Our emerging approach to
agricultural development
October 18, 2006
Rajiv Shah, MD
Director, Agricultural Development
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
Who We Are
Bill and Melinda Gates believe every life has equal value.
In 2000, they created the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
to help reduce inequities in the United States and around
the world.
Two values lie at
the core of the
foundation’s work:
- All lives—no matter
where they are
being led—have
equal value.
- To whom much has
been given, much is
expected.
Foundation History, Results, and Learning
Grant making To Date:
Core Challenges:
• Strategic risk taking
• Role of partnerships
• Learning through
successes and
through failures
Select Results:
•
1 million children's lives saved by GAVI
immunization effort
• 12,911 scholarships supported to date
•
48,000 HIV+ patients in Botswana receiving
treatment through ACHAP
• 4.2 million condoms distributed by Avahan in India
• 1,123 new, affordable housing units due to Sound
Families Initiative
Our Approach to Agricultural Development
- Initial observations
- Development
- Inequity
- Lessons learned
- Science and
technology
- Perspective of the
small farmer
- Rural development
- Our approach
- The problem
- Initial strategy
- Vision of success
Our strategy:
- Focus on a target market
- Strategic initiatives
- Data, policy and advocacy
- Market access
- Input utilization
- Science and technology
- Build partnerships for scale and
success
- Invest, measure, learn and
recalibrate
- Share results and listen to outside
voices
Target Market:
The state of undernourishment today
Approximate number of
undernourished in developing world:
0.83 billion
Undernourishment: Defined as “consuming too little food to maintain normal levels of activity”
(WDI 2006).
According to FAO undernourishment occurs at calorie consumption below 1,900 calories a day.
Map is based on WDI 2006 and United Nations Populations Prospects Database (2004
Revision)
Underlying population data represents 2005; undernourishment data represents 2000 - 2004
Target Market: Many key trends are not moving
in the right direction
Crop yields and agricultural output in SSA
is not keeping up with population growth or
productivity in other parts of the world.
Maize yield (Hg/Ha)
100000
80000
World
South Asia
Sub-Saharan
North America
- Over the last 15
years the number of
Africans living below
the poverty line
($1/day) has
increased by 50%
- It is estimated that
CAGR = 2.15%
almost 200 million
people in Africa, or
over one-third of the
population, suffers
from hunger
60000
CAGR = 2.13%
40000
20000
CAGR = 1.60%
CAGR = 0.7%
0
1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001
- In the past five years
alone, the number of
underweight children
in Africa has risen by
approximately 12%
(IFPRI, 2005)
Example: Promoting Access to Markets
Goal: Demonstrate scaleable models
of improving small holder farmer
access to markets in order to double
2005 adoption rates of improved
technologies and improve farm
income and household welfare
Early activities:
- RFP issued
-1300 concept notes reviewed
Early thinking on strategy:
- Both demand and supplydriven strategies are needed
- Farmers need access to
relevant information and
local exchanges
- Unique approach at each
market level: local, province,
nation, region, OECD
- Must be responsive to each
unique environment
Example: Develop and improve the
utilization of new input technologies
Crop improvement
Create improved crop varieties
suitable for the drought, disease,
insect and soil fertility stresses of
Africa and Asia in order to double
attainable yield in selected key crops
Distribution channels
Invest in seed
multiplication and
distribution strategies
Example: Program for Africa’s Seed Systems
Government
Registration
Multiplication
Genomics
Gene Banks
Global
Breeding
Local Variety
Breeding
Breeding crops for Africa
Training breeders
Public Sector/
NGA Distribution
SME Bulk-up
Quality Control
Packaging
Public
Channels
Planting
Harvest
Foundation Seed
Private Sector
Registration
Multiplication
Activity
Bulk-up
Quality Control
Packaging
SME
Marketing
Distribution
Private
Channels
Expected Results
- 100 improved crop varieties in 5 years
- Variety gap closed in 15 years
- Training 50 PhD and 179 MSc crop scientists
Improving seed production
and distribution
- Small-medium sized seed companies distributing improved seed to
farmers through 20,000 trained and certified agro-dealers
- Improved seed planted on more than 1 million hectares, roughly 80%
of produced by small-medium seed companies
- Supporting public extension as appropriate
Improving seed system
policies
- Alleviating bottlenecks such as licensing and regulatory approval
- Advocating for change
- 50% increase in land area cultivated with improved seed, leading to
Monitoring and evaluating
impact
lower risk and 30% higher yields
- Quantify impact on poverty and hunger
Building an integrated approach for Africa
AFRICAN GREEN REVOLUTION ALLIANCE (AGRA)
Major Initiatives
2006
2011
2016
Develop effective seed system
(PASS)
Major
initiatives
Link farmers to improved and
equitable output markets (at
scale)
Improve use of other inputs:
fertilizer and irrigation
Agricultural education & training
Policy and political advocacy/support (ongoing)
Build capacity to be results-oriented, and begin to show impact
Advocacy
Strategy
Build key political and operational stakeholder support
Attract major public and private financing to scale and sustain renewed African
Green Revolution
Early Learnings and Key Questions
Early Learnings
Key Questions
Strategic focus and willingness to take
risks will be key to our learning and impact
Correct strategic focus? Who are the
best strategic partners?
Strong advocacy is necessary so others
play the roles required for success
What is the appropriate role for others
(business, governments, donors, etc)?
An input strategy must be led by a market
demand strategy
What are the best ways to link farmers
to markets without increasing their
risk?
Complimentary inputs (seed, water,
fertilizer) are critical
What is the appropriate business
model for developing and delivering
key inputs?
Crop science offers great promise
What are the most effective ways to
invest in product development?