What is known
and what is not known but can be reasonably guessed
about the evolution of drug markets
since the creation
of the international drug control system
Sandeep Chawla, Director, Policy Analysis and Public Affairs Branch;
Angela Me, Chief, Statistics and Surveys Section;
Thomas Pietschmann, Studies and Threat Analysis Section
UNODC,
May 2012
i) Conclusions that can be drawn
with high level of confidence on the basis of data
available at the global level
metric tons
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
50
75
1650
1775
200
347
1800
1822
1835
1839
1863
metric tons
1856-60: Second Opium War
1858: Legalisation in Treaty of Tientsin
1839-42: First Opium War
1820: British East India Company began losing grip on monopoly
1729: First imperial opium import ban by China
1773: British East India Company monopoly in opium trade
7,000
17th century: Dutch East Indian company opium exports to China
Opium imports into China, 1650-1880
Domestic opium production in China, 1836-1906
40,000
35,000
6,500
1867
1880
35,300
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
12,000
10,000
6,500
5,000
0
300
1836
1880
1896
1906
4,897
4,232
2,553
1,390
Source: UNODC, 2008 World Drug Report, June 2008.
Evolution of the international drug control system
Opiates
(non
binding)
Opiates
and
Cocaine
Cannabis
Synthetic
opioids
Synthetic
Precursors
substances
Money
laundering
Shanghai
Conference
The Hague
Convention
LoN
Convention
Protocol
Single
Convention
Convention
Convention
1909
1912
1925
1948
1961
1971
1988
Global opium production in metric tons, 1906/1907 - 2010
45,000
42,600
40,000
35,000
30,000
Tons
30,000
-78%
25,000
20,000
Memo:
World population:
1900: 1.65 billion
2010: 6.9 billion
16,600
15,000
9,300
10,000
5,000
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1934
1909
1906/07
0
Illicit opium production
Licit poppy straw production in opium equivalents
Licit opium production
Sources: Report of the International Opium Commission, Shanghai, China, Feb. 1909, Vol. II, INCB, Narcotics Report, Narcotic Drugs: Estimated World
Requirements for 2012 – Statistics for 2010 and previous years, UNODC, A Century of International Drug Control (2009), UNODC, World Drug Report 2011 and
previous years.
Note: The transformation of poppy straw into opium equivalents is tentative. A transformation ratio of 6.9 kg of opium for 100 kg of poppy straw was applied,
derived from average morphine output from poppy straw of 0.73% at the global level (2006-2010) and an average morphine output from opium of 10.56% at the
global level (2006-2010). Annual specific results were applied for data over the 2006-2010 period.
Global potential cocaine production, 1990 - 2010
1,400
1,201
1,200
1,232
1,264
1,165
1,100
1,128
1,054
1,048
Metric tons
1,000
930
833
800
950
891
866
1,019
925
879
875
827
825
774
1,121 1,111
769
859
842
800
786
600
400
200
Total
Source: UNODC, 2011 World Drug Report, June 2011.
Total (rev.)
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
-
*
Annual prevalence of illicit drug use
300
7%
272
250
5.8%
250
million drug users
200
200
180
205
200
210
208
4.8%
4.7%
4.9%
5.0%
6%
5.7%
4.8%
4.8%
5%
185
4%
172
150
4.0%
155
149
3.5%
3.3% 3%
100
2%
50
38
25
25
38
39
26
0.6%
27
18
16
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.4%
0.4%
0.6%
0.3%
0.6%
15
No. of illicit drug users
Prevalence of illicit drug use in %
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2004/05
2003/04
2001/02
late 1990s
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2004/05
2003/04
2001/02
0%
late 1990s
-
1%
No of problem drug users
Prevalence of problem drug use in %
Source: UNODC, 2011 World Drug Report, Vienna, June 2011.
annual prevalence in % of population age 15-64
6.1%
250
Annual prevalence of illicit drug use at the global level, 2009/2010
5.0%
in percent of population age 15-64
4.5%
4.0%
3.6%
3.0%
2.8%
2.0%
1.3%
1.0%
0.8%
0.6%
0.5%
0.8%
0.3%
0.0%
Cannabis
Amphetamines
0.4%
0.2%
Ecstasy-Group
0.3%
0.6%
0.4%
Cocaine
Source: UNODC, 2011 World Drug Report, Vienna, June 2011.
0.5%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.3%
Opioids
0.2%
0.3%
of which opiates of which heroin
Problem drug use as reflected in treatment demand, 2009 or latest year available
Europe
North America
25%
8%
9%
9%
28%
20%
12%
54%
27%
Asia
0.2%
11%
22%
South America, Central America,
Carribean
50%
19% 5%
5%
2%
3%
4%
2%
0.5%
40%
59%
Africa
Oceania
64%
18% 0.5%
Persons treated:
≈ 4.8 million
Problem drug users: ≈27 million (15-39 mio)
32%
41%
Source: UNODC, 2011 World Drug Report., June 2011.
Deaths and Disability Adjusted Life-Years (DALYs) Lost
UNODC estimates for global drug abuse related deaths:
99,000 to 253,000
0.5%
to 1.3 %
of all mortality among persons aged 15-64
Source: UNODC, 2012 World Drug Report (forthcoming).
ii) Conclusions that can be drawn
when data gaps are filled
with qualitative information and
a triangulation of the limited available evidence;
Estimates of opiate use
among the total population
1907/08 and 2006
Estimates of annual prevalence
of opiate, cocaine and ATS use
at the global level,
1907/08 and 2006/07
3.3%
3.0%
-93%
2.0%
2.0%
1.5%
-83%
1.0%
0.25%
0.24%
0.0%
ASIA
WORLD
1907/08
2006
prevalence in % of total population
prevalence in % of total population
4.0%
1.5% - 1.6%
1.5%
< 1.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
1907/08
Source: UNODC, 2008 World Drug Report, June 2008.
2006/07
Cannabis herb seizures, 1947-2010
10,000
metric tons
8,000
6,000
4,000
Global average annual seizures
Europe
Oceania
North America
Asia
Source: UNODC, Annual Reports Questionnaire Data / DELTA
South America
Africa
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1980-84
1975-79
1967-74
0
1947-66
2,000
Cannabis use in the USA and EU, 1962-2011
4.0
37.1
35.0
3.5
30.0
3.0
23.7
24.2
25.0
22.6 2.5
2.0
18.3
20.0
2.0
16 . 6
15.0
15 . 9
11.9
13 . 6
10.0
12.6
11
9 .8
9 .4
8 .9
7 .9
8 .5 8 .5 8 .4 8 .6
9
5.0
3
3 .1 3 .3
3 .6
3 .9
4 .2
4 .4
4 .6
11. 3 11. 5
10 . 6 10 . 6 10 . 4 10 . 3
10 . 1 10 . 3
1.5
1.0
9 .3
8 .6 8 .6
4 .9
5 .2
8 .3
5 .7
6 .2
6 .6
6 .7
6 .6 6 .7
6 .7
6 .6
6 .8
6 .7
6 .7
0.5
0.0
0.0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
US Past month prevalence: age 12-34 (left scale)
EU-27 annual prevalence (15-64)
Incidence US (right scale)
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
US annual prevalence (age 12+), left scale
US past month prevalence: 12th graders (left scale)
Sources: SAMHSA, National Household Survey on Drug Use and Health 2011 and NIDA, Monitoring the Future, 2011, UNODC, Annual
Reports Questionnaire Data and EMCDDA, 2011 Statistical Bulletin (and previous years)
Incidence in %
Prevalence in %
40.0
Cocaine use in the USA and the EU, 1975-2011
7.0
14.0
13.1
6.0
12.0
5.0
10.0
5.1
4.0
8.0
3.6
6.2
3.0
6.0
5.7
2.7
2.5
2.5
2.0
annual prevalence in %
of 12th graders
annual prevalence in %
of population age 12 and above
5.6
4.0
1.8
1.7
2.9
1.5
1.0
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.9
1
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.2
0.0
2.0
0.0
1975
1980
1985
US: age 12 and above (left scale)*
EU-27: age 15-64, (left scale)
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
US: age 12 and above (left scale)**
US: 12th grade students (right scale)
Sources: SAMHSA, National Household Survey on Drug Use and Health 2011 and NIDA, Monitoring the Future, 2011, UNODC, Annual
Reports Questionnaire Data and EMCDDA, 2011 Statistical Bulletin (and previous years)
Trends in seizures of main drug categories (Index: 1998=100), 1995-2009
350
329
Index (1998 = 100)
300
250
190
187
178
200
150
100
50
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Cocaine
Heroin and morphine
Source: UNODC, Annual Reports Questionnaire Data / DELTA.
Cannabis
ATS
Direct drug related deaths (overdose) in the EU, 1985-2009
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
Source: EMCDDA, Statistical Bulletin 2011 (and previous years)
20
09
20
07
20
05
20
03
20
01
19
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
-
Drug related deaths in the USA, 1999-2008
Source: NIDA, Topics in brief: Prescription drug abuse, December 2011.
Trend in drug markets
Open questions:
• Precise baseline data (1961? 1971? 1988? 1998? 2009?)
• Problems with current monitoring of drug markets, notably:
– Cannabis production at the global level
• Problems:
– Global spread
– Indoor cultivation
– Level of synthetic drugs production
• Production in clandestine laboratories; only indirect indicators (dismantled labs;
seizures, precursors, users)
– Information about drug use, notably missing in Africa and parts of Asia
– Monitoring of prices and purities (retail and wholesale level)
– Amounts of drugs consumed by a drug user
THANK YOU
FOR YOUR ATTENTION
For more information:
http://www.unodc.org/
Parties: 183
Parties: 183
Parties: 183
1998
Special Session of the General Assembly devoted to Countering the Drug Problem
- Political Declaration, Guiding Principles of Drug Demand Reduction; Action Plans
2009 Political Declaration and Plan of Action (target date: 2019)
Summary of recent trends in drug production
2007 - 2010:
• Opium:
– Heroin:
• Cocaine:
strong decline
stable / some decline
some decline
•
stable
Cannabis:
– resin:
– herb:
•
•
•
Amphetamines:
Ecstasy:
‘Legal highs’:
some decline
some increase?
increase
decline
increase
Emergence of new substances
•
Piperazines
•
•
•
Mephedrone, MPDV (Methylenedioxypyrovalerone)
Spice
Drug-adulterant combinations: cocaine
& levamisole
•
Misuse of prescription drugs
Global opium production, 1990-2011
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
Potential global heroin production:
757 tons in 2007
752 tons in 2008
667 tons in 2009
384 tons in 2010
467 tons in 2011
Actual annual heroin production:
≈ 470 tons in 2009
Heroin consumption: ≈ 375 tons in 2009
Metric tons
8,640
460
5,760
5,000
4,270
4,450
4,140
3,760
4,360
-21%
6,990
6,660
4,820
4,610
7,850
410
5,620
6,000
4,000
8,890
4,350
895
330
315
4,790
4,690
4,840
4,500
+48%
610
4,640
4,740
312
1, 583
8, 200
580
7, 700
6, 900
1, 303
3,000
6, 100
4, 565
1,630
2,000
5, 800
4, 100
3, 600
3, 416
2, 693
1,000
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
Afghanistan
Sources:
1994
1995
1996
Myanmar
1997
1998
1999
2000
Lao PDR
2001 2002 2003 2004
2005 2006
Rest of the world
UNODC, 2012 World Drug Report, (forthcoming), June 2012, and previous years.
2007 2008 2009
Total
2010
2011
Global potential cocaine production, 1990 - 2010
1,400
1,200
Colombia:
Peru:
2000-2010
- 50%
+135 to +288%
Bolivia:
+167 to +263%
Global*
-11 to + 20%
1,201
1,165
1,100
----------------------------Metric tons
1,000
930
879
-17%
1,054
1,019
859
827
825
774
1,121 1,111
925
875
833
800
1,128
1,048
950
891
866
2007-10
1,264
1,232
769
680
842
800
-32%
786
695
680
680
660
630
600
+6%
550
450
492
435
400
350
240
200
- 44%
+10%
410
302
189
150
154
141
+11%
92
43
Total
Total (rev.)
Colombia
Source: UNODC, 2011 World Drug Report, June 2011.
Peru
Peru (rev.)
Bolivia
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
*
1990
-
Bolivia (rev.)
Evolution of the international drug control system
1909 Opiates (non binding)
1912 - Opiates and Cocaine
Cannabis -1925
1948 - Synthetic opioids
Synthetic substances - 1971
1988 - Precursors
Global tobacco use (age 15+ ) versus illicit drug use among the population age 15-64
30%
25%
20%
10%
4.8%
2.5%
0.6%
0%
Current use, 2006
Annual prevalence, 2009
Tobacco
* Past month use
Source: UNODC, 2011 World Drug Report, June 2011.
Current use* , 2009
Illicit drugs
Problem drug use, 2009
Conclusions to be drawn based on partial data
• The international drug control system appears to have helped to reduce global opium production
as well as the misuse of opiates – the most serious problem drugs - by more than three quarters
since their peak in 1906/07.
• However, it did not prevent an increase in cocaine and cannabis use at the global level over the
last century, nor did it prevent increases in ATS use;
• Nonetheless, the international drug control system appears to have prevented illicit drug use to
become as widespread as the use of licit substances; the health related harm caused by illicit
drugs is thus still far lower than that caused by licit psychoactive substances, such as tobacco or
alcohol, whose use is far more widespread.
• Over the last decade, at least, the area under global coca production declined (-33% over the
2000-2010 period), though production appears to have remained basically stable. The area under
illegal opium poppy cultivation declined by 12% (2000-2010) or 26% over the 1990-2010 period.
Illicit opium production increased until 2007 but declined by 21% between 2007 and 2011.
• The drug control system appears to have helped to stabilize overall drug use in recent years.
Drug use is still increasing in developing countries but has stabilized or partly declined in
developed countries. The drug problem – as reflected in drug related deaths - has also started to
stabilize in developed countries in recent years, though in some countries (notably the USA) it is
still increasing due to the misuse of prescription opioids.
• The strongest increases in the misuse of psychoactive substances – notably in recent years appear to have been for substances not under international control.
iii) Questions that remain open
because of lack of information