Millennium Development Goals Status Report 2013 Summary KINGDOM OF LESOTHO Millennium Development Goals Summary Report 2013 CONTENTS: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. MDGs at a Glance............................. MDG 1............................................... MDG 2............................................... MDG 3............................................... MDG 4............................................... MDG 5............................................... MDG 6............................................... MDG 7............................................... MDG 8............................................... Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary 2 3 7 10 13 16 20 25 29 Page 1 MDGs at a Glance Goal 1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger 2. Achieve Universal primary education 3. Eliminate gender disparity at all levels. 4. Reduce child Mortality. 5. Reduce Maternal Mortality. 6. Combat HIV and AIDS and TB. 7. Ensure environmental sustainability 8. Develop global partnership for development. 2015 Target Reduce by half the proportion of people living on less than 1.25 dollars a day Achieve full and productive employment for all Reduce by half the proportion of people suffering from hunger Ensure that all children are able to complete primary education Gender equity in primary education. Gender equity in secondary education and tertiary Gender equity in the economy. Gender equity in the government and politics Reduce by two-thirds child Mortality rate Reduce by three-quarters maternal Mortality rate Halt and begin to reverse spread of HIV and AIDS Halt and begin to reverse incidence of TB. Halve the proportion of people without safe drinking water and sanitation Reverse loss of environmental resources Develop a conducive environment for trade and investment Make available new technology in cooperation with the private sector. Provide affordable access to essential drugs. Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary Progress Overall Assessment Off Track Off Track Off-Track Off Track On Track On Track On Track Off Track On Track On Track On Track Off Track Off Track Off Track Off track Slow progress Slow Progress Slow Progress Slow Progress Slow Progress Slow Progress Slow Progress On Track Slow Progress Slow Progress Page 2 Goal 1 Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary Page 3 Overview Lesotho has a biggest challenge in reducing poverty, hunger and income inequality. Currently, Lesotho cannot produce enough food to meet domestic demands and a larger proportion of rural population is still caught in poverty due to high rate of unemployment. Decline in agricultural productivity and inflation are also contributing to high poverty levels. TARGET 1: Reduce by half the proportion of people living on less than 1.25 dollars a day Indicators 1995 2003 2011 2015 Proportion of people below the national poverty line (%) 66.61 56.61 57.3 29 Poverty gap index (%) 37.85 28.97 28.7 17 GINI index 0.57 0.52 0.53 Trend Analysis Most of Basotho still live in poverty with very low incomes that are insufficient to acquire their daily basic needs. The proportion of households below the poverty line was 57.3%1 in 2011 increasing from 56.61% in 2003. Poverty gap index slightly decreased from 28.97 in 2003 to 28.7 in 2011. On the other hand, the degree of inequality in households’ incomes (measured by Gini coefficient) has increased from 0.522 in 2003 to 0.53 in 2011 showing increasing disparities between the rich and the poor. There are challenges that Lesotho faces in an attempt to eradicate poverty. These include among others, continued decline in remittances especially as a result of retrenched Basotho 1 2 workers from South African mines, lack of job opportunities for Basotho, decline in agricultural production, rising commodity prices and low participation of women in economic activities as female headed household (36%) are more vulnerable to hunger than male-headed households. Response to these challenges has been consistent with the following projects/programmes, amongst others, having been implemented: Joint Programme on Economic Growth and Development to accelerate shared and sustainable economic growth and Support to Financial Inclusion in Lesotho to improve and expand access to sustainable financial services in urban and rural areas. . Households Budget Survey 2011 Households Budget Survey 2003 Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary Page 4 TARGET 2: Achieve full and productive employment for all Indicators 2003 2008 2011 2015 Unemployment rate (%) 23.4 25.3 25.3 15 29 34.5(2 006) 11.8 Proportion of vulnerable employment in total employment (%) Trend Analysis Lesotho is faced with high unemployment rate which has persistently hovered around 25% for the past decade. There are factors that contributed to the high rate of unemployment and these include among others inadequate export diversification (the textile industry dominates the economy, contributing almost 90%3 of manufacturing jobs), especially in the manufacturing sector, which creates insufficient employment opportunities and lack of training on entrepreneurial skills especially among youth. Vulnerable employment on the other hand, which comprises unpaid family workers and the self-employed, has declined from 29% in 2003 to 11.8% in 2011. Lesotho was faced with a major decrease in the proportion of self-employed workers in total employment from 25.4 % in 2003 to 8%4 in 2011. Meanwhile, the proportion of unpaid family workers in total employment has consistently hovered around 5%. However, differences in survey methodologies render inter-year comparisons difficult for this indicator. Unemployment is very severe among youth, as a result the Government of Lesotho together with Development Partners have intervened through ‘Promotion of Youth Employment Towards Poverty Reduction Program’ which focuses on labour market information, policy environment, education system and entrepreneurial mindset, access to resource and promoting effective social dialogue. Fig 1.1 : Unemployment Rate from 1995 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1995 1997 1999 2003 2008 2011 Unemployment Rate Source: HBS (2003), Census (2006), ILFS (2008), LDS (2011) 3 BoS, Statistical Yearbook 2010. 4 Lesotho Demographic Survey 2011 Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary Page 5 .TARGET 3: Reduce by half the proportion of people suffering from hunger Indicators 2004 2009 2012 Prevalence of underweight children under 5 years 19.8 13.2 - Proportion of stunted children under 5 38.2 39.2 - 34(2003) 18.8 27.3 Proportion of population that is food insecure 2015 29 Trend Analysis Chronic malnutrition among young children is a health concern in Lesotho. The percentage of underweight children has declined from 19.8%5 in 2004 to 13.2%6 in 2009. This decrease in underweight children can be attributed to the implementation of short and long term food security and nutrition intervention programmes such as encouraging home garden food production, home-based income generating activities and supplementary feeding. Stunting has however increased from 38.2% in 2004 to 39.2% in 2009. This level of stunting is considered well above the emergency international threshold. Despite efforts made to address this problem, stunting still remains one of the key challenges facing children in Lesotho. During the period 2006 - 2009, Lesotho experienced declining levels of food production due to drought. However, the level of production increased in 2009/2010 leaving 10.7%7 of the total population in need of food assistance. It then started to decline in 2010/11 due to heavy rains that resulted in major floods; therefore the farming sector suffered major losses on crops and contributed to loss of seasonal employment opportunities. In the same year, drought plagued the planting season (August-October) therefore many farmers planted late or not at all. In the lowlands up to 60% of fields were left fallow8 hence the area planted declined from 238,524 ha in 2010 to 144,278 ha in 2011.9 Consequently, Lesotho Vulnerability Assessment Committee (LVAC) estimated that 39% of the population (726,000 people) would require food assistance in 2012/13. Fig. 1.2: Proportion of Population Requiring Food Assistance 50 38.7 40 30 29.5 28.8 27.3 24 18.8 20 13.1 10.7 10 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: USAID FFP-OFDA Food Security Assessment (2012) 7Lesotho 5Lesotho Demographic Health Survey 2004 6Lesotho Demographic Health Survey 2009 Vulnerability Assessment Committee 2008 FFP-OFDA Food Security Assessment, May 2012. 9MAFS/BoS, Lesotho Crop Forecasting Report 2011-2012. 8USAID Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary Page 6 Goal 2 Achieve Universal Primary Education Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary Page 7 Overview Education has been a core priority for the Government of Lesotho for a long time and has been devoted significant resources. Owing to these huge investments in education, Lesotho has been progressing well towards achieving universal access to education. At present, Lesotho is one of the countries with the highest literacy in the region. TARGET: Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, are able to complete a full course of primary schooling. 2000 2004 2009 2012 2015 (Goal) Literacy rate of 15-24 year-olds, women and men (%) N/a M: 82.5 F: 96.1 M: 87.4 F: 98.2 M: 87.4 F: 98.2 (2009) 100 Percentage of pupils starting grade 1 who reach last grade of primary (%) N/a 61.2 (2005) 62.8 65.5 100 Net enrolment ratio in primary education (%) 82 M: 78.7 F: 85.3 83 M: 81 F: 86 80.9 M: 78.6 F: 83.2 82.1 M: 79.6 F: 82.6 100 Indicator Trend Analysis In 2000, the Government of Lesotho introduced Free Primary Education (FPE), which greatly improved access to primary education. This led to a significant increase in the number of children enrolling in primary schools, as indicated by an increase in Net Enrolment Rate (NER) from 60.2% in 1999 to 82% in 2000. Total enrolments continued to rise until 2003, indicated by a growth of NER from 82% in 2000 to reach a peak at 85% in 2003. However, since 2004, enrolments started to decline and have been falling steadily since then. To curb this problem, in 2010, the Government passed the Education Act of 2010, making primary education not only free, but also compulsory. This not-withstanding, net enrolment rates continued to decline gradually from 81.8% in 2010 to reach 81.1% in 2012. This partially reflects the additional costs of education, including school books and uniforms, which many families struggle to afford. Furthermore, as a result of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, there is an increasing trend of children dropping out of school to assume responsibility in the household, especially caring for the family. Whilst access to education has improved and many children have enrolled in primary schools in Lesotho, as indicated by a NER that is sustained above 80%, there are pockets of disadvantaged children who are out of school, consisting mainly of herd-boys, learners with disabilities, orphans and other vulnerable children, who constitute around 20%. The downward trend in NER indicates slow progress towards the attainment of 100% NER goal in 2015. To address these challenges, Government provides bursaries and grants to vulnerable children and households and is continuing with the school feeding programme amongst other initiatives. Lesotho has one of the highest literacy rates in sub-Saharan Africa – 87.4% for males and 98.2% for females – so is on track to attain this MDG indicator. Net Cohort Survival Rate (NCSR) at primary level has also improved significantly over this period. In 2006, it stood at 40.9%, indicating that only 41% of children enrolled in Grade 1 in 2000 reached Grade 7 in 2006. Although this rate has Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary Page 8 been fluctuating, overall it has been improving and it increased to 65.5% in 2012. This implies that two-thirds of children enrolled in Grade 1 in 2006 reached Grade 7 in 2012. It is worrisome though, that one third did not reach Grade 7, as others repeated or dropped along the way. Lesotho has made significant progress in access indicators at primary level. High political support has meant that the Education Sector has continued to get around 20% of the annual budget. Even during the recent global meltdown when resources were limited, and when Government changed in 2012 this high level of budget allocation was sustained. Nevertheless, the progress is too slow and unless the Education Act, 2010 is enforced to bring all disadvantaged children in school, Lesotho is unlikely to meet MDG Goal 2 in 2015 as reflected in Figure 2.1 below. Fig. 2.1: Net Enrolment Ratio in Primary Education, 1990-2015 Actual and Desired Trends 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 1990 1995 2000 Male 2005 Female 2010 2015 Total Source: MoET, Education Statistics Bulletins 2001, 2012 Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary Page 9 Goal 3 Promote Gender Equality and Empower Women Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary Page 10 OVERVIEW Lesotho is performing well in its efforts to bridge the gender gap. In 2011 the World Economic Forum’s gender equality ratings ranked Lesotho 9th in the world. It is one of the few countries in Sub-Saharan Africa ensuring equal access to education. The ratio of females to males particularly in secondary and higher education is too high indicating that there is inequality in access to education. The country strives to promote equal opportunities for women, men, girls and boys so that development efforts may exert positive impact on all gender issues. Nevertheless, the Africa Peer Review Mechanism Report notes that the primacy accorded cultural beliefs and practices as articulated in Section 18(4) (c) of the Constitution entrenches gender-based discrimination and inhibits full development of human rights culture regardless of gender. Target: Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education preferably by 2005 and at all levels by 2015 Indicator 2001 2003 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 2015 Female-male ratio in primary education 101 100 97.8 97.6 96.4 105 104 100 34.4 42.6 - 42.5 - 54.4 56.1 50 10.6 17 22.9 22.9 22.9 25.3 30 128 127 131 134 136 136 133 100 118 104 107 112 123 146 146 100 Share of women in nonagricultural wage employment Percentage of seats held by women in parliament 10 Female-male ratio in secondary education Female-male ratio in tertiary education TREND ANALYSIS Lesotho has attained gender balance in primary education implying almost equal numbers of males and females in school. The statistics reflect that between the years 2000 and 2003 there was a marginal gender imbalance in favour of females, that is more girls than boys enrolled in primary school. In the year 2004, the situation changed until the year 2012 when results show more males than females enrolling in primary school. However, the situation is different in secondary school, where more females still enrol more than males and this inequality experienced in secondary school remains a concern in the country.The girl-boy ratio in secondary school initially fell from 22.9 149/100 in 1990 to a low of 126 in 2004, but it has now crept back up to 136. Furthermore, the female-male ratio for tertiary education has hovered around 110 females per 100 males during the past decade. The impact of this pattern is evident in long-term literacy and educational outcomes. Likewise, in tertiary level, the female enrolment is higher than that of the males except for the Lerotholi Polytechnic which has a higher male enrolment. According to the 2009 LDHS, 97% of women (aged 15-49) are literate compared to only 80% of men. Moreover, 52% of women havea secondary or higher education, while only 40% of males have achieved that distinction. Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary Page 11 Source: Education Statistics Reports 2001, 2003, 2003-2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 The share of women in formal wage employment in the non-agricultural sector has been high with an increase from 34% (2001) to 43% (2003 and 2008). The percentage continued to rise until it exceeded target of 50% in 2011 reaching 54.4% and 56.1% in 2012. Despite the progress achieved, women Chief Executive Officers and managers are still rare. Women occupy only 23% of the economic decision-making positions in government.Therefore, there is need to reform laws and customs that hinder female economic development. Lesotho has achieved slow but progressive improvement with respect to gender equality in Parliament. The proportion of women in Lesotho’s Senate has fluctuated around 30% since 1998 elections while female representation in the lower house has steadily increased. The total representation of women in Parliament has increased from 10.6% in the 1998 elections to 25.4% in 2012. Lesotho is within reach of the MDG target of 30% representation. Currently, the proportion of women in Cabinet is 21.7%. In 2005 the government made a proactive effort to ensure female representation by reserving 30% of all constituencies for only women contestants. Figure 3.2: Share of women in wage employment in the nonagricultural sector 1990-2015 Actual and Desired Trends 60 50 40 30 20 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Trend 2011 2013 2015 Target Sources: 2001 LDS, 2002/03 HBS, 2008 ILFS, 4th CMS 2010-2011, 3rd CMS 2011-2012 Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary Page 12 Goal 4 Reduce Child Mortality Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary Page 13 Overview The population of Lesotho has historically had better health than many sub Saharan African states. However, increasing poverty and high prevalence of HIV and AIDS has made families more vulnerable to ill health amongst other challenges. As one of the most vulnerable groups in the country, many children have been mostly affected by these challenges and these have led to high rates of child mortality. TARGET: Reduce the under-five mortality rate by two-thirds Indicators 2001 2004 2009 2011 2015 Under Five Mortality Rate(per 1,000 live births) 113 113 117 43 37 Infant mortality Rate(per 1,000 live births) 81 91 91 94 27 71.3 74.7 69.6 - 100 Percentage of 1 year-olds immunized against measles Trend Analysis One in every nine children born in Lesotho dies before reaching his or her fifth birthday. The proportion of children who die before their fifth birthday remained constant at 113 deaths per 1000 live births during the 2001-2004 period. It however increased to 117 deaths per 1000 live births between 2004 and 2009, but has decreased to 43 deaths per 1000 live births in 2011. Infant mortality has been increasing during the same period (2001- 2009) and has further increased to 94 deaths in 2011. Deaths occurring in the neonatal period (0-28 days) account for 40% of under-five mortality and deaths during the postnatal period (child birth to 6 weeks) account for 38%11. The greatest challenge to reducing child and infant mortality is a weak health care system coupled with poor family and community health practices. Even though there are a number of programmes12 to address child mortality, 11LDHS, 2009. Major programmes include the Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses strategy (IMCI), Infant and Young Child Nutrition Programmes. Expanded Programme on Immunization and the ‘Reaching Every District (RED)’ initiative 12 implementation has been slow and ineffective due to separate operational plans with weak integration. Figures 4.1 and 4.2 illustrate the actual and desired trends of infant and under five mortality rates. The Government of Lesotho has not been passive in its attempts to halt child mortality. The health sector’s programmes being implemented aim to ensure the survival and development of children through basic health services specifically Prevention of Mother to Child Transmission (PMTCT), nutrition and treatment of common childhood diseases and immunization. Immunization against measles is equally important, as it is the leading cause of mortality among vaccine-preventable childhood diseases. The universal immunization coverage against measles has been hindered by insufficient transport, inaccessibility of health centres and inadequate skilled personnel. The immunization coverage increased from 71.3% to 74.7% during the 2001-2004 period. It however declined to 69.6% in 2009. Inadequate transport, insufficient skilled personnel and frequent staff turnover are some of the key factors that have contributed to Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary Page 14 low coverage performance. Moreover, the decentralization of health services is not yet fully functioning, and districts still depend on the central level mobilization. planning and resource Figure 4.2 Infant Mortality Rate 2000-2015 Actual and Desired Trends Fig. 4.1: Under-Five Mortality Rate 2000-2015 Actual and Desired Trends 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 for 100 80 60 40 20 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Actual Trend Path to Goal 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Trend Source: LDS (2001, 2011) and LHDS (2004, 2009) Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary Path to Goal Source: LDS (2001, 2011) and LHDS (2004, 2009) Page 15 Goal 5 Improve Maternal Health Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary Page 16 Overview Lesotho’s maternal mortality ratio is one of the highest in the region despite the considerable efforts taken by Government together with different stakeholders. Though there has been some improvements in other maternal health indicators, there is still more work to be done in delivering a state where every pregnancy is safe. The improvement of these indicators raises a question over the quality of maternal health services – the expectation is that these improvements should be translated into a reduction in maternal deaths. TARGETS 1:Reduce by three quarters the maternal mortality ratio Indicator 2001 2004 2009 Maternal mortality ratio (per 100,000 births) Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel 2011 2015 419 762 1,155 1143 90 60.0 55.0 61.5 - 80 Trend Analysis Figure 5.1 Maternal Mortality Rate 1990 - 2015 Actual and Desired Trends 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 The Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) has increased from 762 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2004 to 1,155 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2009. This increase was followed by a slight decline to 1143 per 100,000 births in 2011. Using the 2004 baseline, the Government of Lesotho set a new target to 300 deaths per 100,000 live births by 2015 against the global target of 90 per 100,000 (derived from the 1990 baseline of 370 per 100,000 births). As it can be noted in figure 5.1 below, Lesotho is highly unlikely to meet this target unless accelerated measures are undertaken. Figure 5.2 provides a highlight on the causes of maternal deaths in Lesotho. Actual Trend Path to Goal Source:Trends in Maternal Mortality: 1990-2008WHO/UNICEF/UNFPA/WB; LDHS (2004,2009) and LDS (2001,2011) Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary Page 17 Fig. 5.2: Causes of Maternal Deaths Others 10% Ectopic Pregnancy 3% Postpartum Sepsis 34% Hemorrhage 7% Pre-eclampsia/ Eclampsia 12% Obstructed/ Prolonged Labour 14% Abortion Complications 20% Source: EmoC 2005 Many women, especially in the mountains of rural Lesotho, die of causes that could be prevented if they had access to antenatal care, emergency obstetric care, and skilled delivery assistance. With regard to safe deliveries, there has been a slight increase in the proportion of births attended by trained health personnel from 55% in 2004 to 61.5% in 2009. Though the progress has been very slow, it is possible that by 2015, 80% of births shall be attended to by skilled health personnel given some efforts that have already been taken. Government of Lesotho has implemented a number of policies to curb these high rates of maternal deaths. These include the adoption of the MDG Accelerated Framework (MAF) in 2011. While there are other initiatives such as the National Reproductive Health Policy (2009) refurbishment of health centres with improved maternal health facilities and integrated HIV and AIDS and reproductive health services, MAF will assist in employing evidence based information on utilizing high impact solutions to address the obstacles and impediments to achievement of this goal. Despite these endeavours, insufficient infrastructure and skilled health personnel across the country, more especially in the rural areas, have remained some of the key challenges towards meeting Goal 5. Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary Page 18 TARGET 2: Achieve, by 2015, universal access to reproductive health Indicator Contraceptive prevalence rate, married women, 15-49 Adolescent (15-19) birth rate Antenatal care coverage (at least 1 visit) Antenatal care coverage (at least 4 visits) Unmet need for family planning 2001 2004 2009 2015 36.1 37 47 80 85.2 - 20.2 90.0 69.6 30.9 19.6 92.0 70.4 23.0 100 Trend Analysis The contraceptive prevalence rate slightly increased from 36.1% in 2004 to 37% in 2004.It further improved to 47% in 2009 showing a 10 percentage point increase. Although this is a significant increase as compared to an increase between 2001 and 2004, it is unlikely that 80% target will be reached for 2015. On the other hand, the coverage of Antenatal Care (ANC) for women that attend at least one ANC visit improved from 90% in 2004 to 92% in 2009. The coverage is lower for women that attend at least four ANC visit. In 2009, the coverage increased slightly to 70.4% from 69.6% in 2004. At this rate of coverage, the 2015 target is unlikely to be achieved as shown in Figure 5.3 below. Fig. 5.3: Antenatal Care Coverage (at least one visit) 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Actual Trend In terms of family planning, the proportion of unmet needs for family planning decreased by 26% from 30.9% in 2004 to 23% in 2009 suggesting that it is unlikely that all family planning needs shall be met by 2015. This indicator reveals that more investment should be channeled towards improving family planning services as opposed to demand creation. Despite showing a decline, trends in adolescent birth rate have been unsatisfactory. There were fewer adolescent births in 2009 (19.6%) than in 2004 (20.2%) representing only a 1.4% decrease. This decline is very low given that teenage pregnancy is a major health concern because it is associated with higher maternal child mortality and morbidity and carries high risks, such as pregnancy induced hypertension, obstructed or prolonged labour, and unsafe abortion. Younger mothers are much less likely to receive antenatal care. Moreover, teen pregnancy adversely impacts long-term wellbeing, as young mothers are less likely to continue their education and find decent employment. Path to Goal Source: LDHS 2009 and 2004; EMICS 2000 Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary Page 19 Goal 6 Combat HIV & AIDS and Tuberculosis Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary Page 20 Overview HIV and AIDS has been acknowledged as one of the foremost constraints to attaining all MDGs. The epidemic hinders child and maternal health, undermines economic productivity, and impacts educational outcomes of Orphaned and Vulnerable Children (OVCs). Lesotho currently has the third highest HIV prevalence rate in the world. Target 1:Halt and begin to reverse spread of HIV and AIDS. Indicators 2004 2005 2007 HIV Prevalence among population aged 15-24 11.3 M: 6.0 F: 15.4 - - Adults (15-49) with multiple partners in the past year M: 30.4 F: 11.0 - - Condom use among adults during last high-risk sex M: 38 F18.7 - - Proportion of population aged 15-24 years (youths) with comprehensive correct knowledge of HIV and AIDS HIV+ pregnant women receiving ART for preventing MTCT 2009 9.3 M: 4.2 F: 13.6 M: 21.9 F: 6.4 M: 50.5 F: 38.5 M: 18.4 F: 25.8 - - M: 28.7 F: 38.6 2 5 25 40 2010 2011 2012 2015 - - - - - - - - - M: 80 F: 70 - - - 85% 43 51 52 97 Trend Analysis Lesotho has registered a reduction in the HIV prevalence among youth (15 – 24) from 11.3% in 2004 to 9.3% in 2009. On the other hand, prevalence among adults (14-49 years) naturally stabilized around the year 2000 and is currently at 23%13. Although HIV infection is pronounced in nearly every socio-demographic and geographic subpopulation, its impact is not homogenous. Women have a higher infection rate than men – 27% versus 18%14. HIV prevalence in urban areas is 27.2%, 13 14 LDHS, 2009. Ibid. when compared to that of rural areas at 21.1%. The increased urban prevalence may be attributed to a number of factors including rural urban migrations where most people settle in informal settlements and vulnerability to HIV is increased when they exhibit higher risk taking behaviours such as transactional sex. This does not withstand the fact that people with comprehensive knowledge had been increasing. The proportion of the population aged 15-24 years with comprehensive correct knowledge of HIV and AIDS was 25.8% among females in 2004 and 18.4% for Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary Page 21 males in the same year and increased to 38.6% for females and 28.7% for males respectively in 2009. In terms of prevention of HIV transmission from mother to child, the proportion of HIV pregnant women receiving antiretroviral treatment for preventing Mother to Child Transmission (MTCT) has increased steadily from 2% in 2004 until it reaches 52% in 2012. It is worth noting that this proportion has been increasing slower during the 20092012 period despite having shown significant increases since 2004 until 2009. With regard to behavioural change, condom use among adults during last high-risk sex and adults with multiple partners, there has been a slight improvement. Condom use among adults has slightly improved from38 to 50.5 in and 41.9 to 38.5 amongst men and women respectively during 2004-2009 period but remains low and static. In addition to this, there has also been a decline in the number of adults, both female and males, with multiple partners. Though there is a decrease in the numbers of Adults (15-49) with multiple partners in the past year, these figures are still a concern. Despite increase in comprehensive knowledge about HIV and AIDS, evidence has shown that Multiple and Concurrent Partnerships (MCP) remains the main driver of HIV. This calls for focus specifically on raising awareness about the risks of MCP in prevention strategies and in messaging efforts, such as Behaviour Change Communication (BCC). The Government of Lesotho together with its Partners has undertaken a number of efforts to prevent new infections and provide care for those who live with HIV and AIDS. These include voluntary testing and counseling, Prevention of Mother to Child Transmission (PMTCT), provision of antiretroviral and the development of the national HIV prevention strategy (2011– 2016). Fig. 6.1: HIV prevalence among adults (15 - 49 years) 1990-2015 Trend 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Sources: WHO and 2009 LDHS Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary Page 22 TARGET 2: Achieve by 2010, universal access to treatment for HIV and AIDS for all those who need it. Indicators Adult Antiretroviral coverage Child Antiretroviral coverage 2004 2005 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2015 4 16 24 48 59 58 59 80 1 11 24 19 22 24 80 Trend Analysis The country developed an ambitious scaleup plan and to accelerate uptake of ART to meet universal access targets. The proportion of the adult population in need of life saving antiretroviral who have access to antiretroviral drugs increased from 16% in 2005 to 59% in 2012. The proportion of children receiving antiretroviral drugs remains very low at 24% in 2012. There has also been a rapid scale up of the ART program with the number of adults and children receiving Highly Active Antiretroviral Treatment (HAART) from 4,678 in 2005 to 93,553 in 2012. TARGET 3: Begin to reverse the incidence of Tuberculosis and other diseases. Indicators (1990) Baseline 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 TB Prevalence/100 000 pop 249 421 513 410 408 411 TB Deaths/100 000 pop 31 83 91 90 85 94 47 (1995) 67.9 74 70 69 74 Proportion of tuberculosis cases detected and cured (success rate %) 2015 85 Trend Analysis The number of TB cases notified per 100,000 of population rose from 249 in 1990 to 513 in 2008 and declined to 411 in 2011. At this rate, it is unlikely that the target of less than 300 cases per 100,000 of population by 2015 shall be achieved. Considerable progress has however been made regarding treatment of TB cases. The proportion of TB cases that have been successfully treated has increased from 47% in 1995 to 74% in 2011. The target of 85% successful treatment of TB cases is likely to be achieved by 2015. However, the number of deaths due to TB as measured by TB deaths per 100,000 of population has increased from 83 deaths per 100,000 of population to 91 between 2007 and 2008. It Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary Page 23 declined to 90 in 2009 and further to 85 in the subsequent year. The latest figure of 2011 shows a worsening case of an increase to 94 deaths per 100,000 of population. Despite promising levels of TB treatment success rate, the HIV/TB infection together with the growing numbers of Multi-Drug Resistance (MDR) TB remains a challenge. In response, Lesotho will train more health workers on collaborative TB/HIV care, support the district level TB/HIV technical working groups, and work towards response harmonization with other SADC countries. It will also engage more private practitioners as partners in implementing of the TB/HIV strategy. Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary Page 24 Goal 7 Ensure Environmental Sustainability Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary Page 25 Overview Strong environmental management is essential for long term sustainable development and poverty reduction. Environmental degradation and climate change issues are particularly critical for Lesotho because its economy is dependent on subsistence, rain-fed agriculture and natural resource exports. Lesotho’s planning path hinges on environmentally sensitive activities such as mining, large infrastructure, the garment industry, and agriculture. Key areas of concern include land degradation, water, sanitation, biodiversity, climate change, energy, and environmental governance. TARGET 1: Integrate the principles of sustainable development principles into policies and programmes and reduce of environmental resources and biodiversity indicators 2001 2004 2009 2011 Total biomass for Cooking 66 62.3 51.3 53.93 Total biomass for heating 67.1 - 57.5 51.7 1.37% 1.40% 1.44% 1.63% Endangered Species - - - 3 Protected land area - - - 0.4 636000 - - 805000 0.35 - - 0.43 Forestry coverage CO2 Emissions, total (tonnes) CO2 per capita (tones) Trend Analysis Biomass is the dominant form of energy in Lesotho being used by 53.93% of households for cooking needs and 51.7% for heating needs. Further analysis shows that consumption of biomass is higher in rural areas. In 2011, 71.3% of rural households used wood as the primary fuel for cooking compared to 8% in urban areas and the disparity is similar for cooking not withstanding that small area covered by forest. Since 2000, forest area has remained very small but has slightly increased from 1.37% to 1.63% of total land area in 2013. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List specifies only one animal species in Lesotho as critically endangered – the Maluti minnow – while two are endangered (white-tailed mouse and long-toed tree frog) and 11 others are vulnerable to extinction. Republic of South Africa and Lesotho partnered in 2001 to create the Maloti-Drakensberg Transfrontier Conservation and Development Program, which incorporated 5170 km2 on the Lesotho side, including Sehlabathebe National Park. Other areas include Ts’ehlanyane National Park (56 km2) in the North, the Bokong Reserve (19.7 km2) and Lets’eng-la-Letsie (4.34km2) following its recognition by the Ramsar Convention in 2004. As one of the small economies, Lesotho is not a large CO2 emitter. The First National Communication to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change reports 636,000 metric tonnes of emissions (not including land use change and forestry) for 1994 – all from the energy sector15. This figure steadily increased to 805,000 in 2000. 15 Ministry of Natural Resources, National Report on Climate Change, April 2000. Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary Page 26 Figure 7.2: Forestry Coverage in Lesotho Fig 7.2 Biomass Consumed in Tonnes 800000 750000 700000 650000 600000 550000 500000 450000 400000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Wood Source: FAO 2010 Shrubs Dung+Crop Waste Source: 2011 Lesotho Environment and Energy Statistics Report, Department of Energy 2013 TARGET 2: Halve the proportion of households without sustainable access to improved drinking water and sanitation. Indicator 2001 2004 2009 2011 2015 Proportion of household with improved water Proportion of household with improved sanitation 80.6 (1995) 55.8 78.9 82 91 24 50.9 24 55 62 Trend Analysis In 2011, 82% of households were using an improved drinking water source, with major regional disparities. Roughly 91% of urban households versus 74% of rural households use safe water sources16. Also, 32% of rural households must travel more than 30 minutes to access safe water compared to 11% for urban families. About 55% of households are using an improved sanitation facility – 26% and 22% for urban and rural areas, respectively.17 It appears that urban sanitation coverage has drastically declined, which can be explained both by inter- 16 17LDHS, LDHS, 2009. Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary 2009. Page 27 year differences in data collection and ruralurban migration From analysis of the two targets above, it is apparent that Lesotho’s primary challenge is Land degradation which is mostly driven by heavy reliance on biomass and poor agricultural practices. This poor land management practices causes sedimentation and impact on river ecosystems and water quality since land and water are integrated systems. To address the above mentioned challenges the government of Lesotho with Millennium Challenge Cooperation, World Bank and other Bilateral Donors has financed the Metolong Dam and water supply programme which are envisaged to increase access of water also in connection with sanitation MCC and EU have provided funding for VIP latrine construction and various water and sanitation projects respectively. With regard to protected area and wetlands the Government of Lesotho has embarked on Rehabilitation and Restoration of Wetlands at 3 Pilot areas. Fig. 7.3 Proportion of Households with Improved Water 100 90 80 70 60 50 Urban Rural Source: LDHS 2009, LDHS 2004, LDS 2001 Fig. 7.4 Proportion of Households with Improved Sanitation 60 50 40 30 20 10 Total Urban 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 0 Rural Sources: 2009 LDHS, 2004 LDHS, 2001 LDS, CMS 2011 Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary Page 28 Goal 8 Global Partnership for Development Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary Page 29 Overview Goal 8 addresses the way developed countries can assist developing countries in achieving the MDGs through development assistance, market access, foreign investment, and access to critical technologies and innovation. Total net ODA comprises grants or loans to developing countries for economic and social development from Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Development Assistance Committee (DAC) members. TARGET 1: Address the special needs of least developed countries Indicators 2000 2005 2008 2010 2011 Net ODA to Lesotho – total (USD millions) 37 67.49 143.8 256 264.58 Net ODA to Lesotho – per capita (USD) 20 36 118 121 Net ODA to Lesotho – as a proportion of GNI 3.76% 3.63% 6.74% 10.04% 9% Proportion of ODA allocated to social services 60.4%(2002) 81.80% 87.64% 91.12% - Trend Analysis Net ODA to Lesotho from all donors (including multilateral institutions) more than doubled in 2010 to $256 million ($118.01 per capita) which is 10% of GNI. In 2011, net ODA to Lesotho only increased to $265 million($120.6 per capita) which is 9% of GNI. However, Assistance is still far below the commitment of 0.7% of GNI made by development partners and the UN at the 2005 Gleneagles Summit reflecting that Donors are regressing on their ODA commitments to least developed countries. Therefore, overall ODA will likely decrease and stabilize at normal levels in subsequent years. Another indicator under target one is the proportion of ODA allocated to Social services which has steadily increased over the past decade from 60% in 2002 to over 90% in 2010. A high proportion allocated to social services is indicative of the inclusiveness of ODA for all segments of the population and ensures the use of donor funding for basic human development in education, primary health care, nutrition, and water and sanitation. Figure 8.1: Net Official Development Assistance to Lesotho 1990-2011 300 250 200 150 100 50 ODA to Lesotho (current USD, millions) 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 0 ODA to Lesotho (constant 2011 USD, millions) Source: OECD Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary Page 30 TARGET 2:Develop an open, rule-based, non-discriminatory trading and financial system Indicators 2000 Proportion of exports to developed countries admitted 11% free of duty Proportion of ODA allocated to 6.66%(20 build trade capacity 02) Foreign Direct Investment into 224.47 Lesotho (million maloti) 2005 2008 2010 2011 2012 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 3.16% 1.05% 0.32% - - 482.2 1583.53 1274.64 1422.24 1593.69 Trend Analysis Due to duty-free and quota-free access to the U.S. through Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and free trade agreements with the EU, SACU and SADC, 100% of exports to developed economies have been admitted free of duty since 2002. Passing of AGOA has spurred a booming textile sector in Lesotho, creating thousands of jobs. Exports constituted 43% and 46.8% of the GDP in real prices in 2010 and 2011 respectively. With regard to aid for trade, ODA to Lesotho has focused on infrastructure, agriculture, trade policy and regulation, industrial development and tourism. The proportion of ODA allocated for trade capacity has fallen considerably from 9% in 2003 to less than 1% in 2010 due to increased funding towards HIV and AIDS programmes amongst other reasons. The global financial crisis triggered a decline in FDI from M5383.53m in 2008 to M1274.64m in 2010. In 2011 and 2012 FDI increased to M1422.24m and M1593.69m18 respectively as a result of a number of initiatives such as the development of industrial infrastructure. To attract FDI, efforts are already being taken by LNDC with support of the Southern Africa Trade Hub to diversify markets. Continued investment in industrial infrastructure and the Metolong water project should also attract further FDI. Figure 8.2: Net Foreign Direct Investment (million maloti) 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 18Central Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary Bank of Lesotho Page 31 TARGET 3: Make new technologies available, especially information and communications Indicators 2000 2005 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 Fixed telephone lines per 100 people Mobile subscribers per 100 people Internet users per 100 people 1.13 0.35 0.22 2.08 11.19 2.84 2.53 25.67 4.05 2.05 41.62 4.45 2 53.62 2 70 3 84 13 Trend Analysis There has been a significant penetration of communication services in Lesotho, particularly with respect to mobile networks. The sector has realized increased subscription for both voice and internet services, increased coverage and wider choice of communication services which contribute towards bridging the digital divide. Teledensity for mobile telephony has increased exponentially from around 1% in 2000 to 84% in March 2013 (figure 8.10). On the contrary, the growth of fixed telephony has largely remained stagnant with teledensity at 3% in March 2013 compared to 1% in 2000. This stagnation in fixed telephony is characteristic of most developing countries. Like in most African countries, penetration on Internet access and services in Lesotho has progressed very slowly. Exorbitant prices, slow and unreliable connectivity have been the key factors that hindered Internet penetration. However, this is bound to change now that Lesotho sources international bandwidth through the East African Submarine System (EASSy) project. Participation in this project was intended to bridge the digital divide through introduction of cheaper and high capacity bandwidth connectivity. The Lesotho Internet Exchange Point (LIXP) has also been established to address high costs of internet connectivity. The facility is intended to enable improved domestic speeds, efficient use of international bandwidth, reduced costs and make savings on foreign exchange. Figure. 8.10: Lesotho ICT Access, 2000-2012 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 0.00 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 fixed telephone lines per 100 mobile lines per 100 internet users per 100 Sources: Lesotho Communications Authority; International Telecommunications Union A herd boy at the cattle post near USF tower Semena (ThabaTseka) on his mobile phone, he can now keep in touch with the Herd Owner and police in cases of disaster and stock theft. Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary Page 32 TARGET 4: Provide affordable access to essential drugs in developing countries Indicator 2007 2010 Availability of essential medicines 74% 77.7% Trend analysis Lesotho is committed to “making available to its population safe, effective, good quality, affordable medicines in both Public and private sector” as stated in the National Medicines Policy. It is in this context that in November 2009, a nationwide study on the availability, procurement, distribution and use of a selection of medicines in Lesotho was conducted. As shown in Table 8.1 below, the results of the survey revealed 77.7% average availability of essential medicines at hospitals.This represents an increase of 3.7% from the 74% availability during the 2007 survey. However Access to essential medicines is affected by availability of the medicines at health facilities, their affordability, as well as the distance to the facility. Table 8.1: Medicine Access in Lesotho 2007 2010 Availability of Indicator Medicines (All) 74% 77.7% Availability of Indicator Medicines (GoL) 74.5% 80.3% Availability of Indicator Medicines (CHAL) 74.7% 74.7% Overall Availability of TB medicines 78% 80.7% Overall Availability of STI medicines 78% 79% - 69.6% 7 17 - 13 - 23 40% 57.7% - 143.7 HOSPITALS Overall Availability of ARVs Average Out-of-Stock days for Indicator Medicines (All Hospitals) Average Out-of-Stock days for Indicator Medicines (GoL Hospitals) Average Out-of-Stock days for Indicator Medicines (CHAL Hospitals) HEALTH CENTERS Availability of Indicator Medicines Average Out-of-Stock days for Indicator Medicines Source: MOHSW, 2010 Medicine Access Survey Millennium Development Goals - Status Report - Summary Page 33