2014 AGB Foundation Leadership Forum Creating a Sustainable Spending Policy Presented By: Laura Block, CPA, CFP Chief Financial Officer University of North Dakota Foundation Mary Jane (MJ) Bobyock, CFA SEI Director of Institutional Nonprofit Advice January 27, 2014 FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. © 2013 SEI 1 Numerous variables impact an endowment’s spending policy Support operating budget Donor expectations Liquidity needs Inflation Administrative costs Strategic initiatives Enrollment UPMIFA Inflation Capital market impact Calculation methodology Public vs. private Spending Policy Scholarships Drawdown risk Fundraising Purchasing power Budget Government support Underwater endowments Capital campaigns Financial aid Restricted vs. unrestricted FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 2 Volatile investment environment leads organizations to make spending policy changes Combining diligent spending analysis with asset allocation decisions can help to balance shortterm cash needs with long term portfolio growth goals Increased focus on finding the right level of spending as a result of: • Lower expected returns from investment markets • Higher demands for the use of endowment assets In light of a recent volatile investment environment, 61% of poll respondents said their organizations have made a change to their spending policies since 2008 SEI’s Nonprofit Management Research Panel conducted a survey on spending methodologies in Spring 2013 Respondents included: • 260 U.S. nonprofit leaders, finance executives, and investment committee members • Oversee endowments ranging in size from $25 million to $6 billion in assets Footer FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 3 An organization’s hurdle rate drives future strategic asset allocation • Once a hurdle rate is determined, it drives the strategic asset allocation, balanced by the risk objectives of the organization • The example below shows a sample of what client portfolio allocations might look like based on unique hurdle rates and risk metrics associated with each allocation Client Hurdle-Rate Objective is the long-term return needed by the client to cover its spending rate + inflation expectations + any related fees. Footer FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 4 Spending policies by organization type SEI’s Nonprofit Management Research Panel Survey (Spring 2013) FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 5 Colleges and universities spending policy & effective rates SEI’s Nonprofit Management Research Panel Survey (Spring 2013) • Average spending policy based on size – <$100M = 4.19% – $100-300M = 4.61% – >$300M = 4.54% • Average spending policy based on type – Private = 4.71 – Public = 4.47 NACUBO-Commonfund Study of Endowments 2014 Effective spending rates (vs. policies) 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 4.4% 4.2% 4.6% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 6 Strategies for calculating the annual spending rate Methodology (Response) Moving average (79%) based on rolling 3 or 5 year MVs Hybrid (Yale) Model (15%) weighted average of previous year spending plus moving average Banded inflation (6%) floors and ceilings, adjusted for inflation PROS CONS Smoother spending amount year-to-year Lower spending dollars when market returns are strong Compromise between budget needs and long term asset health Heavier weight to fixed spending can reduce purchasing power of the assets over long-term More consistency in budgeting forecasting process Spending rate may be outside policy and in poor market return environment erode long-term purchasing power FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 7 Case Study: University of North Dakota Foundation A process for analyzing potential changes and risks FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 8 Case study: Public University Endowment Organization Overview • A state university foundation overseeing the endowment • Approximately $200M in assets and over 13,000 annual contributors • Acts as centralized infrastructure to support all private fund raising efforts on behalf of the University • Shares resources with its sister organization – the University’s alumni association Key Factors Goals • Administrative fee charged at donor level supports operations of endowment but is high compared to peers • Quantify impact of different levels of administrative fees on endowment hurdle rate, assets and operating revenue FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 9 University of North Dakota Foundation Observations and assumptions used in analysis: Sept 2012 • Current market value of Foundation is $195 Million • Spending policy is 4% – Review based on 4 quarter and 12 quarter methodologies • Administrative fee is currently 2% which covers the administrative and operational costs of running the Foundation and affiliated fundraising – Review impact of reducing fee percentage over time as asset values increase • • • • Long term inflation assumption is 2% Total return or “Hurdle” rate is 8% -- in line with NACUBO research Year by year cash flow detail from the Pledge Cash Flow report was included Additional inflows of $1 million each from both the Irrevocable Planned Detail Report and Revocable Planned Detail report were included FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 10 How we create probability distributions and what they mean • The probability distribution graphs and / or tables that follow are meant to provide an overview of the range of possible outcomes for a given variable (e.g., returns, pension contributions, expense) for a given asset allocation. modeling tool and simulated capital market behavior. • Capital market behavior is simulated for 1,000 possible scenarios based on expected performance of each asset class and reflecting current economic conditions. Capital market assumptions such as return, standard deviation and covariances are inputs into this process, combining with model parameters to create market scenarios. 20 percentile: 50% of outcomes are greater than this amount, and 50% are less scenarios for each variable being considered. output variables, falling between the 5% and 95% results, based on SEI Capital Market Assumptions. 95th Percentile 18 50th • We use these 1,000 capital market scenarios to create 1,000 output • A 90% confidence interval should be interpreted as 90% of the projected 22 16 75th Percentile 14 $ Millions • The probability distributions are generated using SEI’s proprietary Distribution of Probable Outcomes 95th percentile: 95% of outcomes are less than or equal to this value 5th percentile: 5% of outcomes are less than or equal to this value • This projection is hypothetical in nature, does not reflect actual investment 12 10 Median (50th Percentile) 8 6 25th Percentile 4 2 5th Percentile 0 results and is not a guarantee of future results. About Capital Market Assumptions • SEI Investment Management Corporation develops forward-looking, long-term capital market assumptions for risk, return, and correlations for a variety of global asset classes, currencies, interest rates, and inflation. • These assumptions are created using a combination of historical analysis, future market environment expectations and by applying our own judgment. In certain cases, alpha and tracking error estimates for a particular asset class are also factored into the assumptions. • We believe this approach is less biased than using pure historical data, which may be affected by unsustainable trends or permanent material shifts in market conditions. FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 11 University of North Dakota Current Portfolio 11.0 Russell 1000 Large Cap Index 11.0 Small Cap Equity 3.0 World Equity ex-US 10.0 Emerging Markets Equity 3.0 Dynamic Asset Allocation 4.0 Total Equity 42.0 U.S. High Yield Emerging Markets Debt 4.0 3.0 Core Fixed Income 9.0 Diversified Short Term Fixed Income 2.0 Short Term Corporate Fixed Income 2.0 Total Fixed Income 20.0 Multi-Asset 5.0 Total Inflation Protection/Real Assets 5.0 Low Volatility Hedge 4.0 Moderate Volatility Hedge 6.0 Structured Credit 3.0 Private Real Estate 5.0 Global Private Capital 7.0 Distressed Debt 5.0 Natural Resources Total Alternatives/Other 33.0 Expected Return (Net of Fees) 7.3% Standard Deviation 12.6% Sharpe Ratio Risk of Loss (5th percentile) 3.0 0.42 -11.4% Expected Return Distribution (simulations) 40% POTENTIAL OUTCOMES 30% 29.8% Good Scenarios (95th Percentile) 75th Percentile 20% RETURN (%) Asset Class U.S. Large Cap Fundamental Equity 16.0% 10% Median (50th Percentile) 25th Percentile 7.3% 0% Poor Scenarios (5th Percentile) -0.8% -10% -11.4% -20% Current Portfolio *Net of Fees FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 12 10 year distribution of fund values: Analyzing different administrative fees 4% Spending Policy Over a 3 Year Moving Average of Market Values + Administrative Fee + 2% Inflation Assumption + Inv Management Fee No Contributions assumed in this analysis Nominal Values Real Values 600 600 500 500 POTENTIAL OUTCOMES 486.70 Millions($) Millions($) 465.10 400 300 200 400 423.70 Good Scenarios (95th Percentile) 404.70 Median (50th Percentile) 300 243.00 231.00 192.20 182.40 145.90 138.10 100 25th Percentile 200 100 76.00 71.60 0 75th Percentile 204.60 194.60 154.10 146.20 117.00 110.80 60.50 56.90 1.5% Administrative Fee 2% Administrative Fee Poor Scenarios (5th Percentile) 0 1.5% Administrative Fee 2% Administrative Fee *Net of Fees. Starting Market Value: $169mm FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 13 Cumulative spending vs. administrative fees 4% Spending Policy Over a 3 Year Moving Average of Market Values + Administrative Fee + 2% Inflation Assumption + Inv Management Fee No Contributions assumed in this analysis $120,000,000.00 $120,000,000.00 $100,000,000.00 $100,000,000.00 $80,000,000.00 $80,000,000.00 $60,000,000.00 $60,000,000.00 $40,000,000.00 $40,000,000.00 $20,000,000.00 $20,000,000.00 $- $2014 4% Spending ($) 2016 2018 2020 2022 1.5% Administrative Fee ($) 2024 2014 2016 4% Spending ($) 2018 2020 2022 2024 2% Administrative Fee ($) *Net of Fees FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 14 10 year distribution of fund values Analyzing different spending policies: 4% vs. 5% Spending Policy Over a 3 Year Moving Average of Market Values + 2% Administrative Fee + 2% Inflation Assumption + Inv Management Fee No Contributions assumed in this analysis Real Values 600 600 500 500 465.10 400 424.00 Good Scenarios (95th Percentile) 404.70 75th Percentile 368.70 Median (50th Percentile) 25th Percentile 231.00 208.00 182.40 100 400 POTENTIAL OUTCOMES 300 300 200 Millions($) Millions($) Nominal Values 200 194.60 175.30 163.70 138.10 123.40 71.60 146.20 100 63.30 110.80 Poor Scenarios (5th Percentile) 131.10 99.20 56.90 50.30 4% Spending 5% Spending 0 0 4% Spending 5% Spending *Net of Fees. Starting Market Value: $169mm FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 15 10 year spending on current portfolio Spending Policy Over a 3 Year Moving Average of Market Values + 2% Administrative Fee + 2% Inflation Assumption + Inv Management Fee No Contributions assumed in this analysis $12,000,000.00 $10,000,000.00 $8.81M $8.24M $8.10M $8,000,000.00 $6.87M $6,000,000.00 $4,000,000.00 $2,000,000.00 $2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 4% Spending Policy 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5% Spending Policy *Net of Fees FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 16 15% market shock on current portfolio in 2016 Spending Policy Over a 3 Year Moving Average of Market Values + 2% Administrative Fee + 2% Inflation Assumption + Inv Management Fee No Contributions assumed in this analysis $200,000,000 $14,000,000 $180,000,000 $12,000,000 $11,953,667 $160,000,000 $10,337,128 $140,000,000 $8,391,574 $9,295,503 $10,000,000 $120,000,000 $8,000,000 $100,000,000 $6,000,000 $80,000,000 $60,000,000 $4,000,000 $40,000,000 $2,000,000 $20,000,000 $- $2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 4% Spending Nominal 4% Spending Real 2021 2022 2023 5% Spending Nominal 5% Spending Real 5% Spending Policy 4% Spending Policy 2024 *Net of Fees FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 17 Impact of fundraising FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 18 10 year distribution of fund values: Analyzing different spending policies Spending Policy Over a 3 Year Moving Average of Market Values + 2% Administrative Fee + 2% Inflation Assumption + Inv Management Fee + $15 Million a year in Gifts and 2% in Market Growth 900 900 855.20 800 800 794.90 776.40 700 Millions($) Millions($) 700 600 500 498.50 POTENTIAL OUTCOMES 720.40 Good Scenarios (95th Percentile) 600 75th Percentile 500 Median (50th Percentile) 463.40 400 400 413.00 428.90 383.80 300 334.90 311.70 300 335.50 270.40 200 215.40 200.80 100 4% Spending 5% Spending 200 398.10 25th Percentile 311.80 Poor Scenarios (5th Percentile) 251.60 162.00 151.10 4% Spending 5% Spending 100 *Net of Fees. Starting Market Value: $169mm FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 19 10 year distribution of cumulative spending Spending Policy Over a 3 Year Moving Average of Market Values + 2% Administrative Fee + 2% Inflation Assumption + Inv Management Fee + $15 Million a year in Gifts and 2% in Market Growth $180.00 $169.59 $160.00 $150.84 Millions($) $140.00 $120.00 $100.00 $80.00 $60.00 $40.00 $20.00 $2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 4% Spending Policy 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5% Spending Policy *Net of Fees. Starting Market Value: $169mm FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 20 SEI Capital Market Assumptions - short term - July 2013 Compound Return Risk Arithmetic Return Emerging Markets Equity 8.53% 30.34% 13.13% World Equity ex-US 8.39% 21.18% 10.63% US Private Equity 11.76% 20.11% 13.78% Private Equity 11.32% 18.89% 13.10% Core Fixed Income 3.87% 6.58% 4.08% U.S. High Yield 7.68% 12.17% 8.42% Emerging Markets Debt 8.24% 15.52% 9.44% Moderate Volatility Hedge 8.64% 10.53% 9.20% Low Volatility Hedge 5.95% 7.05% 6.20% US Small Cap Equity 9.12% 23.44% 11.87% US Large Cap Fundamental Equity 8.12% 19.09% 9.94% Short Term Corporate Fixed Income 2.94% 4.07% 3.03% Diversified Short Term Fixed Income 3.48% 5.56% 3.63% Structured Credit 8.42% 21.00% 10.62% Russell 1000 Large Cap Index 6.99% 19.00% 8.79% Dynamic Asset Allocation 9.30% 19.92% 11.29% Multi-Asset 3.77% 10.19% 4.29% Private Real Estate 6.30% 11.84% 7.00% Inflation: 2.00% Please see important disclosures on prior slide and at the back of the presentation. FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 21 SEI Capital Market Assumptions - short term - July 2013 Emerging World Markets Equity Correlations Equity ex-US -1.00 Emerging Markets Equity 1.00 US Core Private Private Fixed Equity Equity Income -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 US US Large Short Term Diversified U.S. Emerging Moderate Low Small Cap Corporate Short Term High Markets Volatility Volatility Cap Fundament Fixed Fixed Structured Yield Debt Hedge Hedge Equity al Equity Income Income Credit -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 Russell 1000 Large Dynamic Private Cap Asset Multi- Real Index Allocation Asset Estate -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 World Equity ex-US 0.78 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 US Private Equity 0.75 0.75 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 Private Equity 0.70 0.88 0.80 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 Core Fixed Income 0.00 0.19 0.10 0.28 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 U.S. High Yield 0.60 0.56 0.70 0.70 0.40 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 Emerging Markets Debt 0.80 0.66 0.60 0.65 0.50 0.75 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 Moderate Volatility Hedge 0.55 0.56 0.60 0.65 0.30 0.63 0.55 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 Low Volatility Hedge 0.40 0.42 0.45 0.47 0.22 0.41 0.40 0.97 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 US Small Cap Equity US Large Cap Fundamental Equity Short Term Corporate Fixed Income Diversified Short Term Fixed Income Structured Credit Russell 1000 Large Cap Index Dynamic Asset Allocation 0.70 0.80 0.85 0.83 0.20 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.45 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 0.75 0.86 0.85 0.89 0.30 0.60 0.65 0.64 0.46 0.90 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 0.20 0.19 0.00 0.33 0.70 0.55 0.35 0.20 0.15 0.15 0.20 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 0.40 0.37 0.35 0.56 0.40 0.80 0.50 0.10 0.10 0.40 0.40 0.85 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 0.45 0.47 0.60 0.61 0.00 0.80 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.88 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 0.75 0.86 0.85 0.89 0.30 0.60 0.65 0.65 0.45 0.90 1.00 0.20 0.40 0.50 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 0.75 0.86 0.85 0.89 0.30 0.60 0.65 0.64 0.46 0.90 1.00 0.20 0.40 0.50 1.00 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 Multi-Asset 0.45 0.34 0.35 0.34 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.25 0.20 0.40 0.25 0.40 0.45 0.40 0.25 0.25 1.00 -1.00 Private Real Estate 0.35 0.39 0.30 0.56 0.10 0.40 0.35 0.35 0.25 0.30 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.30 1.00 Please see important disclosures on prior slide and at the back of the presentation. FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 22 Best practices Your hurdle rate has several levers you can adjust to impact asset allocation: Spending Liquidity/cash flow flexibility Inflation Administrative/investment fees Level of confidence Long term growth Test impact from multiple spending policies • Spending rate • Calculation methodology • Shock analysis Examine use of immunization strategy • Would it benefit the long term assets to have you upcoming cash flow commitments in a separate short term pool? • Liquidity profile Inflation erosion impact • Is it important to be spending the same in real terms in twenty years as you are currently? Are your asset values after adjusting for long -term inflation at least the same as they are today? • Cost of fees • Do you include administrative or investment fees in your hurdle rate? • What is the impact of reducing those fees on spending? Long term assets? Asset allocation? Cash flow considerations • Incorporate projections of incoming and outgoing flows; what is the level of confidence on the predictability? • Fundraising and Capital Expenditure Initiatives FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 23 Disclosures This presentation is provided by SEI Investments Management Corporation (SIMC), a registered investment adviser and wholly owned subsidiary of SEI Investments Company. The material included herein is based on the views of SIMC. Statements that are not factual in nature, including opinions, projections and estimates, assume certain economic conditions and industry developments and constitute only current opinions that are subject to change without notice. Nothing herein is intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. This presentation should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice (unless SIMC has otherwise separately entered into a written agreement for the provision of investment advice). There are risks involved with investing including loss of principal. There is no assurance that the objectives of any strategy or fund will be achieved or will be successful. No investment strategy, including diversification, can protect against market risk or loss. Current and future portfolio holdings are subject to risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For those SEI funds which employ a “manager of managers” structure, SIMC is responsible for overseeing the sub-advisers and recommending their hiring, termination, and replacement. References to specific securities, if any, are provided solely to illustrate SIMC’s investment advisory services and do not constitute an offer or recommendation to buy, sell or hold such securities. FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 24 Disclosures IMPORTANT INFORMATION SIMC develops forward-looking, long-term capital market assumptions for risk, return, and correlations for a variety of global asset classes, interest rates, and inflation. These assumptions are created using a combination of historical analysis, current market environment assessment and by applying our own judgment. We believe this approach is less biased than using pure historical data, which is often biased by a particular time period or event. The asset class assumptions are aggregated into a diversified portfolio, so that each portfolio can then be simulated through time using a montecarlo simulation approach. This approach enables us to develop scenarios across a wide variety of market environments so that we can educate our clients with regard to the potential impact of market variability over time. Ultimately, the value of these assumptions is not in their accuracy as point estimates, but in their ability to capture relevant relationships and changes in those relationships as a function of economic and market influences. The projections or other scenarios in this presentation are purely hypothetical and do not represent all possible outcomes. They do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. All opinions and estimates provided herein, including forecast of returns, reflect our judgment on the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. These opinions and analyses involve a number of assumptions which may not prove valid. The performance numbers are not necessarily indicative of the results you would obtain as a client of SIMC. We believe our approach enables our clients to make more informed decisions related to the selection of their investment strategies. For more information on how SIMC develops capital market assumptions, please refer to the SEI paper entitled “Executive Summary: Developing Capital Market Assumptions for Asset Allocation Modeling.” If you would like further information on the actual assumptions utilized, you may request them from your SEI representative. FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 25