Click to edit Master title style 10 Capital Investment Analysis 1 Click to edit Master title style 10-1 Objective 1 Explain the nature and importance of capital investment analysis. 2 Capital Investment Analysis Click to edit Master title style 10-1 Capital investment analysis (or capital budgeting) is the process by which management plans, evaluates, and controls investments in fixed assets. 3 Click to edit Master title style Objective 2 Evaluate capital investment proposals, using the following methods: average rate of return, cash payback, net present value, and internal rate of return. 10-2 4 Methods of Evaluating Capital Investment Proposals Click to edit Master title style 10-2 Methods that ignore present values: The average rate of return method The cash payback method Methods that use present values: The net present value method The internal rate of return method 5 Percentage of Respondents Reporting the Use of the Method as “Always” or “Often” Click to edit Master title style Average rate of return Cash payback method Net present value method Internal rate of return method 10-2 15% 53% 85% 76% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Source: Patricia A. Ryan and Glenn P. Ryan. “Capital Budgeting Practices of the Fortune 1,000. How Have Things Changed? Journal of Business and Management (Winter 2002). 96 Average Rate of Return Method Click to edit Master title style 10-2 Advantages: Easy to calculate Considers accounting income (often used to evaluate managers) Disadvantages: Ignores cash flows Ignores the time value of money 7 Purchase of Machine Example Click to edit Master title style 10-2 Assumptions: Machine cost Expected useful life Residual value Expected total income Average rate = of return Average rate = of return $500,000 4 years none $200,000 Estimated Average Annual Income Average Investment $200,000/4 = 20% ($500,000 + $0)/2 8 11 Click to edit Master title style 10-2 Proposal A Proposal B Estimated average annual income Average investment Average rate of return $ 30,000 $120,000 $ 36,000 $180,000 25% $30,000 $120,000 9 12 Click to edit Master title style 10-2 Proposal A Proposal B Estimated average annual income Average investment Average rate of return $ 30,000 $120,000 25% Proposal A would be preferred over Proposal B. $ 36,000 $180,000 20% $360,000 $180,000 10 13 10-2 Click to edit Master title style Example Exercise 10-1 Determine the average rate of return for a project that is estimated to yield total income of $273,600 over three years, cost $690,000, and has a $70,000 residual value. Follow My Example 10-1 Est. average annual income: $91,200 ($273,600/3 years) Average investment: $380,000 ($690,000 + $70,000)/2 Average rate of return: 24% ($91,200/$380,000) For Practice: PE 10-1A, PE 10-1B 11 14 Cash Payback Method Click to edit Master title style 10-2 The expected period of time that will pass between the date of an investment and the complete recovery in cash (or equivalent) of the amount invested is the cash payback period. 12 Click to edit Master title style 10-2 The excess of cash flowing in from revenue over the cash flowing out for expenses is termed net cash flow. 13 Click to edit Master title style Assumptions: Investment cost Expected annual net cash flow (equal) 10-2 $200,000 $40,000 Cash payback = period Total Investment Annual Net Cash Flow Cash payback = period $200,000 = 5 years $40,000 14 17 Advantages and Disadvantages of the Cash Payback Method Click to edit Master title style 10-2 Advantages: Considers cash flows Shows when funds are available for reinvestment Disadvantages: Ignores profitability (accounting income) Ignores cash flows after the payback period 15 10-2 Click to edit Master title style Example Exercise 10-2 A project has estimated annual net cash flows of $30,000. It is estimated to cost $105,000. Determine the cash payback period. Follow My Example 10-2 3.5 years ($105,000/$30,000) For Practice: PE 10-2A, PE 10-2B 16 21 Present Value Concepts Click to edit Master title style 10-2 Present value concepts can be divided into: the present value of an amount and the present value of an annuity. 17 Present Value of an Amount Click to edit Master title style 10-2 On January 1, 2008, you invest $1 in an account that earns 12% interest compounded annually. Interest earning interest is called compounding. 18 Present Value Concepts Click to edit Master title style $1.00 $1.00 $1.00 x 1.12 $1.12 x 1.12 $1.12 10-2 $1.254 x 1.12 $1.254 $1.404 19 24 Click to edit Master title style 10-2 Assume that today is January 1, 2008 and the current interest rate is 12 percent. What is the present value of $1,404 to be received on January 1, 2011? To determine the answer, we need to go to Exhibit 1 and find the table value for three years at 12 percent. 20 Partial Present Value of $1 Table Click to edit Master title style 10-2 Present Value of $1 with Compound Interest Year 1 6% 0.943 10% 0.909 12% 0.893 15% 0.870 20% 0.833 2 0.890 0.826 0.797 0.756 0.694 3 0.840 0.751 0.658 0.579 4 0.792 0.683 0.712 0.636 0.572 0.482 5 0.747 0.621 0.567 0.497 0.402 6 0.705 0.564 0.507 0.432 0.335 Left click the mouse for solution. 21 26 Click to edit Master title style 10-2 Table x Amount to be received on Present value = value January 1, 2011 Present value = 0.712 x $1,404 Present value = $1,000.00 (rounded) Summary: If the interest rate is 12%, then $1,404 in three years is worth $1,000 today. 22 27 Present Value of an Annuity Click to edit Master title style 10-2 An annuity is a series of equal net cash flows at fixed time intervals. The present value of an annuity is the amount of cash needed today to yield a series of equal net cash flows at fixed time intervals in the future. 23 Net Present Value Method Click to edit Master title style 10-2 The net present value method (also called the discounted cash flow method) analyzes capital investment proposals by comparing the initial cash investment with the present value of the net cash flows. 24 Equipment Example Click to edit Master title style 10-2 At the beginning of 2008, equipment with an expected life of five years can be purchased for $200,000. At the end of five years it is anticipated that the equipment will have no residual value. (Continued) 25 Equipment Example Click to edit Master title style 10-2 A net cash flow of $70,000 is expected at the end of 2008. This net cash flow is expected to decline $10,000 each year (except 2012) until the machine is retired. The firm expects a minimum rate of return of 10%. Should the equipment be purchased? (Continued) 26 10-2 Equipment Example Click to edit Master title style $(200,000) $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $40,000 $ 63,630 $70,000 x 0.909 (n = 1; i =10%) (Continued) 27 32 10-2 Equipment Example Click to edit Master title style $(200,000) $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $40,000 $ 63,630 $ 49,560 $60,000 x 0.826 (n = 2; i = 10%) (Continued) 28 33 10-2 Equipment Example Click to edit Master title style $(200,000) $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $40,000 $ 63,630 $ 49,560 $ 37,550 $50,000 x 0.751 (n = 3; i = 10%) (Continued) 29 34 10-2 Equipment Example Click to edit Master title style $(200,000) $ $ $ $ 63,630 49,560 37,550 27,320 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $40,000 $40,000 x 0.683 (n = 4; i =10%) (Continued) 30 35 10-2 Equipment Example Click to edit Master title style $(200,000) $ $ $ $ $ 63,630 49,560 37,550 27,320 24,840 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $40,000 $40,000 x 0.621 (n = 5; i = 10%) (Continued) 31 36 10-2 Equipment Example Click to edit Master title style $(200,000) $ $ $ $ $ $ $70,000 $60,000 63,630 49,560 37,550 27,320 24,840 2,900 Net present value $50,000 $40,000 $40,000 The equipment should be purchased because the net present value is positive. Total present value of the net cash flow is $202,900 (Concluded) 32 37 Present Value Index Click to edit Master title style 10-2 When capital investment funds are limited and the alternative proposals involve different amounts of investment, it is useful to prepare a ranking of the proposals by using a present value index. 33 Click to edit Master title style Present value index = Present value index = 10-2 Total present value of net cash flow Amount to be invested $202,900* $200,000 = 1.0145 34 39 Ranking Various Proposals Using a Present Value Index Click to edit Master title style 10-2 Proposal A Proposal B Proposal C Total present value of net cash flow $107,000 Amount to be invested 100,000 Net present value $ 7,000 Present value index $86,400 80,000 $ 6,400 $86,400 90,000 $ 3,600 1.07 $107,000 $100,000 35 40 Click to edit Master title style 10-2 Proposal A Proposal B Proposal C Total present value of net cash flow $107,000 Amount to be invested 100,000 Net present value $ 7,000 Present value index 1.07 $86,400 80,000 $ 6,400 $86,400 90,000 $ 3,600 1.08 $86,400 $80,000 36 41 10-2 Click to edit Master title style Proposal A Proposal B Proposal C Total present value of net cash flow $107,000 Amount to be invested 100,000 Net present value $ 7,000 Present value index 1.07 $86,400 80,000 $ 6,400 1.08 $86,400 90,000 $ 3,600 0.96 $86,400 $90,000 37 42 Click to edit Master title style 10-2 Proposal A Proposal B Proposal C Total present value of net cash flow $107,000 Amount to be invested 100,000 Net present value $ 7,000 Present value index 1.07 $86,400 80,000 $ 6,400 $86,400 90,000 $ 3,600 1.08 Proposal B has the best present value index. Management should consider the possible use of the $20,000 difference between Proposal A and Proposal B before making a decision. 0.96 38 43 Click to edit Master title style 10-2 A proposal is made to acquire $200,000 of equipment with an expected useful life of five years (no residual value) and a minimum desired rate of return of 10%. The new equipment is expected to generate a net cash inflow of $50,000 each year. Should the firm acquire the equipment? 44 39 10-2 Click to edit Master title style Present Value Equal Annual x Table Value of an Annuity = from Exhibit 2 Cash Flows of $1 Present Value Table Value x of an Annuity = $50,000 from Exhibit 2 of $1 Refer to Exhibit 2 40 45 Partial Present Value of an Annuity Table Click to edit Master title style 10-2 Present Value of an Annuity of $1 at Compound Interest Year 6% 1 0.943 10% 0.909 12% 0.893 15% 0.870 20% 0.833 2 1.833 1.736 1.690 1.626 1.528 3 2.673 2.487 2.402 2.283 2.106 4 3.465 3.170 3.037 2.855 2.589 5 4.212 3.605 3.353 2.991 6 4.917 3.791 3.791 4.355 4.111 3.785 3.326 7 5.582 4.868 4.564 4.160 3.605 8 6.210 5.335 4.968 4.487 3.837 41 46 Click to edit Master title style 10-2 Present Value of an Annuity = $50,000 x 3.791 of $1 $189,550 = $50,000 x 3.791 Present Value Index = $189,550 = 0.948 $200,000 The proposal should be rejected because the present value index is less than one. 42 47 Advantage and Disadvantage of Net Present Value Method Click to edit Master title style 10-2 Advantage: Considers cash flows and the time value of money Disadvantage: Assumes that cash received can be reinvested at the rate of return 43 10-2 Click to edit Master title style Example Exercise 10-3 A project has estimated annual net cash flows of $50,000 for seven years and is estimated to cost $240,000. Assume a minimum acceptable rate of return of 12%. Using Exhibit 2, determine the (a) net present value of the project and (b) the present value index, rounded to two decimal places. 44 49 10-2 Click to edit Master title style Follow My Example 10-3 (a) ($11,800) [($50,000 x 4.564) – $240,000] (b) 0.95 ($228,200/$240,000) 50 45 For Practice: PE 10-3A, PE 10-3B Internal Rate of Return Method Click to edit Master title style 10-2 The internal rate of return (IRR) method (sometimes called the time-adjusted rate of return method) uses present value concepts to compute the rate of return from the net cash flows expected from capital investment proposals. 46 Click to edit Master title style 10-3 Objective 3 List and describe factors that complicate capital investment analysis. 47 Factors that Complicate Capital Investment Analysis Click to edit Master title style 10-3 Income tax Unequal proposal lives Lease versus capital investment Uncertainty Changes in price levels Qualitative considerations 48 Capital Rationing Click to edit Master title style 10-4 Capital rationing is the process by which management allocates funds among competing capital investment proposals. 49