe - STOXX
dec-01
dec-03
United States - S&P 500
dec-05
dec-07
dec-09
Historical average, OMXS30,
STOXX and S&P 500
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Swedish stress index
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
2007
2008
Stress index
Chart B1
TED spread
2009
Bond spread
2010
Equity volatility
Source: The Riksbank
International stress index
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
2007
2008
Stress index
Chart B2
TED spread
2009
Bond spread
2010
Equity volatility
Source: The Riksbank
Do you consider that the financial
crisis has peaked?
Per cent
Don’t know
Don’t know
No
19%
5%
46%
35%
9%
Yes
86%
Yes
No
Result
spring 2009
Chart B3
Result
autumn 2009
Source: The Riksbank
How has your propensity to take risk
changed compared to six month ago?
Per cent
Greatly
increased
Greatly
decrease
d
12%
Decrease
d slightly
Greatly
decreased, 2%
Greatly
increased
Decrease
d slightly
Neither increased
or decreased
7%
5%
9%
20%
28%
19%
32%
Increase
d slightly
29%
52%
Increase
d slightly
34%
Neither increased
or decreased
Result spring 2009
Chart B4
Result autumn 2009
Source: The Riksbank
How has your institution’s buffer of liquid
assets changed compared to six month ago?
Per cent
Don’t
know
Greatly
decrease
d
5%
Greatly
increased
13%
Decrease
d slightly 12%
28%
20%
Neither increased
or decreased
Result spring 2009
Don’t
know
9%
17%
Decrease
d slightly 17%
Chart B5
Greatly
decreased, 2%
Increase
d slightly
Greatly
increased
20%
29% Increase
28%
d slightly
Neither increased
or decreased
Result autumn 2009
Source: The Riksbank
Households' financial net wealth
Percentage of disposable income
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
97
Chart 2:1
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: Statistics Sweden
Households' nominal disposable income
and saving ratio
Annual percentage change and percentage of disposable income
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
93
97
01
Households' disposable incomes
Chart 2:2
05
09
Households' saving ratio
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Households' total borrowing from credit
institutions
Annual percentage change
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
FSR 2009:2
Chart 2:3
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
FSR 2009:1
Source: The Riksbank
Consumer credit with housing as collateral,
as
a percentage of disposable income
Per cent
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
1997 1998
1999 2000
2001 2002 2003
Sweden
Chart 2:4
UK
2004 2005 2006
2007 2008
2009 2010
Australia
Sources: Reserve Bank of Australia, Reuters EcoWin, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Breakdown of households' new loans by
fixed interest period
Per cent
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
96
97
98
99
00
Variable rate
Chart 2:5
01
02
03
04
Fixed rate < 5 years
05
06
07
08
09
Fixed rate > 5 years
Source: The Riksbank
Households' debt and post-tax interest
exependiture
Percentage of disposable income
220
22
200
20
180
18
160
16
140
14
120
12
100
10
80
8
60
6
40
4
20
2
0
0
82
85
88
91
94
Debt ratio (left scale)
Debt ratio FSR 2009:1 (left scale)
Chart 2:6
97
00
03
06
09
12
Interest ratio (right scale)
Interest ratio FSR 2009:1 (right scale)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Households below the margin, impaired
loans and potential loan losses
Per cent
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2004
2005
2006
Households below the margin
Chart 2:7
2007
2008
(forecast)
Impaired loans
2009
(forecast)
2010
(forecast)
Potential loan losses
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Percentage of debt and assets held by
indebted households in different income
groups
Per cent
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Income group 1
Income group 2
Share of total debts
Chart 2:8
Income group 3
Income group 4
Share of financial assets
Income group 5
Share of real assets
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
House prices in Sweden and the
Stockholm, Göteborg and Malmö regions
Index, 1986 = 100
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
86
88
90
Sweden
Chart 2:9
92
94
96
Stockholm region
98
00
02
Göteborg region
04
06
08
10
M almö region
Source: Statistics Sweden
Tenant-owned apartment prices,
three-month moving average
SEK per square metre
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
Sweden
Göteborg region
Sweden, excluding metropolitan areas
Chart 2:10
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Stockholm region
M almö region
Source: www.maklarstatistik.se
Time to sale in Sweden
Number of days, median
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
jan-08
jul-08
jan-09
Single-family dwellings
Chart 2:11
jul-09
jan-10
Tenant-owner apartments
Sources: Hemnet and www.maklarstatistik.se
Real house prices in Sweden and
abroad
Index, 1995 = 100
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1985
1990
Sweden
Chart B6
1995
Denmark
2000
Finland
2005
UK
2010
Germany
Sources: The BIS, Reuters EcoWin and Statistics Sweden
Real house prices in Sweden and
abroad
Index, 1995 = 100
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1985
1990
Sweden
Chart B7
1995
Norway
2000
Spain
Ireland
2005
US
2010
Australia
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and Statisics Sweden
Household debt as percentage of
disposable income
Per cent
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1980
Chart B8
1985
Sweden
Spain
1990
Norway
US
1995
Denmark
Australia
2000
Finland
2005
UK
2010
Sources: The BIS, national central banks, Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Percentage of new borrowing with
variable interest rates
Per cent
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Sweden
Denmark
UK
2006 Q1
Chart B9
Spain
Ireland
2009 Q1
Source: European Mortgage Federation
Housing investment in relation to GDP,
seasonally-adjusted data
Per cent
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1993
1995
Sweden
Chart B10
1997
Norway
1999
Denmark
2001
UK
2003
Ireland
2005
Spain
2007
US
2009
Australia
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Housing investments in relation to GDP,
compared with changes in real house
prices
Per cent
14
Ireland
M ax (housing investments/ GDP)
12
10
Spain
8
Denmark
6
US
Norway
4
Australia
UK
Sweden
2
0
0
Chart B11
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
Change in real houseprices
-30
-35
-40
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Change of mortgage rates compared with
real house prices
Percentage and per cent
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
0,0
-0,5
US
-1,0
M ortgage rate
-1,5
Denmark
-2,0
-2,5
-3,0
-3,5
UK
Australia
Spain
Ireland
-4,0
Sweden
-4,5
-5,0
Change in real house prices
Chart B12
Sources: European Mortgage Federation, Federal Reserve and Reserve Bank of Australia
Interest rate changes as of 31 March 2009
compared with 30 September 2008
Percentage points
Sweden
Denmark
UK
Ireland
Spain
US
Australia
0,0
-1,0
-2,0
-3,0
-4,0
-5,0
Chart B13 Sources: Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland, Reserve Bank of Australia and Reuters EcoWin
Real house prices as a percentage of GDP
in constant prices
Index, 2000 = 100
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1980
Sweden
Chart B14
1985
Denmark
1990
1995
UK
Spain
2000
2005
Ireland
US
2010
Australia
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Profitability and debt/total assets ratio in
Swedish listed companies
Per cent
12
70
9
65
6
60
3
55
0
50
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Profitability (left scale)
Chart 2:12
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Debt/ total assets ratio (right scale)
Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank
Interest coverage ratio in Swedish listed
companies
Ratio
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1998
Chart 2:13
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank
Current ratio in Swedish listed
companies
Per cent
200
180
160
140
120
100
1998
Chart 2:14
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank
The number of company bankruptcies
broken down by company size
Twelve-month moving average
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1983
1986
1989
1992
1-9 employees
Chart 2:15
1995
1998
10-49 employees
2001
2004
2007
2010
All companies
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Corporate borrowing form credit
institutions and their securities funding
SEK billion
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
Swedish credit institutions
Debt securities abroad
Chart 2:16
2002
2003
2004
2005
Debt securities in Sweden
Trade credits
2006
2007
2008
2009
Foreign credit institutions
Source: The Riksbank
Corporate borrowing from credit
institutions and fixed gross investment
Annual percentage change
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
Corporate borrowing from credit institutions
Forecast borrowing FSR 2009:01
Forecast investments, M PR October
Chart 2:17
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Forecast borrowing FSR 2009:02
Gross fixed capital formation
Forecast investments, FSR 2009:01
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Corporate credit risk, outcome and forecast
according to the Riksbank's main scenario
Per cent
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
99
Chart 2:18
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Sources: Moody's KMV and the Riksbank
Transaction volumes on the Swedish
commercial property market
SEK billion
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
99
00
01
02
03
Swedish investors
Chart 2:19
04
05
06
07
08
09
Foreign investors
Sources: Savills and the Riksbank
Prices for office premises in Sweden and
abroad
Annual percentage change
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
dec-05
jun-06
dec-06
Sweden
Chart 2:20
jun-07
dec-07
UK
jun-08
Ireland
dec-08
jun-09
dec-09
US
Sources: IPD, Reuters EcoWin, MIT Center for Real Estate, Newsec and the Riksbank
Real prices of office premises in city
centres
Index, 1981 = 100
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
81
83
85
87
89
Stockholm
Chart 2:21
91
93
95
97
Göteborg
99
01
03
05
07
09
M almö
Sources: Newsec and the Riksbank
Average yield levels for modern office
premises in city centres
Per cent
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
dec-85
dec-88
dec-91
Stockholm
Chart 2:22
dec-94
Göteborg
dec-97
M almö
dec-00
dec-03
dec-06
dec-09
Five-year government bond yield
Sources: Newsec and Reuters EcoWin
Real prices and rents of office premises in
Stockholm city centre
Annual percentage change
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
82
85
88
91
Prices
Chart 2:23
94
97
00
03
06
09
Rents
Sources: Newsec and the Riksbank
Vacancy rate for office premises in city
centres
Per cent
25
20
15
10
5
0
87
89
91
93
95
Stockholm
Chart 2:24
97
99
Göteborg
01
03
05
07
09
M almö
Source: Newsec
Number of employed in the business sector
Annual percentage change
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
94
96
98
00
Business sector
Chart 2:25
02
04
Goods producers
06
08
10
12
Services producers
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Expected default frequency (EDF) and
share prices for property companies
Index, January 2005 = 100 and per cent
150
0,9
100
0,6
50
0,3
0
0,0
Chart 2:26
'05
'06
CREX (left scale)
'07
OM XS (left scale)
'08
'09
EDF (right scale)
jan-10
1,2
jan-09
200
jan-08
1,5
jan-07
250
jan-06
1,8
jan-05
300
Sources: Moody's KMV Credit Edge, Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
House prices
Annual percentage change
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
99
00
01
Germany
Chart 2:27
02
03
Denmark
04
05
Norway
06
Finland
07
08
09
10
Sweden
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the BIS
Companies borrowings
Annual percentage change
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
2003
2004
Germany
Chart 2:28
2005
Denmark
2006
2007
2008
Norway
Finland
Sweden
2009
Sources: ECB and national statistics offices
Households' borrowings
Annual percentage change
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
2003
2004
Germany
Chart 2:29
2005
2006
2007
2008
Denmark
Norway
Finland
Sweden
2009
Sources: ECB and national statistics offices
Expected default frequency for listed nonfinancial companies
Per cent
4
3
2
1
0
98
99
00
01
Germany
Chart 2:30
02
03
Denmark
04
05
Norway
06
07
Finland
08
09
10
Sweden
Sources: Moody's KMV Credit Edge and the Riksbank
Corporate defaults
Twelve month moving average
4000
800
3000
600
2000
400
1000
200
0
0
04
05
Germany (left scale)
Finland (right scale)
Chart 2:31
06
07
08
Denmark (right scale)
Sweden (right scale)
09
10
Norway (right scale)
Sources: National statistics offices
GDP
Annual percentage change
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
98
99
00
01
Estonia
Chart 2:32
02
03
Latvia
04
05
06
07
08
09
Lithuania
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Current account
Percentage of GDP
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
dec-00
dec-01
dec-02
dec-03
Estonia
Chart 2:33
dec-04
Latvia
dec-05
dec-06
dec-07
dec-08
dec-09
Lithuania
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Unemployment
Per cent
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
00
01
02
03
Estonia
Chart 2:34
04
05
Latvia
06
07
08
09
10
Lithuania
Source: Eurostat
Consumer confidence indicator
Net figures, per cent
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
jan-05
jan-06
Estonia
Chart 2:35
jan-07
Latvia
jan-08
jan-09
jan-10
Lithuania
Source: European Commission
Real exchange rates for the Baltic countries
Index, 2000 = 100
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
dec-00
dec-01
dec-02
dec-03
Estonia
Chart 2:36
dec-04
dec-05
Latvia
dec-06
dec-07
dec-08
dec-09
Lithuania
Source: The BIS
Nominal wages
Annual percentage change
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
dec-00
dec-01
dec-02
dec-03
Estonia
Chart 2:37
dec-04
dec-05
Latvia
dec-06
dec-07
dec-08
dec-09
Lithuania
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Harmonised index for consumer
prices
Annual percentage change
18
15
12
9
6
3
0
-3
00
01
02
03
04
Estonia
Chart 2:38
05
Latvia
06
07
08
09
10
Lithuania
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Household borrowing
Annual percentage change
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
jan-01
jan-02
jan-03
jan-04
Estonia
Chart 2:39
jan-05
jan-06
Lativa
jan-07
jan-08
jan-09
jan-10
Lithuania
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Corporate borrowing
Annual percentage change
60
40
20
0
-20
jan-01
jan-02
jan-03
Estonia
Chart 2:40
jan-04
jan-05
Latvia
jan-06
jan-07
jan-08
jan-09
jan-10
Lithuania
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Households' and companies' debt
in realtion to GDP
Per cent
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
94
95
96
97
98
Estonia
Chart 2:41
99
00
Latvia
01
02
03
Lithuania
04
05
06
07
08
09
Sweden
Sources: National central banks and Reuters EcoWin
Late payments
Per cent of outstanding loans
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Estonia (more than 60 days)
Chart 2:42
Latvia (more than 90 days)
dec-09
dec-08
dec-07
dec-06
dec-05
dec-04
dec-03
dec-02
dec-01
dec-00
0
Lithuania (more than 60 days)
Sources: Eesti Pank, Financial and Capital Market Commission and Lietuvos Bankas
GDP in constant prices
Annual percentage change
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Russia
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Ukraine
Chart 2:43Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook DB, Oct 09, Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts, Sep 09, the Riksbank
Bank borrowing in foreign and domestic
currency in Ukraine
Per cent of nominal GDP
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
Foreign currency
Chart 2:44
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Domestic currency
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2009, and the Riksbank
Bank borrowing in foreign and domestic
currency in Russia
Per cent of nominal GDP
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2006
2007
Foreign currency
Chart 2:45
2008
Domestic currency
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2009, and the Riksbank
The banks' earnings
SEK billion
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
sep 05
sep 06
Net interest income
Operations at fair value
Chart 3:1
sep 07
sep 08
sep 09
Net commission income
Other income
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Lending per geographical area and
borrower category, September 2009
Per cent of total lending
100
80
60
40
20
0
Sweden
Households
Chart 3:2
Other Nordic
countries
Baltic countries
Other countries
Companies, excluding property companies
Total
Property companies
Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
Net interest income in relation to interestbearing assets
Per cent
1,9
1,8
1,7
1,6
1,5
1,4
1,3
1,2
1,1
1,0
97:4
Chart 3:3
98:4
99:4
00:4
01:4
02:4
03:4
04:4
05:4
06:4
07:4
08:4
09:4
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
The major banks' securities-related
commission income and turnover and
stock market index
Index, 2003 Q1 = 100
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
03:1
04:1
05:1
Asset management-related income
Chart 3:4
06:1
07:1
OMX index
08:1
Turnover OMX
09:1
Brokerage income
Sources: Bank reports, NASDAQ OMX and the Riksbank
Allocation of total assets
Per cent, September 2009
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
SEB
Loans to public
Chart 3:5
Handelsbanken
Loans to credit institutions
Nordea
Debt securities
Swedbank
Other assets
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Market shares of lending in the Baltic
countries
Per cent, September 2009
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Estonia
Swedbank
Chart 3:6
Latvia
SEB
Nordea
Lithuania
Other
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
The major banks' loan losses
Percentage of lending
1,0
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
Recoveries and reversals
Chart 3:7
Realised and probable loan losses
09:1
08:1
07:1
06:1
05:1
04:1
03:1
02:1
01:1
00:1
-0,6
Loan losses
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Earnings before loan losses and loan
losses (net) in the major banks
Summed up over four quarters, SEK billion, fixed prices,
30 September 2009
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
dec-90
dec-93
Profit before loan losses
Chart 3:8
dec-96
dec-99
Loan losses, net
dec-02
dec-05
dec-08
dec-11
Main scenario loan losses, net, FSR 2009:1
Sources: Bank reports, SME Direkt and the Riksbank
Distribution of loan losses per region in the
period Q4 2009 to 2011 in the Riksbank's
main scenario
SEK billion and per cent
25
16%
29
19%
29
19%
28
18%
31
19%
Sweden
Estonia
Lithuania
Chart 3:9
14
9%
Nordic countries excluding Sweden
Latvia
Other countries
Source: The Riksbank
Total loan losses in the Riksbank's main
scenario in relation to lending
Per cent
5
4
3
2
1
0
Handelsbanken
Chart 3:10
Nordea
SEB
Swedbank
Total
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
The core Tier 1 capital ratios of European
banks, March 2009
Per cent
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Chart 3:11
SE
B
or
de
SH a
B
N
Sw
ed
ba
nk
0
Source: Nomura
Assets in relation to equity
Per cent
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
jun-04
jun-05
European banks
Chart 3:12
jun-06
jun-07
jun-08
jun-09
M ajor Swedish banks
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
The banks' sources of financing,
September 2009
Per cent
3%
4%
6%
Credit from the Riksbank
13%
Government-guaranteed
borrowing via the Swedish
National Debt Office
Interbank, net
46%
Covered bonds in SEK
Certificates
Deposits
28%
Chart 3:13
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
The banks' deposits and lending
SEK billion
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
mar-01
mar-02
mar-03
Loans
Chart 3:14
mar-04
mar-05
Deposits
mar-06
mar-07
mar-08
mar-09
mar-10
Deposit deficit
Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
The major bank with the lowest Tier 1
capital ratio after another Swedish major
bank defaulted on payments
Per cent
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
dec-99
Chart 3:15
dec-00
dec-01
dec-02
dec-03
dec-04
dec-05
dec-06
dec-07
dec-08
dec-09
Source: The Riksbank
The bank's Tier 1 and core Tier 1 capital,
actual and in the stress test
Per cent
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
Handelsbanken
Tier 1 capital ratio
Core tier 1 capital ratio
Chart 3:16
Swedbank
2009 Kv 3
2009 Kv 3
SEB
2009 Kv 4
2009 Kv 4
Nordea
2010
2010
2011
2011
Source: The Riksbank
Spread over swap for covered bonds in
EUR, five years
Basis points
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
jun-07
Chart B15
dec-07
jun-08
dec-08
jun-09
dec-09
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
EUR/SEK cross currency basis spread,
five years
Basis points
40
30
20
10
0
-10
dec-05
Chart B16
dec-06
dec-07
dec-08
dec-09
Source: Bloomberg
Money market basis spread (between 6
months EURIBOR and 3 months EURIBOR),
five years
Basis points
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
dec-05
Chart B17
dec-06
dec-07
dec-08
dec-09
Source: Bloomberg