International Seminar on Early Warning
and Business Cycle Indicators
14 - 16 December 2009
Scheveningen, The Netherlands
GDP estimates and indicators constraints:
experience of Moroccan Kingdom
Abderrahmane Kacemi
Morocco
Introduction
 Tracking and analysing the current economic situation, any where in the
world, are today dependent on reliable synthetic high frequency statistics,
available within the shortest time possible.
 If the low frequency data constituted, for a long time, the necessary tool of
the analysis and policy decisions making in Morocco, as it is the case in
many countries, it is because the economic evolution worked in the same
logical way of this periodicity.
 The limited means of communication, the geographically and functionally
restricted financial markets made that the economic issues, requiring
solutions, were relatively adapted to the medium and long term tendencies,
etc. Accordingly, a statistical system of annual reference has been built
making it possible therefore to get information and to pass to decision
making.
Currently, with:
the financial and economic crises which follow one another and the
development of the transactions and transmissions, Moroccan policymakers
are convinced that:
 Analysis of the conjuncture,
 Anticipatory expectations based on tools of short term forecasting,
 Business cycles, dated Turning points of the activity,
All based on the availability of synthetic and relevant short term data, allow
tracking and controlling the economic situation and enable designing policies
facing shocks that could have thereafter dramatic impacts on the overall
activities in the country.
The problem is crucial when it is a concern of synthetic data reflecting a
coherent framework of relationships between various categories of information
such as the national accounting.
National Accounts
Moroccan statistical system is still much more annual periodicity aspect
than low frequency one. Big efforts have been done over the ten last
years to construct first of all a set of macroeconomic aggregates from a
reliable comprehensive system of national accounts.
National Accounts make use of the almost annual economic statistics as
well as of a broad range of social and demographic statistics and thus
allow performing suitable and relevant synthetic annual indicators:
 Morocco carried out the modernization of its national accounting by
implementing the SNA 1993.
 This work led to the development of the complete sequence of the accounts
and synthesis tables.
 Those were elaborated in a great detail which was allowed by the collection
and the treatment of a great number of statistical and countable data from
different sources.
A system of the annual national accounts is operational.
They are carried out annually and cover:
 The balance of the goods and services;
 Accounts of industries;
 Accounts of the institutional sectors;
 The supplies and uses table;
 The integrated economic accounts table;
 The financial transactions table;
 The 2007 world financial crisis in USA affected the real activity of the
Moroccan economy. The three large channels by which the first signals of
this crisis were felt are the fast decelerations followed by recessions of the
exports, the transfers of the abroad Moroccan community and the travel
receipts of tourists, in spite of a favourable unemployment rate thanks to the
role of agriculture and of a positive financial behaviour due to the financial
system relatively well protected.
 These indicators delivered the first signals of acute and persistent falls since
the beginning of the year 2008, whereas the turndown of the GDP started
practically until the fourth quarter 2008, due to a good agricultural
campaign in this year, which is large delay given the extent of the crisis.
Thus, estimating a flash GDP without agriculture would be a significant
indicator to predict early crisis and sustain the economic growth .
 So, strengthening the process of producing the flash GDP became necessary
and currently an ongoing work is undertaken and will be forthcoming
operational accordingly to the needs of the instruments of the policy making.
 Actually, the quarterly GDP, as the best composite indicator, is released
initially, by the National Institute of the conjuncture analysis (INAC), as a first
estimate one month after the reference quarter (t), used as a leading indicator,
relying on the series of the quarterly accounts available until the previous
quarter, carried out by the National Accounts Institution, on the business
confidence survey in the industrial and construction sectors, on partial
operative data suitable and available in many economic branches and on
modelling techniques.
 In the same time, this institute releases the forecast for the next quarter (t+1).
This GDP estimate is considered as leading indicator so it is not disseminated
at a large scale, but only in the conjuncture report.
 Then, the preliminary GDP is produced ninety days after the reference
quarter, by the National Accounts Institution according to the SNA93, on the
basis of the observations of this quarter not necessary finalised. Thereafter,
the GDP is revised later when estimating the preliminary GDP of the next
quarter and also at the time of the consistency with the annual accounts.
 The estimate of the flash GDP (i.e. at t+45), according to SNA93, is an urgent
purpose for us in order to follow up the financial and economic events within
the shortest possible time.
 Efforts are concentrated on targeting the adequate indicators, the data
collection, and the extension of these accounts to other approaches
(expenditure, institutional sectors, income)rather than only that of production.
 Industrial production Index is currently becoming monthly in accordance with
the requirements of the SDDS (Special Dissemination of Data Standards).
 Quarterly consumer sentiment survey is operational,
 Monthly Consumer price index and production price index exist since longtime.
 Quarterly employment survey release data on employment by activities one
month after the reference quarter.
 Preliminary GDP from the production side is obtained by adding together
value added of 30 branches of the economy at the basis prices plus net taxes
on products and imports. The quarterly GDP is calculated at current prices,
constants prices of previous year and linked prices with 1998 as base year.
 Adopted methodology to compile the Quarterly National Accounts, by this
the GDP, is the benchmarking method based on the mathematical
techniques and econometric modelling based the regression approach to
derive output and intermediate consumption using simple or composite
coincident indicators having similar behaviour as the annual aggregate then
calculating added value of the reference quarter.
 These coincident indicators are initially adjusted seasonally and the
components of cycle-tendency, seasonal and irregular performed separately
after which a relation between these annualized indicators and the annual
aggregate is estimated by econometric modelling methods.
 On one hand, Moroccan economy is characterized by a great and volatile
agricultural sector and an important underground sector influential in the
economic activity. Unfortunately, they do not have short term indicators and
thus a part of the fluctuations of the GDP remains unknown
 On the other hand, the services sector become more and more extensive and
strongly affects the fluctuations and the growth. However, there is no
sufficient short term information which allows the follow-up and taking into
account the movements related to these services. Except finances,
communications, hotels and catering, and partially transport, the other
market services are considered using synthetic or indirect indicators tied
with the fields concerned, but, in the same time, able to contain some
inadequacy and consequently not reflecting roughly the fluctuations of the
targeted aggregates.
 With the deficiency of indicators in many fields for instance rent, road
transport, etc … several quarterly aggregates are determined by smoothing
annual aggregates. Other indicators pose problem of the cash mode recording
like the expenditure of the administrations, the taxes, the foreign trade, etc…,
consequently the fluctuations of the GDP are likely to be skewed.