BRIGHAM YOUNG UNIVERSITY Managerial Economics 387 Economics of Strategy Winter Semester, 2009 David J. Bryce, Ph.D. Telephone: 422-2963 Strategy Group Office: 571 TNRB Department of Organizational Leadership and Strategy email: dbryce@byu.edu Marriott School Office Hours: M, W, 11:00-12:00 p.m. ________________________________________________________________________________ Course Description The objective of this course is to help students learn how to use economics to create and exploit the conditions of ‘imperfect competition’ to achieve superior profit performance for firms. This goal is a bit different from what you would expect to find in a traditional economics course. Traditional economics tends to focus on questions of economic welfare, efficiency, or social outcomes. In this course, we are instead concerned with understanding how economic forces influence a specific firm’s performance and discovering how those forces can be harnessed, leveraged, or exploited to improve the strategic prospects for the firm. The goal is to use economic and strategic reasoning to discover how a firm may develop advantageous positions relative to competitors and others who threaten profitability. Drawing from industrial organization and micro economics, we address a number of questions regarding the structure of markets and how managers can strategically maneuver within this structure to improve firm performance. For example, how can market power be secured relative to buyers, suppliers, or potential entrants? How should a manager respond to the threat of a new rival entering its market? How should a firm price its product, or select production quantities, or choose new markets for entry? How should a firm make decisions under dynamic conditions in which rivals repeatedly react to the moves of the firm? We will learn the economic tools and analytical techniques that are crucial to addressing these questions. These tools include analysis of demand and supply, production, elasticity, transaction costs, and game theory, to name a few. The perspective taken in this course is the perspective of the CEO or general manager who must manage the many strategic issues facing the enterprise. Throughout the course, in both cases and class discussion, you will apply your learning to business situations and place yourself in the decision making role of the CEO or general manager. Thinking like a general manager is an important skill to develop early in your business education. Even if your intended career is entirely within a functional discipline, your responsibilities will often require you to provide inputs into the strategic management decisions of the general manager. 1 Learning Objectives The ultimate objective of the course is for you to develop a solid foundation for competent strategic and economic analysis. Developing good strategy for firms requires an analytical, problem-solving approach. This course is designed to provide you with numerous economic tools in pursuit of this goal. As you master the tools of economic analysis and how they apply to strategic problems, you will become skilled at strategic reasoning and capable of assessing or developing good strategy in any business situation. Following are specific learning objectives: 1. Acquire skill in applying the tools of economic analysis to management problems 2. Develop competent understanding of competitive environments, competitive rivalry, cost, entry, and demand & supply 3. Develop strategic reasoning ability 4. Anticipate the likely effects of different strategies on company outcomes utilizing principles of economic and strategic analysis 5. Communicate effectively, both orally and in writing, concerning economic concepts, models, and analyses 6. Demonstrate team skills through active participation in group discussions and projects and the assumption and exercise of responsibility in a collaborative mode These learning objectives will be assessed through several different modes, including evaluations of class participation, team member evaluations of team contribution, performance on midterm and final exams, performance on group exercises and the group project, and demonstration of mastery of strategy fundamentals and concepts. Course Content Two fundamental approaches exist for strategic analysis. One is to take an external perspective of the context in which the firm operates. The second is to take an internal perspective of the capabilities of the firm. This course stresses the former perspective, while touching lightly upon the latter. The required course, BM498 (or BM 480), taken by all seniors at the Marriott School, formally introduces students to the latter perspective, while touching lightly upon the former. The external environment impacts the firm in important ways. This happens through a number of ‘forces’ that collectively define the structure of a firm’s industry. Forces we will examine in depth include customer power and preferences, bargaining power of suppliers, the presence of product substitutes or complements, the threat of new entrants, and the nature of competitive rivalry. We will use these five basic forces as a framework for in-depth discussion of the economics facing the firm. These forces exist in every industry and help to define the nature of competition. What is less well-understood, however, is what the manager can do about these forces when they negatively impact the firm, or how the general manager can maneuver to use or enhance the forces to the firm’s advantage. We will discuss a number of possible strategic responses or moves in these situations that can be used by the strategizing manager to mitigate negative effects and instead create outcomes that work in the firm’s favor. This is at least one of the ways in which the course goes beyond economics to contemplate strategy. My hope is that you will leave this course with a solid grasp of the economics of the firm and the various strategic options available to the firm under a variety of economic conditions. I further hope that you will develop insight into which strategic alternatives will have the greatest positive impact on the firm's strategic future. 2 Course Format During class sessions, we will cover economic and strategic concepts from the readings listed on the syllabus. For each session, there will typically be a chapter reading from the textbook, or a reading that will be available on blackboard. During class we will cover the conceptual material to some extent but spend much of the time discussing applications. Therefore, class preparation is an important aspect of the course. Without adequate preparation, you may find that class lecture provides an insufficient discussion of the material for which you will be responsible on exams. You are encouraged to work together in groups on class and case preparation. You must work together in your groups on written group assignments (see below). Course Materials Required Text: Michael R. Baye, Managerial Economics and Business Strategy. Any optional readings can be found on-line through the library website in the Business Source Premier database. To access these articles, go to the library main website, select databases, and click on the Business Source Premier database. Search by author and journal (usually Harvard Business Review). Class presentations and select material: Available on Blackboard Course Evaluation 1. Class Participation 2. Pop Quizzes 3. Mid-term Examination 5% 10% 20% 4. Group spreadsheet exercises (4) 10% 5. Group Project 25% 6. Final Examination 30% Class Participation (5%) Success in the business world requires participants to express valuable ideas, in persuasive ways, in public, and under pressure. Mastery of this ability is therefore fundamental to career success and an important part of business education. To aid in skill development in this area, we will use the classroom setting to mimic the corporate setting in which ideas are shared and debated. Effective participation is accomplished by focused comments that develop insights that are not immediately discernable from the cases or readings and that demonstrate mastery of reading and case materials. Comments might elucidate how a particular economic concept can be applied for benefit in a case or application, or how substantive problems presented in a particular situation are made tractable by particular approaches to thinking or analysis. Quality, not quantity of comments, is emphasized in class participation. Pop Quizzes (10%) To assist in learning and to encourage preparation, I will administer “pop” quizzes at the beginning of some class sessions. (There are usually 10-11 of these pop quizzes throughout the semester). Quizzes will cover a problem or concept from a previous day’s material, or they may address material for the current 3 day’s class (like chapter reading or homework). I will drop two quizzes at the end of the semester. Some concepts are best mastered through hands-on practice. For each chapter that we cover in the textbook, there are suggested problems listed that you will want to be certain that you can work correctly. These problems will help you to assess whether you understand the material; they will also give you exposure to some of the types of questions that will appear on exams. As a general rule, I will not collect homework; however, the pop quiz offered in class may include a problem from the previous day’s homework. You are encouraged to work on and discuss your homework with group members or other classmates outside of class. Pop quizzes may be either individual or group based. Group Spreadsheet Exercises (4) (10 %) You will be responsible for completing four group exercises. These exercises are designed to provide you with hands-on practice using tools and concepts from the course and are spreadsheet based. The Demand Exercise asks you to plot a demand curve, compute elasticities, and make inferences from your findings. The Economies of Scale exercise asks you to compute a scale-curve from a firm’s actual cost data. The Profit Maximization exercise asks you to compute revenue and cost curves to find a firm’s profit maximizing point. The Oligopoly exercise asks you to compute optimal pricing strategies for two local rivals. You will submit a brief print-out (one per group) of the results of your analysis on the due dates for the exercises. Group Project (25%) Each group will be responsible for preparing an analysis of a business situation using economic tools from class. You will choose a strategic problem facing a firm (either actually or hypothetically) and then conduct economic and strategic analysis on that problem. You will submit a 5-7 page report (plus exhibits) outlining your analysis and recommendations. More details to follow during the semester. Mid-term and Final Exam (20% and 30%) The mid-term exam will be held on Wednesday, February 11, in class. We will post-review the exam on Wednesday, February 18. The mid-term exam will consist of multiple choice and short answer questions. It will test your understanding of basic economic principles covered in the text but also ask you to apply concepts to reach meaningful conclusions in several mini-case settings. The final exam will be held in class at the official time outlined in the university final exam schedule. It will follow the same basic format as the mid-term exam and will also include the application of economic tools and thinking in the context of a case analysis. 4 Detailed Course Outline and Contents Session Date Module MANEC 387 Topic Case / Reading Winter 2009 Suggested Homework 1 2 1/5 1/7 Intro Course Overview Strategy and Economics Syllabus Math Review (Blackboard) (optional but encouraged) Michael Porter, How Competitive Forces Shape Strategy, Harvard Business Review, 1979 3 1/12 Buyers & Substitutes Demand Baye Ch. 2 (up to p. 45) Ch 2 (4,5,15) 4 5 1/14 1/21 Elasticity Case Analysis; In-class spreadsheet exercise: Demand Baye Ch. 3 (up to p. 95) Coca-Cola's New Vending Machine (Blackboard); Bryce, Elasticity and Revenue Maximization with Exponents (Blackboard) Ch 3 (1,2,3b,5,11) 6 1/26 Production and Cost Baye Ch. 5 7 1/28 8 2/2 Ch 5 (4,5,10); Demand exercise Due (1) Draft Project Proposals Due Ch 2 (6,10) Ch 6 (4,10); 9 2/4 10 2/9 11 12 Suppliers In class spreadsheet exercise: Economies of Scale Supplier Power Baye Ch. 2 (from p. 45) Baye Ch. 6 Economies of Scale exercise Due (2) Bring examples to class to turn in – 1 per group 2/11 Responding to Buyer, Supplier, and Read lecture notes prior to class substitute Power Responding to Buyer, Supplier, and substitute Power; Midterm Preview In-class Midterm Exam Industry Structure I – Perfect Competition Midterm Post-Review Industry Structure II – Monopoly Baye Ch. 7 Baye Ch. 8 (to p. 278) Ch 8 (2,9,10) 13 14 2/17 Rivalry (Tues) 2/18 2/23 Baye Ch. 8 (from p. 278) Ch 8 (4,5,12) 15 2/25 Simultaneous Games Baye Ch. 10 16 17 18 19 3/2 3/4 3/9 3/11 Repeated Games Sequential Games Sequential Games continued Industry Structure III - Oligopoly Baye Ch. 10 Baye Ch. 10 Profit Maximization Exercise due (3) Ch 10 (2,10,15) Ch 10 (6,7,17) 20 21 3/16 3/18 Entry Industry Structure III - Oligopoly Entry Barriers 22 23 24 25 26 27 3/23 3/25 3/30 4/1 4/6 4/8 ---- No class - work on projects -------- No class - work on projects ----Group Project presentations Group Project presentations Group Project presentations 28 4/13 Review Dynamics Baye Ch. 9 Bryce, Rivalry in Oligopoly (Blackboard) Ch 9 (2,4,5,10) Optional: Bryce and Dyer, Strategies Oligopoly Exercise due (4) to Crack Well-Guarded Markets, Harvard Business Review, 2007 Projects Due Course and Final Exam Review 5