A LOOK AT TRENDS IN PROMOTION
ACTIVITY AND SHOPPER BEHAVIOR
Andrew W. Coleman
Senior Analytics Lead, Promotion Analytics / Inmar
Session agenda
1. Introduction
2. Definitions and
methodology
3. Topline findings
4. Economic conditions
5. Promotion landscape
6. NEW: Canadian trends
7. Spotlight: Digital trends
8. Conclusions and
predictions
9. Questions
© 2015 Inmar, Inc.
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• Senior Analytics Lead, Promotion Analytics
• Background in creative and digital brand
management
• Agency and client-side perspective
• Loves data, hates buzzwords
• New dad
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Percent change compares activity throughout
2014 with activity from 2013.
Distribution and redemption data consolidated
from the Inmar coupon database.
Industry distribution and redemption statistics
extrapolated using Inmar and Kantar Media data.
Analysis conducted to develop key insights.
Data cross-checked with major coupon
distributors and third-party vendors.
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• Manufacturer offers vs. coupon codes
• DEP (Dual electronic and paper)
• Digital vs. digital-ish
• EC (Electronic checkout)
• Convenience vs. accuracy
• IR vs. IRC
• EDO (Electronic discount opt-In / load2card)
• FSI (Free-standing insert)
• HO (Handout)
• IR (Instant redeemable)
• NET (Internet printable / print at home)
• SP (Shelf pad)
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2013
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2014
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2013
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2014
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Free-standing insert
Up from 87.4 % in
2013
Source: 2014 Inmar Coupon Trends
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Other
Dual electronic and paper
Down from 40.0%
in 2013
Free-standing
insert
Internet
Direct mail
Shelf pad
Electronic checkout
Instant redeemable cross ruff
Instant redeemable
Source: 2014 Inmar Coupon Trends
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180
160
140
120
2010
100
2011
2012
80
2013
2014
60
40
20
0
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August September October November December
Source: 2014 Inmar Coupon Trends
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130
120
110
100
2010
2011
90
2012
2013
80
2014
70
60
50
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August September October November December
Source: 2014 Inmar Coupon Trends
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2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
Source: 2014 Inmar Coupon Trends
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Food
Food
Non-Food
Non-Food
2013
2014
Source: 2014 Inmar Coupon Trends
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Food
Non-Food
Food
2013
Non-Food
2014
Source: 2014 Inmar Coupon Trends
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Average Redemption Rate: 2014
25.00%
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
FSI
Free-Standing Insert
© 2015 Inmar, Inc.
IR
Instant Redeemable
EC
Electronic Checkout
SP
Shelf Pad
NET
Internet Printable
/Print at Home
EDO
Electronic Discount
Opt-In / Load2Card
HO
Handout
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Average Redemption Rate: 2014
25.00%
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
FSI
Free-Standing Insert
© 2015 Inmar, Inc.
IR
Instant Redeemable
EC
Electronic Checkout
SP
Shelf Pad
NET
Internet Printable
/Print at Home
EDO
Electronic Discount
Opt-In / Load2Card
HO
Handout
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Consumer confidence increasing
Unemployment rate falling
Misery index falling
Gas prices falling
Retail improving, but CPG eCommerce lagging
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Face values getting sweeter
Units holding steady
Shrinking redemption period
Baskets and trips on the rise
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Average
face value
distributed
Average
redemption period
distributed
Average purchase
requirement
distributed
Source: 2014 Inmar Coupon Trends
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New Product Event
Dates in 2014
(814 in 2013)
Categories Featuring New
Product Events in 2014
(96 in 2013)
New Products Promoted
via FSI in 2014
(412 in 2013)
Source: Marx / Kantar Media
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Average face value distributed
$2.00
$1.90
$1.80
$1.70
$1.60
2014
$1.50
2013
2012
$1.40
$1.30
$1.20
$1.10
$1.00
FSI
Free-Standing Insert
IR
Instant Redeemable
EC
Electronic Checkout
SP
Shelf Pad
NET
EDO
HO
Internet Printable
/Print at Home
Electronic Discount
Opt-In / Load2Card
Handout
Source: 2014 Inmar Coupon Trends
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Average purchase requirement distributed (units)
2.20
2.00
1.80
2014
1.60
2013
2012
1.40
1.20
1.00
FSI
IR
EC
SP
NET
EDO
HO
Free-Standing Insert
Instant Redeemable
Electronic Checkout
Shelf Pad
Internet Printable
/Print at Home
Electronic Discount
Opt-In / Load2Card
Handout
Source: 2014 Inmar Coupon Trends
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Average redemption period distributed (months)
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
2014
2013
4.0
2012
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
FSI
Free-Standing Insert
IR
Instant Redeemable
EC
SP
Electronic Checkout
Shelf Pad
NET
Internet Printable
/Print at Home
EDO
Electronic Discount
Opt-In / Load2Card
HO
Handout
Source: 2014 Inmar Coupon Trends
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Average
face value
distributed
Average purchase
requirement
distributed
Average
redemption period
distributed
Source: 2014 Inmar Coupon Trends
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$200K +
142
$150K - $199K
144
$125K - $149K
146
$100K - $124K
140
$70K - $99K
139
$50K - $69K
138
$35K - $49K
141
$25K - $34K
142
< $25K
140
Basket Ring Per Trip
Trips Per Shopper
Source: Nielsen Homescan, 52 w/e 12/28/2013 - excludes gas-only or Rx-only trips
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8.0
(Billions)
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2012
2013
2014
Source: 2014 Inmar Promotions – Canada
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120.0
100.0
(Millions)
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
2012
2013
2014
Source: 2014 Inmar Promotions – Canada
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Source: 2014 Inmar Promotions – Canada
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2013
2014
Source: 2014 Inmar Promotions – Canada
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FSI
In/On Pack
In Store
Direct Mail
Magazine
Internet
Other
2014
Source: 2014 Inmar Promotions – Canada
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Source: 2014 Inmar Promotions – Canada
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• Still a small share of distribution
• Declining share of redemption
• Rich face values
2013: 5.0%
• Wide range of redemption rates
– Overall average:
– “Middle half” spans
Source: 2014 Inmar Coupon Trends
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• Similarly small share of distribution
• Growing share of redemption
• Decent face values
2013: 0.9%
• Average redemption rates:
‒ Overall average:
‒ “Middle half” spans
Source: 2014 Inmar Coupon Trends
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• Large share of distribution
• Large share of redemption
• Average face value
• Average redemption rate
‒ Overall average low
‒ Middle half spans
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Source: 2014 Inmar Coupon Trends
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“The eventuality of the world is a one-to-one
relationship with every consumer which
results in trust, loyalty – all the things that a
brand wants.”1
“I think the days of traditional mass
marketing are kind of over. Marketing has
to be a conduit into the multi-screen world
that everyone’s living in. How do you create
a two-way conversation?”2
Ann Muhkerjee,
SVP and CMO,
Frito-Lay North America
Bob McDonald
Former CEO & Chairman of the Board,
Procter & Gamble
SOURCE: 1) AdAge, AdAge Digital A-List: P&G, February 2011. 2) Business Insider, Frito-Lay CMO: The Days of Traditional Mass-Marketing are Over, July, 20, 2012
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Engagement coupons generate 5x redemption
of traditional print-at-home coupons4
SOURCE: 1) L2 Business Intelligence for Digital, “Where Consumers Look for Grocery Coupons”,
2) Institute for Advanced Analytics, NCSU September 2014,
© 2015 Inmar, Inc.
3) Knowledge Networks , Trend Report 2011; Coupons .com Digital User Behavior presentation 2011
4) 2014 Redemption Statistics, Hopster Coupon Platform
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• Multiple print technologies
• Industry best security options
• Seamless media integration
• Robust data capture
• Integrated engagement activities
• Accepted at all retailers
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• Personalized emails delivered
through retail partners
• Targeting capabilities match offers
with shoppers
• Maximize promotional dollars with
targeted offers
• Robust financial and behavioral data
capture
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In our client conversations, we have heard:
• Consumer promotion budgets have been shrinking and/or shifting (from national
programs to retail-specific / shopper marketing / activation strategies).
• Despite these cuts, brands continue to use remaining budgets to evolve their
marketing mix: to reach new shoppers, leverage new technologies and lead
innovation in their categories.
• There are also new and different ways to distribute offers that bypass traditional
clearing and settlement processes.
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• Ongoing decline of paper redemptions
• Continued rapid growth of digital distribution AND redemption
• Increased adoption of digital platforms by retailers
• Increasing sophistication across targeting methodologies
• Shoppers will continue to look for deals beyond established
distribution methods, and reward the companies that make it easy
for them to participate
• 10-digit mobile overtakes email address as primary unique identifier
• Coupon offers delivered directly to your Oculus Rift*
Not intended to be a factual prediction
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Andrew Coleman
andrew.coleman@inmar.com
@andrew_coleman
336.631.2973