Simon Ross - Population Matters
Presentation to the
British Society for Population Studies
Annual Conference 2011
Population Matters 135-137 Station Road, London E4 6AG +44(0)20 8123 9116 www.populationmatters.org enquiries@populationmatters.org
Patrons: Sir David Attenborough OM CH CVO CBE ● Professor Sir Partha Dasgupta ● Professor Paul Erhlich ● Dr Jane Goodall OBE ● Professor John Gullebaud ●
Susan Hampshire OBE
● Dr James Lovelock CBE ● Professor Audrey Manning OBE ● Professor Norman Myers CMG ● Chris Packham ● Sara Parkin OBE ●
Jonathan Pomitt CBE
● Lionel Shriver ● Sir Crispin Tickell GCMG KCVO
Population Matters is the working name of the Optimum Population Trust. Regd. charity no. 1114109. Regd. company no. 3019081. Regd. office as above.

• Population size is an environmental factor
• We can do something about it
• It is complementary to other strategies
1804:1bn 1927:2bn 1960:3bn 1974:4bn 1987:5bn 1999:6bn 2011:7bn
Slide 2

“Sustainability is the capacity to endure. In ecology, the word describes how biological systems remain diverse and productive over time.
Long-lived and healthy wetlands and forests are examples of sustainable biological systems. For humans, sustainability is the potential for long-term maintenance of well being, which has environmental, economic, and social dimensions, and encompasses the concept of stewardship, the responsible planning and management of resources.” - Wikipedia
Slide 3
Sustainability means for ever

Million
300
250
A seven fold increase surely has consequences
200
150
100
50
37.5
0
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
274.9
20
50
Slide 4

• When Pakistan gained its independence, the nation was about 33 percent covered in forests. The government's own figures show that tree cover is now just 4 percent of Pakistan's land surface.
• The country has lost a quarter of its natural forest cover over the past two decades and is currently experiencing a deforestation rate of 2 percent a year.
• “The depletion of forests in Pakistan is quite alarming. If the situation does not change soon they will disappear in 20 to 25 years."
• The principal cause is the consumption of fuel wood and timber . This consumption is expected to increase in line with the growth of population projected at about 3 per cent a year.
• Between 1945 and 1986, the number of cattle almost doubled, while the number of buffaloes, sheep and goats more than tripled. The overall livestock numbers continue to increase at a rate of two per cent per year.
• The loss of forest habitat has had a severe impact on Pakistan's biodiversity and has serious implications for the nation's other natural and agro-ecosystems.
• Deforestation made destruction caused by this summer's massive floods measurably worse.
Reservoirs in the country have suffered capacity losses of 23 percent on average, all from siltation. Barrages [dams] have significantly lost their design capacity due to deposition of silt loads. The loss of dense woodland made stream and river banks much more prone to erosion.
Riverside forests that could have stemmed the force of raging floodwater were gone.
• Officials failed to prevent populations from sprouting up in the areas designated as flood control zones.
Slide 5

• It is a mistake to think that low income populations have no environmental impact
• Fishing, and hunting for bush meat
• Killing wildlife to protect crops
• Deforestation for fuel and timber
• Overexploitation of soil
• Atmospheric soot from cooking fires
Slide 6

• “The unprecedented drive for wealth and well-being of the past 40 years is putting unsustainable pressures on our planet
…Humanity's Ecological Footprint exceeds the Earth's biocapacity - the area actually available to produce renewable resources and absorb CO2 by 50 percent” WWF
•
Biodiversity
– ” … the current species extinction rate is between 1,000 and 10,000 times higher than it would naturally be. The main drivers…are converting natural areas to farming and urban development, introducing invasive alien species, polluting or overexploiting resources…and harvesting wild plants and animals at unsustainable levels.” IUCN
•
Climate change
– “The Earth’s surface has warmed by more than 0.75°C since around 1900, with much of this warming occurring in the past 50 years. The IPCC concluded it is very likely (more than 90% probability) that most of the observed global warming since the mid-20th century is due to the observed increase in humancaused greenhouse gas (GHG).” DECC
Emissions at record level. IEA
•
Food
– “925m are undernourished in 2010” FAO;
Productivity declining UNEP
• Housing – A billion people live in slums UN
• Water – 1.6bn live in areas of physical water scarcity – In many high-intensity foodproducing regions, water limits are already being “reached or breached.” They include the plains of northern China, India’s Punjab and the western United States. UNEP
Slide 7

•
Population
– 2011-85: 7-10bn;
43% increase UN
•
Consumption
– “By 2025, six major emerging economies—Brazil, China, India,
Indonesia, South Korea, and Russia
—will account for more than half of all global growth” World Bank
• Biodiversity “…by 2050, a considerable number of species extinctions will have taken place. Existing large blocks of tropical forest will be much reduced and fragmented… Marine ecosystems will be very different from today's, with few large marine predators, and freshwater biodiversity will be severely reduced almost everywhere.” UNEP website “Annual cost of biodiversity loss by 2050 14 trillion
Euros.” EU
• Climate change “…there is a high risk of global warming well beyond a 2 °C increase since preindustrial times. This …could lead to severe, and possibly irreversible, damage to ecosystems and natural processes.” DECC
• Water reserves are being significantly depleted while demand is expected to rise by
30% by 2030.
• Fossil fuel reserves are declining rapidly while effective alternatives are limited.
•
Food demand will rise by 70% by 2050 FAO; supply is threatened by above factors and by development, overexploitation and pollution.
Slide 8

• Biodiversity – alternative materials; reservations
• Climate change – renewables; (nuclear); smart meters; insulation
• Food – reduce waste; less meat; (intensification); (GM foods); (virgin lands) “availability of good agricultural land is limited” FoE
• Water – reduce waste; improve storage and aquifer use; desalination
• Fossil fuels – (biofuels), (shale/ fracking) etc.
• Conclusion: Solutions often face obstacles or cause other problems
• Technological spread/ advances unlikely to be sufficient, though we should welcome them
Slide 9

• Per capita emissions vary widely - US 18mtc; UK 9mtc; much of
Africa negligible CDIAC; Proposition of reducing individual consumption in developed countries – eat less, travel less, buy less
• Achievable?
1. “The second scenario…would mean a substantial cut in food consumption in some countries and a big increase in others.” Agrimonde; 2. “Clearly we need to reduce resource consumption … by a factor of 10 if we are to live within environmental limits and share resources fairly between the World’s growing populations.” Friends of the Earth
• Impact?
– Even if this reduction happens, increasing per capita consumption is happening at pace in developing world e.g. BRIC countries, including move to much less efficient meat based diet
• Conclusion: Average per capita consumption will probably rise
• Behavioural change may not happen and is unlikely to be sufficient, though we should welcome it
Slide 10

• Agreed - UN Millennium Development Goal 5b -
Universal access to reproductive health
• Acceptable - Users typically want contraception
• Available - Proven and safe technology
• Affordable Providing FP access for over 200m women costs £3.6bn pa; equivalent to an intergovernmental loan. Less than the savings achievable through lowering population growth
• Urgent Need to supply record youth numbers
Slide 11

• Other strategies reduce birth rates and should be encouraged:
– Maternal and newborn health
– Gender empowerment
– Social development
– Urbanisation
– Education
• However, this does not mean we do not also need family planning services
Slide 12

• Gender equality – enabling women to manage their own fertility empowers them
• Maternal and child health – later, less frequent pregnancy aids health generally
• Social justice – Fewer children frees up resources for investment in development
• Technological advance – Fewer children encourages the adoption of new technologies
• Behavioural change – A smaller family is the best environmental behavioural change
Slide 13
Family planning makes everything easier

Algeria
Brazil
Iran
Thailand
1980-85
6.5
3.8
6.5
3.0
2005-10
2.4
1.9
1.8
1.6
Slide 14

World population allocated according to their country’s average fertility
Over 3 kids
18%
Under 2 kids
42%
2 to 3 kids
40%
UN
Slide 15

Nigeria
Yemen
Pakistan
Philippines
1980-85
6.8
9.2
6.4
4.9
2005-10
5.6
5.5
3.7
3.3
Slide 16

Billion World population projections
15.8
14
10 10.1
+1/2 child
Medium
-1/2 child
6.9
6
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
60
20
70
20
80
20
90
21
00
UN
Slide 17
6.2

• Problems are global; we cannot simply be concerned with the UK.
• Responsibility is local; we have to put our own house in order if we are to speak on the issue
• Consumption by the UK is almost three times higher than our sustainable production. We achieve this through imports and by depleting non-renewable resources. GFN
• Population density in England is higher than for any other major European country UN
• See conference poster for public attitude to this
Slide 18

(000)
UK – Births exceed deaths; immigration exceeds emigration
UK population growth is at a fifty year high
900 The UK TFR of
2.0 is at a near forty year high
700
500
300
20
01
/2
20
02
/3
20
03
/4
20
04
/5
Natural differential
Births
Deaths
Immigration
20
05
/6
20
06
/7
Migration differential
20
07
/8
Emigration
20
08
/9
20
09
/1
0
ONS
1 in 4 births in
E & W is to a woman born abroad 2010
(London 1 in 2)
Slide 19
The UK accounts for one third of EU population growth

• “The (National Housing) Federation warned the housing market will be plunged into an unprecedented crisis as it forecast steep rises in the private rental sector, huge social housing waiting lists, and a house price boom – all fuelled by a chronic under-supply of homes .” “There is a simple and straightforward answer: build more homes.”
• Single person households are certainly part of the cause, but aren’t open to an obvious solution
• Might it just be that there is a chronic over-supply of people ? That the simple and straightforward answer is to reduce the birth rate and immigration?
Slide 20

• Amenities England’s Areas of Outstanding Natural
Beauty under siege from damaging developments
• Biodiversity - The number of endangered animals in the
UK has doubled over the past 10 years
• Congestion – Already costs economy £20bn pa
• Planning – Choosing population or enviroment
• Resources – Rising demand for water, energy and food is increasingly posing supply challenges
• Population – projected to grow by a further 10m in the
15 years between 2008 and 2033. ONS
Slide 21
Population growth doesn’t make Britain a better place

• Better sexual education and health – one in five UK pregnancies are terminated; highest teenage pregnancy rate in Europe
• Improved childhood/ life chances – British children least happy in 21 nation study UNICEF/ one million NEETs DfE
• Appropriate fiscal policies – use tax/ benefits to support the “two or fewer” message
• Social marketing – the UK has one of the highest fertility rates in Europe and it is rising: make the environmental case for “two or fewer”
Slide 22
The UK government has never said “Fewer is better”

• International agreements should be observed:
– Right to asylum; EU freedom of movement
• Migration is global issue - up 40% in 10 yrs IOM
• Illegal settlement must be tackled
• Fraud reduced in asylum, marriage, students
• Ross border arranged marriages unjustified
• Unjustified employment should be reduced
– We should train our 2.5m unemployed, not exploit the training of other countries and denude them of skills
– If we import workers, just issue short-term visas
Slide 23

• “… diverting resources from more effective policies…” – In fact, population concern strategies are low cost, demonstrably effective and complement other policies
• “… encouraging racism and conflict …”
– In fact, population concern strategies reduce racism and conflict by reducing competition for limited resources
Slide 24

• Populations are ageing, as we live longer and as the fertility rate falls
• We have to make a temporary adjustment to greater longevity and lower fertility
• A high birth or immigration rate makes us less sustainable in the long run
• We should respond by working longer and welcoming lower childcare costs
Slide 25

• Birth rates can change, as is evident; migration rates can change more quickly
• Resulting population numbers are slower to change: but that is a good reason to start now
• Other environmental responses are not necessarily faster: “The long timescales involved in many of the engineering-based projects required to meet these challenges…mean that if action is not taken before a crisis point is reached there will be significant human hardship.” Institute of Mechanical Engineers
• Urgency doesn’t mean issues are soluble in short term
• Scale of the challenge means all positive contributions to reducing our impact should be pursued
Slide 26

both
and
Slide 27
2011:7bn 2025:8bn 2045:9bn 2085:10bn simon.ross@populationmatters.org